NFL Week 17 Picks – Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!

I love the all-division games for week 17. In honor of that I am doing a quick pick, with a 2010 lasting impression for each team and a recap of my pre-season prediction.

Also, I have some good news the SuperCave contest has been extended through the playoffs (when I create the contest, I can change the rules to fit my needs, which loosely translated means I am getting drilled by CaveKid).

Season Totals: 115-119-6 (.500) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 35-43-2 (294^th) (3-2 last week)

SuperCave Contest Standings

G-Dub	38-26
CaveKid	36-28
Caveman	27-37

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

And this week the SuperContest lines are crazy due to the late information, so here are my week 17 picks: Green Bay -6.5, Dallas +12.0, Houston +2.5, New England -3.0 and St. Louis -3.0

NFC SOUTH

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Carolina: 10-6 (Second NFC South, loss in wildcard game) – Whoops! Somehow I thought this team had some talent and losing Jake Delhomme would be such a huge upgrade that could grab at least two more wins.

Atlanta: 9-7 (Third in NFC South) – I thought before the season they were a solid, but forgettable team.

2010 Lasting impression:

Carolina: The turd Matt Moore laid in game one against the Giants. Moore threw two terrible interceptions in the red zone against the Giants in a game that was very winnable. The Panthers never recovered.

Atlanta: The Roddy White stiff-arm, “uncalled”, pass interference against the Ravens. That play exemplified the Falcons good fortune this season. Will that continue in the playoffs? We shall see.

Picks:

Caveman, Atlanta -14.0, The Falcons need this game or they face the possibility of having to go on the road in the playoffs.

Cavekid’s Pick, Atlanta -14 -”the Falcons beat the Panthers by 21 points last time and being at home will help them win again.”

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-7.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Tampa Bay: 5-11 (Fourth in NFC South) – Who knew that Josh Freeman when combined with young hungry defenders and young skilled players on offense would be enough to compensate for a terrible head coach? Not me.

New Orleans: 11-5 (First NFC South, loss in NFC Championship) – The schedule didn’t seem too terribly tough and generally the Super Champ makes back to the playoffs.

2010 Lasting impression:

Tampa Bay: The two heart-breaking losses to Atlanta, where both games were incredibly winnable.

New Orleans: The fumble by Heath Miller in the week 8 game against the Steelers. The Steelers were driving for at least a field goal to tie and possibly the winning touchdown which would have left the Saints at 4-4. After the game the schedule got easier and you could almost hear the Saints tell the world, “Well, if you’re not going to knock us out after these eight games, then we might as well win it again!”

Picks:

Caveman, Tampa Bay +7.0 – Once the Saints look at the scoreboard and see the Falcons up 21 points, Payton will call off the dogs.

Cavekid’s Pick, New Orleans -7.0 – “I mean the Saints haven’t done anything wrong that would keep them from winning.”

NFC NORTH

Chicago @ Green Bay (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Chicago: 5-11 (Fourth NFC North) – I still think this team is no better than an eight win team. I am very much looking forward to the divisional playoff round where the Bears will be favored over either the Eagles or Saints. Cha-Ching!

Green Bay: 12-4(First NFC North, Super Bowl XLV champions) – So, you’re saying there is still a chance.

2010 Lasting impression:

Chicago: The 36-3 ass-whooping the Patriots gave them, which I think is more representative of them as a team than any other game on the schedule.

Green Bay: The Desean Jackson punt return against the Giants, which put the Packers in position to control their own destiny. Without that the lasting memory for the Packers would be the moronic Aaron Rodgers jaunt through the middle of Ford Field, like he was chasing an overthrown frisbee in Central Park.

Picks:

Caveman, Green Bay -9.5 – I have to admit it would be so Mike McCarthy-like for the Packers to lose this game.

Cavekid’s Pick, Chicago +9.5 -”I think that the Bears will win again, even if they don’t the game will be close.”

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Minnesota: 8-8 (Second in NFC North) – Nailed it! I missed by a couple of games, but my general feeling was Favre would destroy this team.

Detroit: 6-10 (Third in NFC North) – All that stands between 6-10 and third place is the Vikings. Consider it done.

2010 Lasting impression:

Minnesota: Brett Favre laying motionless on the frozen Minnesota turf in week 15 against the Bears. I can’t say I wasn’t cheering!

Detroit: The Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in week one against the Bears. That single play may have flipped this division in the Bears favor and at the same time cost the Lions an early season surge of momentum. Is the football world ready for the Lions and Rams playing for the 2011 NFC Championship? Just remember, you heard it here first!

Picks:

Caveman, Detroit -3.5 – I am not buying into Joe Webb quite yet, but by all means fantasy freaks put himn in your top 10 amongst quarterbacks for next year.

Cavekid’s Pick, Minnesota+3.5 – “The Vikings logo is much cooler than the Lion which is plain and blue.”

NFC WEST

St. Louis (-3.0) @ Seattle

Pre-season predictions:

St. Louis: 3-13 (Fourth in NFC West) – I didn’t count on – 1. Bradford staying healthy; 2. Bradford being this good; 3. The NFC West being this ridiculously bad; and 4.the Rams defense stepping up just enough.

Seattle: 7-9 (Second in NFC West) – Pretty much what I expected – mediocrity.

2010 Lasting impression:

St. Louis: The stand at the end of the Broncos game. The Rams did everything they could to lose that game – go conservative on offense; they gave up huge chunks of yardage in the middle of the field when burning time was in their favor; and they had a special teams breakdown at a critical time. But the defense rose up, stopped the Broncos which allowed the Rams to escape with a win.

Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck pulling up lame after scoring a touchdown against the Bucs in week 16. Now the Seahawks are most likely left starting Johnny Depp at quarterback for the biggest game of the season. Oh yeah, they and the 12^th man are 3 point underdogs because of this.

Picks:

Caveman, St. Louis -3.0 – Yep, I am taking a rookie quarterback on the road in a winner-take-all matchup. A lot of that is the Charlie Whitehurst factor, but some of it is the fact that the Seahawks are treating this like a bowl game – yesterday they toured the Space Needle.

Cavekid’s Pick, St. Louis -3 – “You have to support one of your favorite teams.”

Arizona @ San Francisco (-6.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Arizona: 6-10 (3^rd place in NFC West) – Exactly what I thought – though I didn’t count on them getting wins against the Saints or Cowboys.

San Francisco: 9-7 (NFC West Champ, loss in Wildcard round) – So, I wasn’t all-in on the 49ers like most of the “experts” (one moron had the 49ers at 12-4), but in my wildest dreams I couldn’t imagine that they wouldn’t at least win 6 games (division games).

2010 Lasting impression:

Arizona: All the way back in the pre-season, the very first pass to Larry Fitzgerald was high, forcing Fitz to leap and take a hit that cost the rest of the pre-season. The result the offense was never in-sync causing Whisenhunt into the “Max Hall” (who is a dead ringer for Matt Saracen) experiment. The rest is history. Either that or Derek Anderson just sucks!

San Francisco: Mike Singletary holding up his index finger asking the referees for one more second in the week 16 game against the Rams. The irony was thick as the 49ers seemingly had “one more” opportunity every week and just wouldn’t die.

Picks:

Caveman, Arizona +6.0, Whisenhunt has the Cardinals playing hard to the end. The 49ers cannot wait to get out of the locker room to start their off-season.

Cavekid’s Pick, San Francisco -6 -”The Cardinals suck.”

NFC EAST

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Dallas: 11-5 (Second NFC East, loss in divisional round) – This team was doomed from the start. I should’ve known, but I am a sucker for overly talented teams coached by the Pillsbury dough boy.

Philadelphia: 11-5 (First NFC East, loss in divisional round) – 11-5 was based on Kevin Kolb, had I known Vick was going to be the Brady with legs-clone, I might have had them at 13-3.

2010 Lasting impression:

Dallas: Game one against the Redskins. The Tashard Choice senseless fumble before half and the holding call on the game winning touchdown optimized the Boys 2010 campaign.

Philadelphia: The Minnesota game in week 16. Not only did it cost the Eagles a bye, but The Vikings gave the league the blueprint on how to contain Vick. Plus, they beat on Vick repeatedly and lower body injuries do not heal at this time of year.

Picks:

Caveman, Dallas +3.0 – The Vikings also gifted gamblers the Cowboys in week 17.

Cavekid’s Pick, Dallas +3 – “having home field advantage will help the Cowboys to keep the game close.”

Me – And I am nine games behind someone who lucks into picks because they cannot figure out the correct home team.

NY Giants (-3.5) @ Washington

Pre-season predictions:

NY Giants: 9-7 (Third in NFC East) – Another impressive call by Caveman! Though without the D-Jax punt return the Giants are most likely the #2 seed.

Washington: 7-9 (Fourth in NFC East) – I debated between 6 and 7 wins for the Skins, but ultimately I decided to go with 7 because a buddy of mine was adamant that the addition of McNabb and Shanahan was enough for at least three wins. That’s what I get for listening to my buddies. And, my buddy Paul, is begging for Giants to mail this game in, so he can cover his over 6.5 win total on the Skins.
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2010 Lasting impression:

NY Giants: Tom Coughlin dressing down his punter after failing to kick the ball out of bounds. Yea, Tom it’s all Dodge’s fault.
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Washington: The pulling of McNabb for the two minute drill against the Detroit because of his conditioning. Little do we know that Shanahan fell out of love with McNabb in week two.

Picks:

Caveman, NY Giants -3.5 – So, the Giants will pummel the Redskins on the faint hope that the Bears show up against the Packers. By the time the Giants get the news the Packers are winning handedly, they should be up by 21.

Cavekid’s Pick, New York Giants -3.5 -”Even though Washington has home field advantage I still think they will get crushed by the mighty Giants.”

AFC EAST

Miami @ New England (-5.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Miami: 9-7 (Second AFC East) – After a 2-0 road start the feeling was this might be the best team in the AFC. They soon leveled out their productive road efforts with atrocious home play.

New England: 12-4 (First AFC East, loss in Super Bowl) – In hindsight, I’m not sure why I thought this team would win 12 games, except for the fact that Belichick makes other coaches wet their pants.

2010 Lasting impression:

Miami: The Roethlisberger fumble game, the Dolphins played tough that game but as was the case more often than not, came away empty.

New England: The Browns game. Somehow this team got whipped in Cleveland, which I think is a pre-cursor to the playoffs.

Picks:

Caveman, New England -5.0 To their credit they play week 17 like any other week regardless of the situation, damn be the Welker injury.

CaveKid’s Pick, New England -5 – “The Patriots killed (literally) the Dolphins last game. I think it’s a safe bet on the Patriots.”

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-10)

Pre-season predictions:

Buffalo: 4-12 (Fourth AFC East) – They play hard but they’re the Northwestern of the AFC East.

NY Jets: 8-8 (Third AFC East) – I would be smiling from ear to ear if the Jets didn’t pull out the Browns, Lions and Texans games.

2010 Lasting impression:

Buffalo: The Steve Johnson dropped pass of a game winning touchdown against the Steelers. Yea, it’s only one game but bad teams find ways to lose. This is an example of how close, yet how far away, this Bills is to being a factor in December.

NY Jets: The gang rape in Foxboro. You cannot get whupped 45-3 after all the smack talk by Rexy.

Picks:

Caveman, Buffalo +1.0 – The Jets are going to mail in this game.

CaveKid’s Pick, New York Jets -1 – “Even though I think the jets suck reeaallllyyy bad!, I think they can win this one.”

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Cleveland

Pre-season predictions:

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (Second AFC North, loss in wildcard round) – I put too much into the Roethlisberger suspension. I figured they would be lucky to be 2-2 without Roethlisberger and then struggles for a couple games with him.

Cleveland: 4-12 (Fourth in AFC North) – I downgraded them because of the quarterback; I mean what team in their right mind signs Jake Delhomme after what they witnessed him in Carolina?

