2010 NFL – Super Bowl XLV Edition

Super Bowl XLV is upon us. Before we get to the picks, I want to touch on this Visa “Never miss a Super Bowl Club” commercial. You know the one where they found these four old coots who claim they have been to every Super Bowl as they promote their contest to award the eventual winner with a trip to every Super Bowl for the rest of their life. OK, so I am calling no effing way, BS on these guys.

But you say, Cavey allegedly these guys have the tickets stubs from every game, if that is the case, they have to have gone. Yep, that settles it – they definitely have been to every game if they have the ticket stubs, I mean there is no way you could buy Super Bowl ticket stubs on EBay or at Sports collectible convention. They have every Super Bowl program? Please, the NFL sells them after the fact to collectors and fans. They have pictures? Hello, Photoshop!

The facts against are over-whelming – from family to financial to mere logistics. Think about the impact that would have had on the families, there had to be at least one time where there was a family conflict, where attending the game meant missing special event. Come on, are you try to sell me that not one time in the last 45 years Mrs. Never Miss a Super Bowl didn’t put her foot down, telling one of those bozos, “Chief, you’re not going this year!”

Let’s talk about the financial impact, one of these guys worked for an airline as a ticket agent. Um, so how was this guy able to afford tickets that routinely run in the $2500 range? I know for a fact that the Pats/Giants Super Bowl XLI tickets were going for $3000 a ticket. And that was for a nose bleed. What would that be for the ticket agent – a month of salary? And that just gets him in the game. I am sure he was able to save on airfare, being that he worked for an airline, but still it all adds up to a fairly hefty number.

No doubt these guys have attended more than a few games, maybe even as many as 30, but I think is it far more likely that they crafted this story, got the NFL, and Visa, to buy in and now are cashing in as allegedly the NFL gives these guys tickets at face value (yet, it’s still no bargain at $600 a seat) each year, so they can continue “the streak”. What a joke! Coming next – a TLC special documentary on these guys and how they’ve kept the streak, despite the damage to their families.

All right enough ranting, on to the picks.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy
of
covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs:6-4 (Last week 1-1)

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 5-5 (Last week 1-1)

 

First, here are my favorite prop bets:

Will one team record three consecutive scores? Yes -170, No +140. Allegedly “the Sharps” are all over the Yes side of this because it happens in the majority of Super Bowls.

Quick tangent here – how does one become a “Sharp”? Is there a class? Is it as simple as titling yourself a “Professional Sports Investor”? I want an answer, because for something so ambiguous, there is a clear delineation between “Sharps” and “Squares”.

Anyway, I bought into this until I realized I had to lay odds to take the “yes”. After further review, “every” must mean the last two Super Bowls, because in the last eight Bowls the “three unanswered scores” is just .500. My guess is if you throw out the blowout Super Bowls, this prop would be right around .500. And since the Packers and Steelers are evenly matched, it is unlikely either team will score three unanswered times. The +140 on the “No” is great value.

The number of times “Little Ben” made an appearance this week? 2.5. Give me the under, but either way hopefully, for his sake, it was consensual.

First Steeler to intercept a pass? Bryant McFadden +750 Really? Can I bet on “There is no effing way Bryant McFadden breaks up a pass”? I would happily lay -1000 on that. Yea, he’s that bad!

Donald Driver receiving yards 44.5, receptions 4 – Over and Over. For a few reasons – 1. He should see a ton of linebacker coverage from the slot; 2. He is a great player, better person and a guy you want to root for (wow, that was a real “square” reason); 3. There is an up and coming porn star, hoping the Packers win this game so Driver will retire and giving him the opportunity to change his stage name to Don Driver.

Number of references to Brett Favre cock-blocking Aaron Rodgers, 6.5 – Here’s a crazy theory for you – maybe Favre knew how good Rodgers was going to be, so he decided to play games in hopes that Rodgers would either get fed-up and demand a trade or just give up period. And Favre had to play just the way he did – because if the Packers knew he was coming back at the end of each season, Rodgers would have asked for a trade after about five seasons of sitting. But by flip-flopping, Rodgers thought he had the job. That’s was the key he couldn’t let Rodgers have a clearly defined role. And it’s Fox, so I can hear in my ears Joe Buck waxing about “How Aaron Rodgers patiently waited, blah, blah”.

Heath Miller receiving yards vs. Dwight Howard Points+Rebounds, Miller -6.5 – This is a lock if Dwight Howard mimics Paul Pierce’s pre-game ritual of “rolling the dice”, but either way I expect Miller to have a nice day, so unless Howard goes off for like a 40-20, Miller money in the bank. Plus, the ceiling on Miller is an impossible number for Howard.

Total Number of Packers to have a rushing attempt, 4 – At worst this is a push, Starks, Rodgers, Kuhn and Jackson will get at least a carry. You have to play this with the hopes that McCarthy will run a WR reverse or throw a bone to BJ Raji on the goalline.

Driver -3 receiving yards over Hines Ward – Love Driver, hate Ward in this game.

Mike Wallace +17.5 receiving yards over Greg Jennings – I like Wallace to hit a big play in this game, Jennings will be solid, but not spectacular.

Pittsburgh v. Green Bay (-2.5)

CaveKid’s Elementary Logic: Both teams have yellow in their colors, so the other color will make the difference. Black vs. Green. You know, black is supposed to look slimming but that is a fallacy, I mean you’re either slim or not. And black represents all that is bad – night, darkness, evil, etc. But green, well green is good, really good. Green represents the color of money, which I will get a lot of when the Packers destroy the Steelers. Woo-Hoo!

The gambling over-thought: The line is cleverly placed at 2.5, which is not only an enticement to take the Packers for the bettors but also boxes the books into a corner since they cannot respond to heavy Packer action with anything more than an adjustment of the juice (for the squares – adding to the 10% commission you have to pay to take the Packers). If they move the game to Packers -3, they open up the possibility of a middle (Packers win by 3 and cover the 2.5 while Steelers bettors push). And nobody wants to see the flood of tears coming from the sports books if they get middled – woe is them.

So with that in mind, the logical play is the Steelers, given the overwhelming action is on Green Bay and we know that the bookies rarely lose Super Bowls.

That’s logically, here is the over-thought – I think the early rush of money being on Green Bay actually pushes late money to Pittsburgh. And without a doubt more money is bet late than early. Plus, you have to figure that most of the Pennsylvania coal miners just got paid at the end of the month, so after alcohol and cigarettes are purchased for the week, the rest is heading to the bookie on the Steelers.

It’s better to be lucky than good: Quickly, football fans tell me the last gut-wrenching, stomach punch, kick to the nut-sack loss the Steelers have endured. Give up? There haven’t been many. Maybe the 1994 AFC Championship game against the Chargers could be considered a kick to the groin. But that wasn’t because the Chargers got some extraordinary good fortune, the Steelers just crapped their pants.

Now tell me how many times the Steelers have been on the winning side of another team’s stomach punch loss. Too many to list but here are a few:

• The Immaculate Reception – quite possibly the luckiest play in the history of, well history. And common thought amongst Steelers history buffs is that this play turned the franchise around, thus laying the ground work for the four Super Bowls in 70s.
• Super Bowl X – Lynn Swann’s catch after tripping over a defender; no doubt this was a great play by a great athlete, but come on how many times does that happen – not many since or prior.
• Super Bowl XIII – The Cowboys tight end Jackie Smith drops a sure touchdown forcing the Cowboys to settle for a field goal – Steelers win by four.
• Super Bowl XIV – The 75 yard touchdown pass to Stallworth against the Rams; Rams DB Eddie Brown was a millimeter away from knocking the ball away. Those type of plays never go against the Steelers.
• 2005 AFC Divisional playoff – against the Colts, it finally appears as though the worm has turned against the Steelers, when “the Bus” fumbles on the goal-line and the ball is scooped up by Colts DB Kelvin Hayden who despite having miles and miles of free space towards the sideline decides to cut back inside allowing the three-toed sloth Roelisberger to tackle him. Vander-Choke misses the tying field goal and the rest is history (by the way, has there ever been a worse miss of a field goal in a key situation, I mean outside of those halftime contests where they pull some drunk fan out of the stands).
• Super Bowl XXXIX – The officiating was brutal and clearly favored the Steelers, but how about the key drops by Jerramy Stevens? Choke? Sure, but doesn’t seem like players always choke against the Steelers?
• Super Bowl XLII – The James Harrison 101 yard interception return. Unbelievable! Oh and let’s not forget the once in a lifetime pass/catch from Roethlisberger to Holmes.
• 2010 AFC Playoffs – The Ravens win the game they take a knee for every possession in the second half; instead they turn the ball over twice deep in their own territory. IF we had the ability to extend the AFC championship five minutes, the Jets are in the Super Bowl.

It’s tough to go against a team with a history of “supernatural” events constantly happening in their favor.

Foreshadowing: As I am writing, “America’s game” is on NFL Network, featuring the 1996 Green Bay Packers. Though I was only paying a cursory amount of attention, I happen to catch the following two things – first, in the 1996 pre-season they show a clip of Desmond Howard returning a punt for a touchdown. The opponent? The Steelers. The other thing was they mentioned that the Packers were decimated by injuries that season. Hmmm, very interesssting!

Logic: It’s quite simple – the Packers are the better team! And they pose a matchup nightmare for the Steelers. In fact, the only scenario I see where the Steelers win this game is one where they knock Rodgers out of the game. And I simply cannot back a team based on some random play.

Plus, rumor has it that if the Packers win this game they will rename Brett Favre Pass to Aaron Rodgers Way. But no worries, Brett, the Packers intend to move Brett Favre Pass to a 500 yard walkway that leads from the tailgate area lot to the port-a-potties!

Pick: Green Bay -2.5

Bonus Pick #1: Under 44.5

Bonus Pick #2: Green Bay -2.0 1^st half

Bonus Pick #3: Pittsburgh in the 2^nd half

CaveKid’s Pick – Pittsburgh +2.5, “This has been a long eight weeks of the Caveman riding me every Thursday to get “my picks to him”. It hasn’t been easy! Since I am one game behind going into the Super Bowl, I am forced to take the Steelers just to tie. I hate the Steelers so much that it is not funny. I honestly think that the Packers win this game. Both teams have momentum and confidence, so it could go either way. Hopefully, Worthlessburger will step up and play a great game! See you next when I demonstrate my dominance over a full year.”

Me – Worthlessburger, sounds a like bad name for a fast food restaurant.

 

2010 NFL Week 19 – Conference Championship Edition

Finally, finally Caveman exhibited his dominance over CaveKid in the Divisional playoff round. Thank you very much I posted a 3-1 record, while CaveKid found the rough and crawled to a 1-3 record. I am in full control of the second season. And just like the NFL, I would much rather be successful in the playoffs than the regular season.

It’s time to jump on the Caveman bandwagon. Well, that is if you want to end the season with three wins.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs: 5-3 (Last week 3-1)

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 4-4 (Last week 1-3)

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

A Cavaekid-like Elementary Logic: Bears are supposed to be hibernating at this time of year. And did you know that before a bear hibernates, they will eat a bunch of moss, bark and other material to prevent themselves from defecating during hibernation. Yea, that’s right they eat enough indigestible material to form a butt plug. Imagine the amount of feces that builds up during hibernation, it’s safe to assume you don’t want to be around when the bear appears and drops a deuce. Now given all that, can you really pick the Bears? At this time of year? No way!

