NFL 2009 – Week 6 Picks

The Caveman is on vacation exploring new technologies like the microwave and remote control, but he still managed to put together a quick version of the week 6 picks.

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Games I love:

Houston +5 (Cincinnati) – This will be a huge letdown week for the Bengals this week.

Jacksonville -9 (St. Louis) – It is always a gamble laying big points with the Jags, but have you seen the Rams?

Baltimore +3 (Minnesota) – Let’s see how grandpa Favre can handle the Ravens defense.

Kansas City +6.5 (Washington) – I like the Chiefs as an outright winner this week.

Philadelphia -14 (Oakland) – Have you seen the Raiders?

Seattle -3 (Arizona) – Seattle re-emerged as a contender in the division last weekend. This weekend they can put themselves in control of the division. Yea, I am considering the 49ers a pretender.

NY Jets -10 (Buffalo) – I would like to rewind to the first game of the year and give the Bills the win over the Patriots, does that change this team? I actually thought this was a decent team.

The rest:

Green Bay -13.5 (Detroit) – The Lions are scrappy, but without Megatron they don’t have the firepower.

New Orleans -3 (NY Giants) – This game is probably a field goal either way, I will take the home team Saints, because I am guessing Eli’s foot hasn’t gotten any better considering the number of “Giants 10″ dolls that have been getting stuck in the foot with a needle this past week.

Cleveland +14 (Pittsburgh) – I literally just typed this (removing the backspaces) “Pitts Clevelan Pittsburgh -1 Cleveland +14″. Yea, I have no clue here.

Tampa Bay +3 (Carolina) – Is Carolina any good? No, they shouldn’t be giving any team points on the road.

New England -9.5 (Tennessee) – It’s one thing if Vince Young is going to get the start, but to continue to bring him off the bench is a recipe for disaster. The backup quarterback is never prepared to play like the starter.

Chicago +3.5 (Atlanta) – The Falcon bandwagon is over flowing this week, but closer inspection reveals that the 49ers are a tailor made matchup for Atlanta. Chicago not so much.

San Diego -3.5 (Denver) – Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the Broncos went 16-0? I started to come around on them this week, which almost certainly means they will get crushed.

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-7

2009 Record: 40-36

Last Week: $-1,650

Bank: $7,615 ($-2,385)

Bets:

Kansas City and Houston to win – $100 each to win $200 each

Kansas City and Houston 2-team parlay to win – $50 to win $400

Seattle -3, Baltimore +3, Kansas City +6.5, Houston +5 – $440 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Seattle -3, Baltimore +3, Kansas City +6.5, Houston +5 – $200 each (6 total)

Total Risked: $3210

 

NFL 2009 – Week 5 Picks

I am still befuddled at this whole Brett Favre with the Vikings thing. From what I can gather after talking to several Packer fans and listening to the media coverage, most Packer fans are “ok” seeing Favre in Viking purple.

This is most perplexing to me, since the closest I could come to a personal comparison is Roger Clemens (ALERT: Crazed tangent rant ahead). Being a huge Red Sox fan, Raj was immediately one of my favorite players with the first pitch he threw for the Sox in 1984. From 1986 through 1992, Roger collect three Cy Young awards, lead the league in ERA four times, won 17 plus games in every season and won one league MVP (rarely given to a pitcher).

Beginning in 1993, Roger began to break down. He was injured for parts of the next three seasons and most of this was blamed on his off-season work ethic. In short, Roger had grown weary of the negativity surrounding the Red Sox and the team’s poor front office. His performance suffered over the next four years, so much so that the front office decided against a new contract in 1997 and let him walk gambling that he was in the “twilight” of his career. While as we now know, he was in the twilight, but he decided to work out extra hard (aka use roids) that off-season.

Clemens spent two seasons dominating baseball with Toronto Blue Jays before forcing a trade to the, gulp, Yankees. It was bad enough seeing the “I found the fountain of youth” Roger in Toronto, enduring him his return to Fenway in 1997 in which after striking out his 16^th Red Sox of the game, he walked off the field glaring up to the management box where former Sox GM Dan Duquette was sitting but now Sox fans had to see “one of our own” suiting up in pinstripes. The minute Clemens through his first pitch for the Yankees, he was dead to me! He was dead to the majority of Red Sox fans, if not all and at that moment he became soul-less, a man without a team – Blue Jay fan doesn’t remember him and Yankee fan used him, but never embraced him.

Doesn’t that sound vaguely familiar to Favre? He has allowed his discontent with Packer management cloud his decision making process and do the unthinkable. There are more than a few individuals who believe that Favre setup this entire scenario where he would ultimately play with the Vikings. That might be a bit of the stretch, but what’s the old saying “hell hath no fury like an athlete scorned” or something like that.

Yet Packer fan not only seems fine with him playing in Minnesota, but a few Cheeseheads actually seem to be rooting for him. I don’t get it! The minute he donned the purple #4 jersey, he would have been dead to me. I would have burned every bit Favre memorabilia I owned, urinated on the ashes and then flushed them down the toilet.

Tragically, this scenario speaks volumes about the current state of the NFL and the flaws in the system. Players come and go like there are working a contract job. Fans are often left having to choose between a player and their team.

Still, however, the Packers allowed Favre to do his annual off-season waffling for at least two seasons while they received no return on their first-round investment of Aaron Rodgers. When they pressed Favre for a firm decision in March of 2008, he told them he was retiring and they moved on without him. Had Brett decided he still wanted to play football, I have no doubts the Packers would have welcomed him back as their starting quarterback.

The bottom line – I believe the Packers front office was more than fair with Favre and Favre has tainted his time with the Packers with his actions over the last two year. And Packer fan should wish that, as Ray Finkel’s (of Ace Ventura, Pet Detective fame) mother put it, “Brett Favre should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell…”.

The story for me last week was not the mediocre 8-6 record, but the fact I hit all three bets and collected a nice hefty $3,360. As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9) – It has been my belief that the Bengals are starting to get respect and that the odds-makers realize that this Bengals team is good. This line is an indication the strength of this Ravens team. Baltimore’s play in New England made me a huge believer, in spite of the fact that I would like to tear a hole in John Harbuagh’s face, due to the fact that Ray Rice doesn’t get any goal-line action.

Pick: Baltimore 27 Cincinnati 17

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6) – Can I punt here? Someone aptly described this game as the “depressed bowl”. These two teams have combined for more heartbreak than the Spears siblings.

Pick: Cleveland 27 Buffalo 24

Washington @ Carolina (-4) – Ugh, if you haven’t been to church since September 6^th, this is the week to reacquaint yourself. Trust me you aren’t missing a thing with these early games this week.

Can Carolina please get their running game going? I need J. Stewart to pile up some fantasy stats today.

Pick: Carolina 16 Washington 6

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit – Nice year for Detroit, aye! They might have felt the economy worse than any other city in the US and then the Tigers fall off the map in the last week of the season. Then they have to endure the Lions and to make matters worse, the Red Wings are in last place. “Buffalo and Cleveland, we have a new member today, please give a warm welcome to Detroit.”