2010 Lasting impression:

Pittsburgh: The beating at the hands of the Patriots. They won’t say it out loud, but every Steelers fan knows they cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. So, they’re left to root for either the Ravens, Colts, or, gulp, Jets to knock New England out of the playoffs prior to the AFC championship.

Cleveland: The Jets game, where the Browns went from a likely win to virtually guaranteed to tie to a mind-blowing loss (think about the investors who bought into Browns stock that week).

Picks:

Caveman, Pittsburgh -5.5 – Tough one here, but the Steelers need this game and you have to think they break out the whooping stick.

CaveKid’s Pick, Pittsburgh -5.5 – “Being away won’t stop Worthlessberger from playing a good game and leading his team to a victory.”

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Cincinnati: 6-10 (Third AFC North) – I figured 2009 was an aberration for the Bengals, but I had no idea they would be this bad.

Baltimore: 12-4 (First AFC North, loss in AFC Championship) – In my book they underachieved this season, their losses were all close, winnable games (Bengals by 5, Steelers by 3, Falcons by 5 and Patriots by 3 in OT). Of course, a lot of their wins were close, losable games.

2010 Lasting impression:

Cincinnati: Blowing a 28-7 lead to the Bills, at home no less. And they didn’t just lose they got blown out!

Baltimore: The home loss to the Steelers. The only way they lose that game it to let the Steelers defense make a huge play and that’s exactly what they did.

Picks:

Caveman, Cincinnati +9.5 – The Bengals always play the Ravens tough, plus there is something to the theory that Cincy is a better team without the theatrics Ocho and TO create.

CaveKid’s Pick, Cincinnati +9.5 – “I’m pretty sure a Bengal can take down a raven like that. I’ve seen it done before.”

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Tennessee: 9-7 (Third AFC South) – The Titans, early in the season, looked poised to post a 9 or 10 win season, but then the Jeff Fisher/Vince Young thing happened.

Indianapolis: 11-5 (1^st place AFC South, loss in Divisional round) – By default, but they’re going to be hard pressed to get past Baltimore in the wildcard round.

2010 Lasting impression:

Tennessee: Vince Young throwing his gear into the stands. That is so classic that I started thinking about “what if” other professionals did the same thing. Imagine a judge whipping his grim reaper gown and gavel into the audience of a court; or a plumber launching a well used plunger into the middle of a customer’s living room. The possibilities are endless!

Indianapolis: The Patriots game where Manning threw the back-breaking (Ya think so, doctor!) interception when the Colts were in comfortable field goal range. That play foreshadowed the next two games for the Colts where seemingly every other Manning pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Picks:

Caveman, Indianapolis -9.5 – Come on, no way Manning allows this game to be close.

CaveKid’s pick, Tennessee +9.5, “I think that the Titans will keep it close like last game.”

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Jacksonville: 7-9 (Fourth AFC South) – I knew they would end up with either 7, 8 or 9 wins, but I figured with the Texans making the leap, that would be enough to keep the Jags below .500.

Houston: 10-6 (Second place AFC South, loss wildcard round) – By far my worst call in the AFC, and yet, if Andre Johnson doesn’t fumble against the Chargers, Joel Dreessen (who?) doesn’t fumble against the Jags, if the Texans secondary decides to cover Braylon Edwards and Schuab doesn’t throw that back-breaking pick-6 against the Ravens, the Texans would be 10-6.

2010 Lasting impression:

Jacksonville: It would be easy to go with the hail-mary against the Texans, but for me it was the Garrard interception that led to the Redskins game winning field goal in week 16. Most Jaguar fans have never completely trusted Garrard, but they had started to buy into him this season and then BAM, a weak, falling backwards, pass to the outside that ends the Jaguar season, just like that.

Houston: There are so many to choose from. But I think I will take the current headline – “Kubiak to return as Texans coach”. Really? Wow, just wow, that’s unreal, what does this guy have to do to get fired? It’s as if the Texans owner is buying to the just plain ‘ol “bad luck” theory.

Picks:

Caveman, Houston -3.0 – The Texans failed in their attempts to Kubiak fired so they might as well win this game.

CaveKid’s Pick, Jacksonville +3, “I’m sure Houston will crap their pants again just like they did last week when I picked them to win.”

Me – Even CaveKid thinks Kubiak should be fired!

AFC WEST

San Diego (-3.5) @ Denver

Pre-season predictions:

San Diego: 10-6 (First AFC West, loss in divisional round) – Only Norv Turner can take a 14 win team loaded with young talent and turn them into a playoff spectator.

Denver: 5-11 (Third place AFC West) – I thought this team would be a mess with an average defense and no identity on offense.

2010 Lasting impression:

San Diego: The first loss to Oakland. That was a microcosm of the Chargers season, horrible start (two blocked punts), rally to take the lead, yet ultimately find a way to blow the game (Raiders second game and Bengals last week).

Denver: The Tim Tebow era. Say what you want about Tebow but the guy battles and battles and battles! He’s that kid who kept coming back until he finally won the fight.

Picks:

Caveman, Denver +3.5 – Tebow is a gift to sports investors.

CaveKid’s Pick , San Diego -3.5, “The Chargers simply have a much better record and are a better team than the Broncos.”

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Oakland: 4-12 (Fourth AFC West) – Originally I had the Raiders pegged as my surprise team, but when I told a buddy of mine, he informed me that the Raiders “were everyone’s surprise team”! That was enough to get me off their scent and onto the Panthers. Ugh!

Kansas City: 6-10 (Second place AFC West) – Wow, I really butchered this division. I definitely thought the Chiefs would be better, but not playoff material nor a team that could weather the storm when things got crazy. But the Chiefs did both.

2010 lasting impression:

Oakland: The 35-yard missed field goal by Sebastian Janikowski against the Cardinals in week 3. That loss haunted them the entire year. A win there turns the week 16 game against the Colts from meaningless to meaningful and this game against the Chiefs into a matchup for the division. But it’s not like the Raiders burned a high draft pick on Janikowski, right?

Kansas City: The St. Louis game. The Chiefs, coming off a drubbing by the Chargers the prior week, fell behind the Rams 6-0. With the division slipping away, the Chiefs pulled it together, beat the Rams and then got an early Christmas present as the Raiders beat the Chargers – division over!

Picks:

Caveman, Kansas City -3.0 - Charlie Weis is leaving the Chiefs to take the OC job at Florida? Of course he is, I mean he was such a great head coach in college, why not continue to pursue that path.

CaveKid’s Pick , Oakland +3.0 – “My dad always says “hey Chief” and he sometimes adds “you suck!” so I’m going to have to favor the Raiders.”

Me – And you thought J.D. McCoy had it rough with his pops!

NFL Week 16 Picks – Part III, the Final Chapter!

The remaining week 16 picks.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 109-109-6 (.500) (7-9 last week)

LHSC: 32-41-2 (305^th) (3-2 last week)

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	29-19
G-Dub	28-20
Caveman	21-27

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-6.5) – The Bucs are done, in fact when they blew that game to the Falcons a couple weeks ago, I think they packed it in for the season. They had a nice season, but they were in the wrong division and ran out of gas at the wrong time. No shame in that. Seattle meanwhile is playing for their playoff lives. A loss means they need help, win and they merely have to beat the Rams at home to win the worst division in the history of divisions. At this time of year you have to be very leery of backing teams with nothing to play for playing against teams still alive.

And, yes, I know the Seahawks haven’t lost a game this season by less than 15 points, so I am playing the Hawks to win. Because of this. . .
Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Seahawks – A gift card worth enough points to keep a road blowout close. How in the world did this team win in Chicago?

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Buccaneers – This might come as a surprise but my gift the Bucs is that Dallas comes a calling on head coach Raheem Morris. The Cowboys offer him a boatload of money that he cannot refuse. I guess you can count me in the unimpressed corner of the job Raheem has done. The Bucs also have a ton of young talent that is poised to take the next step next year, but not with Raheem at the helm.
Pick: Seattle +6.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Tampa Bay -6.5, “I think that being the home team will help them win.”

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-5.0) – The Chiefs are playing for a division title which should bring a great effort. The Titans won their Super Bowl last week against the Texans. Yea, I realize that is surprising considering the Texans are very forgettable, but I believe the Titans took that 21-0 thumping at the hands of the Texans personal and they vowed to play one more game to avenge it. With that out of the way, look for the Chiefs to run wild.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Titans – One yard. Eleven years ago the Titans fell a single yard short of perhaps winning the Super Bowl in overtime. Since then, the Titans have twice lost as the conference top seed, both times to the Ravens, despite out-gaining and out-playing them. That is a little bit like losing a fantasy football semi-final game to a guy who starts Nate Burleson, Brent Celek and Cedric Benson, but I digress. The Titans seem to be in disarray, so much so that the only potential answer for them is to fire a very serviceable head coach in Jeff Fisher. Of course this all works into the diabolical scheme of the NFL, to get Fisher as the head coach of the Los Angeles (where is he beloved) Vikings (or Jaguars or Bills or Cardinals).

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Chiefs – “The Playoffs”. For the Chiefs they have control of their destiny with two very winnable home games.

Pick: Kansas City -5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Tennessee +5, “I don’t really like the Chiefs and since the Titans are coming off a win I think they can win again. “

NY Jets @ Chicago (-1.0) – The Bears won the division last week, they are pretty much guaranteed a three seed, since I don’t see them going to Lambeau and winning in week 17, therefore they don’t have much to play for. Plus, they’re on a short week and hung over from the celebration. The Jets on the other hand need this game badly. They cannot afford to go into next week needing to win to get in. And even though the game is against the Bills, can you imagine the eerie feeling in the “New Meadowlands”. We’re talking about 42 years of failing here. If anything goes against the Jets, the entire crowd will have the “Lovie Smith” look, you know “is he alive” look.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Jets – A time machine. Not so they can a show up for the Pats game, but so Rex Ryan can go back in time and decide against filming those feet videos. Wow, man! To refer to those videos as creepy and uncomfortable is the understatement of the year. I will tell you this, publically the Jets players are supportive, but behind closed doors, Rex is getting clowned worse than Chris Moltisanti after Tony Soprano and Chris’ fiancée Adriana had the car accident (it’s a good thing Adriana didn’t bite down, ba-da-boom).

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Bears – 2010 NFC North Division Championship rings. It’s a little like how the Phoenix Suns have celebrated their few division titles, with a gigantic banner and a parade. They celebrate that way because they aren’t going any further. I honestly cannot wait to bet against the Bears in the playoffs.

G-Dub’s Week 16 Picks

Carolina +14.5

Dallas -7.0

Tampa Bay -6.5

Tennessee +5

Chicago -1

St. Louis -2.5

Cleveland +3.5

Cincinnati +7.5

Jacksonville -7

Detroit +3.5

New England -7.5

Green Bay -3

Houston -2.5

Oakland +3

Minnesota +14.5

New Orleans +2.5

Pick: NY Jets +1.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Chicago -1, “I like the Bears much more than I do the Jets. Mike Ditka coached them well.”

San Francisco @ St. Louis (-2.5) – Sam Bradford hasn’t been the same since he threw that devastating pick -6 against the Saints. That type of mistake is common place for rookies, but Bradford seemed to be immune. He appeared to be top of every decision, almost as if he was invincible to that type of devastation. Now he’s a little more like Ganz after Nolte shot him – “What I can’t believe it, I threw a 96 yard pick six, arrrrrrhhhhh!” It doesn’t end well for Ganz and my guess is it won’t for Sammy either, at least this year.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the 49ers – Making the playoffs and winning a home playoff game. That way 49er management will not only keep Mike Singletary but also choose to extend his contract. Oh wait, that’s the 49er anti-Christmas gift.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Rams – Eleven points. The Rams could take those 11 points to turn three losses into three wins, which would mean they are winners of the NFC West.

Pick: San Francisco +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – St Louis -2.5, “They lost last time but I believe in the Rams.”

