2009 NFL Week 10 Picks

Before I get to the week 10 picks here is a running log of last weekend’s sabbatical weekend:

Saturday, 6AM – My kids have early soccer games today (8AM, 9AM and 9:30AM), so I am up early putting the final touches on my game-plan for my team’s game. The team is so wretchedly bad that we have scored one goal in seven games and suffered Tina Turner-like beatings of 9-0, 7-0 and 8-1. But we have started to come around during the last two games, only losing 5-1 and 6-0. We play our last beatable toady of the season today, so it’s like our Super Bowl or better yet, World Cup Championship.

The sabbatical was put in place for a couple specific reasons, first was to shield myself from the Sunday afternoon torture of watching my fantasy teams lose (I know, it’s irrational, but I don’t feel good about my fantasy team unless I have the high score every week). Imagine that you have to die from being eaten by an animal, would you want to be eaten to death by ants or have a shark bite your head off? Exactly, the shark is like showing Monday morning finding out I lost my games when Matt Schuab crapped his pants repeatedly.

The second reason for the sabbatical is to avoid a potentially painful loss by one of my teams. The Cardinals are the most likely to suffer this type of loss, but really it’s the Cardinals we’re talking about so is there really such a thing a painful loss? The Huskers play the Sooners, but again this team has numbed me to big losses against good opponents over the last decade.

If you add all that up, what you get thinly veiled bartering against the Sabbatical after a mere six hours.

Saturday, 11:30AM – Well, if the soccer results are any indication of the football weekend ahead, the sabbatical will likely save me some jail time. My team lost 2-0! Let’s see if I can put the loss into football terms, imagine your favorite football team just played a game where they:

• Had 12 penalties for 150 yards (we shot our self in the foot with poor play)
  
• Turned the ball over four times, three of them deep in our opponents territory and the fourth was returned for a touchdown (their first goal was soft, misplay by our goalie and the second, our goalie ran out screaming, “I got it, I got it” as her teammate executed a perfect pass to the opponent in front of an open goal)
  
• Held a 2 to 1 time of possession advantage (the ball was in our opponents territory practically the entire game)
  
• Missed two field goals in the final 4 minutes that would have given us a win (literally we missed a wide open net at least three times)
  

 

Now if you just watched your football team execute the above, tell me you’re not about to go on a 12 state killing spree with a pick axe.

 

I’m bored and since there is nothing else to do, I think I will take a nap.

 

Saturday, 1:45PM – We head to lunch at, of all places, a sports bar. Since my family is clearly testing me to see if I will fall for the bait, I insist on sitting outside where there are no TVs.

Saturday, 2:30PM – We head to the barstool store for some Saturday afternoon shopping. I am thinking right now, how much I wish I had attended a college keg party last night, so when asked to do a shot from the “beer bong”, I could reply, “I can’t, I have a big day planned tomorrow. We are heading to the barstool and dinette store, followed by a trip to Kohl’s and maybe, if we have time, Bed Bath and Beyond.”

Two bits of bad news – we (yea, “we” like them) find barstools. And who knew this place would have a TV tuned to a college football game. Ohio State and Penn State tied at 7, let me look at the ticke. . . Uh oh, my oldest daughter just caught me.

The good news they are reasonably priced and I am building enough good will out of this weekend to last me the rest of the football season.

Saturday, 3:15PM – Back home and while everyone is admiring the new barstools, what is the harm in knowing a few college football scores? So, I sneak off to the computer to check some scores. Wow, Oregon is getting spanked by Stanford, Alabama and Penn State both losing at halftime. The “true” sabbatical is now pretty much in the same boat as Clinton not inhaling or having “sex with that woman”.

Saturday, 4:45PM – Out shopping again, this time to, yep you guessed it, Bed, Bath and Beyond. Are you kidding me, this place doesn’t even have one of those old black and white TVs that I can watch. The highlight of this trip is watching my three kids pick out new comforters – the oldest knows what she can spend and picks out appropriately; the youngest has no clue but when given a choice she happily picks one that works for her; the middle child picks out the one that costs the most and is the less feasible (trust me). Then when told she cannot have it, throws a fit. I get it though, she hasn’t won a soccer game in over a year and she is frustrated. Finally, she compromises (or is compromised).

Saturday, 5:50PM – Sixty-Five minutes in BB&B. Now I know why they take forever at malls, literally I would have picked out the comforter in five minutes and been home in time to see the last few minutes of Oregon/Stanford, well if it wasn’t sabbatical weekend. I have been watching all the scores on my phone. I have now reached the point of Lloyd Bridges in Airplane! “Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop viewing scores on my Phone!” It’s just a matter of time.

Saturday, 6:25PM – Back home after a quick stop at Target. I am still watching the scores on the phone, at this point I don’t even care about the sabbatical and in fact it’s already served its purpose. “Looks like I picked the wrong week to stopping watching games on ESPN360.COM”. Yep, the sabbatical was shorter than a Cole Hamels World Series start. Nebraska is up 7-0 on Oklahoma.

Saturday, 8:45PM – The great thing about ESPN360 is that you can pause and return to the same point. Wow, it’s like TIVO and thanks to COX I get it for free. Holy crap, talk about falling off the wagon, this is like that except in addition I come out of the weekend addicted to something else. No one seems to care though, which serves as my rationalization.

Saturday, 10:15PM – I finally get through the Husker game and they won! So much for my “Mortgage Bailout” pick. Oh well, it was worth the try, just foreclose now. I cannot wait for Sunday – odds that I need another sabbatical next weekend are running about 50/50 right now.

Sunday, 10:30AM – Home from Church in time to check inactive players to be sure that all of a sudden Larry Fitzgerald didn’t come down with the flu. Westbrook is out and he plays Sunday night, nice, usually you cannot get that information until right before kickoff. Lineups in and I am off the computer for the day. Oh no, I forgot to put my loser pool ($9,000) pick in this weekend. I get stuck with the Panthers, who I actually think have a chance against the Saints.

Sunday, 11:30AM – “If you want to watch the Cardinals game, I will not stop you” – Me to my daughter. So, I am pretty much butchering the sabbatical, so I think I need to change it from a full “bye” week type sabbatical to an “I won’t show up” Cardinals type of a sabbatical. With that out of the way I head to the league website to start charting scores.