Celebrity Pick of the Week: Early in the week news broke that Brett Favre picked the Packers, to which I immediately thought “nice try to reverse jinx the Packers, Brett”, but you know what I think Brett is actually trying to make nice with the Packers fan base. I think he realizes that he doesn’t want to turn out like Roger Clemens, who has backing from, count’em, zero fan bases. The Red Sox fans hate him, the Yankees fans never bought into him and have subsequently disowned him. Favre is in a similar position, in that the Packers fans have turned, viciously, on him. He can either be abandoned like the Riggins boys or start a political campaign to get back in the good graces with the Cheeseheads.

Look I’ve ripped since he started this ridiculous pre-season pattern of “no-yes-maybe-yes-no-no-yes”. He also hasn’t put it out on the field as he has destroyed two seasons with poor play and ended two other seasons with “ice pick to the scrotum” interceptions. Then there is the assuming, inappropriate text messages sent to an employee of the team (in fairness who hasn’t sent pictures of their junk to a cute co-worker). Favre’s turned into a parody of himself and pretty much needs to be in full-on ass-kiss mode to get back in the Packers good graces.

In a vain attempt to trump Favre, President Obama came out with a bold prediction on Wednesday, calling the Bears a lock to win. Hmmm, I’d like to jump on the Obama bandwagon with that pick, but I have a tough time taking this pick serious when Obama has the Elena Kagan pick on his resume.

Gambling Over Thought: I am not sure this is an over-thought, but the spread is way too high for teams this close. And the public is jumping all over the Packers. I feel compelled to bring out the 2000 and 2008 NFC Championship games, where two 3.5 point home team underdogs won outright (Giants and Cardinals).

Logic: The Bears are as good as the Packers. They beat them at home earlier in the year, then with the Packers season on the line the Bears gave the Pack all they could handle. In addition, I’ve seen fields in South Central LA in better shape than the turf at Soldier Field. That is a major problem for the Packers, since they’re the faster, more athletic team.

Caveat: Jay Cutler gets picked on the Bears first two possessions, giving the Packers an early lead and taking the crowd out of the game. The Bears are not equipped to play from

Pick: Chicago +3.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Chicago +3.5, “The Bears will defiantly win this one straight up. The Bears defense will shut the Packers down and ultimately score more points.”

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: Big Ben plays quarterback for the Steelers, but Big Ben is also a clock in London. A clock against an advanced machine like a Jet, not close!

Celebrity Pick of the Week: I sampled a ton of predictions on this game, the recurring theme was the Steelers by 4 points. However, there was one pick by a D-List celebrity that caught my eye. Craig “the Milk” Carton, a shock-jock from NY, picked the Jets to win 23-0. Hopefully, he didn’t bet another walk across the Brooklyn Bridge in a Speedo.

Gambling Over Thought: Consider the following – The Steelers did not have Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller available for their week 15 game against the Jets; both are playing this weekend; the Jets returned a kickoff for a touchdown and recorded a safety (the worst offensive play call of the 2010 NFL season), both of those events tend to be random. Given those factors – how does this line go from 5.5 in week 15 to 3.5 this week? Let’s throw in the Jets coming off the second biggest win in their history with the high likelihood of a letdown and how is this line not something like 6 or even 7?

Logic: Polamalu makes a huge difference for the Steelers; much is being made of the Jets beating Manning and Brady in consecutive weeks, but those two are statuesque compared with Roethlisberger, who’s ability to extend plays will give the Jets big problems. Plus, I will buy slightly into the Jets letdown theory. And finally, it’s the Jets, man, the Jets! They wouldn’t be the Jets if they won games like this.

Caveat: If the Steelers fall behind 21-7, the Jets will not bail them out with poor play-calling like the Ravens did.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5, “The Steelers are out for revenge this time around. Having home field advantage will help them win too.”

 

2010 NFL Week 19 Picks – Divisional Round

Caveman’s quick picks for the divisional playoff round.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs: 2-2

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 3-1 (I gouge my eyes out with a baking mixer, if this kid rolls off 8+ wins this playoff season. At some point this post-season I might just have to give in by jumping on the band wagon and using her picks.)

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)

A Cavaekid-like Elementary Logic: Have you ever seen a Raven fly into a Steel wall? Exactly!

Gambling Over Thought: The spread is three, the game is likely to be a three point game (five of the last seven meetings have been three point games), therefore, the best value is the Ravens. Assuming the game ends on three, playing the Ravens yields a worst-case push, while playing the Steelers yields a best-case push. One more over-thought – several books have moved this number to 3.5, meaning they are trying to entice Raven action.

Logic: The Steelers come into this game with several advantages – they’re as healthy as they have been all year; they’re rested; at home; their best offensive player (Mike Wallace) will cause matchup problems for the Ravens; and the Steelers defensive strength is against the running game, which neutralizes the Ravens best player, Ray Rice.

Caveat: The Steelers offensive line is not good. I am a little nervous that the Ravens will get some cheap points on a sack/fumble return or tipped pass interception return. A bettor cannot play a random play that, but it is in the back of my mind.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Baltimore +3, “I think that they can bust out a win again and I really don’t want the Steelers to win another Superbowl.”

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: The Packers are the home of the CheeseHeads, I love cheese!

Gambling Over Thought: I think we might have a bit of reverse hype on this game. Initially, there was so much Green Bay love that I think the Falcons actually became the public’s choice. Therefore the play is the Packers.

Logic: The week 12 game between these two teams essentially came down to three things – 1. The Packers inability to run the ball, which forced them to get cute inside the Falcon five with a back-to-back Aaron Rodgers sneaks, where he fumbled away the ball; 2. Mike McCarthy’s refusal to challenge a fourth down catch by Tony Gonzalez on a drive that culminated in a Falcon touchdown; and 3. The Packers shoddy kickoff coverage after tying the game, coupled with an unlucky facemask penalty that set the Falcons up in field goal range. Sum it up – the Packers are the better team.

Caveat: Betting on Mike McCarthy in a playoff game is a scary proposition, but he had the team ready to play last week. If he can avoid egregious clock management mistakes, the Packers should be fine.

Pick: Green Bay +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Atlanta -2.5, “I think that the Falcons will come out with this win and it will help them even more having support from their crowd.”

Seattle @ Chicago (-10.0)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: I love bears, but I think a Seahawk is like a shark that can fly. If that is the case then I think a Seahawk is the choice, since it would be able to fly in and take chunks out of the bear.

Gambling Over Thought: The Seahawks are just happy to have won a playoff game, they’re physically and emotionally spent. Just ask the 2008 Cardinals.

Logic: The week 12 game between these two teams, where the Seahawks won rather handedly, wasn’t a fluke. In fact, I think it could be argued that the game shouldn’t have been that close. The interesting thing about the Seahawks is that as a whole they’re a terrible football team, but they match-up well against a few teams. And when they match-up real, they actually look decent – the Bears are one of those teams.

Caveat: I turn in late to witness the Bears up 14-0, all that “logic” above is out the window.

Pick: Seattle +10.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Seattle +10, “I don’t think that the Bears can win by 10. I like the Bears but I think Seattle will keep the game close.”

NY Jets @ New England (-9.0)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: The Jets are green which is the color of money; the Patriots are red which is the color of blood – ’nuff said!

Gambling Over Thought: The 5.5 points the game has moved since it was played in week 13 is crazy. I trust that the three point spread for the week 13 game was a true representation of the relative strength of the teams. Now, I am supposed to buy into the numbers have varied by 5.5 over the last six weeks. No way, this line is a exaggeration based on the odds-makers knowing the public. Great value on the Jets.

Logic: It is very tough to erase that whooping the Pats gave the Jets. And you need a Quaalude to trust Mark Sanchez with your hard earned money. Those two things aside, the Jets are a comparable team, with enough talent to not only compete in this game, but also win outright. Getting nine points is a steal.

Caveat: The Patriots would enough more than to embarrass the Jets, so that means garbage time touchdown (always a fan favorite of the underdog bettor) will be tougher to come by.

Pick: NY Jets +9.0

CaveKid’s Pick: New York Jets +9, “The Jets totally blew the patriots out last time so I think that they will win again or lose by very little points.”

Me: I guess she is right if she is referring to the week 2 matchup.

 

NFL Week 18 Picks – Wildcard Weekend

It is redemption time for Caveman, who is licking his wounds after suffering his first losing NFL regular season since 2005. No worries, the second season is upon, the playoffs, a chance to put the last 9 weeks out of my memory (through week 8, I was 20 games over .500, from week 9-17 I was 24 games under .500).

How bad did it get? Bad enough that when I was casually asked who I thought would win the Packers/Eagles game this weekend, I made several points for both teams before finally breaking down in tears and admitting to the person, “Man, I just don’t know!”

And though I extended the SuperCave contest with CaveKid throughout the playoffs – completely dirty pool, I was down nine games, with very little chance to win, so I changed the rules, hey, it worked for David Stern – I was locked out when CaveKid went up 12 games on me last week. So, I added the Pro Bowl, NBA All-Star game and the first 10 picks of the NFL draft to the contest in order to give me a chance. Unfortunately, none of that matters if I cannot find a way to pick some winners in the playoffs.

But the playoffs represent either a way to double-up on a successful season or a second chance for a fledgling Sports investor. So, it’s back to the basics for the Caveman. That’s right my playoff motto is – “If I don’t kill it with my hands, I don’t eat”, so I have my club and homemade spear ready for the bloodletting.

Before we get started, let’s look back at prior playoff experience, called “the playoff rules
to live by”. And based on last year, I have some additions.

• Don’t overvalue playoff experience – Of course playoff experience is important but in the past five years we have seen Arizona (a franchise with one playoff win in 50 seasons) go the Super Bowl, Norv Turner (Norv Turner!) win three playoff games, Bill Cowher and Tony Dungy win Super Bowls and rookie head coaches winning playoff games (John Harbaugh, Sean Payton and Jim Caldwell). This rule is especially true on the defensive side of the ball, where younger, hungrier defenders are in better physical shape to hold up to the grueling NFL. Veteran players, about now, are praying for a vacation. Along those same lines be wary of teams with a vast amount of playoff mileage, like Baltimore this season. The Ravens have an aging defensive that has played a third of an extra season in the last three years. That has a major impact.
  
• Pick the winner – This rule tailed off a bit in 2004-2006, but generally you can count on the winner covering the spread in at least 9 of the 11 games. Last year the winner was 10-1 against the spread. Simple enough, right? If New Orleans can’t lose this weekend, then play them.
  
• Remember the public loves betting the favorites – The public, aka as the “Squares”, feel much more comfortable betting the perceived better team or favored team. For that reason, the underdogs can be had at metro Phoenix homes prices, aka great value.
  
• Find the ceiling – Draw a comparison between the most recent, best performance for each team. That would generally be each teams ceiling and generally we would expect to see teams come close to their ceiling in the playoffs.
  

The lines from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

New Orleans (-10) @ Seattle – I invoke the “Don’t pick an underdog unless you truly believe they can win the game” and the “Pick the winner” rules for this game, because there is no way the Seahawks are winning this game. It’s quite simple had the Rams (the Seahawks ceiling game) shown up last Sunday to play football, the Seahawks would be enjoying the 41^st consecutive day of rain in the Seattle/Tacoma area by sitting at home watching the Rams battle the Saints. The Saints would have most likely been favored by 7.5 over the Rams. And I would’ve loved the Rams in that game!

The Seabags have no chance to win this game because Sean Payton is not Steve Spagnuolo. Spags convinced himself, his staff and probably the players that the Seahawks were a better team. He coached as though he wanted to keep the game close, hoping to pull it out in the final minutes. Thanks, Spags for the kick in the nuts!