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Cleveland – I am going against the “something to play for” versus “nothing to play for” play here, simply because the Browns haven’t forgotten that the Ravens were the Browns before Art Modell moved them to B-More.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Ravens – A killer instinct. The Ravens have allowed way too many back door covers this season and that is a result of two things – 1. A soft head coach who pulls on the reins way too early; and 2. A team that doesn’t trust their running game in a key spots. They need to get that sorted out before the post-season or it’s going to be a quick trip.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Browns – Something, anything good on the sports scene in Cleveland. A Browns win on Sunday would be a great start.

Pick: Cleveland +3.5, LHSC – Cleveland +3.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Baltimore -3.5, “The Ravens won by 7 last time, so I think that they can win by 4 easily.”

San Diego (-7.5) @ Cincinnati – No TO, no chance for the Bengals, unless somehow Cedric Benson can duplicate his miraculous effort from last week. It was nice to see Ced for, what, the second time this season. You have to love fantasy football, right, where anyone who benefitted from Ced last week either doesn’t pay much attention or has a roster so thin that Ced was actually a play. However, kudos to Cedric and those fantasy owners who stuck with him, don’t look for it to happen again.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Chargers – Two Kansas City wins. With two KC wins, the Chargers miss the playoffs which will lead to Norv Turner being fired! Honestly, Norv took over a 14-2 team loaded with young talent and the Chargers have two playoff wins to show for it.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Bengals – For a limited time only, Caveman is offering the following special – Hire a new head coach and get a new quarterback for free! The Bengals cannot enter the 2011 season with Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer can they? Can they?

Pick: San Diego -7.5

CaveKid’s Pick – San Diego -7.5, “The Broncos are having a bad season and I like the Chargers chances in this game.”

Me – “I assume that CaveKid meant the Bengals; But it’s possible with the lead she has that she is already looking ahead to week 17!”

Washington @ Jacksonville (-7.0) – So Donovan McNabb strongly disagrees with the decision to start Rex Grossman? Hmmm, looks to me like Shanahan is on to something with Rex, who gives the Redskins a chance to lose with dignity.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Redskins – That Daniel Synder decides to sell the Redskins to pursue philanthropic opportunities.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Jaguars – This is like the family Christmas gift that dad gets to buy, where it’s like Madden or some rated “M” shooting game like “Call of Duty”, purely selfish – the Colts to lose a game, while the Jaguars win both their remaining games. The selfish part, I want to be able to bet against the Jags in the Wildcard playoff round.

Pick: Washington +7.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Washington +7, “Their colors remind me of Christmas and I think that they will keep the game close.”

Me – “What family doesn’t pose for their Christmas wearing burgundy and yellow?”

Detroit @ Miami (-3.5) – One of the things that “square” bettors (I know I am a square bettor, but I’m trying, Ringo, I’m trying real hard to be a sharp’erd) do is overreact to the previous weeks results. Right now everything is overvaluing the Lions and under-valuing the Dolphins. First off, the Lions beat a team that is begging for golfing season to start. Secondly, the Bills are a scrappy team. And lastly, the Lions are still the Lions!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Lions – Socks. Everybody needs socks, right? Think of me as the Lions kid, who has to get them something, so I get them socks! Worst. Gift. Ever. Now think of me as the Lions opening the gift – I give them a sarcastic “Thanks” as I think to myself, “Are you effing kidding me? I need health for Matthew Stafford or cajones in close games and they get me socks? Socks! ”

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Dolphins – A cure for Ecophobia, which of course is a fear of being at home.

Pick: Miami -3.5, LHSC: Miami-3.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Miami -3.5, “I think that the Dolphins will be able to handle the cold better than the lions.”

Me – “Have you heard about the blizzard heading to South Florida? Me neither! And I am eight games behind CaveKid!”

New England (-7.5) @ Buffalo – Surprisingly the weather in Buffalo is going to be decent for this game. I think that favors the Bills, since the Pats are a much better running team, both offensively and defensively. Plus, the Bills always play the Pats tough in Buffalo.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Patriots – A shot of humility. The entire Boston sports scene is crazy good right now, and has been for the past decade. So much so that I think Pats fans, especially need to step back a bit and remember that in the past five years the Pats have lost playoff games to Denver, where the great Tom Brady threw a devastating pick-6; Indianapolis, where they held a 21-3 lead; NY Giants, where they were 18-0 and held the lead with less than two minutes to play; and to Baltimore where they were blown away at home. It might be a little early to start, what was that classic Winston Wolf saying, uh, celebrating.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Bills – A bucket of stick’em. The Bills lost three games this season because they either couldn’t catch an easy pass or fumbled the football away.

Pick: Buffalo +7.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Buffalo +7.5, “I like the Bills logo better even though they have the same colors.”

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-2.5) – Did I mention how awesome it was that Aaron Rodgers sat out last week? And how awesome it is that he is playing this week after it cost me my fantasy game last week? In this day, with fantasy football practically ruling the world, Rodgers may never shed the atrocious 2010 fantasy playoff performance. Someday I will tell my grandkids that I was alive to witness the “Aaron Rodgers Massacre of 2010″.

I still love this Packer team, despite the fact Matt Flynn is one oversized snowflake hitting Rodgers in the head away from quarterbacking this team in the biggest game of the year. The Packers are like Rob Lowe’s character in St. Elmo’s Fire, Billy, very talented, very likable, but an incredible eff-up, yet he continued to get chance after chance.

Since there wasn’t a St. Elmo’s II, where Billy become a rock star, we’re left thinking what a waste of flesh. That’s the Pack, with no losses of more than four points, a plus offense and a plus defense. It’s easy to blame injuries (losing Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant was huge), but there is something missing with this team in close games. One week it’s a special teams breakdown, the next it’s penalties, the next it’s a couple of dropped passes, etc, etc.

And yet. . . I just can’t shake my love affair with them.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the NY Giants – A team golf outing at Trump National during the weekend of January 8^th. Translation – the Giants will be home for the playoffs

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Packers – A running game. Imagine if the Packers has the ability to put a game away late by running the ball. This team might be the Super Bowl champ that I predicted before the season.

Pick: Green Bay -2.5, LHSC: Green Bay -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New York +2.5, “Even though I hate New York, they have a better record and I think that they will win this one.”

Houston (-2.5) @ Denver – I have picked the Texans nine times this season. My record in those nine games? 2-6-1, which is the worst record for any NFL team. So, you’ve been warned.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Texans – Extreme psychotherapy for the entire team. “So, Andre, when you saw that hail-mary fall into the arms of a Jaguar player, how did that make you feel?”

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Broncos – A definitive answer on Tim Tebow. The Donks need clarity at the quarterback position at the beginning of 2011.

Pick: Houston -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Houston -2.5, “My cousin lives in Houston and I’m pretty sure they will win.”

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Oakland – Would anyone be surprised if the Colts ended up winning the Super Bowl this season? Sure, most everybody’s initial reaction would be “no way, unbelievable”, but when you think about what the NFL 2010 has become, would it really surprise you?

This would be a game where picking it a day before is a real disadvantage. If the Chiefs win, the Raiders have nothing to play for (other than pleasing those freaks in the stands), but if the Chiefs lose, the Raiders remain alive.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Colts – Mr. Miyagi as the team physician. Picture this – Austin Collie’s laying motionless on the field the other “physicians” race to assist him, Miyagi, meanwhile, finishes his sake then slowly walks towards Collie. “Where does it hurt Austin-san?”, asks Miyagi. “Uh, Myohgee, he’s knocked out, he can’t speak.” Miyagi feverishly rubs his hands together then forcefully places his right hand in Collie’s head, within nanoseconds Collie jumps to his feet and heads back to the huddle. And the crowd goes nuts as we fade to black. . .

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Raiders – Four more years of Tom Cable. Look I don’t think Cable is a great coach by any measure, but he has got the Raiders playing well and somehow he is able to deal with Al Davis.

Pick: Oakland +3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Indianapolis -3, “I like Peyton Manning and I think he will make some good passes for some touchdowns.”

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-14.5) – What doesn’t NBC get any “do-overs”? I am guessing that the average NFL would rather see the Bengals/Chargers than Joe Webb, Toby Gerhart and the rest of the Minnesota Vikings. NBC wanted so badly to get one more chance with Favre, that they took a chance by flexing this game to the night game. Yuck!

You have to like the Vikings with the points here, though. Andy Reid will take it easy on his old pal, Brad Child, wait they Vikings fired Chidlress, Andy will avenge that firing if it’s the last thing he does – KILL THEM ALL!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Vikings – A new stadium
for the Vikings. The Minnesota fans have suffered enough, we don’t need the Vikings moving to Los Angeles and becoming an instant dynasty. OF course, on the bright side it would thin the population and possibly save Social Security for those hard working, family repairing Generation Xer.

As Arnold would say, “Look out, behind you” – here comes a tangent. Is there any generation more abused than Generation X? First off, Gen X were born or raised during the sexual revolution (generation baby boomers), where men and women alike decided that they could do whatever pleases them, regardless of the ramifications. The key difference between baby boomer generation and previous generation, aptly named, “the Silent”, was that women were now free to do what pleased them, as opposed to taking the bowl of crap their husbands served them, smile and politely decline a second helping. But they stayed together. Loosely translated, if the baby boomers were a sports franchise they would have been a dynasty, posting an impressive .650 divorce rate during those couple of decades. Nobody wanted to face the Baby Boomers!

So, Gen Xers, come from broken homes. But by the time the Gen Xer’s reached their formidable, adolescent years, the sexual revolution should have evolved into something Gen Xer could truly enjoy,m albeit responsibly, right? Wrong! Gen Xer had to deal with rampaging STD’s (introduced on a global level by, guess who, the Baby Boomers).

Worst yet, Gen Xer is somewhat on the technical side, but really a step behind Gen Yer’s (shouldn’t they have called Gen Xer, Gen A, or at least Gen P, I mean here we are two generations past Gen X and we are already out of generations. That’s piss poor planning that would make Norv Turner proud!). Gen Xer wants to use Facebook, Twitter and such, but doesn’t innately understand how to use them, like the Gen Y does, so they end up posting pictures of themselves with drink in hand. Which leads to condemenation from, yep you guessed it again, the Baby Boomers and ultimately dismissal from their job. Somehow it’s “cute” for Gen Yers to post pictures of themselves half-naked surrounded by a half-dozen other half-naked people while taking a hit off a bong! Meanwhile, the Baby Boomers are over-loading porn sites and praising this newfound technology called the Internets.

Yea, it sucks for the Gen Xer, but at least at the end of their career most will have their family intact (as a result of the “I won’t repeat the mistakes” logic) and retire with what Americans prior to them received, a modest but consistent check from the US Government. Wrong again! The Baby Boomers will suck Social Security dry before most Gen Xers get close to drawing a check. And the worst part of it – those Baby Boomers, despite their hard living they did, will live longer than any generation prior, thanks to the advances in medicine primarily funded by the Gen Xer.

But I’m not bitter. Really, I’m not. Ok, maybe just a tiny bit!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Eagles – A cure to Andy Reid’s Heresyphobia, which of course the fear of challenges. Technically, Heresyphobia is the fear of challenges to official doctrine or of radical deviation, but for the purposes of this column we are taking the definition out of context. Andy Reid used to challenge the spot of a ball to gain an extra half foot in the first quarter of a huge division game, now he is so shell-shocked that he cannot pull the trigger on an obvious challenge (D. Jackson’s fumble that was clearly, from every camera angle in the stadium, down by contact). Andy is going to drive Eagles fans crazy in the playoffs.

Pick: Philadelphia -14.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Minnesota +14.5, “I don’t think that Philly can win by 14 and I think they will keep the game close.”

Me – “Have you seen Joe Webb play quarterback?”

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2.5) – There is an inordinate amount of 2.5 point spreads this week. That’s nuts because more, by a wide margin, NFL games are decided by 3 points than any other point margin. So, you have to take into consideration the psychology of the odds-maker here. They want the bettor to know that they think the team favored by 2.5 isn’t quite as good as the other team. Now that’s a significant half point, because most bettors want to back the better team.