Sunday, 1:45PM– I head to the store, after spending the last 2+ hours watching my fantasy scores online. No worries, I have my phone and the radio, which I get to listen to the Cardinals in the midst of blowing a 34-7 lead. For those of you mocking me right now, I still have not watched a down of NFL football this weekend, so even though this is like a no-hitter where the pitcher has walked eight batters, the sabbatical is intact.

Sunday, 2:20PM– The Cardinals hang on, but there is some deeply troubling news – Carolina has gone up on New Orleans 7-0, I knew it. The only worse news would be if the touchdown was scored by DeAngelo Williams, who I am playing against in a key league. “You have GOT to be KIDDING me”, I mumble to as I find out that not only was the TD scored by DeAngelo, but from 66 yards. Judging from the reaction of the people waiting in line at the deli counter my comment was far from a mumble. People are scurrying away from me like I have the plague.

Sunday, 2:28PM– A mere eight real-time minutes have gone by and guess what, DeAngelo Williams has two touchdowns and 100 yards in the first quarter. Come on Saints, he is the only play-maker on that team! I have made up my mind I have to watch the game when I get home too much is riding on it to wait until Monday AM. But first I need to pick up a pack of XXL diapers, because every time DeAngelo Williams gets the ball I am going to crap my pants in fear that he will run through the entire defense. Can I get one of those Nawleans witch doctors to stick a needle in this guys hamstring?

Sunday, 3:45PM- I am watching the game, the sabbatical is officially over, kind of like losing a no-hitter in the 7th, I too get a standing ovation from my family.

Sunday, 5:25PM- I am determined to finish strong, so despite watching the final minutes of the Giants/Chargers and the 49ers/Titans, I will take the Sunday Night game off.

Monday, 6:00AM- The Cowboys beat the Eagles, wow that is pretty impressive performance by the Pokes. The good news abounds as I have a real chance to go 4-1 in my fantasy leagues. I also stayed alive in the loser pool. I do feel refreshed and ready for the stretch run.

Thanks to the Patriots failing to cover by a .5 point I took quite a beating last week. This week I am back and ready to rumble with a spiked bat!

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

San Francisco -3.5 over Chicago – Both teams are severely free-falling, but the head coaches are reacting differently. Mike Singletary is fired up and telling everyone who will listen that the 49ers will “make the playoffs” and “come of age”. Hmm, ok Mike. Lovie Smith on the other hand, looks disinterested and confused, as if someone forced a quarterback he didn’t want on him.

The other question I have – is how does Jay Cutler not get criticized like Tony Romo does? They essentially are the same quarterback:

Cutler – 0 playoff wins; 5-9 record in December

Romo – 0 playoff wins; 5-8 record in December

 

Denver pulled a fast one on Chicago by trading Cutler.

 

Atlanta -1.5 over Carolina – You know what we haven’t seen for a while – a Jake Delhomme home game implosion. You know one of those zero TD, four interception, five turnover games where every pass Jake throws is either picked off or dropped by the opponent. You know a game where the Panthers start handing the ball off every play regardless of the situation. They could win those games last year with their defense, this year not so much.

Miami -10 over Tampa Bay – I still believe this Dolphin team is a very good, they have had some tough losses but they will make a strong playoff run.

Detroit +16.5 over Minnesota – I am taking the Lions here for the following reasons:

1. The Lions always play the Vikings tough at the Metrodome
2. The Vikings do not cover the tight end well; the Lions only throw to their tight ends
3. Favre has a strained groin, but his ego will not allow him to relinquish a single snap to a backup quarterback for fear that somehow that Tavaris will steal his job because he has a better handoff
4. Brad Childress cannot be trusted to cover 16.5

 

OK, I did some research – the Lions have only covered the spread once in the last four trips to Minnesota. Plus, no team can turn a “cash the check already” 28 point spread lead into the “are you effing kidding me” failure to cover of the year. But I thrive on risk and the fact that I am missing that key .5 to make it 17 only adds to the degree of difficulty.

 

NY Jets -7 over Jacksonville – 63! As in 63 degrees, the game-time temperature. What that means is Mark Sanchez should be able to function at near 100% capacity, thus the Jets should handle their business. But the weather in New York I guaranteed to get ugly for an upcoming and you know what that means -yup, “Mortgage Bailout”!

Cincinnati +7 over Pittsburgh – I honestly think the Bengals can win in Pittsburgh and certainly cover this big number. Take a quick look at the Bengals next three games – @Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit – it’s like vacation time, therefore look for the Bengals to sellout to win this game.

St. Louis +14 over New Orleans – This Rams team is sneaky good and with the extra week to prepare, look out! OK, the Rams aren’t good if they had a month to prepare, but the Saints don’t look right to me, like they need a loss to re-focus their season; plus, the Rams have spent the past 14 days as winners, which hasn’t happened since 1999.

Tennessee -7 over Buffalo – If you’re playing against Chris Johnson this week in fantasy, I am praying for you, man. In all honesty, Johnson may out-score some teams by himself. There will be times where it will look like pre-game warmup when there is no hitting and the running back leisurely strolls through the line, heading un-touched to the end zone. If I am playing against CJ I am prepared for 260 total yards and 4 TDs.

Washington +3.5 over Denver – It turns out that Kyle Orton might have some limitations as a quarterback, who knew? Strangely enough I think I figured out this Bronco team – they matchup extremely well with teams that have trouble stopping the run and are more pass oriented. The good news – two of the top teams in the AFC fit that profile (Pats and Colts). The bad news, the Redskins don’t fit that profile.

Kansas City +1.5 over Oakland – Ugh!

Seattle +8.5 over Arizona – “Mortgage Bailout” game of the week. Upset special of the week! Game of the century! Call right now . . . Ok, enough of the clichés, but how is this game going to be any different from the Panthers game for the Cardinals:

• The Cardinals are coming off an impressive road performance – Check
• The Cardinals are heavy favorites – Check
• The Cardinals embarrassed their opponent in the teams last meeting – Check
• UoP stadium will be filled with blasé fans who have “bigger fish to fry” – Check
• The Cardinals game-plan will be to get 8^th string TEs and Hightower the ball in the passing game early and often, thus throwing off Warner’s rhythm to his wideouts later in the game – Check

 

Add to the mix that Seattle actually has a competent quarterback and the Cardinals will be scrambling to win this game.