Pick: Pittsburgh 30 Detroit 17

Dallas (-8) @ Kansas City – And you thought I was joking about the early games. . . Ok, so if you’re not a church gore, this is your weekend to prove to your significant other that you’re not all about football, hang that picture, vacuum or do some yard work. Trust me that will buy Sundays of being planted in the same spot for 10+ hours until Thanksgiving.

Why is this Cowboy team favored by 8 points on the road to anyone?

Pick: Dallas 21 Kansas City 17

Oakland @ NY Giants (-15.5) – I joked this week that brutal winds in the Meadowlands might actually improve Jamarcus Russell’s accuracy.

Of all these early game huge spreads – this one smells. And this could be the one mammoth upset can cleans out an entire survivor pool.

Pick: NY Giants 23 Oakland 20

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-14.5) – I would love to see the DirecTV commercials with Eli and Peyton Manning pumping week 5 of the 2009 season.

Eli – “You could’ve flipped over to see the Eagles go up 41-7, but you couldn’t because you have cable and you only get one game.”

Peyton – “You’re bored with the Giants 6-3 tussle with the Raiders. Well, if you had DirecTV you could watch Tony Romo under achieve against the Chiefs or Minnesota suffer the dreaded Monday night hangover but still win by 30 against the Rams.”

Pick: Philadelphia 34 Tampa Bay 14

Minnesota (-10.5) @ St. Louis – This is the most absurd line of the week! But the odds-makers are using the “Monday night emotional win, short week, on the road, sandwich game” approach. So, all of that makes sense – the Vikings spent a lot of emotion and energy beating the Packers, it is a short week, they have to travel and they play Baltimore next week.

But it’s the Rams. The Rams have a glorified special teamer starting at middle linebacker for them, who is best known because of his B-List celebrity dad. In fact when I watched this guy in college, his best move was jumping on the pile 10 yards down the field, to which the announcers would scream his name as though he were Dick Butkus.

The moral of the story – Adrian Peterson only needs to be about 25% today to score three times and lead the Vkings to a blow out win.

Pick: Minnesota 28 St. Louis 10

Atlanta @ San Francisco (-2.5) – I told myself that I would stop analyzing the lines in a, mostly, feebly attempt to get in head of the odds-maker, but I cannot help myself. Anytime a line is -2.5 it is like a free invitation to bet on the home team. After all, 2.5 is pretty much “pick the winner”, right. And we know how easy it is to pick the winner of each NFL game.

So, against my better judgment, I am making this pick solely on the fact that taking the 49ers is too easy. There might be a little sprinkle of “I hate the Niners” mixed in here as well. I’ll never learn. . .

Pick: Atlanta 23 San Francisco 17

Houston @ Arizona (-5.5) – This is a very important game for me personally, since it will decide where I spend four Sunday afternoons in the next two months.

What I love about the NFL most – it is as predictable as a cat? There should be 60+ points scored in this game, right? Think about the talent on offense – three of the 10 best receivers in the NFL, two more receivers that crack the top thirty, two of the best quarterbacks, one above average running back and ne very good tight end. Mix in two terrible defenses and we will have ourselves an old fashioned AFL shootout. No less than 10 players will be started and counted on heavily in all fantasy leagues today.

Wrong! I am willing to bet that both coaches are thinking they don’t want to get into a shootout, so they will pull the reins in on their offenses and shorten the game.

If that happens and the Cardinals lose, you mark down 10-11-2009 as the beginning of the end for Ken Whisenhunt as Cardinals coach. Now, he isn’t going to get fired this year but a loss today in game where the offense fails to show, again, will start turning fans against him. Once the fans turn in Phoenix, they find other things to do on Sundays than head over to the gang-infested Westcyyyde. That translates to loss of revenue for the money-grubbing Bidwells, which fuels any and all football decisions they make.

Pick: Houston 13 Arizona 10

New England (-3) @ Denver – The odds-makers still aren’t a believer in the Broncos, huh? I have exhibit A for you – the Broncos back seven got away with murder against the Cowboys last week. I counted at least five egregious illegal contact penalties that went un-called. Until the refs start calling those penalties the Broncos defense will look un-beatable.

Pick: Denver 23 New England 20

Jacksonville @ Seattle (-1) – Matt Hasselbeck is back in the Seahawks lineup and, provided he can make it through the entire game, I expect them to look like the team I picked to win the NFC West.

Pick: Seattle 31 Jacksonville 24

Indianapolis (-4) @ Tennessee – This is the last week I allow Tennessee to burn me. I am going with the third consecutive “must win game” for the Titans. No really, this time I am serious, it is a must win situation for the Titans.

Pick: Tennessee 28 Indianapolis 25

NY Jets (-2) @ Miami – This should be fun to watch, kind of like watching grass grow. Miami has to be able to run the ball to win, I highly doubt they will be able to against the Jets.

Pick: NY Jets 16 Miami 10

Season Results:

Last Week: 8-6

2009 Record: 33-29

Last Week: $3,360

Bank: $9,265 ($-735)

Bets:

Houston +5.5, Seattle -1, Carolina -4 – $550 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Houston +5.5, Seattle -1, Carolina -4 – $300 each

3-team parlay – Houston +5.5, Seattle -1, Carolina -4 – $150

Total Risked: $2700

NFL 2009 – Week 4 Picks

Flashback to last Sunday morning and there is a knock at my door. I open the door and find an attractive package sitting on my welcome mat. I open the package to find a felt bag and a cell phone. The cell phone had a sticky note attached to it that reads “Call Me…” The felt bag has “Teeth” embroidered on the front.

Man on other end (MOOE) – “You got my package?”

Me – “Yes, thanks. But what I don’t understand the meaning of the bag.”

Mooe – “I am going to knock your teeth out today so I thought it would be a nice gesture to give you place to keep them”

Me – “Who is this?

Mooe – “Your worst nightmare”. Click!

 

Yep, I spent a considerable amount of time in dental reconstruction surgery this week after a 5-11 beating at the hands of old Mr. Bookie, included was a devastating $1,990 “funny money” loss.

 

This week is “back to the basics” with emphasis on the following three simple rules:

 

1. What I know trumps any games the odds-makers appear to be playing
2. Never take an underdog unless you think they can win outright
3. Look at the quarterback. Translation don’t back bad quarterbacks in any circumstance

 

Note: Lines are courtesy of covers.com and I will be using the Hard Rock casino lines.

Detroit @ Chicago (-10) – Hmm, Matthew Stafford on the road, in a hostile place, against an above average defense, I think I will take “da Bears”. I expect the Lions to fight hard in this game, but honestly they have no chance to win, so my best hope on the Lions would be for a backdoor cover which is a violation of rule #2.

Pick: Chicago 31 Detroit 13

Cincinnati (-6) @ Cleveland – My Bengals playoff pick is looking quite nice right about now, however, this is a game that the Bengals have to win in order to truly be a contender. Isn’t that right? I mean if they’re really a playoff team, they won’t lose a game to a miserable team like the Browns.