Since this game is on Monday night, my feeling is that the majority of the 2.5 point favorites cover Sunday thus setting up the ultimate “Sting” on Monday – the Saints! Just remember, you heard that logic here first when you’re thumbing your nose at Social Security because you just hit a retirement score!

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Saints – A Hank “Gift” Baskett. Sure the Saints need to be better tacklers and attack down the field in their passing, but I wanted to surprise the Saints with something that never stops giving – Hank Baskett on the kickoff return team of the opposing team. That means an endless supply of, successful, surprise onside kicks.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Falcons – A book titled “The complete guide to the misery that is Cleveland sports”. You see after the Falcons get bounced in the divisional playoff round, there will be a tendency for Atlanta fan to begin feeling sorry for themselves. Woe is us, the Falcons choked, the Braves can’t deliver, the Hawks never win and the Thrashers – they still play in Atlanta, right – well, they’re the Thrashers. Before the self-pity take a week or so to read through Cleveland’s plight. Trust me it will bring back that Southern smile.

Pick: New Orleans +2.5, LHSC: New Orleans +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Atlanta -2.5, “It’s hard to lose by 3 and have you seen that Falcons logo? It looks hungry for some Saints.”

Me – “Again with the ‘it’s hard to lose by three’. Umm, actually it’s not and the Falcons are the team you picked, it doesn’t make sense. How in the world am I losing this contest? “

NFL Week 16 Picks – Part II – Christmas Edition

Merry, I can tell everyone this, right, yea, it’s Christmas day, so politically I should be able to tell everyone Merry Christmas. So, Merry Christmas to all! In honor of the day, the Caveman has graciously decided to hand out gifts to every NFL team. And with my overall season number squarely on the “Mendoza Line” (though technically I am well above the actual “Mendoza”, which is .200; I should come up a set of different comparable “lines” for each situation; so anything under a .500 handicapping record is piss poor and called the “Texans Line”), I am in dire need of some Christmas magic this weekend.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 109-109-6 (.500) (7-9 last week)

LHSC: 32-41-2 (305^th) (3-2 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	29-19
G-Dub	28-20
Caveman	21-27

 

Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona – Remember when the 2010 NFL schedule came out and we all thought this game might determine the #1 seed in the NFC? And we wondered how the NFL Network could steal such a pivotal game from Fox? Now the only way this game will outdraw the Nuggets/Thunder game on ESPN is because of the fantasy geeks tuning in to see how the Cowboys split carries between Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Of course, some viewers might tune in just for the random shot of “Arizona Santa”, the Grand Canyon’s version of Santa donning wife-beater tank top, sunglasses and shorts. You know as if “Arizona Santa” is telling the world how awesome it is to live in Arizona, regardless of how crapastic the sports scene happens to be.

The NFL at this point of the season isn’t that tough to call – figure out which teams have something to play for and ride them. Take, for example, the Steelers on Thursday – they played like crap on offense, but because they are playing for the division, their defense needed to step up big time (playing against Jimmy Clausen never hurts) and they did. The result – an easy cover. Surprisingly the Cowboys are playing as though winning seven games somehow makes their season palatable, while the Cardinals are playing as though they want to rise to the top of the NFL draft, so they can take Andrew Luck.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Cowboys – A few more “Indians”. Like in the sense that they have “too many chiefs and not enough Indians”. Or politically, “Too many cooks in the kitchen”. Translation, the Cowboys have too many stars and not enough players willing to get dirty. Those players that are willing to do the work don’t get enough playing time. Take the aforementioned Tashard Choice, who is clearly the most dynamic running back on the roster yet he has to share carries with two other players that define success as a five yard run, as opposed to the normal crashing into a pile for two yard pick-up.

Caveman’s Christmas gift to the Cardinals – A huge off-season filled with many gifts from the front office. The Cardinals have the third lowest payroll this season and last off-season they waved goodbye to 1. Karlos Dansby (their defensive leader); 2. Antrel Rolle; 3. Kurt Warner; and 4. Anquan Boldin. All of those moves, except for Warner, were financial moves, which, with the exception of Dansby, I agreed with, however, the Cardinals didn’t spend a fraction of the money they saved. And it’s almost like the front office thought, “Hey, lets’ pocket this cash, if things go south we’ll blame it on losing Warner”, then paid out huge bonuses to themselves. Fair enough, but here’s the deal Cardinals – you’re in Arizona where below average teams circle the drain faster than MC Hammer’s money (quick, outside of “U Can’t Touch This”, name another Hammer song, thought so). Add to that the stadium is on the opposite end of the universe from the majority of Cardinals fans and you have the most critical off-season since the Cardinals moved to Glendale in 2006 when they became what we know today as the Anti-Cardinals. And, Larry Fitzgerald is in the final year of his contract next season.

The Cardinals have sold out every home game since they moved to the new building, at first the novelty of the building itself (and the idea that you could watch NFL football in Arizona in Septemberm who kenw?), but then because the team was exciting and winning. But if the Cardinals blow it this off-season, fans will jump ship and the Cardinals will be left playing in front a half full stadium.

Pick: Dallas -7.0, LHSC – Dallas -6.5

 

CaveKid’s Pick – Dallas -7.0, “The Cardinals suck”

Me – “If I don’t make up siginificant ground on CaveKid this week, at least I know I can go with the Cardinals next week to make up a game.”

 

G-Dub – Dallas -7.0

NFL Week 15 Picks – Part II

The Chargers got me off to a good start on Thursday, let’s see if I can post a 14 or 15 win week that will make the past six weeks a distance memory.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 102-100-6 (.505) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 29-39-2 (316^th) (0-5 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	20-12
G-Dub	18-14
Caveman	14-18

 

Arizona @ Carolina (-2.5) – Survivor is now down to five contestants after Jane, the lovable dog trainer from North Carolina, was voted off this past week. It was a somewhat surprising vote considering that Jane was in a solid alliance prior to the tribal council. Jane was obviously disappointed, but instead of approaching the worthless Dan and Fabio duo about a new alliance, she instead decided to spend her last hours crying about Chase turning on her. Uh, Jane, its survivor where the major portion of the game is manipulation and lying!

Anyway as Jane was whining about Chase she mentioned that he better not, “show his face in Carolina”. Yikes, does that mean Jane is going to hunt Chase down with a pack of Pit Bulls specially trained to devour human flesh? So, Chase you have a couple options – win the million so you can afford to hire full-time security or enter the witness protection program. Good luck, pal, what’s the age old saying, “Hell hath no fury than that of a scorned dog trainer from North Carolina”?

There is no way that God would allow the strife in Carolina due to Survivor and in the same week have the Panthers lose to the Cardinals. So, we have that going for the Panthers, uh and, John Skelton making his first road start.

Pick: Carolina -2.5

LHSC – Carolina -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Carolina -2.5, “The Cardinals suck.”

 

New Orleans @ Baltimore (-1.5) – Flash back to Monday night when the Ravens coughed up a 21 point lead to the Texans, only to survive when the Texans pulled a Texans (I think that we can safely change the term “choking” to “pulling a Texans”, effectively they now mean the same). Now picture the same game except substitute the Texans with the Saints. Is there any chance the Saints don’t take care of business in that situation? Exactly.

Oh, and the Ravens played an incredibly physical Sunday night game two weeks ago against Pittsburgh. It catches up with them this week.

Pick: New Orleans +1.5

LHSC – New Orleans +1.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Baltimore -1.5, “It’s hard to lose by just 1 point so I think that the Ravens will win.

G-Dub’s Week 14 Picks

San Francisco +8.5

Arizona +2.5

Cincinnati -1.5

Green Bay +14.0

Houston +1.5

New Orleans +1.5

NY Jets +5.5

Detroit +5.5

Jacksonville +5

Oakland -6.5

Dallas -6

Buffalo +5

Kansas City +1

Atlanta -6

Philadelphia +2.5

Chicago -7.5

It is hard to lose by a point, but if the Ravens lose by a point or win by a point they don’t cover the spread. And I am 6 games behind this logic!

Denver @ Oakland (-6.5) – The Broncos were bloodied by 30 at the hands of the Cardinals last week. The Cardinals! Meanwhile the Raiders are showing signs of life for the first time since 2002, so why is the spread under a touchdown? Also, the Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver by 45 points earlier this season, so again why wouldn’t this game be at least 9.5? Bottom line – the odds-makers do not significantly overreact to prior outcomes, but instead rely on the bettor over-thinking as well as plain old sappy-ass luck (but if they did over-react what would this number be? 27.5, 35?). Under old management, this pick would be over thought and with the Broncos, but with WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow. . .

Pick: Oakland -6.5

LHSC – Oakland -6.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Oakland -7, “Last time Oakland and Denver played Oakland totally blew them out! I’m thinking that they will do this again.”

 

Washington @ Dallas (-7.0) – I loved the Cowboys before this line was posted based on them playing extremely hard despite their challenges in the defensive backfield, playing with a backup quarterback, losing without Dez Bryant and having virtually no running game. But then I got a little gift on Friday – Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins! That should be more than enough to neutralize Dallas defensive backfield.

Pick: Dallas -7.0

LHSC – Washington -6.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Washington +7.0, “The Redskins won by a lot last time and I think that they can either win again or keep the game close.”

 

So, I was really concerned that the logic for this pick would be something along the lines of “it’s the classic matchup of Cowboys and Indians, and we know from history how this turned out.”

 

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-1.5) – “The Battle of Ohio”! The battle of one team whose stadium is named for the legendary coach Paul Brown against the other team whose nickname is Paul Brown. That is something you would expect to see in a soap opera; Holidays around the Ohio dinner table must be a little weird, right? I mean the Bengals decided to name their stadium Paul Brown stadium, why not go further with a nickname change to the “Brownies”? Everyone loves Brownies!

 

This is such a rivalry that I am surprised they don’t play for some sort of collegiate trophy that gets passed to the winner of each contest – you know like Paul Bunyan’s Axe or the Old Oaken Bucket. Except these two could play for the urn that contains Paul Brown’s ashes. The Browns currently hold the urn, but imagine the following happening on Sunday – the Bengals are in position to win the game as Ocho-Cinco and TO get in position to make a run for the Browns sideline. The final gun sounds, Ocho-Cinco runs faster than he has run all season, snags the urn and parades it around the stadium as TO tries to pry it from his hands. That would be priceless, must watch TV. Someone needs to make this happen!

 

Pick: Cincinnati -1.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Cincinnati -1.5, “It’s hard to lose by a point so I think the Bengals will win by at least three.”    

Green Bay @ New England (NL) – Here is a letter I sent to Aaron Rodgers this week:

 

“Mr. Rodgers,

 

On behalf of Packer fans (which I am not) and fantasy players (which I am), I would like to personally thank you for being an ‘EFFING RETARD! Did you really think it was a good idea to run down the middle of the field without sliding? Did it ever occur to you that in the middle of the field, you cannot possibly see the frothing at the mouth Neanderthals coming at you in both directions, thus exposing you to just the type of hit that you took? Hence, you suffered a concussion, which is the modern day equivalent of a broken leg.

 

And in doing so, your single brain-fart moment, you destroyed the Packers playoff hopes. Nice work asswipe, you have caused a massive depression in the state of Wisconsin. That will lead to an entire state attempting to medicate themselves with cheese fondue all winter long!

 

From a fantasy perspective, your absence from this weekend’s game based on your poor decision is bad enough, but those depending on Greg Jennings (BTW, please thank him for dropping that 73 yard TD last week) are also SOL this week. And yes, I have Greg Jennings on my team so effectively you have taken my best receiver out as well. Hell, Aaron why don’t you fly to Indianapolis this week and slam MJD’s hurting knee with a lead pipe. You know just to complete the trifecta for me.

 

Best wishes in the off-season, enjoy watching the Bears in the playoffs! ”

 

Yea, I am just a little bitter about what happened last week with Rodgers. And realistically just about every quarterback in the NFL understands that running in the middle of the field is dangerous. I look at it the same way I did when John McClain was forced stand on a Harlem street corner while wearing a racist, offensive sign – it wasn’t going to end well.