 

Green Bay +3 over Dallas – I watched the replay of the Eagles/Cowboys and on Miles Austin touchdown catch they showed a replay from the end zone. Right after Austin catches the ball he makes a move at about the 20 yard line, at the same time in the background Wade Phillips victoriously raises both arms. Problem was Austin still had to beat two defenders to get to the end zone. So, it got me thinking, why was Wade so excited? I narrowed it down to one of two things, either, 1. Wesley Phillips, Wade’s son and coach on the Cowboys staff, screamed into the headset, “Dad, mom is making ribs tonight!” or 2. Again Wesley screaming into headset, “Dad, I just called, Arby’s on 24^th is open until 1AM and they have the 5 for 5 deal. Yippee!”

Next up for Wade and Wesley, Wisconsin and “Dad, do you think those Cheese Heads them folks in Whissconson wear are edible, ’cause they look mighty tasty?”

San Diego -1.5 over Philadelphia – The best thing about this game will be seeing the two head coaches and their unfathomably use (or non-use) of timeouts. Norv Turner is famous for using timeouts that eventually leave too much time on the clock for the opponent, while Andy Reid specializes in saving his timeouts for ill-advised challenges.

Andy Reid fell to new depths with his challenges Sunday night. My favorite part was the way he indignantly threw the flag, as if there was no doubt the play would be overturned. I have to believe the referee and the replay official were clowning Reid while watching the replay:

Replay official – “Why did Reid challenge this?”

Referee – “He said he was hungry and wanted to get this game over.”

Followed by:

Referee – “Hey Johnny, can we take a look at the camera planted in the field?”

New England +3 over Indianapolis – The Colts have been begging to lose the last couple of weeks, but somehow they managed to survive. Not this week!

Baltimore -10.5 over Cleveland – Apparently Eric Mangini is working the Browns to hard, which to me seems a little like the 900 LB doctor telling his patient to change their diet. But at least we finally have an explanation for why the Browns are so bad.

Bonus Pick: Team Caveman +5.5 over Team Smith – Team Caveman lost 9-0 to Team Smith earlier in the year in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. There is heavy action on Team Smith and you know my motto “go with the house”.

Season Results:

Last Week: 8-5

2009 Record: 69-59-1

Last Week: $-1,680

Bank: $7,378 ($-942)

Bets:

Seattle +8.5, New England +3 and Green Bay +3

Straight Bets ($1100 each), 2-team round robin parlay (3 bets @ $400 each), 3-team parlay (1 bet @$200)

Total Risked: $4,700

 

Tuesday Evening Fantasy Headlines – Week 9

The Banner Fantasy League week nine featured a battle between the two highest scoring teams in the league, Unfrozen Caveman and Land Shark. The question was asked, “What do you tell a Land Shark with all their teeth knocked out? Nothing! They’ve already been told!” Unfrozen Caveman
TOLD
Land Shark!

Filthy Little Monkeys keep their faint playoff hopes alive by defeating a free-falling Hulkamaniacs, who played the Three MusketZeros, Larry Johnson (Incarcerated), Bryan Westbrook (Injured) and Mushin Muhammad (Inept).

KA-BOOM! That loud crash you just read is Don’t Mess with the Rohan’s fantasy team crashing to earth. Green’s Meanies tells Rohan, “You were living a lie anyway” and urinates on Rohan’s ashes.

Phergusons Philly Phanatic extends the “Philadelphia” horror (Eagles, 76ers, Phillies and Rocky V) to a full week, while extending his own streak of futility to ten games, as Beantown Warpigs “squeeze one out” against them.

The high scoring Kristi Kremes celebrate like they won Banner Bowl III, but are subdued when told it was merely a weekly high score. The high score was good enough to get them a win over the DA BYEZ FROM NYC.

Vince’s Barbershop, in financial hardship from the downturn in the economy, opens an illegal dog fighting ring in their backroom. The first victim is Evil Beagles.

Tazmanians, under the stress of a playoff run, use their sharp odor and disturbing screeching sounds to confusion Desert Pimps, then ferociously devour them to win their second consecutive game.

 

 

NFL Week 9 Picks

It’s my annual football sabbatical weekend! Every year I take one weekend completely off from football due to the draining nature of the sport. Right now, you’re thinking to yourself “you have got to be kidding me, suck it up wuss!” That’s fair enough, but the reality the NFL teams don’t play 16 consecutive weeks, why should the fans. That is especially true of a fan who falls into the Type-A, hyper-competitive personality profile.

This week is a perfect fit for me to remove myself from football for the following reasons – 1. Week 9 has been a fantasy nightmare for me in the past two years as I have gone 1-7 (72-32 in other weeks); 2. Nebraska is going to suffer their third consecutive home loss at the hands of Oklahoma; 3. I have some catching up to do my “honey-do” list; 4. I found out the other day that I have a six year-old, I could have sworn she was still am infant. Translation, the family is going to get some attention this weekend, in fact they’re in on it; 5. The anger and frustration I felt last week watching Brett Favre avoid a three man rush (thanks, Dom Capers) and shred the Packers, while the Cardinals were crapping their pants against the Panthers, threw me over the edge.

The sabbatical works like this – I don’t watch any football Saturday or Sunday. I cannot use the Internet, phone or print media to gather information on scores, teams, players or stats. I have to enter my fantasy lineups before 8AM on Saturday (incredibly risky, considering the number of players who are GTD and might decide not to play, Anquan Boldin, I am talking to you). The first time I can get a glimpse of the weekend action is on Monday AM. And believe me when Monday AM rolls around I am like a 10 year old on Christmas morning.

You may be interested in this football version of the “colon cleanse” and asking yourself is this for me. To help you decide, I have put together a quick questionaire:

1. Do you find yourself obsessing about your fantasy football team 24 x 7?
   
2. If when watching a football game as a casual observer, you begin to pull for one team and when that team begins losing, do you become violently angry?
   
3. Do you utter the phrases “I hope player X gets hurt” or “If I ever see player X, we are fighting”?
   
4. Have you ever taking seven hours to complete a task on Sunday that would take you 30 minutes any other day?
   
5. Do you find yourself praying to a plasma TV, saying things like, “Please, please put Steve Slaton back in, I promise he won’t fumble again!”?
   