How about those Browns? They made a switch at quarterback this week, but what they really need is a switch at head coach, Mangini is horrible! This game will be closer than anticipated for two reasons – 1. The Bengals will be hungover from the huge win over Pittsburgh and 2. It’s a rival opponent for the Browns which will motivate them in spite of Mangini.

Pick: Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 17

Oakland @ Houston (-8) – Man, I hate it when two bad teams play and the spread is over a touchdown. Asking a good team to cover a heavy spread is tough enough, but it is near impossible with a lousy team. Add to it that this game appears to be tailor made for the Raiders – a defense that cannot stop the run and an offense that cannot run the ball. But rule #3 tells me to look at the quarterback, while I’m a lookin and I’m not likin.

The mere mention of Jamarcus make me wonder how bad Jeff Garcia must feel that he couldn’t beat out Jamarcus, I mean that’s like losing a fencing match to a guy with no arms. Garcia mentioned that the Raiders didn’t seem committed to winning, ya think, Jeff? The decision to steadfastly back Jamarcus despite his struggles gets more baffling by the minute.

I wish, instead of picking this game, I could bet on things like – Russell will throw at least one pass that will prompt the announcers to comment “Not sure who was the intended receiver, but the closest person to the ball was the hot dog vendor in section 102″

Pick: Houston 27 Oakland 10

Seattle @ Indianapolis (-10) – This line seems a bit low, but maybe the odds-makers know that it doesn’t take a rocket scientist coach (Mora is clearly not that) to know that you can gash the Colts between the tackles for big gains via the run. Yah, you know, like the Jags and Dolphins did to them in the first two weeks of the season but somehow the Cardinals failed to either pick up on film or simply failed to take advantage of on the field.

Pick: Indianapolis 31 Seattle 27

Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville – The Titans are in a must-win situation and are not accustomed to mediocrity. The Jags are mediocrity defined.

Pick: Tennessee 24 Jacksonville 16

NY Giants (-8) @ Kansas City – Doesn’t seem like the Giants have played the worst schedule possible so far this year? I got my crack research team on this and sure enough the Giants have played the Redskins, Buccaneers and now the Chiefs. They did beat the Cowboys in the billion dollar palace, but still how can a team like the Giants get that kind of schedule to open the year. But wait it gets better, next week they play Oakland. Hello, 5-0!

Pick: NY Giants 28 Kansas City 13

Baltimore @ New England (-2) – Have I mentioned how PO’d I am by this Willis McGahee thing? For those who don’t follow fantasy football, Willis McGahee couldn’t get out of John Harbaugh’s doghouse last year. And coming into this season everything pointed to Ray Rice being the main guy in Baltimore. However, through three weeks Willis has scored six touchdowns. Once again, I put my crack research team to work to see how many players in NFL history had scored 6 or more TDs in the first three games of the season. Willis is the 30^th player in NFL history to record such a feat. Amazing for a guy left for dead by the side of the road last season. I hate fantasy football. But I love the Pats in this game.

Pick: New England 26 Baltimore 20

Tampa Bay @ Washington (-7.5) – Ugh, another game involving two terrible teams and a spread over a touchdown. I think I have to go with the Skins, since betting on career backup Josh Johnson would be like having a terrible stomach ache and against your better judgment heading out to a crowded mall. Sure enough your stomach doesn’t cooperate, leaving you with T-1 minute until, ah, well, blast off. You scurry to the closest bathroom, barely making into the stall in time. A smile creeps across your face as you “unload” and not just because of the “act” but because of the way you tempted and defeated fate. The smile soon turns to a look of disbelief, as you spot not one, but two empty spools of toilet paper. That’s about how you will feel in the second quarter watching Johnson play quarterback for a team you bet on.

Pick: Washington 30 Tampa Bay 10

Buffalo @ Miami (PK) – Wow, the Bills really let me down last week, however, New Orleans might simply be that good. The Dolphins are one loss away from packing it in for the season and enjoying everything that South Florida has to offer. Look out South Beach!

Pick: Buffalo 23 Miami 20

NY Jets @ New Orleans (-7) – Art first glance this spread seemed way too high. I mean Jets are all but guaranteed to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and we all know the AFC is the strongest conference. Then I watched the Jets/Titans replay on DirecTV ShortCuts (the 30 minute version of the every Sunday Ticket game; the greatest thing about TV since the remote), in which the Titans literally handed the Jets the game. Then I started thinking about the Pats missing Welker in the game against the Jets. Then I thought about how the Jets surprised Houston with a completely new defensive scheme. And I realized the Jets really are not that good. And Sanchez is a rookie, who I still think will be a huge bust, making his first start in a hostile environment.

Pick: New Orleans 37 NY Jets 17

Dallas (-3) @ Denver – Words cannot adequately describe how bad I want the Cowboys to beat the Broncos. We have seen this before from Denver, in fact no team records more fluke wins in September than the Broncos. Here is a short list in the last three years:

• Cincinnati 2009 Week 1
• San Diego 2008 Week 2
• New Orleans 2008 Week 3
• Buffalo 2007 Week 1
• Oakland 2007 Week 2

You know the common trend about the last three seasons for the Donkeys – they failed to make the playoffs.

But you know what maybe I am looking at this all wrong. Maybe I should be rooting for the Broncos. Think about the money that can be made betting against the Orton, McDaniels and Nolan (defensive coordinator). That is like the holy trinity of playoff suckage, the perfect storm of “no effing chance” in the post-season. I am warming up to the idea, plus what’s better than getting the Donk fans all excited only to watch them crap their pants when it counts. Nothing beats that!

Pick: Denver 21 Dallas 20

St. Louis @ San Francisco (-9) – So, I guess I have to admit the 49ers are for real, but how long before the NFL steps in and starts turning the officials against them? Think about this team, they won a game against the Cardinals where they barely put up 200 yards, then they went conservative last week and it ultimately got them beat. They do nothing on offense unless forced to and they start bleeding the clock as early as the first quarter. The big reason they haven’t pressed to get Crabtree isn’t because they don’t want to cough up a few extra million for a playmaker, it’s because they know they won’t use his play making ability so why pay for it. Like getting seat warmers for your car in Arizona!

This is the most boring, unimaginative team in the NFL and I have to be honest even 49er fans aren’t 100% bought into to this team’s style of play. Any 49ers success will set the league back 50 years.

The nice thing about the 49er style, it’s conducive to underdogs covering the spread and it keeps lesser teams in the game. That’s all the Rams need, as the Kyle Boller era ushers out the Marc Bulger debacle.

Pick: St. Louis 20 San Francisco 17

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) – This is the third meeting in last 12 games. Interestingly enough the Steelers were also favored by 6.5 in the 2008 divisional playoff round, when they covered rather easily. This is a must-win for Pittsburgh and I simply cannot take San Diego in a big road game with Norv Turner running the show. Norv leaves too many things to chance.

Pick: Pittsburgh 21 San Diego 13

Green Bay @ Minnesota (-3.5) – I took the Packers to win NFC North and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl because I felt they had extra motivation to win both games against the Vikings once Favre signed with Minnesota. I admit I am wavering a bit, but I will not switch from the Packers. And there is a comforting feeling betting against the Vikings after watching the pre-game warm-ups and catching a close-up of Brad Childress picking corn out of his teeth.