And as luck would have it, we have an awesome, recent history comparison for these two teams that involves each teams ceiling game. The Saints ceiling game was their week 16 win against Atlanta. In week 15 the Seahawks played the Falcons and lost (the Seahawks nine losses were all by 15 or more points, prompting to wonder if can start calling a 15+ point loss a “Seahawk”, instead of Saints destroy the Seahawks, we would Saints Seahawk the Seahawks) by three touchdowns. In week 17, the Seahawks ceiling game came against the Rams, who were inexplicably coached by Radio Kennedy for that game. The Saints played the Rams team, albeit coached by Steve Spagnuolo, in week 14. The results – Seahawks win by 10, Saints win by 18. Pretty close, but when taken into account the coaching discrepancy (from Spags to Radio) and the fact that the Rams game was not the Saints ceiling game I think it’s painfully obvious that the only play on this game is the Saints or pray for a backdoor Seahawks cover.

I am telling you the backdoor won’t be open, I am merely suggesting that I am not risking my shot at immortality (11-0) on the hope that Chas Whitehurst or Matty “IceBag” can muster a late game drive to bring the Seahawks within 10 points.

Pick: New Orleans -10

CaveKid’s Pick: Seattle +10.5, “New Orleans let me down last week. I don’t think that the Saints have what it takes to go all the way this year.”

Me: Look she’s being at this all of four weeks and she is already embittered.

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5) – Once you get past the Peyton Manning doesn’t lose night games, at home, in the playoffs logic, the argument for the Colts gets very thin, I mean Lindsay Lohan life implosion of 2009, thin!

For starters, look at last year when these two teams battled for the AFC title game – the Jets have gotten better, while the Colts, with their massive injuries are worse. That was a game the Jets led at half, but ran out of gas in the second half; could the upgrades the Jets made this season be the difference. Uh, yes!

Let’s also look at the “Manning Theory”, is he really unbeatable, more importantly can Manning really be trusted? Let’s think back to happier times in the past, where betting against Manning was a staple of the playoffs, where we basically planned our entire post-season gambling around betting against Manning? Save for one crazy, everything going perfectly post-season, Manning is still, as Boomer Esiason put it, “the Dan Marino of this generation.” Simply put if the Pats complete a 3^rd and 3 in the 4^th quarter of the 2006 AFC Championship, Manning has no titles, but a plethora of post-season failure. And last year was no different, as Manning choked on the big stage in the Super Bowl.

Further, the Jets are built to win this year. I got the impression that the Colts were begging to die at the end of the season – please someone win this division so we don’t have to play another game, but essentially won the division by default when Jacksonville pulled a Jacksonville at the end of the season. Even in week 17 the Colts allowed the Titans to be one Kerry Collins fumble away from backing into the playoffs with a loss.

Finally, the odds-makers cleverly posted the number at a very enticing -2.5, begging the public to jump all over the Colts.

Pick: NY Jets +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Indianapolis -2.5, “Last week I picked the Jags and the Colts ended up beating them and they pulled through.”

Me: Uh, the Jags didn’t play Colts last week! And that, my friends, is the person who beat me by twelve games in a four week mini-contest.

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Kansas City – As late as Thursday I was firmly in the Chiefs camp, for the reasons that they were a solid home team with a great crowd; they could run the ball effectively against anyone, including the Ravens; and they have the dream team coaching staff with a wealth of experience. Plus, I heard the sharps were all-in on Kansas City based on them being a home team underdog. Solid logic, but home team underdogs are right around .500 in the playoffs since the 2000 season, when the underdogs were golden at 4-0. So, the ice was beginning to crack, then I decided to have a conversation with my buddy C-Man, who is a huge Chiefs fan. The last thing I thought I would hear was the following exchange:

Me: “How you feeling about the Ravens?”

C-Man: “Oh, man, did you see how bad we looked against the Raiders? We’re going to get killed by the Ravens.”

Me: “Come on, that game was meaningless. I think they have a real shot to beat the Ravens.”

C-Man: “Nah, I don’t think so. They have lost for so long now that I expect to lose games like this. I wasn’t even born when they won their last big playoff game they won.”

Me: “That’s true. But you’re at home and that place will be rabid.”

C-Man: “I am just happy they hung on to the division. . .”

 

And with those words, I immediately began to re-think my pick. Maybe C-Man doesn’t speak for the majority of Chiefs fans, but my guess is he represents a fair portion of the Chiefs supporters. And I forgot about how historically bad the Chiefs have been at Arrowhead in the playoffs – lost to the Colts as a 14-2 top seed, lost to the Broncos as a 13-3 top seed and lost to the Colts as a 12-4 number two seed. Let’s imagine that something goes bad early, Arrowhead will end up being like a family holiday meal when someone, in the middle of dinner, announces their gay.

 

Throw in these additional factors – Charlie Weis needs to get to Florida to finalize the recruiting class; Dwayne Bowe is sick; the Ravens expectations were they are a Super Bowl team while there is a bit of truth in the feeling that the Chiefs are happy to be in the playoffs; and Matt Cassel is three weeks removed from an appendectomy, three weeks, my guess is he is healed completely but he body has to be wearing down, right? I mean the guy had an appendectomy three weeks ago!

 

Adding it all up – the “injuries”, distractions for the Chiefs trump out the two obvious playoff rules, “when in doubt back the house” (the Ravens are clearly getting the money) and “over-value experience”. If the Chiefs cover this spread, It is as if I am telling the odds-makers, “Thank you! May I have another”, after they have repeatedly swatted me with Dean Wormer’s wooden plank.

 

Pick: Baltimore -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Baltimore -3, “Even though they don’t have home field advantage the Ravens defense will dominate this game.”

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2.5) – This week I was perusing Ebay, looking for bandwagon seats. Much to my surprise the supply of Eagles bandwagon seats limitless, while the Packers were in short supply and priced in the Red Sox/Yankee “Monster” seat range. Doesn’t it feel like three weeks ago everyone was anointing the Eagles as the best team in the NFC? And now I have heard more than a few “experts” proclaiming that the Packers will be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.

 

Hmmm, that’s quite praise for a team that needed a once in a lifetime comeback (Eagles over Giants) just to have a chance to make the playoffs. After destroying the lifeless Giants, the Packers needed only to beat a Bears team with absolutely nothing to play for. The Packers barely escaped with a win. I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves here.

 

This definitely falls into the “hype machine” and “side with house” rules, but here are two other rules favoring the Eagles – 1. “Never back a shaky quarterback on the road”, I realize Rodgers is all-world, but as we have found out with several players once you sustain a concussion you’re more susceptible to sustaining additional concussions, therefore Rodgers is one moderate hit away from Matt Flynn taking snaps on Sunday. And believe the last thing you want to see if you tune in late to the game is Matt Flynn playing quarterback. Just flush your money down the drain.; and 2. “Coaching is magnified”, I do not trust Mike McCarthy one bit. Whether it’s botched clock management or pig-headed stubbornness that causes him to stick to an ineffective game plan, McCarthy has yet to prove he can take care of business in a road playoff game. I know that Andy Reid struggles with game management as well, but McCarthy basically null and voids that would be advantage.

 

Need more proof that the Eagles are the lock of the weekend? I offer up the additional supporting evidence –a. History – the Andy Reid Eagles are traditionally excellent in the first round of the playoffs especially at home; b. The Packers cannot put teams away because they have no running game; and c. It never ends well for over-hyped teams that need a miracle to make the playoffs. A perfect example would be the 2000 Rams, who got a Christmas day miracle when the Bears (9 point underdog) upset the Lions in Detroit. All of a sudden the pundits were talking about how the Rams were headed back to the Super Bowl because they posed the most problems for the top two seeds, the NY Giants (their opponent in round 2) and Minnesota (their likely opponent in the NFC Championship). Problem was, the Rams had to get by the Saints. And as my good buddy Winston Wolf proclaimed, “The Rams started sucking on each other’s lollipops a little early.” (Or something like that)!

 

Pick: Philadelphia -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Green bay +2.5, “They’ve beat Philly before and they will defiantly do it again. It doesn’t matter if I’m right because I’ve already taken down Caveman!”

Me: CaveKid should watch the movie “The Great Santini”, I am like Robert Duvall’s character, this contest isn’t going to end until I WIN!

Bonus Pick – Oregon +2 over Auburn. Oregon is fast. I know, I know Auburn is big and fast, but here is the deal – I don’t think Auburn will be prepared for the pace at which Oregon plays. Plus, Cam Newton, post-Heisman banquet circuit, will look like Jamarcus Russell, the 380 pound version!

NFL Week 17 Picks – Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!

I love the all-division games for week 17. In honor of that I am doing a quick pick, with a 2010 lasting impression for each team and a recap of my pre-season prediction.

Also, I have some good news the SuperCave contest has been extended through the playoffs (when I create the contest, I can change the rules to fit my needs, which loosely translated means I am getting drilled by CaveKid).

Season Totals: 115-119-6 (.500) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 35-43-2 (294^th) (3-2 last week)

SuperCave Contest Standings

G-Dub	38-26
CaveKid	36-28
Caveman	27-37

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

And this week the SuperContest lines are crazy due to the late information, so here are my week 17 picks: Green Bay -6.5, Dallas +12.0, Houston +2.5, New England -3.0 and St. Louis -3.0

NFC SOUTH

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Carolina: 10-6 (Second NFC South, loss in wildcard game) – Whoops! Somehow I thought this team had some talent and losing Jake Delhomme would be such a huge upgrade that could grab at least two more wins.

Atlanta: 9-7 (Third in NFC South) – I thought before the season they were a solid, but forgettable team.

2010 Lasting impression:

Carolina: The turd Matt Moore laid in game one against the Giants. Moore threw two terrible interceptions in the red zone against the Giants in a game that was very winnable. The Panthers never recovered.

Atlanta: The Roddy White stiff-arm, “uncalled”, pass interference against the Ravens. That play exemplified the Falcons good fortune this season. Will that continue in the playoffs? We shall see.

Picks:

Caveman, Atlanta -14.0, The Falcons need this game or they face the possibility of having to go on the road in the playoffs.

Cavekid’s Pick, Atlanta -14 -”the Falcons beat the Panthers by 21 points last time and being at home will help them win again.”

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-7.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Tampa Bay: 5-11 (Fourth in NFC South) – Who knew that Josh Freeman when combined with young hungry defenders and young skilled players on offense would be enough to compensate for a terrible head coach? Not me.

New Orleans: 11-5 (First NFC South, loss in NFC Championship) – The schedule didn’t seem too terribly tough and generally the Super Champ makes back to the playoffs.

2010 Lasting impression:

Tampa Bay: The two heart-breaking losses to Atlanta, where both games were incredibly winnable.

New Orleans: The fumble by Heath Miller in the week 8 game against the Steelers. The Steelers were driving for at least a field goal to tie and possibly the winning touchdown which would have left the Saints at 4-4. After the game the schedule got easier and you could almost hear the Saints tell the world, “Well, if you’re not going to knock us out after these eight games, then we might as well win it again!”

Picks:

Caveman, Tampa Bay +7.0 – Once the Saints look at the scoreboard and see the Falcons up 21 points, Payton will call off the dogs.

Cavekid’s Pick, New Orleans -7.0 – “I mean the Saints haven’t done anything wrong that would keep them from winning.”

NFC NORTH

Chicago @ Green Bay (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Chicago: 5-11 (Fourth NFC North) – I still think this team is no better than an eight win team. I am very much looking forward to the divisional playoff round where the Bears will be favored over either the Eagles or Saints. Cha-Ching!

Green Bay: 12-4(First NFC North, Super Bowl XLV champions) – So, you’re saying there is still a chance.

2010 Lasting impression:

Chicago: The 36-3 ass-whooping the Patriots gave them, which I think is more representative of them as a team than any other game on the schedule.