6. Does your middle finger throb with pain Sunday night due to repeatedly right-clicking and refreshing at NFL.COM’s scoreboard?
   

 

If you answered “yes” to any of these questions you may benefit from a football sabbatical. Remember it’s just one week.

As for my picks, I am mired in a five week run mediocrity (8-6, 7-7, 7-7, 7-5-1, 7-6). At this point in the season, true playoff contenders begin to separate themselves from the pack. Therefore it’s time for the Caveman to “get busy winning”.

The theme this week is “go with the house”. It has been widely publicized over the past few weeks that Las Vegas sports books have been brought to their knees by bettors. The only reason they make that news public to entice more bettors into action, right? The common bettor is thinking, “Hey, look free money, I think I will help myself to some!” And what do you know there are several “out of whack” point spreads this week!

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Washington +9 over Atlanta – This spread seems a bit too low to me. The Eagles were favored by nine over the Redskins in Washington two weeks ago, that would translate into a 15 point spread in Philly for the Eagles. The Falcons and the Eagles are similar in terms of strength, with the Eagles possibly giving the Falcons two points above the standard home field or 5 points in Philly. Using that logic the spread should be around 13. Why is it nine? I guess because you just cannot give Jim Zorn an extra week to prepare!

Funny thing, the line opened at 10 and has moved to nine, which is an indication that the bettors are betting on Atlanta. Not true, according to Covers, the Falcons are drawing roughly 76% of the action. This is an obvious “go with the house” pick.

Arizona +3 over Chicago – “Larry, Anquan and Steve, I called you together today to let know you that this weekend we are going to use you three as decoys. Yep, I am designing a game plan to surprise the Panthers by exclusive throwing to our tight ends and running backs.” – Ken Whisenhunt.

The action for this game is evenly divided, meaning most bettors don’t know what to make of the Cardinals either. I think they were embarrassed last week, which means they will show up and beat an inferior team.

Baltimore -3 over Cincinnati – The first of three truly crazy lines of the week. So, let’s see Cincinnati beats Baltimore four weeks ago as a nine point road underdog and now essentially nothing has changed as Baltimore would still be a nine point favorite at home. Problem is the public is all over the Ravens -3 and even though this is “go with the house week”, I believe they tried to make this line palatable to Bengals action but they failed.

Plus, this is a must win for the Ravens.

Houston +9 over Indianapolis – Raise your hand if you fall into the “losing Owen Daniels crushed my fantasy team’s hope for 2009″ category. That’s me with two hands up. I was left to scurry for the likes of Chris Cooley (please, please make it back), Kevin Boss (I know what’s been missing with the Giants offense, the BOSSMAN, throw him the ball, Eli!) and Dustin Keller (rookie QB on a running team). My only hope is that the loss of Daniels will help Kevin Walter, who has been a major disappointment this season.

Kansas City +6.5 over Jacksonville – The “weak sack” sports books move this line to 7, but I am not worried about getting hooked. Why? Well, for one the Jags cannot stop the run, say hello to the beginning of Jamal Charles era. In addition, the Jags struggle as home favorites, but the betting public doesn’t care about meaningless stats like that as 61% are backing the Jags.

Tampa Bay +10 over Green Bay – I cannot believe Tampa is a 10 point underdog at home, don’t these odds-makers know the magic Raheem Morris can work with an extra week to prepare. Given the facts that Tampa is starting a rookie quarterback, who is making his first start and Green Bay is coming off a terrible loss the line should probably be higher. The bettors agree as Green Bay is getting an over-whelming 76% of the action.

I like the Bucs for the obvious “go with the house” play, but there are a couple additional tidbits that make this a better than average play – Aaron Rodgers is hurting, meaning the Pack will be less likely to pile on the points; and the Bucs are selling out with Josh Freeman, so they likely will continue running the full offense until the final whistle, which could lead to a late garbage covering TD.

New England -10.5 over Miami – Originally, I was all over Miami and the 10.5 then Joey Porter opened his mouth. A sampling of Porter’s brilliance, “…they used to be the champions back in the day” and when asked if Tom Brady has his own set of rules, Porter did not mince words, “When a guy can tell a ref when to throw a flag and he gets it and stuff like that, he got his own rules. They made the whole [rule that you] don’t go at the legs because of Tom. So when he feels that someone is coming at his legs, he just points at the ref and he gets a flag. So you’ve got to honestly say that he got his own rules.”

Thanks Joey, you just turned a coin flip game into a sure winner. Thanks goodness I am not playing Tom Brady this weekend in Fantasy.

Carolina +13.5 over New Orleans – I watched Michael Turner carve up the Saints on Monday, so I am guessing the Panthers dynamic duo of Stewart/Williams will run wild in this game. And Panthers fans you can exhale as it looks like Jake Delhomme is going to be able to play this weekend.

Seattle -10 over Detroit – The Seahawks specialized in beating bad teams badly at home – 28-0 over the Rams and 41-0 over the Jags.

San Diego +4.5 over NY Giants – According to Covers, the odds-makers have actually achieved the so-called 50-50 split they desperately desire.

Tangent Alert – The odds-makers try to sell the we want 50-50 action, so we can make 10% on the bets, ok fair enough, except that there is very little chance of them actually getting 50-50 action, even with their wide array of tools, like line movement and increasing the “take” percentage. Let’s remember a couple of things about sports books – NFL gambling sustains the books through all the other less lucrative sports; and most importantly, sports books make money. Let’s look at some facts – if we assume a game brings in 1 million dollars of action, the sports book max take on the game is 45 thousand, if action is split precisely 50/50. If we move the number slightly to 52.4/47.6, the sports book is now vulnerable to losing money. Of course, the sports books also have a nice sized “take” on parlays, teasers and various other prop bets, but you get the picture these sports books can’t pay the electricity bill by hoping to draw 50/50 action. They have information, they use to set lines and at the end of day, week, month or season they collect a massive amount of money.

Whew, I am glad I got that off my chest!