Pick: Green Bay 31 Minnesota 21

Season Results:

Last Week: 5-11

2009 Record: 25-23

Last Week: $-1,990

Bank: $5,905 ($-4,095)

Bets:

New England -2.5, New Orleans -7 and Chicago -10 – $440 each

New England -2.5, New Orleans -7 and Chicago -10 – Two team parlay round robin $200 each

New England -2.5, New Orleans -7 and Chicago -10 – Three team parlay for $100

Total Risked: $2020

NFL 2009 – Week 2 Picks

Last week was “obscure player touchdown week”. What will week two in the 2009 NFL season bring us? Given the potential piss poor weather conditions forecasted in half of the games, we might see more defensive touchdowns/field goals than touchdowns. You have to love the NFL!

I got off to a nice start last week, going 10-6; however, I lost $20 which doesn’t help my quest for 50K.

Note: Lines are courtesy of covers.com and I will be using the Hard Rock casino lines.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-6.5) – Maybe it’s a sign of the times, but I can’t believe how little one can get for 20 million dollars these days. Take the Carolina Panthers, they spent 20 million this off-season on Jake Delhomme. And for their money, Jake produced a 14.7 quarterback rating in the Panthers opening week loss to the Eagles. 14.7! Now that would be a nice average for the starting point guard for UNC, but for a starting NFL quarterback, uh, well, that’s not good.

Pick: Atlanta 27 Carolina 17

Houston @ Tennessee (-6.5) – Strange line, how is this not at least a touchdown? I still don’t know if the Jets are good or the Texans are that bad. At the end of the day the Titans have a great pass rush, which was on display last week, however, they couldn’t take “El Gigante” to the ground. They won’t have that problem with “La Wimp” (Schuab).

Pick: Tennessee 23 Houston 10

Cincinnati @ Green Bay (-9) – The big question – can the Bengals bounce back after their crushing “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” loss to the Broncos, which was by the worse loss of the weekend, for a number of reasons – 1. The game was at home; 2. Against an inferior team; 3. They dominated the game but somehow found a way put up zero points.

The Packers did not look good last week, therefore this game will be close but the Bengals have lost for as long they don’t know how to win.

Pick: Green Bay 20 Cincinnati 14

Minnesota @ Detroit (-10) – I have to play against Adrian Peterson in one fantasy league this week. I am hoping the Lions hold him to 180 and 3TDs. AP is ridiculous, almost to the point that fantasy leagues need to eliminate him, simply because it is not fair that one team gets AP, simple because they draw the number one pick. Think about it without AP, who goes number one without AP? Some drafts maybe it’s MJD , others it’s probably Michael Turner and maybe even Forte would get some love.

So how does this get implemented? It’s simple, before the draft order is set each franchise gets to pick a single player to “eliminate” from the draft. The player with the most votes is removed from the league.

Pick: Minnesota 31 Detroit 16

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3) – My friend is a huge Raiders fan and he was obviously disappointing with the loss to the Chargers last week, but after the game he sent me this message, “That sucks, we were that close to being 3-0, but I will take 2-1.” I agreed that the Raiders would take care of business against the Chiefs and the Broncos. Then I see the line – Chiefs -3. Seems like a great time to use deductive reasoning to come up with this pick:

1. Odds-Makers don’t lose money
2. The Raiders are drawing heavy support from the wagering community
3. The Chiefs will cover

I don’t have many rules but one of them is – “don’t bet on a quarterback who couldn’t hit the ocean from the beach.” Yep, JaMarcus Russell falls into the category.

Pick: Kansas City 23 Oakland 14

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Chicago – Can someone please tackle “El Gigante”? I liken Roethlisberger’s escapes to a new born baby escaping from a proud parent. That would never happen, yet somehow Big Ben gets away constantly.

And for goodness sake, please stop falling for that foolish pump fake. Against the Titans, last week, Ben successfully pumped faked four times on a single play. You know how you stop those pump fakes? Drive Big Ben to the ground through the sternum. I have to believe Bears coach Lovie Smith made this a priority this week.

Pick: Chicago 20 Pittsburgh 17

Seattle @ San Francisco (-1.5) – I want to see how the 49ers rebound after they won the Super Bowl last week. Wait, you mean they didn’t win the Super Bowl last week? Hmm, I could swear they did, based on the yapping and the celebrating from 49er fans after “duck farting” out a win against the Cardinals last week.

The ‘Hawks are back

Pick: Seattle 24 San Francisco 21

Cleveland @ Denver (-3) – It seems like good fortune follows the Broncos, especially early in the season (remember the Chargers game in week two last week). Of course, good fortune can only last so long, that’s when the Broncos have to rely on coaching (poor) and talent (limited) to win games. But since we’re still in week two. . .

Pick: Denver 16 Cleveland 10

The “Angle” Plays:

St. Louis @ Washington (-10) – Spagnuolo “knows with Skins” angle.

Pick: Washington 20 St. Louis 14

New Orleans (-1.5) @ Philadelphia – “The head coach will be forced to coach” angle. Yes, that’s right “Big Red” will be forced to coach, now that is a stretch given the fact that he is one of the more over-rated coaches ever.

Pick: Philadelphia 24 New Orleans 13

New England (-3.0) @ New York Jets – “Don’t tug on Superman’s cape” angle. Rex Ryan opened his mouth in the off-season, but in reality he didn’t say anything that alarming. However, Kerry Rhodes, gave the Pats all the incentive with his “.. Embarrass them…” comment.

Pick: New England 31 NY Jets 23

Arizona @ Jacksonville (-3) – The “perfect storm of a team needing win playing a team that consistently under achieves at home” angle

Pick: Arizona 31 Jacksonville 21

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (-4) – The “sure it was a bad loss, but confidence was gained” angle trumps the “TO is about implode and force everyone on the offense to be very un-comfortable”.

Pick: Buffalo 26 Tampa Bay 13

Baltimore @ San Diego (-2.5) – The “most absurd line of the week” angle.

Pick: Baltimore 30 San Diego 17

New York Giants @ Dallas (-3) – What happens if a quarterback throws a pass that hits the jumbo-jumbotron? Is it a do over? Let’s say Romo is back to pass and it about to get sacked, what would stop him throwing the ball off the scoreboard? Its genius – it saves a down or a potential big loss.

Anyway, no way the Cowboys lose the opener of the mega-billion dollar stadium.

Pick: Dallas 31 NY Giants 21

Indianapolis (-3) @ Miami – Bottom line, the Dolphins aren’t very good. And Tony Sparano looks like Luigi from Mario and Luigi fame. And Mario is the intellect of the two.