Green Bay: The Desean Jackson punt return against the Giants, which put the Packers in position to control their own destiny. Without that the lasting memory for the Packers would be the moronic Aaron Rodgers jaunt through the middle of Ford Field, like he was chasing an overthrown frisbee in Central Park.

Picks:

Caveman, Green Bay -9.5 – I have to admit it would be so Mike McCarthy-like for the Packers to lose this game.

Cavekid’s Pick, Chicago +9.5 -”I think that the Bears will win again, even if they don’t the game will be close.”

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Minnesota: 8-8 (Second in NFC North) – Nailed it! I missed by a couple of games, but my general feeling was Favre would destroy this team.

Detroit: 6-10 (Third in NFC North) – All that stands between 6-10 and third place is the Vikings. Consider it done.

2010 Lasting impression:

Minnesota: Brett Favre laying motionless on the frozen Minnesota turf in week 15 against the Bears. I can’t say I wasn’t cheering!

Detroit: The Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in week one against the Bears. That single play may have flipped this division in the Bears favor and at the same time cost the Lions an early season surge of momentum. Is the football world ready for the Lions and Rams playing for the 2011 NFC Championship? Just remember, you heard it here first!

Picks:

Caveman, Detroit -3.5 – I am not buying into Joe Webb quite yet, but by all means fantasy freaks put himn in your top 10 amongst quarterbacks for next year.

Cavekid’s Pick, Minnesota+3.5 – “The Vikings logo is much cooler than the Lion which is plain and blue.”

NFC WEST

St. Louis (-3.0) @ Seattle

Pre-season predictions:

St. Louis: 3-13 (Fourth in NFC West) – I didn’t count on – 1. Bradford staying healthy; 2. Bradford being this good; 3. The NFC West being this ridiculously bad; and 4.the Rams defense stepping up just enough.

Seattle: 7-9 (Second in NFC West) – Pretty much what I expected – mediocrity.

2010 Lasting impression:

St. Louis: The stand at the end of the Broncos game. The Rams did everything they could to lose that game – go conservative on offense; they gave up huge chunks of yardage in the middle of the field when burning time was in their favor; and they had a special teams breakdown at a critical time. But the defense rose up, stopped the Broncos which allowed the Rams to escape with a win.

Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck pulling up lame after scoring a touchdown against the Bucs in week 16. Now the Seahawks are most likely left starting Johnny Depp at quarterback for the biggest game of the season. Oh yeah, they and the 12^th man are 3 point underdogs because of this.

Picks:

Caveman, St. Louis -3.0 – Yep, I am taking a rookie quarterback on the road in a winner-take-all matchup. A lot of that is the Charlie Whitehurst factor, but some of it is the fact that the Seahawks are treating this like a bowl game – yesterday they toured the Space Needle.

Cavekid’s Pick, St. Louis -3 – “You have to support one of your favorite teams.”

Arizona @ San Francisco (-6.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Arizona: 6-10 (3^rd place in NFC West) – Exactly what I thought – though I didn’t count on them getting wins against the Saints or Cowboys.

San Francisco: 9-7 (NFC West Champ, loss in Wildcard round) – So, I wasn’t all-in on the 49ers like most of the “experts” (one moron had the 49ers at 12-4), but in my wildest dreams I couldn’t imagine that they wouldn’t at least win 6 games (division games).

2010 Lasting impression:

Arizona: All the way back in the pre-season, the very first pass to Larry Fitzgerald was high, forcing Fitz to leap and take a hit that cost the rest of the pre-season. The result the offense was never in-sync causing Whisenhunt into the “Max Hall” (who is a dead ringer for Matt Saracen) experiment. The rest is history. Either that or Derek Anderson just sucks!

San Francisco: Mike Singletary holding up his index finger asking the referees for one more second in the week 16 game against the Rams. The irony was thick as the 49ers seemingly had “one more” opportunity every week and just wouldn’t die.

Picks:

Caveman, Arizona +6.0, Whisenhunt has the Cardinals playing hard to the end. The 49ers cannot wait to get out of the locker room to start their off-season.

Cavekid’s Pick, San Francisco -6 -”The Cardinals suck.”

NFC EAST

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Dallas: 11-5 (Second NFC East, loss in divisional round) – This team was doomed from the start. I should’ve known, but I am a sucker for overly talented teams coached by the Pillsbury dough boy.

Philadelphia: 11-5 (First NFC East, loss in divisional round) – 11-5 was based on Kevin Kolb, had I known Vick was going to be the Brady with legs-clone, I might have had them at 13-3.

2010 Lasting impression:

Dallas: Game one against the Redskins. The Tashard Choice senseless fumble before half and the holding call on the game winning touchdown optimized the Boys 2010 campaign.

Philadelphia: The Minnesota game in week 16. Not only did it cost the Eagles a bye, but The Vikings gave the league the blueprint on how to contain Vick. Plus, they beat on Vick repeatedly and lower body injuries do not heal at this time of year.

Picks:

Caveman, Dallas +3.0 – The Vikings also gifted gamblers the Cowboys in week 17.

Cavekid’s Pick, Dallas +3 – “having home field advantage will help the Cowboys to keep the game close.”

Me – And I am nine games behind someone who lucks into picks because they cannot figure out the correct home team.

NY Giants (-3.5) @ Washington

Pre-season predictions:

NY Giants: 9-7 (Third in NFC East) – Another impressive call by Caveman! Though without the D-Jax punt return the Giants are most likely the #2 seed.

Washington: 7-9 (Fourth in NFC East) – I debated between 6 and 7 wins for the Skins, but ultimately I decided to go with 7 because a buddy of mine was adamant that the addition of McNabb and Shanahan was enough for at least three wins. That’s what I get for listening to my buddies. And, my buddy Paul, is begging for Giants to mail this game in, so he can cover his over 6.5 win total on the Skins.
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2010 Lasting impression:

NY Giants: Tom Coughlin dressing down his punter after failing to kick the ball out of bounds. Yea, Tom it’s all Dodge’s fault.
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Washington: The pulling of McNabb for the two minute drill against the Detroit because of his conditioning. Little do we know that Shanahan fell out of love with McNabb in week two.

Picks:

Caveman, NY Giants -3.5 – So, the Giants will pummel the Redskins on the faint hope that the Bears show up against the Packers. By the time the Giants get the news the Packers are winning handedly, they should be up by 21.

Cavekid’s Pick, New York Giants -3.5 -”Even though Washington has home field advantage I still think they will get crushed by the mighty Giants.”

AFC EAST

Miami @ New England (-5.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Miami: 9-7 (Second AFC East) – After a 2-0 road start the feeling was this might be the best team in the AFC. They soon leveled out their productive road efforts with atrocious home play.

New England: 12-4 (First AFC East, loss in Super Bowl) – In hindsight, I’m not sure why I thought this team would win 12 games, except for the fact that Belichick makes other coaches wet their pants.

2010 Lasting impression:

Miami: The Roethlisberger fumble game, the Dolphins played tough that game but as was the case more often than not, came away empty.

New England: The Browns game. Somehow this team got whipped in Cleveland, which I think is a pre-cursor to the playoffs.

Picks:

Caveman, New England -5.0 To their credit they play week 17 like any other week regardless of the situation, damn be the Welker injury.

CaveKid’s Pick, New England -5 – “The Patriots killed (literally) the Dolphins last game. I think it’s a safe bet on the Patriots.”

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-10)

Pre-season predictions:

Buffalo: 4-12 (Fourth AFC East) – They play hard but they’re the Northwestern of the AFC East.

NY Jets: 8-8 (Third AFC East) – I would be smiling from ear to ear if the Jets didn’t pull out the Browns, Lions and Texans games.

2010 Lasting impression:

Buffalo: The Steve Johnson dropped pass of a game winning touchdown against the Steelers. Yea, it’s only one game but bad teams find ways to lose. This is an example of how close, yet how far away, this Bills is to being a factor in December.

NY Jets: The gang rape in Foxboro. You cannot get whupped 45-3 after all the smack talk by Rexy.

Picks:

Caveman, Buffalo +1.0 – The Jets are going to mail in this game.

CaveKid’s Pick, New York Jets -1 – “Even though I think the jets suck reeaallllyyy bad!, I think they can win this one.”

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Cleveland

Pre-season predictions:

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (Second AFC North, loss in wildcard round) – I put too much into the Roethlisberger suspension. I figured they would be lucky to be 2-2 without Roethlisberger and then struggles for a couple games with him.

Cleveland: 4-12 (Fourth in AFC North) – I downgraded them because of the quarterback; I mean what team in their right mind signs Jake Delhomme after what they witnessed him in Carolina?

2010 Lasting impression:

Pittsburgh: The beating at the hands of the Patriots. They won’t say it out loud, but every Steelers fan knows they cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. So, they’re left to root for either the Ravens, Colts, or, gulp, Jets to knock New England out of the playoffs prior to the AFC championship.

Cleveland: The Jets game, where the Browns went from a likely win to virtually guaranteed to tie to a mind-blowing loss (think about the investors who bought into Browns stock that week).

Picks:

Caveman, Pittsburgh -5.5 – Tough one here, but the Steelers need this game and you have to think they break out the whooping stick.

CaveKid’s Pick, Pittsburgh -5.5 – “Being away won’t stop Worthlessberger from playing a good game and leading his team to a victory.”

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Cincinnati: 6-10 (Third AFC North) – I figured 2009 was an aberration for the Bengals, but I had no idea they would be this bad.

Baltimore: 12-4 (First AFC North, loss in AFC Championship) – In my book they underachieved this season, their losses were all close, winnable games (Bengals by 5, Steelers by 3, Falcons by 5 and Patriots by 3 in OT). Of course, a lot of their wins were close, losable games.

2010 Lasting impression:

Cincinnati: Blowing a 28-7 lead to the Bills, at home no less. And they didn’t just lose they got blown out!

Baltimore: The home loss to the Steelers. The only way they lose that game it to let the Steelers defense make a huge play and that’s exactly what they did.

Picks:

Caveman, Cincinnati +9.5 – The Bengals always play the Ravens tough, plus there is something to the theory that Cincy is a better team without the theatrics Ocho and TO create.

CaveKid’s Pick, Cincinnati +9.5 – “I’m pretty sure a Bengal can take down a raven like that. I’ve seen it done before.”

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Tennessee: 9-7 (Third AFC South) – The Titans, early in the season, looked poised to post a 9 or 10 win season, but then the Jeff Fisher/Vince Young thing happened.

Indianapolis: 11-5 (1^st place AFC South, loss in Divisional round) – By default, but they’re going to be hard pressed to get past Baltimore in the wildcard round.

2010 Lasting impression:

Tennessee: Vince Young throwing his gear into the stands. That is so classic that I started thinking about “what if” other professionals did the same thing. Imagine a judge whipping his grim reaper gown and gavel into the audience of a court; or a plumber launching a well used plunger into the middle of a customer’s living room. The possibilities are endless!

Indianapolis: The Patriots game where Manning threw the back-breaking (Ya think so, doctor!) interception when the Colts were in comfortable field goal range. That play foreshadowed the next two games for the Colts where seemingly every other Manning pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Picks:

Caveman, Indianapolis -9.5 – Come on, no way Manning allows this game to be close.

CaveKid’s pick, Tennessee +9.5, “I think that the Titans will keep it close like last game.”

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Jacksonville: 7-9 (Fourth AFC South) – I knew they would end up with either 7, 8 or 9 wins, but I figured with the Texans making the leap, that would be enough to keep the Jags below .500.