Tennessee +4 over San Francisco – Dumbest line of the week! San Francisco should be at least a touchdown favorite in this game. However, this line is a product of the NFC West being the weakest, or perceived weakest division in football. Maybe, just maybe, the Titans aren’t that bad of a football team and can recapture some of that 2008 magic.

Philadelphia -3 over Dallas – Another dumb line. Here is the list of teams Dallas has beaten – Carolina, Seattle, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and, the lone good win, Atlanta. Why are they considered an equal with a very good Eagles team? You can’t say it’s the Andy Reid effect, because if you look over at the other side there’s Wade Phillips and believe me if you bet on the Cowboys in a big road game, you’ll be trying to get your money back the minute they flash over to a shot of Wade on the sidelines and he has barbeque sauce stains on his mouth and cheeks.

Denver +3 over Pittsburgh – And the final game of week 9 ends with, guess what a dumb line. I guess the Ravens running up the score last week somehow means the Broncos aren’t for real. I know Orton played like crap, they couldn’t run the ball and the defense was exposed late in that game, but I still like the energy on this team. They certainly shouldn’t be underdogs.

Bonus Pick: Oklahoma -4.5 over Nebraska – This game will not be close, it is what I refer to as a “Mortgage Bailout” game, cue announcer voice, “Are you having trouble making your monthly mortgage? Would you like to have your next two mortgage payments turn into four or three into six? Then you want to know about this special, limited time Mortgage Bailout opportunity.”

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-6

2009 Record: 61-54-1

Last Week: $0

Bank: $9,058 ($-942)

Bets:

New England -10.5, Carolina +13.5, Tennessee +4, Philadelphia -3 and Denver +3

Straight Bets ($440 Each), 2-team round robin parlay (10 bets @ $100 each), 3-team round robin (10 bets @$50 each)

Total Risked: $3700

 

Yankees end long drought, win first title of the Third Millennium

The Third Millennium is a bit darker today, the air is denser making it tougher to inhale, and while the sun is out, it is nowhere near as bright as has been over the past nine years. Yes gone are the mid-Fall days where the roads that paved the morning commute were filled with bumps and dips, not from pot-holes but from Yankee hats, pennants, shirts and jerseys that had been cast aside due to repeated, colossal fall collapses from The Evil Empire. But not this year, so I begrudgingly congratulate the New York Yankees on winning their 27^th World Series, but their first in the Third Millennium. And just like that taunts of “Year 2000″ are forever buried.

How, after years of being able to set your watch by fall failures, did the Yankees break through this year? It certainly wasn’t the manager, since Joe Girardi couldn’t manage his way out of a wet paper bag (wow, that joke is so 70s, right?). You have to remember that baseball managers cannot win games, they can only lose them. And while Girardi lost his share for the most part he allowed his players to decide the meaningful games.

The reason the Yankees won the World Series – they had better players playing better than their opponents. It’s important to note that though the Yankees are a very talented team, they do not necessarily have more talent than the Phillies, but the past six games the Yankees simply played better baseball.

The Yankees caught the perfect storm of free agent acquisitions (Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira) producing like they were supposed to, forgotten players (Damon, Matsui and Posada), who essentially were written off, finding the fountain of youth leading to production like they were in their primes and a bullpen that was absolute nails over the course of the regular season. This type of success rarely happens for teams, but for this year it did and it paid the ultimate dividend.

Now the question is – does this start another Yankee dynasty or will next year yield a new champion like the previous 11? The Yankees will most certainly replace Damon with a high priced free agent and will be in on the Roy Halladay sweepstakes when he hits the trade market. There are only a handful of teams capable of competing with the Yankees as currently constructed – Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals and Dodgers. Of those teams, only the Phillies can compete with the current Yankee team that upgrades the left field position and adds another ace starter, and that is a stretch requiring a few Yankee key players to have a down year or injury. Not likely.

The Yankees will be the favorite and my pick to win it all in 2010. Hey, it’s never too early to start working on a reverse jinx.

Tuesday Morning Fantasy Headlines – Week 8

In the Banner League week 8 featured three games of boss versus employee.

Unfrozen Caveman (employee) kicked Filthy Little Monkeys (boss) when the Monkeys strategy of playing two kickers backfires. Caveman builds an early, seemingly insurmountable lead and tells his late afternoon players to take the day off. Much like coach Whiz decided to give his play-makers the day off and instead focus on the stealthy move of throwing the ball to 8^th string TEs and undrafted running backs.

Don’t mess with the Rohan insubordinately declined to put Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic lineup. I am sure this issue will require some coaching, but Rohan will take the win with the lowest ever winning score.

Management got their lone victory when Land Shark harassed, without repercussion, Desert Pimps. To Land Shark’s credit he wasn’t at his best, but he took care of business despite the biggest game of his life looming on the horizon.

In a battle between truly despicable creatures, Warpigs turn Tazmanians on their heads and spin them like top.

In a rare appearance, DA BOYZ FROM NYC, take a break from making ridiculous trades in order to stock pile every Jet on the planet and defeat the Green Meanies. The win gets DA BOYZ out of the cellar. . .

Child protective services need to receive a call about Evil Beagles abuse of Hulkamaniacs. And with the loss the Hulkster is left scratching his head as the rest of the league wonders if the fact that the Banner League started testing for PEDs has anything to do with the dramatic fall.

Kristi Kremes robs Vince’s Barbershop and uses the money to start a boutique, which eventually puts Vince out of business.

NFL Week 8 Picks

I will be honest this week had me completely befuddled. And to think last week, I thought I was on top of the gambling world. Just goes to show how quickly it can go, when you get a lucky cover because of a defensive touchdown (confidence is waning but hey, I won) on an early game, only to see the same luck turn against me in the late game. Next thing you know, I go from “the zone” to being known as SoM (Strike out Machine) like Ryan Howard of the Phillies.

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Buffalo +3 over Houston – The Bills have something working with the stoic Dick Jauron pacing the sidelines like he is giving a lecture on 1800’s literature. And if the Texans win this game they will be two games over .500 for the first time in franchise history. That’s eight long years. In fact, I had my crack research team look it up and every other NFL team has had at least two seasons where they have been two games over .500. Yup, even the Lions, Bengals and Cardinals.