Pick: Indianapolis 28 Miami 17

Bets:

Chicago +3, Tennessee -6.5 and Baltimore +3 all $330 to win $300

Chicago +3, Tennessee -6.5 and Baltimore +3 in a Two-Team Round Robin at $100 each (Risked: $300 Win:$780)

Chicago +3, Tennessee -6.5 and Baltimore +3 Three Team Parlay at $100 (Win: $600)

 

Total Risked: $1,390

Season Results:

Last Week – 10-6

Season – 10-6

 

Bets:

Detroit/New Orleans over 50 ($220 to win $200) – Win

2-Team Parlay, Detroit +13.5 and Det/NO over 50 ($100 to win $260) – Loss

San Francisco +5.5 ($165 to win $150) – Win

Green Bay to win by 19+ points ($50 to $600) – Loss

 

Bank: $7,565 ($-2,435)

2009 NFL Week 1 Picks Part II

The NFL season hasn’t started until you’ve been destroyed by the “biggest no brainer” of the season. The good news – every game has the potential to be the “game of the year”.

The first two weeks in the NFL the odds-makers are learning just like the wise-guys, so there can be big opportunities to capitalize. And I will capitalize today in a big way. First off, here are some of my favorite season-long prop bets:

Cincinnati: Over 6.5 wins, BET $340 to win $200

Green Bay: Over 9.0 wins, BET $360 to win $300

Seattle: Over 7.5 wins, BET $380 to win $200

Dallas: Over 9.0 wins, BET $375 to win $300

Arizona: Under 8.5 wins, BET $375 to win $300

 

Seattle to win the NFC West; BET $200 to win $320

Dallas to win the NFC East; BET $200 to win $560

 

Green Bay to win the NFC Championship; BET $50 to win $400

Green Bay to win the Super Bowl; BET $50 to win $900

 

Aaron Rodgers to win 2009 NFL MVP; BET $50 to win $1400

And I dug up these “fantasy props”:

Marques Colston -2 TDs over Dewayne Bowe; BET $105 to win $100

Marion Barber +6.5 TDs over Adrian Peterson; BET $135 to win $100

 

Note: Lines are courtesy of covers.com and I will be using the Hard Rock casino lines.

Miami @ Atlanta (-4) – This is a great matchup of teams that over-achieved last year, but will return to mediocrity this year. I need to do some research on this to get some exact numbers but I believe over the last decade or so, teams with first coaches do incredibly well, but nearly all of them drop off in the second year. My hypothesis on the reason? The obvious is a new coach brings energy to the team and players realize they are probably stuck with the guy for the next three or so year, meaning they better show up with max effort to impress the new boss. But the other big reason is a new head coach has no tendencies, therefore opposing coaches cannot game plan effectively against them. Guess what, in year two coaches can start game planning with success against these guys.

Pick: Miami 23 Atlanta 20

Kansas City @ Baltimore (-13) – The line opened up at -7 and has grown to -13, all because Matt Cassel is questionable and probably will not play. Yea right! Fantasy football headlines on Tuesday morning – “Clearance Sale of all Chiefs Players”.

Pick: Baltimore 24 Kansas City 7

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Carolina – The Panthers are a home team underdog on week one? Normally I would jump all of this, but this Carolina team is an absolute mess. Barring a total collapse by Andy Reid (always a possibility), the Eagles should get out of town with a big win.

Pick: Philadelphia 27 Carolina 13

Denver @ Cincinnati (-4.5) – The NFL schedule comes out in April and shortly after, the odds makers quickly post week one lines. The opening line for this game was Denver -3. In early August, the line was as low as Cincinnati -2. Which means there was enough action on the Bengals to move this over the logical landing point of 3 into “no mans” land of 4.5. Of course, this isn’t a surprise to me as I have the Bengals as a sleeper team this year.

Pick: Cincinnati 31 Denver 20

Minnesota (-4) @ Cleveland – Brett Favre isn’t going to let what happened last year happen again this year. Nope, he has already setup his excuse for poor play in the pre-season, a cracked rib, allegedly! As much as I hate to admit it, this Vikings team is really good.

Browns coach Mangini has incentive in this game (Favre effectively cost him his job with the Jets), but not the horses.

Pick: Minnesota 21 Cleveland 9

NY Jets @ Houston (-4.5) – Smells like a field goal game to me. The best prop bet in this game – “Matt Schuab gets hurt drinking a cup of Gatorade”; Yes +1500; No – 1800. I’ll take the “Yes”.

Pick: Houston 24 NY Jets 21

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-7) – I have no idea what to make of this J-Ville team and somehow Del Rio is still around even thought the team quit on him last year. At the end of the day, I will hang my pick on the fact the Jags always show-up to play the Colts.

Pick: Indianapolis 31 Jacksonville 28

Detroit @ New Orleans (-13.5) – Beware this is a trap game. There are quite a few things going for the Lions here – 1. The Saints are most likely telling each other “let’s have a great practice” or “what should we do after practice”; 2. The Lions have a completely new staff, making it very difficult to game plan against them; 3. The Lions had had five months to prepare for the Saints; 4. Starting running back Pierre Thomas is out of the lineup, meaning Saints coach Sean Payton will feel compelled to get Reggie Bush involved in the game more than he should (never a good thing). All in all, this game is much closer than one would expect.

Pick: New Orleans 34 Detroit 30

Dallas (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay – In the very first Indiana Jones movie, Raiders of the Lost Ark, there is a scene where Indiana is in the middle battle and from nowhere appears a warrior. The warrior does a series of fancy martial moves as he prepares to fight Indy. Indy gives him a dead-panned stare, pulls out a gun and shoots him. Well Bucs coach Raheem Morris is playing the part of the warrior by juggling players at seemingly every key position – RB, WR, QB, heck maybe even kicker. And at the end of the day the Cowboys will hit the Bucs right in the mouth and not worry about which of the 16 running backs Morris is rotating in the game.

Pick: Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 10

San Francisco @ Arizona (-5.5) – Lookie here, the odds makers posted this game at just a shade under a touchdown, in an effort to get action on the Cardinals. We all know what means, right? Right, Casinos aren’t built by gamblers cashing winning tickets at the sports book.

A loss here and the Cardinals will be lucky to finish 2009 with 8 wins. I got some bad news for Cards fans. . .

Pick: San Francisco 26 Arizona 23

Washington @ NY Giants (-6.5) – Another enticement to hammer the home team figuring they will win by at least a touchdown. So ask the question – “Who falls for this crap?”, “Not this guy” (both thumbs pointing at the man behind the words).

Pick: NY Giants 20 Washington 16

St. Louis @ Seattle (-7.5) – The odds-makers (screaming) “Take the points, take the points”. Normally, I think twice about a 7.5 line, but it this case it’s the Rams against the team I believe will win the NFC west.

Coach Spags will get this team headed in the right direction, but the Rams still have a dearth of talent left behind by the Martz era. It’s going to take another year or so.

Pick: Seattle 30 St. Louis 13

Chicago @ Green Bay (-3.5) – Clearly the odds-makers do not share the same sentiments about the Packers as I do. Give them time, as I stated above they are learning along with the rest of us.

I wish I could bet on the Packers minus 17 and get some odds. The best I could find is a “Packers to win by 19 or more” at 12-1. Ok, I will take it . . .