Houston: 10-6 (Second place AFC South, loss wildcard round) – By far my worst call in the AFC, and yet, if Andre Johnson doesn’t fumble against the Chargers, Joel Dreessen (who?) doesn’t fumble against the Jags, if the Texans secondary decides to cover Braylon Edwards and Schuab doesn’t throw that back-breaking pick-6 against the Ravens, the Texans would be 10-6.

2010 Lasting impression:

Jacksonville: It would be easy to go with the hail-mary against the Texans, but for me it was the Garrard interception that led to the Redskins game winning field goal in week 16. Most Jaguar fans have never completely trusted Garrard, but they had started to buy into him this season and then BAM, a weak, falling backwards, pass to the outside that ends the Jaguar season, just like that.

Houston: There are so many to choose from. But I think I will take the current headline – “Kubiak to return as Texans coach”. Really? Wow, just wow, that’s unreal, what does this guy have to do to get fired? It’s as if the Texans owner is buying to the just plain ‘ol “bad luck” theory.

Picks:

Caveman, Houston -3.0 – The Texans failed in their attempts to Kubiak fired so they might as well win this game.

CaveKid’s Pick, Jacksonville +3, “I’m sure Houston will crap their pants again just like they did last week when I picked them to win.”

Me – Even CaveKid thinks Kubiak should be fired!

AFC WEST

San Diego (-3.5) @ Denver

Pre-season predictions:

San Diego: 10-6 (First AFC West, loss in divisional round) – Only Norv Turner can take a 14 win team loaded with young talent and turn them into a playoff spectator.

Denver: 5-11 (Third place AFC West) – I thought this team would be a mess with an average defense and no identity on offense.

2010 Lasting impression:

San Diego: The first loss to Oakland. That was a microcosm of the Chargers season, horrible start (two blocked punts), rally to take the lead, yet ultimately find a way to blow the game (Raiders second game and Bengals last week).

Denver: The Tim Tebow era. Say what you want about Tebow but the guy battles and battles and battles! He’s that kid who kept coming back until he finally won the fight.

Picks:

Caveman, Denver +3.5 – Tebow is a gift to sports investors.

CaveKid’s Pick , San Diego -3.5, “The Chargers simply have a much better record and are a better team than the Broncos.”

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Oakland: 4-12 (Fourth AFC West) – Originally I had the Raiders pegged as my surprise team, but when I told a buddy of mine, he informed me that the Raiders “were everyone’s surprise team”! That was enough to get me off their scent and onto the Panthers. Ugh!

Kansas City: 6-10 (Second place AFC West) – Wow, I really butchered this division. I definitely thought the Chiefs would be better, but not playoff material nor a team that could weather the storm when things got crazy. But the Chiefs did both.

2010 lasting impression:

Oakland: The 35-yard missed field goal by Sebastian Janikowski against the Cardinals in week 3. That loss haunted them the entire year. A win there turns the week 16 game against the Colts from meaningless to meaningful and this game against the Chiefs into a matchup for the division. But it’s not like the Raiders burned a high draft pick on Janikowski, right?

Kansas City: The St. Louis game. The Chiefs, coming off a drubbing by the Chargers the prior week, fell behind the Rams 6-0. With the division slipping away, the Chiefs pulled it together, beat the Rams and then got an early Christmas present as the Raiders beat the Chargers – division over!

Picks:

Caveman, Kansas City -3.0 - Charlie Weis is leaving the Chiefs to take the OC job at Florida? Of course he is, I mean he was such a great head coach in college, why not continue to pursue that path.

CaveKid’s Pick , Oakland +3.0 – “My dad always says “hey Chief” and he sometimes adds “you suck!” so I’m going to have to favor the Raiders.”

Me – And you thought J.D. McCoy had it rough with his pops!

NFL Week 16 Picks – Part III, the Final Chapter!

The remaining week 16 picks.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 109-109-6 (.500) (7-9 last week)

LHSC: 32-41-2 (305^th) (3-2 last week)

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	29-19
G-Dub	28-20
Caveman	21-27

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-6.5) – The Bucs are done, in fact when they blew that game to the Falcons a couple weeks ago, I think they packed it in for the season. They had a nice season, but they were in the wrong division and ran out of gas at the wrong time. No shame in that. Seattle meanwhile is playing for their playoff lives. A loss means they need help, win and they merely have to beat the Rams at home to win the worst division in the history of divisions. At this time of year you have to be very leery of backing teams with nothing to play for playing against teams still alive.

And, yes, I know the Seahawks haven’t lost a game this season by less than 15 points, so I am playing the Hawks to win. Because of this. . .
Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Seahawks – A gift card worth enough points to keep a road blowout close. How in the world did this team win in Chicago?

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Buccaneers – This might come as a surprise but my gift the Bucs is that Dallas comes a calling on head coach Raheem Morris. The Cowboys offer him a boatload of money that he cannot refuse. I guess you can count me in the unimpressed corner of the job Raheem has done. The Bucs also have a ton of young talent that is poised to take the next step next year, but not with Raheem at the helm.
Pick: Seattle +6.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Tampa Bay -6.5, “I think that being the home team will help them win.”

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-5.0) – The Chiefs are playing for a division title which should bring a great effort. The Titans won their Super Bowl last week against the Texans. Yea, I realize that is surprising considering the Texans are very forgettable, but I believe the Titans took that 21-0 thumping at the hands of the Texans personal and they vowed to play one more game to avenge it. With that out of the way, look for the Chiefs to run wild.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Titans – One yard. Eleven years ago the Titans fell a single yard short of perhaps winning the Super Bowl in overtime. Since then, the Titans have twice lost as the conference top seed, both times to the Ravens, despite out-gaining and out-playing them. That is a little bit like losing a fantasy football semi-final game to a guy who starts Nate Burleson, Brent Celek and Cedric Benson, but I digress. The Titans seem to be in disarray, so much so that the only potential answer for them is to fire a very serviceable head coach in Jeff Fisher. Of course this all works into the diabolical scheme of the NFL, to get Fisher as the head coach of the Los Angeles (where is he beloved) Vikings (or Jaguars or Bills or Cardinals).

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Chiefs – “The Playoffs”. For the Chiefs they have control of their destiny with two very winnable home games.

Pick: Kansas City -5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Tennessee +5, “I don’t really like the Chiefs and since the Titans are coming off a win I think they can win again. “

NY Jets @ Chicago (-1.0) – The Bears won the division last week, they are pretty much guaranteed a three seed, since I don’t see them going to Lambeau and winning in week 17, therefore they don’t have much to play for. Plus, they’re on a short week and hung over from the celebration. The Jets on the other hand need this game badly. They cannot afford to go into next week needing to win to get in. And even though the game is against the Bills, can you imagine the eerie feeling in the “New Meadowlands”. We’re talking about 42 years of failing here. If anything goes against the Jets, the entire crowd will have the “Lovie Smith” look, you know “is he alive” look.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Jets – A time machine. Not so they can a show up for the Pats game, but so Rex Ryan can go back in time and decide against filming those feet videos. Wow, man! To refer to those videos as creepy and uncomfortable is the understatement of the year. I will tell you this, publically the Jets players are supportive, but behind closed doors, Rex is getting clowned worse than Chris Moltisanti after Tony Soprano and Chris’ fiancée Adriana had the car accident (it’s a good thing Adriana didn’t bite down, ba-da-boom).

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Bears – 2010 NFC North Division Championship rings. It’s a little like how the Phoenix Suns have celebrated their few division titles, with a gigantic banner and a parade. They celebrate that way because they aren’t going any further. I honestly cannot wait to bet against the Bears in the playoffs.

G-Dub’s Week 16 Picks

Carolina +14.5

Dallas -7.0

Tampa Bay -6.5

Tennessee +5

Chicago -1

St. Louis -2.5

Cleveland +3.5

Cincinnati +7.5

Jacksonville -7

Detroit +3.5

New England -7.5

Green Bay -3

Houston -2.5

Oakland +3

Minnesota +14.5

New Orleans +2.5

Pick: NY Jets +1.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Chicago -1, “I like the Bears much more than I do the Jets. Mike Ditka coached them well.”

San Francisco @ St. Louis (-2.5) – Sam Bradford hasn’t been the same since he threw that devastating pick -6 against the Saints. That type of mistake is common place for rookies, but Bradford seemed to be immune. He appeared to be top of every decision, almost as if he was invincible to that type of devastation. Now he’s a little more like Ganz after Nolte shot him – “What I can’t believe it, I threw a 96 yard pick six, arrrrrrhhhhh!” It doesn’t end well for Ganz and my guess is it won’t for Sammy either, at least this year.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the 49ers – Making the playoffs and winning a home playoff game. That way 49er management will not only keep Mike Singletary but also choose to extend his contract. Oh wait, that’s the 49er anti-Christmas gift.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Rams – Eleven points. The Rams could take those 11 points to turn three losses into three wins, which would mean they are winners of the NFC West.

Pick: San Francisco +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – St Louis -2.5, “They lost last time but I believe in the Rams.”

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Cleveland – I am going against the “something to play for” versus “nothing to play for” play here, simply because the Browns haven’t forgotten that the Ravens were the Browns before Art Modell moved them to B-More.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Ravens – A killer instinct. The Ravens have allowed way too many back door covers this season and that is a result of two things – 1. A soft head coach who pulls on the reins way too early; and 2. A team that doesn’t trust their running game in a key spots. They need to get that sorted out before the post-season or it’s going to be a quick trip.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Browns – Something, anything good on the sports scene in Cleveland. A Browns win on Sunday would be a great start.

Pick: Cleveland +3.5, LHSC – Cleveland +3.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Baltimore -3.5, “The Ravens won by 7 last time, so I think that they can win by 4 easily.”

San Diego (-7.5) @ Cincinnati – No TO, no chance for the Bengals, unless somehow Cedric Benson can duplicate his miraculous effort from last week. It was nice to see Ced for, what, the second time this season. You have to love fantasy football, right, where anyone who benefitted from Ced last week either doesn’t pay much attention or has a roster so thin that Ced was actually a play. However, kudos to Cedric and those fantasy owners who stuck with him, don’t look for it to happen again.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Chargers – Two Kansas City wins. With two KC wins, the Chargers miss the playoffs which will lead to Norv Turner being fired! Honestly, Norv took over a 14-2 team loaded with young talent and the Chargers have two playoff wins to show for it.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Bengals – For a limited time only, Caveman is offering the following special – Hire a new head coach and get a new quarterback for free! The Bengals cannot enter the 2011 season with Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer can they? Can they?

Pick: San Diego -7.5

CaveKid’s Pick – San Diego -7.5, “The Broncos are having a bad season and I like the Chargers chances in this game.”

Me – “I assume that CaveKid meant the Bengals; But it’s possible with the lead she has that she is already looking ahead to week 17!”

Washington @ Jacksonville (-7.0) – So Donovan McNabb strongly disagrees with the decision to start Rex Grossman? Hmmm, looks to me like Shanahan is on to something with Rex, who gives the Redskins a chance to lose with dignity.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Redskins – That Daniel Synder decides to sell the Redskins to pursue philanthropic opportunities.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Jaguars – This is like the family Christmas gift that dad gets to buy, where it’s like Madden or some rated “M” shooting game like “Call of Duty”, purely selfish – the Colts to lose a game, while the Jaguars win both their remaining games. The selfish part, I want to be able to bet against the Jags in the Wildcard playoff round.

Pick: Washington +7.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Washington +7, “Their colors remind me of Christmas and I think that they will keep the game close.”

Me – “What family doesn’t pose for their Christmas wearing burgundy and yellow?”