 

Pick: New England -13.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New England -4.5, “The Patriots have won most of their games and when they did win it was by a lot.”

 

Houston @ Tennessee (-1.5) – The Titans have quit defensively. How do I know? The Colts ran the ball at will on them. Allowing the Colts to run the ball is as bad as that no-talent, reality show star Kate Gosselin making 3.5 million a year! I realize that has nothing to do with football, but can you freakin’ believe that she makes that much coin? Who is watching that show to support that salary? And what about the husband, John, he must feel like a real schmuck, right? Considering when the show was “John and Kate, plus Eight”, he probably made porn-type money ($500 per episode). Honestly, I am ready to throw a bunch of crap in my house, call myself a hoarder and give one of these reality shows a call – “Please, help me, CaveKids cannot have any friends because of my problem, put me on TV!”

 

And since the Titans have quit on defense, you have to like the Texans chances, with their offensive weapons. My only fear is that if any team can find a way to lose to a team that has quit it’s the Texans.

 

Pick: Houston +1.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Houston +1.5, “They blew Tennessee out last time and I think they will do it again.”

 

Uh, that was in Houston with Rusty Smith playing. Nice research Cavekid!

 

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) – I liked the Jets long before it was announced that Troy Polamalu was doubtful to play. It’s pretty simple here, the Jets are desperate, the Steelers are banged up on both sides of the ball and 5.5 points is too much for a game that will be this low scoring.

 

Pick: NY Jets +5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New York +5.5, “I think that the Jets will keep the game close and only lose by 3.”

 

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (-5.5) – I love the Bucs this week, big time, like Josh Freeman to Mike Williams for three touchdowns big time. Yep, that is my fantasy replacement for Rodgers/Jennings this week, which a little like the replacement Griswold kids in European Vacation – the douche-bag kid they had playing Rusty (Jason Lively, who?) compared with Anthony Michael Hall was a total joke. And to think any girl who isn’t blind would think that kid was cute is a stretch even for Hollywood. While the original Audrey was forgettable, she wasn’t nearly as annoying that pig that played the part in European. Even Chevy mailed in European. My guess because when he showed up on set he saw the replacement kid and was like “WTF, I need to be more involved in the decision making process.”

Yea, this guy is cute, if he was swimming is a pool of hundred dollar bills!

Maybe Freeman and Williams aren’t quite that bad, but still. BTW, have I mentioned how pissed I am at Aaron Rodgers?

 

Pick: Tampa Bay -5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Tampa Bay -5.5, “Tampa is the home team and I think that that will help Tampa win the game.”

 

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5.0) – I’ve become a believer in this Jags team (sorry jag fans, I know that is the kiss of death). And you know what I think they think they’re simply tougher than the Colts. And they will turn this game into a street fight, which completely plays into their favor.

 

“The Jags win the AFC South, the Jags win the AFC South”

 

Pick: Jacksonville +5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Jacksonville +5.0, “I think the Jags will keep it close and maybe even win again.”

 

Buffalo @ Miami (-5.0) – Is it me or is there a ton of 5-6.5 point spreads this week? Seven of the 16 games are in that range – which is tempting if you believe the favored team is significantly better, however, if the case can be made that the underdog stands a chance to win, then it is comforting to get those extra 2-3 points.

 

As we know a ton of NFL games are decided by a field goal, and while getting five extra points doesn’t seem like a bunch it really covers a lot of middle ground. For example, you get the win on – any three point win and the dreaded four point game (21-17, team driving needing a touchdown as opposed to a field goal). And at worst you get a push when down 11, score a touchdown with a missed two conversion. That’s a lot of room for error with two relatively equal teams.

 

The Dolphins are the superior team, but the Bills never quit; the Dophins won a huge game last week, woke up Monday and realized they are still not going to make the playoffs, thus reducing their incentive; and the Dolphins suck at home.

 

Pick: Buffalo +5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Miami -5.0, “I think that the Dolphins will blow out Buffalo.”

 

Kansas City @ St. Louis (-2.0) –“The Battle of Missouri”. I remember back in 2000 when these two teams played – “the greatest show on turf” (notice there is no “D”) against an up-coming Trent Green-led Chiefs team, I think the final score was something like an arena football game 58-34. I remember watching the game at a bar with handful of Chiefs fans. As the Chiefs started piling on the points, they were going crazy to which my buddy, a fellow Rams fan, screamed out, “You know what the difference between the Chiefs and the Rams is? At the end of the season the Rams will be in the Super Bowl. Enjoy this meaningless regular season game.” I thought it was hilarious, mostly because, save 1999, the Rams were the worst franchise in the NFL in the 90s that one year turned us all into brazen smack talker. Of course, with a reasonably competent head coach, the Rams would have won three straight titles!

 

Pick: St. Louis -2.0

CaveKid’s Pick – St. Louis -2.0, “I think the Rams will win by at least three.”

 

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-2.5) – So, new management no longer reads into the odds-makers line, except when there is strong precedence for a line, like this Eagles/Giants game. The Falcons/Packers game had a similar line, where essentially the bookmaker told us then that the Packers were a better team than the Falcons (Atlanta was favored by 2.5). So now we are led to believe thatthe Eagles are better than the Giants. That wittle .5 point has a major impact on the bettors, because most bettors feel more comfortable taking the superior team. I maintain the odds-makers pull out the 2.5 spread for big games and consistently rake in the cash. “Not on my watch!” – Mr. WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow

 

Pick: NY Giants -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Philadelphia +2.5, “I think that the Eagles will blow the Giants out again just like last time.”

 

Atlanta (-6.0) @ Seattle – My vote for NFL MVP is Seattle WR “Big” Mike Williams. With him the Seahawks have a semblance of an offense, without him they make the Jets look like the Patriots. He is back this week and a little know fact about this juggernaut that is the Falcons – they struggle against the pass.

 

I love the NFC West where every week’s “must win” is turned quickly into “we still have a shot, but next week is a must win”. Seattle keeps it close, plus Atlanta is due for a stink bomb!

 

Pick: Seattle +6.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Atlanta -6.0, “I think that the Falcons will win this one by a lot because every time that Seattle has lost they have lost by more than 7 points.”

 

Chicago (NL) @ Minnesota –“The Battle of two teams coming off royal beatings”. Yea, the Bears and Vikings took beatings worse than the Apostle Paul at the hands of Romans.

 

And this game is going to be played outdoors, in Minnesota, at night, without those fancy underground heating coils – hmmm, is there a prop bet on the number of concussions that result from players hitting their heads on the frozen turf?

Uh, Joe Webb is starting for the Vikings. Who’d thunk the Vikes would be pining for Brett Favre about now. How about the over/under for this game at 32.5! This will be a massive Bears blowout that goes well under – like 24-7.

“The Bears win the NFC North, the Bears win the NFC North!”

Pick: Chicago -7.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Chicago +1.5, “I think that the Bears have it in them to win again even though they are the away team.”

NFL Week 15 Picks – Part I

“Step into my pain cave and I will bludgeon thee!”

Quiz time, the above is:

1. Lyrics to a song written (and performed) by Wayne’s World reclusive character Garth Algar
   
2. A skit, that seemingly repeats weekly, where the pain cave is the sports book, the bludgeoner is the odds-maker and the bludgeoned is this guy (two thumbs pointing at Caveman)
   
3. Both a and b
   

Funny thing is I was on my way to the Penthouse Cave, where I planned to enjoy all the things that most Cavemen can only dream about. Instead, I forgot to print out directions, made a wrong turn and ended up in the aforementioned pain cave. For the past six weeks, I’ve been trapped in the pain cave and treated worse than an Iraqi POW by the US troops. My captor – mostly the odds-makers, but there are small portions attributable to my over-thinking and consistent bad luck.

The bad luck will eventually turn, right? Right? I thought it had with the Titans improbable cover last Thursday, but my week ended with a unbelievable, crushing spread defeat in the Texans/Ravens game. In the middle I suffered four humiliating losses (two in the Super Contest), two backdoor cover losses and loss where the team I backed lost their starting quarterback (the added bonus that it happened to also be my fantasy quarterback).

For the second time this season I lost a game where I laid two points but picked the winner correctly (ironically, both games were the Bucs and both games finished 17-16, yea it’s a crazy year!). It’s gotten to the point where if the team I picked can get beat with a last second score, they will. And I expect it. Hello, degenerate, expecting to lose, gambling Caveman, goodbye college fund!

I’ve lost my mojo, big time, which is the equivalent to an NFL head coach losing his team. How bad has it gotten? I got two comments last week on my picks – “I had already turned in my picks prior yours getting posted. I was disappointed because I was hoping to reverse your picks.” And “I thought this would be a little like a slump in baseball, you’d hit your way out of it. But I think you might need a trip to the minors.”

Ouch! And that doesn’t include the constant berating I receive at home at the hands of CaveKid. After two weeks of our competition, CaveKid holds a commanding six game lead! I felt so confident I would turn it around that I offered a sweetheart, “double or nothing”-type of bet last week – four months of chores, $100 cash and let her pick out the Family Christmas gift (you know the “Family” Christmas gift, wink, wink, the one that is usually something for the family, like the Madden video game or a PSP that we share, so getting to pick it is a big deal). Her stake in the deal – two dinners, one she pays for, the other she has to cook. So, basically I punished myself by adding in a dinner she has to cook. Whoop-dee-do!

Here is an alarming trend that I would title “The train-wreck that has been my season”:

As you can easily identify, Caveman, is just barely above the Mendoza line, while SuperContest Caveman is well below the Mendoza line. Remember back in week 2, when I seemingly could not lose? Yea, that was fun.

In my last gasp effort to salvage a peaceful off-season, I am pulling a move that has worked for a couple NFL teams – I am firing myself as head of the handicapping division of Caveman Inc. That’s right, gone is the over-thinking, partial statistical analyzing, “sharp” pretender.

I am happy to introduce my new head of handicapping – Mr. WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow. Mr. WhatISeeIsWhatIKnow comes with a wealth of experience, but he will keep things as simple as – “he believes what he sees” and “if a team is better, they are the better play”.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 102-100-6 (.505) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 29-39-2 (316^th) (0-5 last week)

 

SuperCave Contest Standings

CaveKid	20-12
G-Dub	18-14
Caveman	14-18

 

San Francisco @ San Diego (-8.5) – Die, dammit, die, you rat bastard 49ers. I’m not sure whether the 49ers are more like a horror film’s villain or a personal nightmare where you’re repeatedly hitting an intruder but fail to do major damage. In either case they aren’t going away. I wish I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard, “If the 49ers lose this game, they’re done!” The reality? This game against the Chargers isn’t a must win for them. Yes, that’s correct they can lose this game. Their season will come down to the road game in the “Lou” next week. So, this game is dispensable. And with injuries to Patirck Willis and Takeo Spikes, look for the 49ers to “rest” up for their big divisional game next week.

That’s the support for the Chargers, but under the new management – it’s simple the Chargers are in a must “win out” situation (like last year, the year before last, the year before that and so on) and they’re clearly a better team, playing at home. Not close!

Pick: San Diego -8.5

LHSC – San Diego -8.5

CaveKid’s Pick – San Francisco +8.5, “No way San Diego can win by 9 or more”

G-Dub – San Francisco +8.5

 

 

NFL Week 14 Picks – Part II

The Titans were the easiest cover of the year! When you get a cover like that to start the week, it is a sign of good things to come. So, for those of you that have been, profitably, reversing my picks over the last couple weeks, this is the week to stop.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 96-90-6 (.513) (8-8 last week)

LHSC: 29-34-2 (Tied for 257^th) (1-4 last week)

Standings
CaveKid	10-6
Caveman	8-8
G-Dub	7-9

New England (-3.0) @ Chicago – I have a two new “play” theories this week – go with a team that plays in a Thursday game the prior week (extra time to prepare) and go against a team in their second game after they play in a Thursday game (not enough time to prepare). The Patriots played on Thanksgiving two weeks ago.