Pick: Green Bay 38 Chicago 14

Buffalo @ New England (-10.5) – Huh? 10.5 are you kidding me. So, taking into consideration 3 points for a home, the odds makers are trying to tell us that the Pats would be 4.5 favorite in Buffalo? What a joke. But what that tells us is the Pats defense blows and the Bills can keep this game close or throw up a late TD to back-door cover (yep, week one and I am reaching for “back-door” covers).

Pick: New England 31 Buffalo 23

San Diego (-10) @ Oakland – The more things change, the more they stay the same in Oakland. It’s week one and the Raiders are catching double digits at home. I couldn’t find a double digit home dog in the past five years. Tangent alert: I admit I need a research team, if you’re interested doing unpaid research for me, please email. It’s not totally unpaid, as I will grant you stock options on a sticky note that will tell you the number of shares you will receive once I go public. Ok, not really, but I couldn’t resist taking a shot at my former employer who actually had the audacity to that during the DOTCOM explosion. By the way, I still have the sticky that entitles me to 10000 shares of yet to be issued stock.

Back to the game, which should cap off week 1 in an utterly crappy way . . .

Pick: San Diego 30 Oakland 14

Bets:

Detroit +13.5 ($220 to win $200)

Detroit/New Orleans over 50 ($220 to win $200)

2-Team Parlay, Detroit +13.5 and Det/NO over 50 ($100 to win $260)

San Francisco +5.5 ($165 to win $150)

Green Bay to win by 19+ points ($50 to $600)

Risked today: $755

Futures Risked: $2,620

 

Season Results:

Record: 0-1

Bank: $6,830 ($43,170 away from my goal!)

NFL 2009 Predictions – NFC

NFC East:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	Dallas	12	4
2	NY Giants	11	5
3	Philadelphia	8	8
4	Washington	6	10

 

Dallas – Predicting the Cowboys to win the division with Wade Phillips as their coach is a little like jumping out of an airplane with an un-tested parachute. So why bother, right? Well, the absence of TO should help Romo be more comfortable as a quarterback and he will no longer have to feel guity throwing to his “butt buddy” on every play.

The Cowboys are still very talented on both sides of the ball.

NY Giants – The Giants are good but they have huge questions. They don’t have a #1 receiver and they lost “wind” of the “Earth, Wind and Fire”. Add to it that they lost as the number #1 seed a year ago and this could be the year the G-Men take a step back.

Philadelphia – The Eagles was a textbook example of what not to do if you want to compete in the NFL. Exhibit A, they let the heart and soul of the defense sign elsewhere (Brian Dawkins). I actually agree that you do not overpay defensive players, but there are exceptions and this is one of them. Dawkins was to the Eagles what Teddy Bruschi was to the Patriots. You have to bring a guy like that back.

Exhibit B, they signed Michael Vick, to be a quarterback. Huh? Ok, so you already have one of the most insecure startuing quarterback in the NFL in McNabb, why bring in, effectively, a younger version of him. Not to mention they already have the quarterback in waiting in Kevin Kolb. It’s more Andy Reid magic!

Washington – A truly wretched team, but they will find a way to win six games because of a brutally easy schedule and they actually have a nice home field advantage.

NFC North:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	Green Bay	11	5
2	Minnesota	10	6
3	Chicago	7	9
4	Detroit	3	13

 

Green Bay – I love everything about the Packers this year. Aaron Rodgers in his second year and without Brett Favre circus should flourish. Dom Capers will make the defense a force to be reckoned with. And Mike McCarthy is secretly one of the best coaches in the NFL.

Minnesota – The Vikings quite possibly have the most talent in the NFL, yet I predict they will barely make the playoffs and be bounced in the “Wildcard” round. Why? It’s all about coaching and Brad Childress is one of the worst coaches to ever wander an NFL sideline. Come playoff time Childress will look he is playing checkers to everyone else chess game.

And, oh yea, they decided that they needed to go out and get Brett Favre to make them a more complete team. I guess they weren’t watching at the end of last season when Favre single handedly destroyed the Jets season. Look for a fast start and then the ultimate, gut wrenching end to the season for Vikings fans.

Chicago – So, the big questsion in Chicago is – will the Bears feel compelled to become a passing team now that they have Jay Cutler? My guess is the answer is yes. And guess what, that will work very nice early in the year when the weather is decent, but once we start seeing those 50 MPH winds and sub-freezing temperatures that will be disastrous for “Da Bears “.

Detroit – This will be a pesky team, because they have some pieces in place. But in reality they are still a couple years away from truly competing

NFC South:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	New Orleans	11	5
2	Atlanta	10	6
3	Carolina	6	10
4	Tampa Bay	5	11

 

New Orleans – Sean Payton has finally figured out how to use Reggie Bush, keep him on the bench. Realistically the Saints wasted roughly two years of Drew Brees in his prime because they continually forcing the ball to Reggie Bush, presumably because the draft pick used to get him. Finally, I think the Saints are content to let Bush what he really is, a poor man’s Dave Meggett.

Atlanta – The Falcons fall in the same category as the Dolphins – second year head coach the year after an unbelievable turn-around who the league will now adjust to and they will struggle to win games. The difference between the Falcons and Dolphins is talent. The Falcons have a ton of talent and got better with the addition of Tony Gonzalez. They fall just short of the playoffs.

Carolina – The Panthers are my pick for most negative turn-around, as I have them losing six more games than one year ago. They failed to get better at quarterback, deciding the keep Jake Delhomme, for a mere $20 million and doing nothing in terms of adding an adequate backup, not if, but when Delhomme implodes. And to think as late as week 15 last year, this was the team to beat in the NFC. I think Jerry Glanville was right when he told an official, “You know what NFL stands for? Not For Long!”

Tampa Bay – I don’t think anyone included the Bucs have any clue what the identity of this team will be. Remember when the Bucs were 9-2 last year and everyone was talking about they were the Super Bowl favorites? Bucs fan does!

NFC West:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	Seattle	10	6
2	San Francisco	8	8
3	Arizona	7	9
4	St. Louis	3	13

 

Seattle – Understatement of the year: The key to the Seahawks is the health of Matt Hasselbeck. With a healthy Hasselbeck this team should easily win the west, without him they will fight the Rams for the cellar. And though Jim Mora (JR) is a terrible head coach, I think even he realizes the importance of keeping Matty healthy.

San Francisco – This is a very interesting team. What we know is they will play hard, but they don’t have a proven quarterback. The defense will carry them, but eventually they will need a quarterback to make a big play or two. I can’t see them much better than .500 given the quarterback or lack thereof.

Arizona – I will have the “Super Bowl Loser Hangover” and add a side “Roller Coaster” performance. I know it’s pre-season but the Cardinals have the look of a team that isn’t prepared to start playing games for real. And looking at the early schedule who can’t see 0-3 (San Fran, @ J-Ville and Indy)? That’s my prediction and by the time they hit the soft part of the schedule they will be out of the race.

 

St. Louis – Steve Spagnuolo has his work cut out for him. He should win the coach of the year if he wins five games. The roster is completely talent depleted outside of the Steven Jackson and OJ Antogwe.