Detroit @ Miami (-3.5) – One of the things that “square” bettors (I know I am a square bettor, but I’m trying, Ringo, I’m trying real hard to be a sharp’erd) do is overreact to the previous weeks results. Right now everything is overvaluing the Lions and under-valuing the Dolphins. First off, the Lions beat a team that is begging for golfing season to start. Secondly, the Bills are a scrappy team. And lastly, the Lions are still the Lions!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Lions – Socks. Everybody needs socks, right? Think of me as the Lions kid, who has to get them something, so I get them socks! Worst. Gift. Ever. Now think of me as the Lions opening the gift – I give them a sarcastic “Thanks” as I think to myself, “Are you effing kidding me? I need health for Matthew Stafford or cajones in close games and they get me socks? Socks! ”

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Dolphins – A cure for Ecophobia, which of course is a fear of being at home.

Pick: Miami -3.5, LHSC: Miami-3.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Miami -3.5, “I think that the Dolphins will be able to handle the cold better than the lions.”

Me – “Have you heard about the blizzard heading to South Florida? Me neither! And I am eight games behind CaveKid!”

New England (-7.5) @ Buffalo – Surprisingly the weather in Buffalo is going to be decent for this game. I think that favors the Bills, since the Pats are a much better running team, both offensively and defensively. Plus, the Bills always play the Pats tough in Buffalo.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Patriots – A shot of humility. The entire Boston sports scene is crazy good right now, and has been for the past decade. So much so that I think Pats fans, especially need to step back a bit and remember that in the past five years the Pats have lost playoff games to Denver, where the great Tom Brady threw a devastating pick-6; Indianapolis, where they held a 21-3 lead; NY Giants, where they were 18-0 and held the lead with less than two minutes to play; and to Baltimore where they were blown away at home. It might be a little early to start, what was that classic Winston Wolf saying, uh, celebrating.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Bills – A bucket of stick’em. The Bills lost three games this season because they either couldn’t catch an easy pass or fumbled the football away.

Pick: Buffalo +7.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Buffalo +7.5, “I like the Bills logo better even though they have the same colors.”

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-2.5) – Did I mention how awesome it was that Aaron Rodgers sat out last week? And how awesome it is that he is playing this week after it cost me my fantasy game last week? In this day, with fantasy football practically ruling the world, Rodgers may never shed the atrocious 2010 fantasy playoff performance. Someday I will tell my grandkids that I was alive to witness the “Aaron Rodgers Massacre of 2010″.

I still love this Packer team, despite the fact Matt Flynn is one oversized snowflake hitting Rodgers in the head away from quarterbacking this team in the biggest game of the year. The Packers are like Rob Lowe’s character in St. Elmo’s Fire, Billy, very talented, very likable, but an incredible eff-up, yet he continued to get chance after chance.

Since there wasn’t a St. Elmo’s II, where Billy become a rock star, we’re left thinking what a waste of flesh. That’s the Pack, with no losses of more than four points, a plus offense and a plus defense. It’s easy to blame injuries (losing Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant was huge), but there is something missing with this team in close games. One week it’s a special teams breakdown, the next it’s penalties, the next it’s a couple of dropped passes, etc, etc.

And yet. . . I just can’t shake my love affair with them.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the NY Giants – A team golf outing at Trump National during the weekend of January 8^th. Translation – the Giants will be home for the playoffs

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Packers – A running game. Imagine if the Packers has the ability to put a game away late by running the ball. This team might be the Super Bowl champ that I predicted before the season.

Pick: Green Bay -2.5, LHSC: Green Bay -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New York +2.5, “Even though I hate New York, they have a better record and I think that they will win this one.”

Houston (-2.5) @ Denver – I have picked the Texans nine times this season. My record in those nine games? 2-6-1, which is the worst record for any NFL team. So, you’ve been warned.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Texans – Extreme psychotherapy for the entire team. “So, Andre, when you saw that hail-mary fall into the arms of a Jaguar player, how did that make you feel?”

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Broncos – A definitive answer on Tim Tebow. The Donks need clarity at the quarterback position at the beginning of 2011.

Pick: Houston -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Houston -2.5, “My cousin lives in Houston and I’m pretty sure they will win.”

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Oakland – Would anyone be surprised if the Colts ended up winning the Super Bowl this season? Sure, most everybody’s initial reaction would be “no way, unbelievable”, but when you think about what the NFL 2010 has become, would it really surprise you?

This would be a game where picking it a day before is a real disadvantage. If the Chiefs win, the Raiders have nothing to play for (other than pleasing those freaks in the stands), but if the Chiefs lose, the Raiders remain alive.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Colts – Mr. Miyagi as the team physician. Picture this – Austin Collie’s laying motionless on the field the other “physicians” race to assist him, Miyagi, meanwhile, finishes his sake then slowly walks towards Collie. “Where does it hurt Austin-san?”, asks Miyagi. “Uh, Myohgee, he’s knocked out, he can’t speak.” Miyagi feverishly rubs his hands together then forcefully places his right hand in Collie’s head, within nanoseconds Collie jumps to his feet and heads back to the huddle. And the crowd goes nuts as we fade to black. . .

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Raiders – Four more years of Tom Cable. Look I don’t think Cable is a great coach by any measure, but he has got the Raiders playing well and somehow he is able to deal with Al Davis.

Pick: Oakland +3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Indianapolis -3, “I like Peyton Manning and I think he will make some good passes for some touchdowns.”

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-14.5) – What doesn’t NBC get any “do-overs”? I am guessing that the average NFL would rather see the Bengals/Chargers than Joe Webb, Toby Gerhart and the rest of the Minnesota Vikings. NBC wanted so badly to get one more chance with Favre, that they took a chance by flexing this game to the night game. Yuck!

You have to like the Vikings with the points here, though. Andy Reid will take it easy on his old pal, Brad Child, wait they Vikings fired Chidlress, Andy will avenge that firing if it’s the last thing he does – KILL THEM ALL!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Vikings – A new stadium
for the Vikings. The Minnesota fans have suffered enough, we don’t need the Vikings moving to Los Angeles and becoming an instant dynasty. OF course, on the bright side it would thin the population and possibly save Social Security for those hard working, family repairing Generation Xer.

As Arnold would say, “Look out, behind you” – here comes a tangent. Is there any generation more abused than Generation X? First off, Gen X were born or raised during the sexual revolution (generation baby boomers), where men and women alike decided that they could do whatever pleases them, regardless of the ramifications. The key difference between baby boomer generation and previous generation, aptly named, “the Silent”, was that women were now free to do what pleased them, as opposed to taking the bowl of crap their husbands served them, smile and politely decline a second helping. But they stayed together. Loosely translated, if the baby boomers were a sports franchise they would have been a dynasty, posting an impressive .650 divorce rate during those couple of decades. Nobody wanted to face the Baby Boomers!

So, Gen Xers, come from broken homes. But by the time the Gen Xer’s reached their formidable, adolescent years, the sexual revolution should have evolved into something Gen Xer could truly enjoy,m albeit responsibly, right? Wrong! Gen Xer had to deal with rampaging STD’s (introduced on a global level by, guess who, the Baby Boomers).

Worst yet, Gen Xer is somewhat on the technical side, but really a step behind Gen Yer’s (shouldn’t they have called Gen Xer, Gen A, or at least Gen P, I mean here we are two generations past Gen X and we are already out of generations. That’s piss poor planning that would make Norv Turner proud!). Gen Xer wants to use Facebook, Twitter and such, but doesn’t innately understand how to use them, like the Gen Y does, so they end up posting pictures of themselves with drink in hand. Which leads to condemenation from, yep you guessed it again, the Baby Boomers and ultimately dismissal from their job. Somehow it’s “cute” for Gen Yers to post pictures of themselves half-naked surrounded by a half-dozen other half-naked people while taking a hit off a bong! Meanwhile, the Baby Boomers are over-loading porn sites and praising this newfound technology called the Internets.

Yea, it sucks for the Gen Xer, but at least at the end of their career most will have their family intact (as a result of the “I won’t repeat the mistakes” logic) and retire with what Americans prior to them received, a modest but consistent check from the US Government. Wrong again! The Baby Boomers will suck Social Security dry before most Gen Xers get close to drawing a check. And the worst part of it – those Baby Boomers, despite their hard living they did, will live longer than any generation prior, thanks to the advances in medicine primarily funded by the Gen Xer.

But I’m not bitter. Really, I’m not. Ok, maybe just a tiny bit!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Eagles – A cure to Andy Reid’s Heresyphobia, which of course the fear of challenges. Technically, Heresyphobia is the fear of challenges to official doctrine or of radical deviation, but for the purposes of this column we are taking the definition out of context. Andy Reid used to challenge the spot of a ball to gain an extra half foot in the first quarter of a huge division game, now he is so shell-shocked that he cannot pull the trigger on an obvious challenge (D. Jackson’s fumble that was clearly, from every camera angle in the stadium, down by contact). Andy is going to drive Eagles fans crazy in the playoffs.

Pick: Philadelphia -14.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Minnesota +14.5, “I don’t think that Philly can win by 14 and I think they will keep the game close.”

Me – “Have you seen Joe Webb play quarterback?”

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2.5) – There is an inordinate amount of 2.5 point spreads this week. That’s nuts because more, by a wide margin, NFL games are decided by 3 points than any other point margin. So, you have to take into consideration the psychology of the odds-maker here. They want the bettor to know that they think the team favored by 2.5 isn’t quite as good as the other team. Now that’s a significant half point, because most bettors want to back the better team.

Since this game is on Monday night, my feeling is that the majority of the 2.5 point favorites cover Sunday thus setting up the ultimate “Sting” on Monday – the Saints! Just remember, you heard that logic here first when you’re thumbing your nose at Social Security because you just hit a retirement score!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Saints – A Hank “Gift” Baskett. Sure the Saints need to be better tacklers and attack down the field in their passing, but I wanted to surprise the Saints with something that never stops giving – Hank Baskett on the kickoff return team of the opposing team. That means an endless supply of, successful, surprise onside kicks.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Falcons – A book titled “The complete guide to the misery that is Cleveland sports”. You see after the Falcons get bounced in the divisional playoff round, there will be a tendency for Atlanta fan to begin feeling sorry for themselves. Woe is us, the Falcons choked, the Braves can’t deliver, the Hawks never win and the Thrashers – they still play in Atlanta, right – well, they’re the Thrashers. Before the self-pity take a week or so to read through Cleveland’s plight. Trust me it will bring back that Southern smile.

Pick: New Orleans +2.5, LHSC: New Orleans +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Atlanta -2.5, “It’s hard to lose by 3 and have you seen that Falcons logo? It looks hungry for some Saints.”

Me – “Again with the ‘it’s hard to lose by three’. Umm, actually it’s not and the Falcons are the team you picked, it doesn’t make sense. How in the world am I losing this contest? “

NFL Week 16 Picks – Part II – Christmas Edition

Merry, I can tell everyone this, right, yea, it’s Christmas day, so politically I should be able to tell everyone Merry Christmas. So, Merry Christmas to all! In honor of the day, the Caveman has graciously decided to hand out gifts to every NFL team. And with my overall season number squarely on the “Mendoza Line” (though technically I am well above the actual “Mendoza”, which is .200; I should come up a set of different comparable “lines” for each situation; so anything under a .500 handicapping record is piss poor and called the “Texans Line”), I am in dire need of some Christmas magic this weekend.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 109-109-6 (.500) (7-9 last week)

LHSC: 32-41-2 (305^th) (3-2 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	29-19
G-Dub	28-20
Caveman	21-27

 

Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona – Remember when the 2010 NFL schedule came out and we all thought this game might determine the #1 seed in the NFC? And we wondered how the NFL Network could steal such a pivotal game from Fox? Now the only way this game will outdraw the Nuggets/Thunder game on ESPN is because of the fantasy geeks tuning in to see how the Cowboys split carries between Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Of course, some viewers might tune in just for the random shot of “Arizona Santa”, the Grand Canyon’s version of Santa donning wife-beater tank top, sunglasses and shorts. You know as if “Arizona Santa” is telling the world how awesome it is to live in Arizona, regardless of how crapastic the sports scene happens to be.