Seattle +9.5 over Dallas – I heard this classic story this week about how Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck plays fantasy football and of course drafted himself (in the later rounds, no doubt. But since he knew he was an injury risk he also drafted Brett Favre, who he started in week 4 when Hasselbeck threw four touchdowns against the Jaguars. Not wanting the make the same mistake again Matty threw himself in the lineup against the Cardinals. We all know how that turned out. Matt, here is some free advice, next year take the guess work out of the quarterback position and go with a sure thing like Brees, Manning and Brady.

San Francisco +12.5 over Indianapolis – I am likin’ me some of the dogs so far this week. Call me crazy, but I think the 49ers hang tough in this game, led by their soon-to-be Pro Bowl tight end, Vernon Davis. Did you know that Vernon Davis was available in close to 28% of the league prior to this week? And now that number has fallen to 18%. Are you kidding me? Davis is the 4^th overall scoring TE so far this season, how can that be? What are owners waiting for Vernon to prove himself? Or the more appropriate questions are – where are these leagues and can I get in?

Baltimore -3.5 over Denver – This is pretty much a must win for the Ravens, as the next six games are brutal for them. I have to admit I have come full circle on the Broncos, but I think the bye week hurt them. For starters, I am not the only one who has come around the entire nation now loves this team. So they have had a week to sit around while everyone is telling them how good they are. Secondly, the Ravens have had an extra week to prepare for them. You know want that means – the Ravens are about to introduce to the NFL (cue announcer voice over), “The blueprint to beat the Denver Broncos”.

Chicago -13 over Cleveland – My goodness, has a team ever been beaten by 42 points one week and then made a 13 favorite the next. That would take my research team a couple weeks to come up with the answer, so I will go out on a limb with it hasn’t happen very often. Welcome to Cleveland Brown football!

But it might be getting better for the Browns, I heard this week the fans are planning to stage a “late arrival” to the Monday Night game against the Ravens as a protest of “we’re not going to take it” to the Browns ownership. Yup that is a start, but really the only way out of this is to re-locate and start following a new team. The problem isn’t Browns ownership, it’s Cleveland!

St. Louis +4 over Detroit – This is the Rams Super Bowl. A loss here will put the Rams in serious danger of becoming the second team in as many seasons to finish 0-16. I sense a trend and we quite possibly could have two 0-16 teams this year as the Bucs have a worse schedule remaining than the Rams. Great, the Rams will finish 0-16 and still not get the #1 pick in the draft. Of course, with the way they draft they will find a way to screw it up regardless of where they pick.

NY Jets -3 over Miami – It’s a banner day for the “Big Apple”, the Jets roll the Dolphins and …

NY Giants -1 over Philadelphia – The Giants pick up a huge win over the Eagles and …

The MFYankees take a 3-1 lead over the Phillies, all but writing an end to the 2009 World Series. Sad but true. One thing seemingly will never change, however, the Knicks – losers to the 76ers on Saturday night.

Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville – Vince Young to the rescue! Part of me wonders if Jeff Fisher’s, who essentially was forced to play Young, undying loyalty to Kerry Collins will cause him to tell his tackles to miss a couple blocks or if the game plan will be so bad VY will fail. And why are the Titans favored in this game? For what it’s worth, I have picked the Titans to win each of their games this year.

San Diego -17 over Oakland – So maybe the Chargers are coming out of this early season funk. The odds-makers clearly think they will – whoa, 17 points. But if you break down like this, it’s not so hard to take the Chargers.

SD 1^st possession – tough 10 play drive ends with a field goal, 3-0

Oak 1^st possession – tough three and out

SD 2^nd possession – 5 play drive for a TD, 10-0

Oak 2^nd possession – 2 play drive ends with an interception

{The Raiders defense officially checks out of this game right about now}

SD 3^rd possession – 2 play drive for a TD, 17-0

 

See before you’ve settled in for the late afternoon games, the Chargers have already pushed the spread and the Raiders defense is in “don’t get hurt” mode.

 

Green Bay -3 over Minnesota – Favre Bowl II! I will be very interested to see how the Packers fans treat old numero four. What would be great is to see Favre begin this game the way he ended his last game at Lambeau, with a terrible interception.

Carolina +10 over Arizona – Is it possible that the Cardinals could actually lose this game? Yes, definitely, for a variety reasons:

1. The Cardinals seem to lead the league in letdown performances. They win in New York last weekend, they lose at home to a terrible football team
2. The Panthers loss in the playoffs to the Cardinals could be viewed as the catalyst for their poor start this season. Yea, I know that is an understatement, but the reality the Panthers could save their season with a win this weekend.
3. The Panthers have confidence in UOP stadium. They won here two years ago with the corpse of Vinny Testeverde, so you know they believe they can win with Jake Delhomme.

Atlanta +11 over New Orleans – The Saints/Dolphins game played out pretty much like I thought it would except for the fact that the Dolphins decided to crap their pants in the second half. My favorite part was the two Drew Brees quarterback sneaks for TD’s. So, if you were playing against Brees in fantasy but were only able to watch the game on your phone then you felt pretty good when you scrolled down to see that Brees had not thrown a TD. However, you scrolled past P. Thomas and M. Bell, no touchdowns. No biggie, it was probably a fluke defensive TD or a Heath Evans. “&%#^$*~ &%#^, it was Brees!!”

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-5-1

2009 Record: 54-48-1

Last Week: $-377

Bank: $9,058 ($-942)

Bets:

As mentioned above, I am not feeling it this week, so rather than throw money away I will abstain.

Total Risked: $0

 

Tuesday Morning Fantasy Headlines – Week 7

In this day and age when print news is becoming a dinosaur, Unfrozen Caveman still enjoys walking out in front of his stone palace to retrieve the newspaper. Once Caveman finishes reading about how he dominated his opponent in the Banner League, he rolls the paper into a tightly wound club and drives home-made stone nails     through the middle thus forming a spiked bat. He uses that spiked bat to un-mercifully beat Evil Beagles.

Land Shark sneakily attempts to win with an illegal lineup. When called out, Shark, though a callous eating machine resists the temptation to devour Beantown Warpigs and pulls McNabb out of his lineup. Then eats Warpigs anyway!

Don’t Mess with the Rohan takes a break from complaining about playing the top scorer “every single week” and defeats a low scoring Tazmanian team.