 

NFC Playoffs

	1.Dallas
4. Seattle	6.NY Giants
5. NY Giants		1.Dallas
		2.Green Bay	Green Bay
	2.Green Bay
3. New Orleans	3.New Orleans
6. Minnesota

 

Super Bowl XLIV – New England 31 Green Bay 27

 

NFL 2009 Predictions – AFC

AFC East:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	New England	13	3
2	NY Jets	8	8
3	Buffalo	6	10
4	Miami	5	11

 

New England – I fully expect New England to be back on the “running it up” tour and to carry around the “us against the world” mantra. Brady will be tentative and the defense will be suspect, but they still have the best talent in the league and the schedule is easy, again!

NY Jets – I love that Rex Ryan had the job all of 42 seconds and he started the smack-talk about the Pats. Good move Rex! Starting Mark Sanchez is a reach, but why not – if you’re going to break in a new quarterback, you might as well do it in the first year of a contract.

Buffalo – 2.5 – the Over/Under on games it will take until Terrell Owens to go off on Edwards, the coaches and the front office. I honestly do not understand the signing of TO, unless it is strictly a PR move and an attempt to fill the Rogers Centre when the Bills travel north to Toronto. Best bet for a prediction – The Bills will play several tough games and seemingly be a very good team, but at the end of the year they will have six wins.

Miami – This Dolphin is going nowhere near the playoffs. Realistically, they shouldn’t have been in the playoffs last year – they were a product of three things – 1. The schedule which was not only soft but they seemingly caught every team on the right week; 2. The gimmick offense (the Wildcat), that teams now will adjust to playing against; 3. A head coach, new to coaching which translates to no tendencies the first year and major tendencies the second year, that teams can now game plan against.

AFC North:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	Baltimore	11	5
2	Cincinnati	9	7
3	Pittsburgh	8	8
4	Cleveland	4	12

 

Cincinnati – Quick, look at those standings, what jumps out at you? Right, the Browns only winning four games despite having the Mangenius coaching them. Ok, that’s not it – it’s the Bengals headed to the playoffs!

The Bengals appearing on HBO Hard Knocks is what really sucked me in – I mean found myself openly rooting for Marvin Lewis and who didn’t love every scene with Jim Lippincott (aka “the TURK”)? Lippincott’s main task is to tell players they have been put on waivers. But instead of calling players into an office and formally giving them the bad news, Lippincott stalks them! He nailed one guy on his way back from training table and there was never a stray word in his delivery, – “Marlon, we’re putting you on waivers. Where are you going to be flying into?” Just like that a player’s dream is over and Jimbo delivers in a way that would make John Kramer look sensitive to human emotions. This guy is the Jigsaw!

On the field the Bengals have a nice young aggressive defense and the offense is setup nicely with Carson Palmer and Ochocinco are allegedly all the way back.

Baltimore – If Joe Flacco is half as good as the pre-season hype he is receiving the Ravens will easily win this division. The Ravens could very well fall into the “head coach flopping in his second year” theory, but they will be immune because the offense is too young and talented and the defense is still the strength of the team.

Pittsburgh – I have to be honest, I liked it much better when the Steelers were blowing home AFC championship games. “Steeler Nation” is insufferable right now and has there ever, in the history of any sport, been a team that has had more good fortune in big games? Ever? The immaculate reception, the blown calls in Super Bowl 40 and the Harrison return last year. Turn those plays and the Steelers have no titles since 1979 and a mere three.

What we need to do is pull a “Freaky Friday” type of switch between the Steelers and the Bills .

Cleveland – It’s going to be a long year in Cleveland. Wow, if I had a nickel for every time that phrase was used to describe a Cleveland sports team, I would be wealthier than the combined wealth of the top 10 wealthiest people in the world.

AFC South:

Rank	Team	W	L
1	Indianapolis	11	5
2	Tennessee	10	6
3	Jacksonville	8	8
4	Houston	6	10

 

The South is has been the toughest division in the AFC the past few years, however, I see this division taking a step back this year as each team has huge questions.

Indianapolis – They still have Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. But outside of that there are big questions in Indy – how will they respond to a new coach? How will losing Marvin Harrison affect them? Can Bob Sanders stay healthy?

The answer is – yes and no. Yes, they are good enough to win the division, but no, they won’t advance in the post-season.

Tennessee – The Titans suffered a miserable season ending loss to the Ravens in the Divisional Playoff round last season after a 13-3 record, can they rebound from that heartbreak. History tells us, teams coming off that type of loss tend to fade from the picture quickly. Because the division is down the Titans can still make the playoffs, but again I don’t see them advancing.

Jacksonville – Aren’t the Jags perfectly pegged at 8-8? This is truly a team stuck in “perpetual mediocrity”, the Jags are officially the Atlanta Braves of the NFL.

They never get to the big game, but they’re always good enough that they cannot get a decent draft pick. And how many first round picks have busted out on them over the last decade? Like all 10 that’s how many.

Houston – After picking to Texans to make noise in the South for the last three years, I finally wised up and realized that the Texans exist only to put smiles Fantasy Football owners. Think about it – is there any team in the NFL that has a top 10 QB (Schuab), top 5 WR (A. Johnson), top 20 WR (K. Walter), top 10 TE (O.Daniels) and a top 10 RB (Slaton)? The only team that comes close is the Atlanta Falcons but Roddy White is not a top 5 guy and they have no second WR as good as Kevin Walter.

AFC West
Rank	Team	W	L
1	San Diego	12	4
2	Oakland	7	9
3	Denver	6	10
4	Kansas City	4	12

 

San Diego – Ho hum, the Chargers win by far the worst division in football, in fact the USC Trojans could replace the Chargers and win this division. Problem is, San Diego has Super Bowl championship talent, but they are coached by one of the worst head coaches ever.

In fact this division is full of terrible head coaches. . .

Oakland – Tom Cable gets the interim tag removed and is destined the next in a long line of successful Raiders head coaches. Yep, when you think about greatness roaming the sidelines you think of Bugel, Turner, Callahan, Kiffen and Cable. That sounds like a law firm, plumbing company.

Is this the year JaMarcus Russell finally gets it together and lives up to the hype? If not, maybe the Raiders should consider implementing the first ever “hail mary” offense. They put JaMarcus in punt formation and split four receivers out to one side, then let them all run streaks and let JaMarcus throw the 80 yard pass. They could even have variations of the play where one receiver acts as a “setter” (volleyball term) and another runs to the back of the pack. If they could complete one out of every 15 passes, they could average 21 points just on those plays. It works in Madden!

Denver – Checklist of to-do items for a new head coach:

• Piss off Franchise quarterback by going after a career backup – Check
• Trade said franchise quarterback for a Kyle Orton-type quarterback, wait they traded for the actual Kyle Orton – Check
• Sign 18 different running backs in the off-season, then use your first round pick to draft a running back – Check
• Piss off the best remaining offensive player (B. Marshall) – Check
• Act like a sarcastic, smarmy little punk – Check

 

It is going to be a long season in the Rockies.

 

Kansas City – And the winner of the Matt Cassel sweepstakes is …. The Chiefs!! And to show Cassel how excited they were to get him the Chiefs went out and traded their best offensive weapon (Gonzalez). Four wins might be a stretch for this team.