The NFL at this point of the season isn’t that tough to call – figure out which teams have something to play for and ride them. Take, for example, the Steelers on Thursday – they played like crap on offense, but because they are playing for the division, their defense needed to step up big time (playing against Jimmy Clausen never hurts) and they did. The result – an easy cover. Surprisingly the Cowboys are playing as though winning seven games somehow makes their season palatable, while the Cardinals are playing as though they want to rise to the top of the NFL draft, so they can take Andrew Luck.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Cowboys – A few more “Indians”. Like in the sense that they have “too many chiefs and not enough Indians”. Or politically, “Too many cooks in the kitchen”. Translation, the Cowboys have too many stars and not enough players willing to get dirty. Those players that are willing to do the work don’t get enough playing time. Take the aforementioned Tashard Choice, who is clearly the most dynamic running back on the roster yet he has to share carries with two other players that define success as a five yard run, as opposed to the normal crashing into a pile for two yard pick-up.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Cardinals – A huge off-season filled with many gifts from the front office. The Cardinals have the third lowest payroll this season and last off-season they waved goodbye to 1. Karlos Dansby (their defensive leader); 2. Antrel Rolle; 3. Kurt Warner; and 4. Anquan Boldin. All of those moves, except for Warner, were financial moves, which, with the exception of Dansby, I agreed with, however, the Cardinals didn’t spend a fraction of the money they saved. And it’s almost like the front office thought, “Hey, lets’ pocket this cash, if things go south we’ll blame it on losing Warner”, then paid out huge bonuses to themselves. Fair enough, but here’s the deal Cardinals – you’re in Arizona where below average teams circle the drain faster than MC Hammer’s money (quick, outside of “U Can’t Touch This”, name another Hammer song, thought so). Add to that the stadium is on the opposite end of the universe from the majority of Cardinals fans and you have the most critical off-season since the Cardinals moved to Glendale in 2006 when they became what we know today as the Anti-Cardinals. And, Larry Fitzgerald is in the final year of his contract next season.

The Cardinals have sold out every home game since they moved to the new building, at first the novelty of the building itself (and the idea that you could watch NFL football in Arizona in Septemberm who kenw?), but then because the team was exciting and winning. But if the Cardinals blow it this off-season, fans will jump ship and the Cardinals will be left playing in front a half full stadium.

Pick: Dallas -7.0, LHSC – Dallas -6.5

 

CaveKid’s Pick – Dallas -7.0, “The Cardinals suck”

Me – “If I don’t make up siginificant ground on CaveKid this week, at least I know I can go with the Cardinals next week to make up a game.”

 

G-Dub – Dallas -7.0

NFL Week 16 Picks – Part I

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 109-109-6 (.500) (7-9 last week)

LHSC: 32-41-2 (305^th) (3-2 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	29-19
G-Dub	28-20
Caveman	21-27

 

Carolina @ Pittsburgh (-14.5) – What’s best reason to back the Panthers in this game? I thought and thought, and thought some more and finally came up with this – without Troy Polamulu the Steelers defense is ordinary and the secondary is atrocious (Bryan McFadden might be the worst cover corner in the history of the NFL).

And though Jimmy Clausen is essentially fighting for his NFL life (the Panthers currently hold the number one pick, which will be quarterback Andrew Luck, thus Clausen will be out of luck, ba-da-boom. Yea I know, that was cheap), at least as a starting quarterback, I find it virtually impossible to believe that Jimmy will lead the Panthers into Pittsburgh and keep the Panthers within 14 points.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Panthers – Andrew Luck. The Panthers have started the following quarterbacks – Frank Reich, Kerry Collins, Steve Beuerlein, Chris Weinke, Matt Lytle, Rodney Peete, Randy Fasani, Jake Delhomme, Vinny Testaverde, David Carr, Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen. That’s for the entire franchise. And they have some talent at WR – Gettis, Lafell and Steve Smith. Translation they need a big-time quarterback for once.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Steelers – A healthy leg for Troy Polamalu. The numbers are staggering, like A-Cup to DD-BoobJob staggering, for the Steelers when Polamalu plays. In the five games “43″ played last season the Steelers allowed an average of 13.8 points and did not allow more than 18. Without him, the Steelers allowed the opposition to score post 20 or more points in 9 of 11 games and allowed an average of 23.2 points a game. This season, in the first game Polamalu missed the Steelers allow the Jets, yes the Jets, 22 points, after the Jets scored a combined 9 points the previous two weeks.

Wait a minute, did I just leave Polamalu being out off my “reasons the Panthers can cover” list? Yes I did, never underestimate the power of poor quarterback play in the NFL.

Pick: Pittsburgh -14.5

 

CaveKid’s Pick – Carolina +14.5, “I hate the Steelers and Worthlessburger!”

Me – “So young, so angry, damn that Lindsey Lohan!”

 

G-Dub – Pittsburgh -14.5

 

 

 

NFL Week 15 Picks – Part II

The Chargers got me off to a good start on Thursday, let’s see if I can post a 14 or 15 win week that will make the past six weeks a distance memory.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 102-100-6 (.505) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 29-39-2 (316^th) (0-5 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	20-12
G-Dub	18-14
Caveman	14-18

 

Arizona @ Carolina (-2.5) – Survivor is now down to five contestants after Jane, the lovable dog trainer from North Carolina, was voted off this past week. It was a somewhat surprising vote considering that Jane was in a solid alliance prior to the tribal council. Jane was obviously disappointed, but instead of approaching the worthless Dan and Fabio duo about a new alliance, she instead decided to spend her last hours crying about Chase turning on her. Uh, Jane, its survivor where the major portion of the game is manipulation and lying!

Anyway as Jane was whining about Chase she mentioned that he better not, “show his face in Carolina”. Yikes, does that mean Jane is going to hunt Chase down with a pack of Pit Bulls specially trained to devour human flesh? So, Chase you have a couple options – win the million so you can afford to hire full-time security or enter the witness protection program. Good luck, pal, what’s the age old saying, “Hell hath no fury than that of a scorned dog trainer from North Carolina”?

There is no way that God would allow the strife in Carolina due to Survivor and in the same week have the Panthers lose to the Cardinals. So, we have that going for the Panthers, uh and, John Skelton making his first road start.

Pick: Carolina -2.5

LHSC – Carolina -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Carolina -2.5, “The Cardinals suck.”

 

New Orleans @ Baltimore (-1.5) – Flash back to Monday night when the Ravens coughed up a 21 point lead to the Texans, only to survive when the Texans pulled a Texans (I think that we can safely change the term “choking” to “pulling a Texans”, effectively they now mean the same). Now picture the same game except substitute the Texans with the Saints. Is there any chance the Saints don’t take care of business in that situation? Exactly.

Oh, and the Ravens played an incredibly physical Sunday night game two weeks ago against Pittsburgh. It catches up with them this week.

Pick: New Orleans +1.5

LHSC – New Orleans +1.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Baltimore -1.5, “It’s hard to lose by just 1 point so I think that the Ravens will win.

G-Dub’s Week 14 Picks

San Francisco +8.5

Arizona +2.5

Cincinnati -1.5

Green Bay +14.0

Houston +1.5

New Orleans +1.5

NY Jets +5.5

Detroit +5.5

Jacksonville +5

Oakland -6.5

Dallas -6

Buffalo +5

Kansas City +1

Atlanta -6

Philadelphia +2.5

Chicago -7.5

It is hard to lose by a point, but if the Ravens lose by a point or win by a point they don’t cover the spread. And I am 6 games behind this logic!

Denver @ Oakland (-6.5) – The Broncos were bloodied by 30 at the hands of the Cardinals last week. The Cardinals! Meanwhile the Raiders are showing signs of life for the first time since 2002, so why is the spread under a touchdown? Also, the Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver by 45 points earlier this season, so again why wouldn’t this game be at least 9.5? Bottom line – the odds-makers do not significantly overreact to prior outcomes, but instead rely on the bettor over-thinking as well as plain old sappy-ass luck (but if they did over-react what would this number be? 27.5, 35?). Under old management, this pick would be over thought and with the Broncos, but with WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow. . .

Pick: Oakland -6.5

LHSC – Oakland -6.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Oakland -7, “Last time Oakland and Denver played Oakland totally blew them out! I’m thinking that they will do this again.”

 

Washington @ Dallas (-7.0) – I loved the Cowboys before this line was posted based on them playing extremely hard despite their challenges in the defensive backfield, playing with a backup quarterback, losing without Dez Bryant and having virtually no running game. But then I got a little gift on Friday – Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins! That should be more than enough to neutralize Dallas defensive backfield.

Pick: Dallas -7.0

LHSC – Washington -6.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Washington +7.0, “The Redskins won by a lot last time and I think that they can either win again or keep the game close.”

 

So, I was really concerned that the logic for this pick would be something along the lines of “it’s the classic matchup of Cowboys and Indians, and we know from history how this turned out.”

 

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-1.5) – “The Battle of Ohio”! The battle of one team whose stadium is named for the legendary coach Paul Brown against the other team whose nickname is Paul Brown. That is something you would expect to see in a soap opera; Holidays around the Ohio dinner table must be a little weird, right? I mean the Bengals decided to name their stadium Paul Brown stadium, why not go further with a nickname change to the “Brownies”? Everyone loves Brownies!

 

This is such a rivalry that I am surprised they don’t play for some sort of collegiate trophy that gets passed to the winner of each contest – you know like Paul Bunyan’s Axe or the Old Oaken Bucket. Except these two could play for the urn that contains Paul Brown’s ashes. The Browns currently hold the urn, but imagine the following happening on Sunday – the Bengals are in position to win the game as Ocho-Cinco and TO get in position to make a run for the Browns sideline. The final gun sounds, Ocho-Cinco runs faster than he has run all season, snags the urn and parades it around the stadium as TO tries to pry it from his hands. That would be priceless, must watch TV. Someone needs to make this happen!

 

Pick: Cincinnati -1.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Cincinnati -1.5, “It’s hard to lose by a point so I think the Bengals will win by at least three.”    

Green Bay @ New England (NL) – Here is a letter I sent to Aaron Rodgers this week:

 

“Mr. Rodgers,

 

On behalf of Packer fans (which I am not) and fantasy players (which I am), I would like to personally thank you for being an ‘EFFING RETARD! Did you really think it was a good idea to run down the middle of the field without sliding? Did it ever occur to you that in the middle of the field, you cannot possibly see the frothing at the mouth Neanderthals coming at you in both directions, thus exposing you to just the type of hit that you took? Hence, you suffered a concussion, which is the modern day equivalent of a broken leg.

 

And in doing so, your single brain-fart moment, you destroyed the Packers playoff hopes. Nice work asswipe, you have caused a massive depression in the state of Wisconsin. That will lead to an entire state attempting to medicate themselves with cheese fondue all winter long!

 

From a fantasy perspective, your absence from this weekend’s game based on your poor decision is bad enough, but those depending on Greg Jennings (BTW, please thank him for dropping that 73 yard TD last week) are also SOL this week. And yes, I have Greg Jennings on my team so effectively you have taken my best receiver out as well. Hell, Aaron why don’t you fly to Indianapolis this week and slam MJD’s hurting knee with a lead pipe. You know just to complete the trifecta for me.