In addition to that going against the Patriots, we also have them on a short week (played Monday night), let down game (drubbed the Jets) and my general feeling that this Pats team should not be favored in Chicago. And did you know that the Patriots killed the Jets Monday night?

Pick: Chicago +3.0

LHSC – Chicago +3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – New England Patriots -3.0, “They have won most of their games and have won them by a lot. Plus, Tom Brady is doing really good right now.”

I just realized CaveKid is the general, “square” public. I really need to talk to her about trying to apply logic to her picks. I thought we would see more, “I think the Patriots because the Patriots were savages who craved freedom and would destroy anything standing in their way, including adorable Bears.”, illogically reasoning.

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas – Don’t get me wrong, I am impressed with the turn around by the Cowboys, but what happens to the Cowboys if they don’t get a special teams or defensive touchdown? Or what if the other team doesn’t gift them possessions in the red zone?

The last four Cowboys games have included a three “pick-6″ returns, two punt return touchdowns, a fluke 71 yard screen pass touchdown on 3^rd and 10 (which came with the added bonus of giving Felix Jones fantasy legitimacy), a 60 yard touchdown run on a reverse and three touchdown drives of less than 40 yards. That’s a lot of random, good fortune that went the Cowboys way. Good future is fickle and when it runs out, it really runs out!

Pick: Philadelphia -3.5

LHSC – Philadelphia -3.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Dallas Cowboys +3.5, “I think that the Cowboys will keep the game close and if Tony Romo can keep the pace they could even win this one.”

Holy crap, Romo is playing in this game! I had no idea, I’m screwed!

Baltimore (-3.0) @ Houston – If you’re a fan of the Texans, you have to be thinking back to those three straight excruciating losses in the middle of the season – Chargers, Jaguars and Jets – and wondering what could’ve been if even one of those games goes their way. The Texans know exactly what it must feel like to play the Dillon Panthers every week, you know, they have lost games they seem to have an unbelievable Hollywood type of script to them.
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The Texans are the play here because – they’ve had the extra time to prepare and I never play the Ravens (or Steelers) the week after they play the Steelers (too physical of a game to recuperate).

Pick: Houston +3.0

LHSC – Houston +3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Baltimore Ravens -3, “The Ravens play good when they are the away team and I think that this game will be a blow out.”

I actually agree with CaveKid on the blowout portion, we merely differ on the team administering the blowout.

G-Dub’s Week 14 Picks

Tennessee +3.0

Carolina +7.5

Buffalo -1

New England -3

Tampa Bay -1.5

Oakland +3.5

Pittsburgh -8.5

Detroit +6.5

NY Giants -3

Arizona +4

New Orleans -8.5

Ny Jets -5.5

Kansas City +9

San Francisco -5

Philadelphia -3.5

Baltimore -3

Denver (-4.0) @ Arizona– It’s bad enough that the Cardinals are starting John “Red” Skelton , but one big hit to Skelton and the pride of Tarleton State, Rich Bartel, will be taking snaps for the Cardinals. Rich Bartel? Really, Cardinals, that was the best quarterback available? A guy who has never attempted an NFL pass; he doesn’t even appear in the NFL.com players search for goodness sake. Wasn’t Matt Saracen available?

Pick: Denver -4.0

LHSC – Denver -5.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Denver Broncos -4.0, “The Cardinals suck.”

Tampa Bay (-1.5) @ Washington – You have to love the Bucs this week given the fact that Albert Haynesworth has been suspended!

The Skins are circling the drain. However, I do have some concern that the Bucs will suffer a hangover from that brutal loss to the Falcons that essentially ended their season. To make the playoffs the Bucs would have to win their last four games (including beating the Saints in New Orleans) and still get some help. Not. Going. To. Happen.

But the Redskins seemingly have quit on Shanahan much Nay and Kelly “purple” quit on Survivor, which is about as bad as it gets, right. How do you go 28 of 39 days, then pull the plug when you have an 11% chance at a million? Plus, I think Naonka had a great chance to make it to the final vote, simply because her behavior was so radical and offensive that she there would be no way she could win a vote off.

Kelly “purple” must have figured, “Hey, I’m hot and now I’m somewhat famous, I will marry a super rich guy and be set, screw this!” Well, that still might happen, but I have a warning to potential rich guy – you didn’t become super rich by making bad decisions and surrounding yourself with quitters, don’t do it for a piece of tail. Fast forward into the future, where you will see Kelly “purple” quitting on her kids, her husband, her body, etc. Don’t do it man, just don’t do it! End reality show rant!

Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5

LHSC – Tampa Bay -2.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Washington Redskins +1.5, “I think the Redskins will win because they won last season by 3 points.”

Atlanta (-7.0) @ Carolina – Rumor has it that at halftime of the Panthers/Seahawks, Coach John Fox received a call from owner Jerry Richardson, who asked him, “What the hell are you doing? I want the first overall pick.” Fox had no choice but call off the dogs and accept defeat. How else do you explain getting drubbed 28-0 in the second half by the Seahawks.

I still don’t think the Falcons are very good, but I am rooting for them to win out and secure the #1 seed in the NFC, because then I can hammer their opponent in the playoffs – hello early retirement!

Pick: Atlanta -7.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Atlanta Falcons -7.0, “Last year the Falcons won by 8 points and the Panthers have the worst record against the spread at home.”

I am creating a monster here – look at that statement “against the spread”. Fast forward to CaveKid in a professional setting – she is going to be the office pool administrator, betting on everything from the NCAA tournament to the next person in the office to be fired.

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-1.0) – Why are the Bills favored in this game? The Bills cannot stop the run and the Browns only want to run. It seems like a complete mismatch, especially if the weather forecast in Buffalo holds up – heavy winds and freezing rain. It all adds up to the Browns with an easy win, right? Of course, but as we know the books love giving money away, especially at this time of year!

Pick: Buffalo -1.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Buffalo Bills -1, “They have a slight advantage just because they are the home team.”

Miami @ NY Jets (-5.5) – This falls under the second game away from a Thursday game theory, but then the Jets got drilled on Monday which threw a twist into the obvious play for the Dolphin’s. So, I had to dig a bit deeper; my initial expectation of the line was Jets -7. So, the Jets get ripped, the line is posted lower and the number of embarrassed Jets fans who cannot wait to bet on the Jets is outrageous. Sure enough 64% of the bettors are backing the Jets. And hey, it’s the NFL 2010, so we need to expect the unexpected.

Pick: Miami +5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Miami Dolphins +5.5, “Miami will keep the game close, I don’t think that the Jets will be able to win by 6 points.”

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-8.5) – This is a straitjacket game. What’s a straitjacket game? It’s a game where you have bet on a team, but before sitting down to watch the game you request a straitjacket be placed on you so you cannot cause any property damage that could potentially get you arrested or, worse, force to sleep with the dogs for a week. That’s the feeling when you back Carson Palmer on the road!

Pick: Cincinnati +8.5

Cavekid’s Pick – Cincinnati Bengals +8.5, “The Steelers haven’t won many games by more than 8 points.”

Hmmm, decent logic except that the Steelers have won three games this year by more than 8 points. So, only 37.5% of their wins have been by 8 or more points!

Green Bay (-6.5) @ Detroit – I am little leery of the Packers in this game for a couple of reasons, 1. The Lions can rush the passer with their front four, which will cause problems for Aaron Rodgers; and 2. it seems the Lions rise to the occasion for division games, where despite not winning a division game, they’re 4-1 against the spread. So, with a bit of trepidation, I will go with the Pack.

Pick: Green Bay -6.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Detroit +6.5, “I don’t think that Green Bay can win by 7 points because last time these two teams played the score was within two points.”

Was the score within two points or was it exactly two points? That is an age old question similar to a Philosophy 101 question – “Is the chair really there?

Oakland @ Jacksonville (-3.5) – There are dueling systems at play for this game. On the Jaguars side, you have the west coast team traveling across the country for what a 10AM (west coast time) start. Working against the Jaguars is the “look ahead” game next week against the Colts, a game which essentially will decide the AFC South. Also, the Jags have figured out who they are – a physical team that runs the ball and plays decent defense.

This is a tough one, but at the end of the day – the west coast teams suck in the early east coast games is simply too strong.

Pick: Jacksonville -3.5

Cavekid’s pick – Oakland Raiders +3.5, “I think the game will be close and they won’t lose by more than four.”

Kansas City @ San Diego (-9.0) – The Chiefs can deliver a knockout punch to not only the Chargers playoff chances, but also put an end to the horror that has been the “Norv Turner” era in San Diego.

In light of that here is my pitch for a new reality show, called “Norv happens!” – the plot being, each year Norv Turner takes over the defending Super Bowl champion and we see how far they fall with Norv calling the shot. We can even take it a step further and allow Norv to take over the Super Bowl favorite around week 14. My guess is, you could give Norv the Super Bowl favorite at the start of the playoffs and he when his time on Earth is done, he would be ringless.

Pick: Kansas City +9.0

CaveKid’s pick – San Diego Chargers -9.0, “Their record at home is good and I think they can win again at home.”

NY Giants (-3.0) @ Minnesota – The Giants have knocked out Tomy Romo and Jay Cutler this year, now they get a chance to put a statuesque Brett Favre down for the count. And please, you know Favre is starting this game. In fact, you know Favre is starting regardless of whether or not it’s the right thing for the Vikings.

The Giants cannot afford to lose this game and the Vikings are playing for pride.

Pick: NY Giants -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – New York Giants -3, “I hate Brett Favre.”

Surprisingly, the Favre-hate extends far and wide.

St. Louis @ New Orleans (-8.5); Seattle @ San Francisco (-5.0) – The 6-10 dream is over for the NFC West champion, as both the Rams and Seahawks are 6-6 and play each other in week 17. But we still have a fantastic chance at seeing a one in a lifetime 7-9 division champ. Here’s what needs to happen:

San Francisco – beats Seattle, loses either in St. Louis or San Diego

Seattle – loses to SF, Atlanta and Tampa Bay; beats St. Louis

St. Louis – loses to NO, Seattle and KC; beats SF

That puts Seattle in the playoffs at 7-9. The Hawks have a huge home field advantage which gives them t least a chance to pull off a 2008 Cardinals-type run. I know that’s a stretch, but hang with me here – let’s say a team like the Bears head to the great Northwest for a Wild-card round playoff game. They could win that game. Then they head to Atlanta for divisional playoff game. Tough game but I am already on record as believing the Falcons are a fraud. And what if the Saints are the #6 seed and win two games. The Saints at the Seahawks for the NFC Championship, which with the homefield and the fact the Saints already look like a team begging to have the season end, could be a victory. Then it is one game for all the marbles and yes, the Seahawks take care of business, when the NFL, feeling horrible about the “rim job” the Hawks got in their last Super Bowl, gives them the majority of the calls. And isn’t an 11-9 Super Bowl Champion exactly what the NFL wants?

Picks: St. Louis +8.5 and Seattle +5.0

Cavekid’s Picks – St. Louis Rams +8.5, “The Rams will keep the game close.”

Seattle Seahawks +5.0, “Seattle will keep the game close or even win. The last time the game was a blow out.”

NFL Week 14 Picks – Part I

A humbled Caveman attempts to keep turn the tables with the on-fire CaveKid or he will be taking out the garbage, cleaning up dog crap, cleaning a bedroom and cleaning up after dinner for two months while being taunted by a smart elic teen-ager. But, hey on the bright side I took down G-Dub last week!

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 96-90-6 (.513) (8-8 last week)

LHSC: 29-34-2 (Tied for 257^th) (1-4 last week)

 

CaveKid	10-6
Caveman	8-8
G-Dub	7-9

 

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Tennessee – If it appeared as though the Titans packed in last week against the Jaguars, they did! So, the obvious choice here is the Colts, right? Not so fast. Fact – the Jaguars are much more physical than the Colts, which will cause a team on the verge of packing it in, pack in it! The Colts are a finesse team, so this will be more like the powder puff bowl. Fact – the Jaguars can run the football, the Colts cannot! Fact – Covers has the consensus on this game at 82% on the Colts, yea you know what that means. Fact – The Colts cannot stop the run and the Titans have, a well rested, Chris Johnson.