DA BOYZ FROM NYC manage to defeat the frenetically free falling Pherguson’s
Philly Phantic despite only having four Jets in their starting lineup.

In the game of the week and the surest sign of what goes around, comes around, Kristi Kremes deals Hulkamaniacs a crushing defeat when Brian Westbrook is kneeled in the head, leaving after a paltry 1.3 points. Still, Kremes needs garbage time magic from Jason Campbell to squeeze out the win.

In a see-saw battle with Filthy Little Monkeys, Desert Pimps survives as Monkeys soil themselves.

Vince’s Barbershop drop Green Meanie’s and leave him screaming for a “screaming green meanie.”

 

 

NFL Week 7 Picks

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like the head coaches in the NFL are getting stupider by the second. I think I am going to have to put together a column to commemorating the piss-poor coaching in the NFL. And to think these guys all make $1 million plus dollars, well except for Tom Cable, who I cannot take seriously considering he looks like Dan Connor’s (John Goodman) identical twin. Last weekend I witnessed three of the most egregious errors a head coach:

Exhibit A (play-by-play from NFL.COM): Brad Childress

Minnesota Vikings at 03:37

Your goal is simple: 1. score points to win the game and 2. leave no time on the clock.

 

1-10-MIN 20 (3:37) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to MIN 24 for 4 yards (41-F.Walker).

2-6-MIN 24 (2:59) 4-B.Favre pass deep right to 18-S.Rice to BLT 18 for 58 yards (41-F.Walker). Penalty on BLT-41-F.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

 

Perfect, now you’re in comfortable field goal range. Now the goal should to get one first down, force the Ravens to burn their remaining timeouts and bleed the clock.

 

1-10-BAL 18 (2:51) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to BLT 20 for -2 yards (56-T.Gooden).

Timeout #2 by BLT at 02:46.

 

Nothing wrong with this call, but it went south.

 

2-12-BAL 20 (2:46) 28-A.Peterson left guard to BLT 17 for 3 yards (95-J.Johnson, 52-R.Lewis).

Timeout #3 by BLT at 02:30.

 

Here is where Childress went wrong, effectively without a first down you’re in the position of leading by less than a field goal with over two minutes to play. You have to run your normal offense here, meaning you let Favre throw the football.

 

3-9-BAL 17 (2:30) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson right guard to BLT 14 for 3 yards (52-R.Lewis).

Two-Minute Warning

 

So here is what Childress is telling everyone – I am comfortable kicking the field goal to give me the lead and leave the game in the hands of my defense, never mind that my defense hasn’t stopped the Ravens the entire second half. And what exactly did you go get Brett Favre for if you are going to play like this?

 

Sure enough the Ravens got into reasonable field goal range, but Childress was bailed out by the miss, this time! Mark these words Viking fan – Childress is going to cost you in a big spot!

Exhibit B: Andy Reid

I will spare you the play-by-play and focus on the timeout with 2:02 left in the 4^th quarter. And how many 1^st graders can answer the question – what can an offense trying to burn the clock do with 2:02 left in the 4^th quarter? Anything they want, because the clock is stopping with the two minute warning, so that timeout gives the opposing coach the option to throw a pass, even with Jamarcus Russell, without stopping the clock.

Exhibit C: Dick Jauron

A win over the Jets is a season saver, right? The difference between 2-4 and 1-5 is huge, trust me, 1-5 it’s over but at 2-4 and owning a road win over a division opponent, you’re in business. So when you get the chance you go for it. Not Jauron. He preferred to settle for a long field goal against the wind in the Meadowlands.

The fun begins with the Bills facing a 2^nd and 2 at the Jets 29 with two minutes to play and two timeouts. The results – four plays, two timeouts, one yard and one missed field goal. With 1:19 left the Bills gained a first down at the Jets 26, they ran one more play for -2 yards and kicked the field goal on 2 and 12. Inexplicably! It worked out for Jauron, but clearly this guy is over-matched.

Enough about incompetent millionaire head coaches and on to the picks, I am hovering around medirocrity, but the games this week seem to be in English instead of the normal Chinese (for the record I cannot read Chinese).

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Games I love:

San Francisco +3 over Houston – The Texans have lost two games this season at their opponent goal-line. Somehow, some way this team finds ways to migrate to, at best, mediocrity. Plus, this 49er team is for real and will harass Schuab all day long.

Kansas City +4.5 over San Diego – My favorite play from the Chargers/Broncos Monday night game was the third down and goal run to Sproles, with Topmlinson on the bench. Yep, that play worked one time, against a terrible defense and now Norv is confused as to why is hasn’t worked since. He tried it against the Ravens (good run defense) and now the Broncos (good run defense). Keep up the good work, Norv. What is more surprising – that Norv continues to run that play or that he didn’t show up as Exhibit D above?

Indianapolis -14 over St. Louis – I cannot believe this spread is only 14. So, let’s assume the Colts only put up 28 points the Rams still need to put up two touchdowns to push. Given the fact that the Rams are audtioning Henry Ellard and Flipper Anderson for WR, I just cannot see them scoring two touchdowns and let’s get real, the Colts will score at least one defensive TD, Manning will go nuts with four scores, throw in one Joseph Addai score and we are looking at a 42-10 final.

New England -14.5 over Tampa Bay – The Patriots are back in full ‘eff you mode after shellacking the Titans last week 59-0. I guess choking away the Super Bowl and seeing Brady get knocked out for a full year isn’t enough evidence of some kind karmatic, “what goes around comes around.” So, this game will seem more like a Nebraska/Iowa State game, uh hang on, more like a Nebraksa/Western South Texas State.

Pittsburgh -6 over Minnesota – Let’s recap the Vikings season so far, they have beaten three truly bad teams – Browns, Lions and Rams. They won with two miracles – one on the Greg Lewis catch and the other when the Ravens missed a field goal. And they beat the Packers at home. Whoop-de-do! It’s judgment day for Favrah and the Vikes.

Green Bay -8 over Cleveland – How about this two-team parlay – this Packers -8 and “The Flu” -6, both over the Browns. I’ll ask the same question, I posed about the Rams/Colts game, how will the Browns score enough points to keep this game close? Exactly!

Carolina -7 over Buffalo – Trent Edwards is not playing this week, but he has still been a very, very valuable for the Bills preparation for the Panthers, he has simulated Jake Delhomme by throwing passes to the Bills defensive backs!