 

Best wishes in the off-season, enjoy watching the Bears in the playoffs! ”

 

Yea, I am just a little bitter about what happened last week with Rodgers. And realistically just about every quarterback in the NFL understands that running in the middle of the field is dangerous. I look at it the same way I did when John McClain was forced stand on a Harlem street corner while wearing a racist, offensive sign – it wasn’t going to end well.

 

Pick: New England -13.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New England -4.5, “The Patriots have won most of their games and when they did win it was by a lot.”

 

Houston @ Tennessee (-1.5) – The Titans have quit defensively. How do I know? The Colts ran the ball at will on them. Allowing the Colts to run the ball is as bad as that no-talent, reality show star Kate Gosselin making 3.5 million a year! I realize that has nothing to do with football, but can you freakin’ believe that she makes that much coin? Who is watching that show to support that salary? And what about the husband, John, he must feel like a real schmuck, right? Considering when the show was “John and Kate, plus Eight”, he probably made porn-type money ($500 per episode). Honestly, I am ready to throw a bunch of crap in my house, call myself a hoarder and give one of these reality shows a call – “Please, help me, CaveKids cannot have any friends because of my problem, put me on TV!”

 

And since the Titans have quit on defense, you have to like the Texans chances, with their offensive weapons. My only fear is that if any team can find a way to lose to a team that has quit it’s the Texans.

 

Pick: Houston +1.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Houston +1.5, “They blew Tennessee out last time and I think they will do it again.”

 

Uh, that was in Houston with Rusty Smith playing. Nice research Cavekid!

 

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) – I liked the Jets long before it was announced that Troy Polamalu was doubtful to play. It’s pretty simple here, the Jets are desperate, the Steelers are banged up on both sides of the ball and 5.5 points is too much for a game that will be this low scoring.

 

Pick: NY Jets +5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New York +5.5, “I think that the Jets will keep the game close and only lose by 3.”

 

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (-5.5) – I love the Bucs this week, big time, like Josh Freeman to Mike Williams for three touchdowns big time. Yep, that is my fantasy replacement for Rodgers/Jennings this week, which a little like the replacement Griswold kids in European Vacation – the douche-bag kid they had playing Rusty (Jason Lively, who?) compared with Anthony Michael Hall was a total joke. And to think any girl who isn’t blind would think that kid was cute is a stretch even for Hollywood. While the original Audrey was forgettable, she wasn’t nearly as annoying that pig that played the part in European. Even Chevy mailed in European. My guess because when he showed up on set he saw the replacement kid and was like “WTF, I need to be more involved in the decision making process.”

Yea, this guy is cute, if he was swimming is a pool of hundred dollar bills!

Maybe Freeman and Williams aren’t quite that bad, but still. BTW, have I mentioned how pissed I am at Aaron Rodgers?

 

Pick: Tampa Bay -5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Tampa Bay -5.5, “Tampa is the home team and I think that that will help Tampa win the game.”

 

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5.0) – I’ve become a believer in this Jags team (sorry jag fans, I know that is the kiss of death). And you know what I think they think they’re simply tougher than the Colts. And they will turn this game into a street fight, which completely plays into their favor.

 

“The Jags win the AFC South, the Jags win the AFC South”

 

Pick: Jacksonville +5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Jacksonville +5.0, “I think the Jags will keep it close and maybe even win again.”

 

Buffalo @ Miami (-5.0) – Is it me or is there a ton of 5-6.5 point spreads this week? Seven of the 16 games are in that range – which is tempting if you believe the favored team is significantly better, however, if the case can be made that the underdog stands a chance to win, then it is comforting to get those extra 2-3 points.

 

As we know a ton of NFL games are decided by a field goal, and while getting five extra points doesn’t seem like a bunch it really covers a lot of middle ground. For example, you get the win on – any three point win and the dreaded four point game (21-17, team driving needing a touchdown as opposed to a field goal). And at worst you get a push when down 11, score a touchdown with a missed two conversion. That’s a lot of room for error with two relatively equal teams.

 

The Dolphins are the superior team, but the Bills never quit; the Dophins won a huge game last week, woke up Monday and realized they are still not going to make the playoffs, thus reducing their incentive; and the Dolphins suck at home.

 

Pick: Buffalo +5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Miami -5.0, “I think that the Dolphins will blow out Buffalo.”

 

Kansas City @ St. Louis (-2.0) –“The Battle of Missouri”. I remember back in 2000 when these two teams played – “the greatest show on turf” (notice there is no “D”) against an up-coming Trent Green-led Chiefs team, I think the final score was something like an arena football game 58-34. I remember watching the game at a bar with handful of Chiefs fans. As the Chiefs started piling on the points, they were going crazy to which my buddy, a fellow Rams fan, screamed out, “You know what the difference between the Chiefs and the Rams is? At the end of the season the Rams will be in the Super Bowl. Enjoy this meaningless regular season game.” I thought it was hilarious, mostly because, save 1999, the Rams were the worst franchise in the NFL in the 90s that one year turned us all into brazen smack talker. Of course, with a reasonably competent head coach, the Rams would have won three straight titles!

 

Pick: St. Louis -2.0

CaveKid’s Pick – St. Louis -2.0, “I think the Rams will win by at least three.”

 

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-2.5) – So, new management no longer reads into the odds-makers line, except when there is strong precedence for a line, like this Eagles/Giants game. The Falcons/Packers game had a similar line, where essentially the bookmaker told us then that the Packers were a better team than the Falcons (Atlanta was favored by 2.5). So now we are led to believe thatthe Eagles are better than the Giants. That wittle .5 point has a major impact on the bettors, because most bettors feel more comfortable taking the superior team. I maintain the odds-makers pull out the 2.5 spread for big games and consistently rake in the cash. “Not on my watch!” – Mr. WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow

 

Pick: NY Giants -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Philadelphia +2.5, “I think that the Eagles will blow the Giants out again just like last time.”

 

Atlanta (-6.0) @ Seattle – My vote for NFL MVP is Seattle WR “Big” Mike Williams. With him the Seahawks have a semblance of an offense, without him they make the Jets look like the Patriots. He is back this week and a little know fact about this juggernaut that is the Falcons – they struggle against the pass.

 

I love the NFC West where every week’s “must win” is turned quickly into “we still have a shot, but next week is a must win”. Seattle keeps it close, plus Atlanta is due for a stink bomb!

 

Pick: Seattle +6.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Atlanta -6.0, “I think that the Falcons will win this one by a lot because every time that Seattle has lost they have lost by more than 7 points.”

 

Chicago (NL) @ Minnesota –“The Battle of two teams coming off royal beatings”. Yea, the Bears and Vikings took beatings worse than the Apostle Paul at the hands of Romans.

 

And this game is going to be played outdoors, in Minnesota, at night, without those fancy underground heating coils – hmmm, is there a prop bet on the number of concussions that result from players hitting their heads on the frozen turf?

Uh, Joe Webb is starting for the Vikings. Who’d thunk the Vikes would be pining for Brett Favre about now. How about the over/under for this game at 32.5! This will be a massive Bears blowout that goes well under – like 24-7.

“The Bears win the NFC North, the Bears win the NFC North!”

Pick: Chicago -7.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Chicago +1.5, “I think that the Bears have it in them to win again even though they are the away team.”

NFL Week 15 Picks – Part I

“Step into my pain cave and I will bludgeon thee!”

Quiz time, the above is:

1. Lyrics to a song written (and performed) by Wayne’s World reclusive character Garth Algar
   
2. A skit, that seemingly repeats weekly, where the pain cave is the sports book, the bludgeoner is the odds-maker and the bludgeoned is this guy (two thumbs pointing at Caveman)
   
3. Both a and b
   

Funny thing is I was on my way to the Penthouse Cave, where I planned to enjoy all the things that most Cavemen can only dream about. Instead, I forgot to print out directions, made a wrong turn and ended up in the aforementioned pain cave. For the past six weeks, I’ve been trapped in the pain cave and treated worse than an Iraqi POW by the US troops. My captor – mostly the odds-makers, but there are small portions attributable to my over-thinking and consistent bad luck.

The bad luck will eventually turn, right? Right? I thought it had with the Titans improbable cover last Thursday, but my week ended with a unbelievable, crushing spread defeat in the Texans/Ravens game. In the middle I suffered four humiliating losses (two in the Super Contest), two backdoor cover losses and loss where the team I backed lost their starting quarterback (the added bonus that it happened to also be my fantasy quarterback).

For the second time this season I lost a game where I laid two points but picked the winner correctly (ironically, both games were the Bucs and both games finished 17-16, yea it’s a crazy year!). It’s gotten to the point where if the team I picked can get beat with a last second score, they will. And I expect it. Hello, degenerate, expecting to lose, gambling Caveman, goodbye college fund!

I’ve lost my mojo, big time, which is the equivalent to an NFL head coach losing his team. How bad has it gotten? I got two comments last week on my picks – “I had already turned in my picks prior yours getting posted. I was disappointed because I was hoping to reverse your picks.” And “I thought this would be a little like a slump in baseball, you’d hit your way out of it. But I think you might need a trip to the minors.”

Ouch! And that doesn’t include the constant berating I receive at home at the hands of CaveKid. After two weeks of our competition, CaveKid holds a commanding six game lead! I felt so confident I would turn it around that I offered a sweetheart, “double or nothing”-type of bet last week – four months of chores, $100 cash and let her pick out the Family Christmas gift (you know the “Family” Christmas gift, wink, wink, the one that is usually something for the family, like the Madden video game or a PSP that we share, so getting to pick it is a big deal). Her stake in the deal – two dinners, one she pays for, the other she has to cook. So, basically I punished myself by adding in a dinner she has to cook. Whoop-dee-do!

Here is an alarming trend that I would title “The train-wreck that has been my season”:

As you can easily identify, Caveman, is just barely above the Mendoza line, while SuperContest Caveman is well below the Mendoza line. Remember back in week 2, when I seemingly could not lose? Yea, that was fun.

In my last gasp effort to salvage a peaceful off-season, I am pulling a move that has worked for a couple NFL teams – I am firing myself as head of the handicapping division of Caveman Inc. That’s right, gone is the over-thinking, partial statistical analyzing, “sharp” pretender.

I am happy to introduce my new head of handicapping – Mr. WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow. Mr. WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow comes with a wealth of experience, but he will keep things as simple as – “he believes what he sees” and “if a team is better, they are the better play”.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 102-100-6 (.505) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 29-39-2 (316^th) (0-5 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	20-12
G-Dub	18-14
Caveman	14-18

 

San Francisco @ San Diego (-8.5) – Die, dammit, die, you rat bastard 49ers. I’m not sure whether the 49ers are more like a horror film’s villain or a personal nightmare where you’re repeatedly hitting an intruder but fail to do major damage. In either case they aren’t going away. I wish I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard, “If the 49ers lose this game, they’re done!” The reality? This game against the Chargers isn’t a must win for them. Yes, that’s correct they can lose this game. Their season will come down to the road game in the “Lou” next week. So, this game is dispensable. And with injuries to Patirck Willis and Takeo Spikes, look for the 49ers to “rest” up for their big divisional game next week.

That’s the support for the Chargers, but under the new management – it’s simple the Chargers are in a must “win out” situation (like last year, the year before last, the year before that and so on) and they’re clearly a better team, playing at home. Not close!

Pick: San Diego -8.5

LHSC – San Diego -8.5

CaveKid’s Pick – San Francisco +8.5, “No way San Diego can win by 9 or more”

G-Dub – San Francisco +8.5