And finally, Shannon Sharpe was quoted as saying, “There is not a scenario that I see where the Titans win this game!” Really, Shannon? No scenario at all? What if Peyton Manning gets a terrible case of diarrhea, can’t stop crapping and Jim Sorgi takes the majority of the snaps? That’s what I thought!

Pick: Tennessee +3.5

 

CaveKid’s Pick – Indianapolis -3.5, “In both games last year, the Colts won by more than 4 points.”

 

G-Dub – Tennessee +3.5, ” “

NFL Week 13 Pick – Part II

Season Totals: 88-82-6 (.517) (6-10 last week) 1-0 This Week

LHSC: 28-30-2 (Tied for 231^st) (1-4 last week) 1-0 This Week

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay – You know what – I am not drinking the Falcon Kool-Aid at all; in fact I think they’re a very, very mediocre team. They remind me of the 2004 Chicago Bears or the 2001 Chicago Bears, in that all those teams won a lot of games by catching teams at the right time, get the majority of the breaks to fall their way or just winning close and ugly. In the NFL, things tend to even out in the end, so I think we’re looking at a “retirement score” type of bet, if the Falcons get a first round bye.

Plus, this Bucs team is good – they slugged it out with the Ravens last week, though they lost they impressed me more than in the loss than they have in most of their wins. They’re for real!

Pick: Tampa Bay +3.0

LHSC – Tampa Bay +3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Atlanta Falcons -3,
“The Falcons because they are favored at home and Tampa hasn’t been beating good teams.”

My comments – Nice research, the Bucs are the home team!

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-3.0) – Did you ever think that Kerry Collins would be a sight for sore eyes when he lines up behind center for the Titans on Sunday? Me neither, but after Vince Young attack fans with his shoulder pads and the Rusty Smith era, Titans fan will be screaming as though they just ran into Jimmie Johnson at the market.

Fantasy alert – if you’re playing against Chris Johnson this week, well, in the eternal words of Arnold, “Look Out….” Yea, CJ is going to go off this week.

And one more thing, this Jags team has some balls leading this division after week 12!

Pick: Tennessee -3.5

LHSC – Tennessee -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Tennessee Titans -3.5,
“The Titans defense is pretty good and last time Jacksonville and Tennessee played Tennessee beat them 30-3.”

Denver @ Kansas City (-8.5) – Doesn’t it seem like favorites of more than a touchdown are having a tough time covering, but still winning? It does to me, or maybe that’s just due to the fact that I feel like I’ve taken a cattle prod up the kazoo over the last couple of weeks on teams not covering but winning. Anyway, part of the problem is these teams shut it down way too late and lack the killer instinct. Enter Todd Haley, who cried about Denver running up the score a few weeks back – you remember, he refused to shake McDaniels hand but then the next day he apologized for being a whiny, teenage girl. So, here is what happened – once Haley calmed down, he realized, “hey, this schmuck is coming to KC in a couple weeks”. I remember early 90s when the AFC Central division had some massive amount of discontent between head coaches, Chuck Noll, Sam Wyche and Jerry Glanville, so much so that Wyche called a timeout to allow his Bengals team to kick a last second field goal, up 58-7. Now those were fun days! Anyway, Todd Haley will not hesitate to run up the score Sunday and really isn’t that all you can ask for if you lay big points?

Pick: Kansas City -8.5

LHSC – Kansas City -8.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Denver Broncos +8.5,
“I think the Broncos they will keep the game close and maybe even win.”

G-Dub’s Picks

Houston +8

Tampa Bay +3.0

Minnesota -5.5

Detroit +4.5

Cleveland +4.5

Washington +7.0

New Orleans -6.5

Tennessee -3.5

St. Louis -3.5

San Francisco +9.0

Oakland +12.5

Kansas City -8.5

Dallas +5.5

Seattle -5.5

Baltimore -3.0

NY Jets +3.5

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-3.0) – This game smells like a field goal game, but I really thought the odds-makers would throw the “hook” (3 to 3.5) on this game, just to make it a little more interesting. Too many things are going against the Steelers – Big Ben has a broken foot, Mendenhall carried the ball 36 times last week and the Steelers played almost five quarters last week. Add it up and Baltimore wins by exactly 3.5 points.

Pick: Baltimore -3.0

LHSC – Baltimore -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Baltimore Ravens -3,
“The Ravens because the Steelers have Worthlessberger as a QB.”

My comments – I like the logic but don’t try calling him Worthlessberger to his face, he and little Benny will teach you a lesson. I am just happy that CaveKid is too young for a douche like Roethlisberger; at least I think she is.

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Cincinnati – Remember when the Bengals were 2-1? That was awesome! Or so says the late Chris Farley. Look the Bengals have become a surrender team (a surrender team is a team that had high expectations, but saw the season go south and packed it in, hoping to avoid injury), but every surrender team has a game down the stretch that is their “playoffs”. And this that game for the Bengals.

Pick: Cincinnati -6.5

CaveKid’s Pick – New Orleans Saints -6.5, “Drew Brees has Reggie Bush playing again which should mean that he will play better.”

My comments – Uh, did you watch the game last week – Bush almost cost the Saints the game and he certainly didn’t help Brees play any better – man this is going to be easier than I thought!

Washington @ NY Giants (-7.0)– Look it’s a division game, with the Giants so banged up at wide receiver that they contacted Phil McConkey this week about a potential comeback, how can I possibly feel comfortable laying the points? I can’t and I won’t. The Redskins, save the Eagles game, seem to play every game within a field goal.

Pick: Washington +7.0

CaveKid’s Pick – New York Giants -7,
“The Giants because they have won 6 out of the 7 they have played against the Redskins.”

St. Louis (-3.5) @ Arizona – OK, we all remember having a girlfriend that just wasn’t quite right for us, right? She adored us, and maybe that was the problem, but for whatever reason we couldn’t reciprocate and we break her heart by giving up on her. Until she decided to start seeing someone else, then we did everything we could to keep her away from the new guy, even though we still didn’t want her. The girl is the NFC West, the guy who doesn’t want her is the Cardinals and the new guy is the Rams. Sadly, this sad sack of crap Cardinals team will rise up and play, probably, their best game of the year, which should be enough to hang tough or beat the Rams. I. Hope. I. Am. Wrong.

Pick: Arizona +3.5

CaveKid’s Pick – St. Louis Rams -3.5,
“The Cardinals suck.”

My comments – It something woven into the DNA of fans of any Arizona team – apathy. After last year’s playoff game she told me, “I love the Cardinals”, now she is the first one jumping off the bandwagon.

Buffalo @ Minnesota (-5.5) – EPSN introduced a new app call the “Playoff Machine” this week, which I believe was solely intended to keep Viking fans from lighting themselves on fire. Yep, the Vikings are actually mathematically alive for the playoffs! In fact, the Vikings are still alive for a #2 seed! They just need to win their last five games, Atlanta, Chicago and Philadelphia to lose the rest of their games, Green Bay to finish 1-4 and the NY Giants to finish no better than 9-7 with a loss to the Vikings in week 16. So, you’re saying there is a chance!

Buffalo has been a little too pesky lately, their due for a royal ass beating!

Pick: Minnesota -5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Minnesota Vikings -5.5, “Their head coach’s last name is Frazier, and that was the name of my dog.”

My comments – I knew there would be at least one, “My soccer team’s mascot is the Huskies and, well, Andy Reid is Husky, so I picked the Eagles”, logic defying pick.

Dallas @ Indianapolis (-5.5) – According the above mentioned Playoff Machine, even the Cowboys are still alive for a playoff berth, which is good news for my buddy Petey. Pete was over-joyed at the playoff machine since he has spent 6-8 hours analyzing the ‘Boys playoff possibilities after every Cowboy loss. My fear is when Pete finds out the Cowboys are officially eliminated we will find him hung like Brooks from Shawshank.

The Colts are so banged up at wide receivers that they held tryouts this week – the only requirement was you had to be white and willing to take a number between 10 and 19.

Pick: Dallas +5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Indianapolis Colts -5.5, “I think the Cowboys are still disappointed after their Thanksgiving Day loss.”

Chicago (-4.5) @ Detroit –I love how Bears are now getting so much love from former Bear haters! I will also love next week after the Lions whip them all those haters turning on them and telling everyone, “I knew the Bears were not for real!”

Plus, did you realize that Sunday is the one year anniversary of Ndamukong Suh’s Big XII performance. Oh no, just when we thought Cutler had turned the corner he is going to get eaten alive by Suh!

I am taking the Lions, but praying the Alphonso Smith is on the bench. Who is Alphonso Smith? Go to this Youtube search, the first entry is “Deoin Branch Huge Touchdown on thanksgiving” (sic). Play it! It’s one thing to get burned deep, but to miss eight tackles on the same guy, well that is priceless! Oh, and he got burned a couple series’ later for another “practice” type of touchdown.

Oh, and yes I know Drew Stanton is playing quarterback for the Lions.

Pick: Detroit +4.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Chicago Bears -4.5,
“The Bears have a much better record than Detroit does!”

Cleveland @ Miami (-4.5) – Is it a coincidence that the Browns are playing the Dolphins the same week the Cavs played the Heat? The Cavs laid an egg, which opens the door for the Browns to build some serious good will with the city. As strange as it seem I think a win over the Dolphins, would vicariously allow Cleveland fans to feel some sort of victory of LeBron. I know it is puzzling but hey, it’s Cleveland after all so you can throw sports logic right out the window. Any way I can just picture that Peyton Hillis is rallying the troops in the locker room, getting them ready to play the Dolphins and at the same time sending a the message “Hey, Cleveland, we got your back!”

After reading the paragraph every man in Cleveland is seriously contemplating leaving their wife for Hillis.

Pick: Cleveland +4.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Miami Dolphins -4.5,
“They are favored at home.”

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-9.0) – I wish some team would kill this 49er team once and for all! The Rams had their chance, the Cardinals packed it in after the third play of the game and now the 49ers are a single game out of the playoffs. On one hand having a Mike Singletary coached team in the playoffs could be very lucrative, but on the other this team is dreadful, there a little bit like Gerry Cooney, not really very good but hard to knock out.

I implore the Packers to drive a stake through this vampiress. Please McCarthy take care of the little things this week, for example, please don’t run four straight quarterback sneaks from the one yard line. And Aaron Rodgers, please don’t start your slide a half yard before the first down on 3 & 10. And Packer special teamers, please, please take care of business this week. For the love of God – please end the 49ers season, even 49er fans want this!

Pick: Green Bay -9.0

CaveKid’s Pick – Green Bay Packers -9.0,
“Frank Gore is out for the 49ers and I think the Packers will outplay them.”

Carolina @ Seattle (-5.5) – Worst. Game. Ever. This reminds of back when the Cardinals used to play at Sun Devil Stadium. Occasionally we would have an extra ticket that we would offer to anyone at the bar who might want a free ticket to an NFL football game. AN NFL FOOTBALL GAME! Most often than not, nobody would take the ticket and the response was most often something along the lines of, “Uh, nah, I will pass!” as though at first it sounded like a great idea (AN NFL FOOTBALL GAME) but then they realized it was the Cardinals! That’s this game! I wonder if the Seahawks will refer to the half filled stadium as the “11.5 man”!

The Panthers are a bad football team, but I have noticed the last couple weeks they have some fight in them. Also, this Mike Goodson kid has lit a fire under J. Stew, who wasn’t much interested in playing until Goodson started racking up 100 yard games against tough defenses. Now Stewart is all of a sudden healthy. So, essentially the Panthers are the same team they were last season, except instead of starting a turnover machine at quarterback they have a rookie instead, which is a huge upgrade!