I watched Thomas Jones run through the Bills defensive like he was DeAngelo Williams, so I am guessing the real DeAngelo will go crazy this week. Here are some things I wish I could bet on this week:

DeAngelo Williams has a 40+ yard TD run

Both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams run for 100+ yards

Steve Smith will have less than .5 receptions

 

Oakland +6.5 over NY Jets – Bold prediction – Michael Huff will have more receptions (interceptions) than all the Raiders wide receivers combined.

Cincinnati -1 over Chicago – The Bears are the 2009 version of the 2008 Packers. At the end of the season, we will scratch our heads while wondering how the Bears finished 6-10. To make matters worse they will probably end up out-scoring their opponents, which is a sure sign of a team that finds ways to lose.

Atlanta +4.5 over Dallas – Smells like the “field goal” game of the week. I just cannot see the Cowboys slowing down the Falcons. And I hate betting on the Cowboys, because at some point during the game the camera will catch a shot of Wade Phillips with the “aw shucks” look and I will instantaneously know I am doomed.

Miami +6.5 over New Orleans – I am loving me some of the Dolphins. The Saints have burnt me in the past and they have more weapons than Michael Douglas’ character in Falling Down but you have to beware of these out of conference road games. In effect, they’re meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Plus, the Falcons are next up on the Saints schedule.

Arizona +7 over NY Giants – I am sick and tired of the lack of respect for the NFC West. But in fairness, the West coast teams have played the part of the, uh, female dog to the East coast team. That ends Sunday, Cardinals win outright!

Philadelphia -7 over Washington – A mere a month after serving Jello cups to the elderly, Sherman Lewis is now calling plays for the Redskins. I literally think Sherm is going to “Madden” easy call mode – either Run or Pass. Yea, I am giving them very little chance of winning this game.

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-7

2009 Record: 47-43

Last Week: $1,820

Bank: $9,435 ($-565)

Bets:

Miami +6.5, Pittsburgh -6, San Francisco +3 – $550 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Miami +6.5, Pittsburgh -6, San Francisco +3 – $300 each (3 total)

Total Risked: $2550

 

Tuesday Morning Headlines

This week was the highest scoring week in the history of the Banner League, with an average score of 132.49 which betters the 125.88 from week 7 last year. In addition, Land Shark put up the single highest scoring game in Banner history with a 205.66. Imagine what he could do if he cared!

Land Shark and Don’t Mess with the Rohan celebrate together the Raiders victory over the lifeless, worthless Eagles, but Land Shark double-crossed him and bit off his head.

Unfrozen Caveman runs his winning streak to seven by barely breaking a sweat in an easy win over a very soft Kristi Kremes team.

Evil Beagles defecate on Desert Pimps turf thus causing a slowdown in “business”, while Beantown Warpigs spank the Filthy Little Monkeys.

DA BOYZ FROM NYC avoid a complete lost weekend for the city of New York (Jets, Giants and Yanks) by shaving Tazmanians by 1.8 points or 18 rushing yards by LT or 45 yards passing by Phillip Rivers or an extra couple feet on a pass to a wide open LT heading for the end zone.

In the Stink Bowl, Vince’s Babershop, the 4^th lowest scoring team, defeats Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic, the 2^nd lowest scoring team. The Philly Phanatic is clearly pre-occupied by the late inning theatrics by the hometown Phillies. Here’s hoping they can keep it up, if the Yankees don’t choke again in the ALCS.

Green Meanies survives the second highest scoring performance ever in the Banner league by Tom Brady to Body Slam the Hulkamaniacs.

NFL 2009 – Week 6 Picks

The Caveman is on vacation exploring new technologies like the microwave and remote control, but he still managed to put together a quick version of the week 6 picks.

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Games I love:

Houston +5 (Cincinnati) – This will be a huge letdown week for the Bengals this week.

Jacksonville -9 (St. Louis) – It is always a gamble laying big points with the Jags, but have you seen the Rams?

Baltimore +3 (Minnesota) – Let’s see how grandpa Favre can handle the Ravens defense.

Kansas City +6.5 (Washington) – I like the Chiefs as an outright winner this week.

Philadelphia -14 (Oakland) – Have you seen the Raiders?

Seattle -3 (Arizona) – Seattle re-emerged as a contender in the division last weekend. This weekend they can put themselves in control of the division. Yea, I am considering the 49ers a pretender.

NY Jets -10 (Buffalo) – I would like to rewind to the first game of the year and give the Bills the win over the Patriots, does that change this team? I actually thought this was a decent team.

The rest:

Green Bay -13.5 (Detroit) – The Lions are scrappy, but without Megatron they don’t have the firepower.

New Orleans -3 (NY Giants) – This game is probably a field goal either way, I will take the home team Saints, because I am guessing Eli’s foot hasn’t gotten any better considering the number of “Giants 10″ dolls that have been getting stuck in the foot with a needle this past week.

Cleveland +14 (Pittsburgh) – I literally just typed this (removing the backspaces) “Pitts Clevelan Pittsburgh -1 Cleveland +14″. Yea, I have no clue here.

Tampa Bay +3 (Carolina) – Is Carolina any good? No, they shouldn’t be giving any team points on the road.

New England -9.5 (Tennessee) – It’s one thing if Vince Young is going to get the start, but to continue to bring him off the bench is a recipe for disaster. The backup quarterback is never prepared to play like the starter.

Chicago +3.5 (Atlanta) – The Falcon bandwagon is over flowing this week, but closer inspection reveals that the 49ers are a tailor made matchup for Atlanta. Chicago not so much.

San Diego -3.5 (Denver) – Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the Broncos went 16-0? I started to come around on them this week, which almost certainly means they will get crushed.

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-7

2009 Record: 40-36

Last Week: $-1,650

Bank: $7,615 ($-2,385)

Bets:

Kansas City and Houston to win – $100 each to win $200 each

Kansas City and Houston 2-team parlay to win – $50 to win $400

Seattle -3, Baltimore +3, Kansas City +6.5, Houston +5 – $440 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Seattle -3, Baltimore +3, Kansas City +6.5, Houston +5 – $200 each (6 total)

Total Risked: $3210