Pick: Carolina +5.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Seattle Seahawks -5.5,
“The Panthers are in the middle of another 5 game losing streak.”

Oakland @ San Diego (-12.5) – Playing a streaks is a strategy that many ‘cappers use as part of their decision making process. The problem with that is two-fold – 1. knowing when the streak starts; and 2. the streak is eventually going to come to an end. So, it’s about timing.

The Chargers have covered four consecutive spreads, my guess is plenty of people have picked up the scent that the Chargers are doing their typical Charger-thing, suck early, but dominate late. And they will dismiss the 12.5 points as nothing considering the Chargers have spotted their last two opponents a 7-0 lead, yet won by 21 and 19 respectively. You know what happens when you dismiss anything in handicapping? In the words of Dennis Hopper, “bad things, man, bad things!”

Pick: Oakland +12.5

CaveKid’s Pick – Oakland Raiders +12.5, “I don’t think that the Chargers can win by 13 points.”

NY Jets @ New England (-3.5) – I am surprised that ESPN didn’t start analyzing this game during pre-game of the 49ers and Cardinals. And I don’t mean simply talking up the game; I mean actually analyzing the Jets and Pats as though they were playing last Monday. At the end of the pre-game, Chris Berman could’ve said something along the lines of “But that is next week, tonight it’s the Cards and 49ers, Mike.”

As to this game – well I simply think the Jets are a better team and getting the extra .5 point is more than enough value for me.

Pick: NY Jets +3.5
CaveKid’s Pick – New England Patriots -3.5,
“The Patriots because Tom Brady has been waiting for this game and is ready to beat the Jets.”

NFL Week 13 Picks – Part I

Last Sunday was “family day” for Caveman. What did we do? Come on people, we might be a primitive family, but we do what every family does on a Sunday – watch football.

So, I am watching the early NFL games with CaveKid #1, who though is staring at the screen as if she knows what is going on, she clearly does not. Sure, she gets they basic concepts like how to score a touchdown and how many points you get for a field goal, but lacks in depth knowledge of the game. So that means for most part she reacts only to my reactions. If I am smiling and jovial after a play, she sagaciously figures that I liked that play and vice-versa. After securing that knowledge, she can now react to my reactions with groans, moderate excitement or pre-emptive bashing.

I was most interested in watching the Green Bay/Atlanta game among the early slate for the reason that I have Aaron Rodgers in my fantasy league as well as the Packers were a SuperContest pick for me, where if you haven’t noticed I am currently circling the drain. Once CaveKid has figured out my Packer bias, it didn’t take her long to begin with a barrage of random comments that essentially are attempts to read my feeling about the current game status and blurt it out as if she was Waylon Flowers’ Madame.

As it turns out, my jubilation over the Packers tying the game is short lived when the Packers special teams threw a wet blanket on the game by allowing a long return, topped off with a personal foul. Atlanta needs to move the ball a mere 10 yards to be in game winning field goal range. The first play the Packers leave Roddy White un-covered on a drag route and pick up close to the yardage needed, the end is near and inevitable, which leads to this exchange between CaveKid and me:

Me (speaking to the TV) and irrational: That’s what Mike McCarthy does best, findsa way to lose, whether it’s his trademark terrible play calling or lack of attention to detail in a critical area he never fails to deliver.

CaveKid: The Packers just suck!

Me, now philosophical: They don’t, though. They have a great quarterback, maybe the best in the league and they have great play makers on offense. It is really hard to stop this team with their weapons. And on defense they’re solid and they make a ton of big plays. This is the team I picked to go to the Super Bowl this year.

CaveKid: Ya, that’s true; they’re really good.

Me: Really? Outside of what I just told you, what do you know about football or the Packers?

CaveKid: I know the team you want to win is about to lose.

I give her “the look”, you know “the look” the same look Alan Stanwyck would give the airplane mechanics when they questioned him about burning too much fuel flying to Utah. I watch the Falcons kick the game winning field (although my heart skipped a beat as I watched Greg Jennings run through four Falcons on the last play. For a second I had visions of him casually running through the entire team like Brian “Smash” Williams did when he led the Dillon Panthers to the Texas state title. My feeling was if he faked the pitch he might have been able to put himself in a “one man to beat” position and then it would have gotten interesting).

I quickly switch over to watch the end of Steelers/Bills game, where the Steelers in the middle of crapping their pants, you know like the times where you afraid to get off the pot because you know there is more to come. CaveKid asks, “Who do you want to win?” I tell her, “The Steelers.” That is followed shortly by her telling me that “The Steelers just suck.” Yea, I know they’ve blown a 13 point lead, have virtually no chance of covering the 6.5 point spread and to make matters worse, I have the Steelers defense in fantasy and they’re giving up chunks (like Norte Dame stadium turf chunks) of yardage to the Bills. And for some reason they cannot sack Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ugh!

After the Steelers win on a field goal in overtime, CaveKid picks up on disappointment, even though the team I was rooting for won (I told you she was sharp), “The Steelers won, why are you mad?” I tell her, “Well, they had to win by seven points.” “Why?” she asks. I explain “That’s the point spread, which is set to make teams that are not equal, equal. Then a Sports Investor, like me, speculates on which team is the best pick. If that team wins by more than the point spread or loses by less than the point spread, then they win. That is called covering the spread. You’re one of my four readers of my weekly picks column, haven’t you picked up the concept?” “Not really, I just like the Survivor references. But based on what I have heard, it seems like you suck at picking games!” she tells me. Hello, Ice Queen, model year 2020.

Fast forward to the end of the late games, as I am bemoaning the garbage touchdown the Ravens allow to the Bucs and the fact that the Eagles failed to show for their game against the Bears. That leads to this exchange:

CaveKid – “Let me guess the Baltimore, what’s their nickname?”

Me – “Ravens”

CaveKid – “The Ravens won but didn’t win by enough to make the point spread?”

Me – “Wow, you’re a quick one; yea that is right and to make matters worse – they blew the spread at the end of the game. And it’s called covering, COVERING THE SPREAD, not MAKING THE SPREAD.”

CaveKid – “Hey, don’t get mad at me because you suck at picking these games!”

Me – “I don’t suck at it, I have just been unlucky, I have had teams win by a 1 point when they were favored by 2…

CaveKid – “Hey, whatever, I am just telling what I think based what I have seen today!”

Me – “You think you could do better?”

CaveKid – “I think Marshall {CaveDog} could do better.”

Oh, it is so on!

Me – “Tell you what – back it up. You v. Me over the last five weeks of the NFL season. You win, I will pick up your chore list for two months. I win and you treat the family to dinner on your nicklel.”

CaveKid – “Two free months here I come!”

Now it’s not a secret that I have been especially atrocious over the last four weeks (22-36-1 overall, 7-13 SuperContest), but this is a matter of personal pride and, frankly, peacefulness in my domain. To spice up the competition I added a third member to the competition, “G-Dub” or “Mr. Random”, yep that’s right, the secret to John Anthony’s Super Bowl pick in Two for the Money – the US quarter. Adding George Washington to mix will mean that the winner between the two of us will have to beat G-Dub or the bet will be considered a push.

For me it’s simple, I need to get back to the basics, a la Rocky in Rocky IV, you know
grow a man’s man beard, find random items laying around the yard to help me train to fight a machine who happens to be twice my size and isolating myself from all distractions. Done, done and done!

Over the next five weeks, I will throw down a minimum of 50 overall wins and 18 in the SuperContest at a minimum. Let’s see CaveKid, with her “I hate Vikings, but think Cowboys are cute” logic top that.

If I pull it off, I will finish a very respectable 138-112-6 (.551) and with 47 points in the SuperContest (out of the money, but only 7 points off last year’s winner).

Let’s get it on!

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 88-82-6 (.517) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 28-30-2 (Tied for 231^st) (1-4 last week)

 

Houston @ Philadelphia (-8.0) – The NFL 2010 tells us that we should hammer teams coming off their worst performance of the year playing a team coming off their best performance of the year on a short week. Yep, that’s the NFL in 2010 for ya.

I have a plethora of other reasons to back the Eagles – there is no way the Texans can win this game, so the only play in this game to hope for a close loss or a backdoor cover and that clearly violates the ancient proverb “Thou shall not take a team unless thou believest said team can secure victory”; Houston has been beaten worse than Cortland Figgegan by the NFC East this season; Michael Vick is not Rusty Smith; DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are not the Randy Moss and Nate Washington; Andy Reid blew up at the Eagles which will focus the players, if for nothing else than they don’t want blood on their hands if the anger were to cause Reid to drop with a heart attack; and everyone will be watching Lebron’s return to Cleveland to see if some crazy, Travis Bickle-esque, Cavs fan goes bonkers, therefore the NFL will have no incentive to keep this game close, thus allowing the Eagles to open it up on the Texans.

Pick: Philadelphia -8.0

LHSC – Philadelphia -8.0

 

CaveKid’s Pick – Philadelphia -8.0, “The Eagles have not lost back-to-back games this season and I don’t expect them to start this week.”

 

So, one of the things I am looking forward to, besides the tattoo generation in their 60s, is the meltdown CaveKid will have when she picks a team that wins but fails to cover the spread, especially if it is a late backdoor cover. I am not entirely sure that she understands the point spread, which is especially bad news for me if I lose this contest.

 

 

NFL Week 12 Picks – Thanksgiving Day Games

Happy Thanksgiving to all! I give thanks today to the odds-makers, who have graciously set the Thanksgiving Day lines so that I can get off to a 3-0 start in week 12.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

Season Totals: 81-73-6 (.521) (9-7 last week)

LHSC: 27-26-2 (Tied for 167^th) (2-3 last week)

New England (-6.5) @ Detroit – Flash back to three weeks ago when the Patriots played the Browns. Remember the Pats were due for a loss and what happened? They lost. We have three things working against the Pats in this game – 1. This is a sandwich game – the game between two big games – for the Pats, who played the Colts last week and have the Jets next week; 2. Detroit is a much better team than their record indicates and they have enough of a presence in the middle to make Brady uncomfortable; and 3. This is an inter-conference road game and you know what that means.

Pick: Detroit +6.5

New Orleans (-3.5) @ Dallas – OK, I realize that the Cowboys are playing better but let’s take a close look at their last two wins – against the Giants the Cowboys had a 100 yard interception return for a touchdown, 14 point turn-around, 14 point final score; then last week against the Lions, the Cowboys had a fluke 97-yard punt return; a blown call on Suh (I guess last week was screw anyone from Nebraska week) that led to a touchdown and they got a 29 yard touchdown run by Jon Kitna (hmm, it’s interesting that Jason Garrett has all of a sudden found a pretty impressive rhythm with his offensive play calling). Translation – all the love Dallas is receiving right now is a joke.

Pick: New Orleans -3.5

Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-9.0) – Before the year, I go through the NFL schedule and circle games that have a special circumstance, like this game – last year the Jets knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs, which will generally mean that the losing team will want to avenge their loss (example, last year the Panthers, a bad, bad team, came down to UOP stadium and waxed the Cardinals, a decent team). So, I was all set to ride the Bengals in this game until the following happened – the Bengals gave up 35 straight points in a home loss to the Bills; and Ocho-Uno trashed talked Revis, which means they got the Jets attention away from the 11 in between the matchup with the Pats. The Bengals have no balls and the Jets will make a statement!

Pick: NY Jets -9.0

This week: 1-2

Remaining week 12 picks:
SuperContest Picks

Green Bay +2.5 over Atlanta
Baltimore -7.5 over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia -3.0 over Chicago
Minnesota +2.0 over Washington
Oakland -3.0 over Miami

The rest:

Carolina +10.0 over Cleveland
Pittsburgh -6.5 over Buffalo
Tennessee +7.0 over Houston
NY Giants -7.0 over Jacksonville
Devner -4.0 over St. Louis
Kansas City -1.5 over Seattle
San Diego +3.0 over Indianapolis
San Francisco PK over Arizona