 

AFC Playoffs

	1.New England
4. Baltimore	6.Cincinnati
5. Tennessee		1.New England
		4.Baltimore	New England
	2.San Diego
3. Indianapolis	4.Baltimore
6. Cincinnati

 

“Quest for 50 begins” – NFL Week 1 Picks Part I

The “Quest for 50″ is my pursuit of what I consider to be the gambling holy grail – achieving 50 (153-103) games over .500 picking every NFL game against the spread. In reality, and since I am not ready to join the firm of Schlichter and Rose, I would never bet every NFL game every year. So, I decided to keep the “quest for 50″ going, but this I am adding the following twist (and a new “Sports Bucket List” item) this year – I will start with $10,000 of funny money and attempt to turn it into $50,000 by the end of year.

Note: Lines are courtesy of covers.com and I will be using the Hard Rock casino lines.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) – This is a no brainer for a couple of reasons. First off, the defending champs are like 99912-0 (actually 4-0-1) against the spread since the NFL started opening on Thursday night.

Secondly, and most importantly, the Steelers have some unfinished business with the Titans. The Titans defaced a “Terrible Towel” after defeating the Steelers in 2008. And if you know anything about the hallowed “Terrible Towel”, well let’s just leave it at you’d be better off grilling burgers in the middle of Uttar Pradesh, India.

Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5

Bet: Pittsburgh -5.5 $550 to win $500

Ten Bold (and Spicy) Fantasy Predictions for 2009

Let’s kick off the 2009 fantasy football season with the 10 Boldest Fantasy Predictions EVER! That’s right, in the history of fantasy football never before has there been predictions that spit in the face of conventional wisdom.

I also want to note that these are real fantasy predictions and not a prediction like “In 2009, I will receive at least one outlandish trade offer from a self-indulgent liberal that includes a greeting that is at best a thinly veiled insult.” That is a guarantee to happen and for me to make such a prediction would be stealing money.

My guarantee to you – if one of these predictions fails to come through, I will stop referring to myself as a “Fantasy Guru”. That’s how confident I am in each of these coming true.

After loads of research, here are the 10 Boldest Fantasy Predictions EVER:

1. Matt Leinart will have more TDs than Kurt Warner in 2009. I come out swinging with perhaps the boldest of the boldest. How many athletes do you know that have come back from a hip injury? Not many! Most importantly, Leinart is finally putting it together which gives the Cardinals staff confidence to run a similar offense with him.
   
2. Chris Henry will lead the Bengals in TDs, Receiving Yards and Receptions in 2009. What OchoCinco think of this prediction – “Child Please”. I am not much of a believer in OchoCinco, given the fact he spends more time on social networking sites than a teenage girl. But again this is more about Henry and getting his life together.
3. Laurence Maroney will rush for more than 10 TDs in 2009. The corollary to this is Tom Brady will suck sweaty donkey balls. This is bold not just for the fact that everyone human on the planet thinks the Pats will throw, throw, throw, but even if the Pats became the Nebraska, circa mid 90s, they have four running backs and have made a commitment to none of them. My gut tells me Belichick will throttle Brady down, if for nothing else than just plain fear of Brady getting injured again and having to turn the reins over to Matt Gutierrez. Another thing in Maroney’s favor, Belichick’s butt buddy is now with the Chiefs, so there will be no more throwing to Vrabel from the 1 yard line.
   
4. James Davis will lead the Browns in Rushing yards and TDs. Who is James Davis? Only the most sagacious fantasy owners are in on Davis. He might be the second coming of Terrell Davis, who was a 6^th round pick and did some major damage his rookie season. And it doesn’t hurt that Davis only has to leap-frog Jamal Lewis.
   
5. Darren McFadden will finish the season in the top 10 fantasy points amongst running backs. When Tom Cable isn’t beating the hell out of his subordinates, he likes to run the ball. The biggest benefactor will be McFadden, who I expect will regain the burst from his college days and find the game a bit slower this year.
   
6. Ladainian Tomlinson will be the number #1 fantasy point scorer at running back this year. And then he will ride off into the sunset as one of the all-time fantasy football greats. The corollary to this is Phillip Rivers will not live up to expectations this year. A healthy LT and a ferocious defense will keep the quarterbacks numbers down in 2009.
   
7. Antonio Bryant will be in the free agent pool by the end of the season. Tampa Bay might be the worst fantasy football situation in the history of fantasy football. They have four mediocre quarterbacks, three slightly better than average running backs and one receiver. Now if you’re a defensive coordinator wouldn’t you take Bryant out of the game first and let the other mish-mash of mediocrity try to beat you. Most good DCs would. Throw in the fact that Bryant missed the entire pre-season with a hamstring injury and you have the recipe for disaster. Fantasy owners drafting Bryant right now fall into two categories – the ones who draft exclusively from a magazine (published in June) and the ones who didn’t move him down far enough and were tempted at least three times before finally caving.
   
8. Steve Slaton will finish outside the top 20 amongst running backs. First off, the Texans defense is atrocious, so they won’t be running the ball. Secondly, the Texans are giving everyone but Slaton a chance to be the goal-line back. And lastly, Slaton won’t sneak up on anyone this year, meaning defensive coordinators will game plan against Slaton.
   
9. Visanthe Shiancoe will finish 2009 in the top 5 amongst TEs. Brett Favre loves the TE. Brett Favre loves to bootleg and hit the TE dragging across the middle. Shiancoe is a tight end. Therefore, Brett Favre loves him.
   
10. The Green Bay Packers will score the most special teams/defensive touchdowns in 2009. No doubt, Dom Capers will have a major impact on that defense but here are two other reasons – 1. Their schedule. Six division games – against a pathetic Lions team and a rookie quarterback, a Vikings team whose head coach routinely forgets about special teams and a Bears team with a new gun-slinging quarterback. They also play the Rams, Browns and Bengals. 2. Will Blackmon will turn into Devin Hester this year.
    

There you have it, draft accordingly and come December you will be hoisting the Fantasy Lombardi as your leagues champ.

Super Bowl XLIII Prediction

I have a couple of phrases that I used frequently – one is Cardinals specific and the other is a general phrase stolen from a favorite family movie.

The Cardinals specific phrase I began using that phrase shortly after I started consistently going to the Cardinals games in 1997. Early in the 1998 season, I believe in week 5 against the Raiders, the Cardinals faced a third (or fourth down) last in the game, I turned to my buddy and said “this is the whole season right here”. It somehow stuck and the years that followed the key would be to drop the phrase as early in the season as possible, when you knew the Cardinals were done for the year. Most times that phrase could’ve been uttered in the pre-season. But Card fans this year we literally already had a “this is the whole season” moment – the “first flight” (as I call it, the 4^th quarter drive against the Eagles).

The other phrase is from “Kicking and Screaming”, with Will Farrell. As his youth soccer team is about to play for the “Highland Heights Championship”, Phil Weston (Farrell) gathers his team together and begins to whisper, “You either win and go on to greatness, or lose and face a series of cataclysmic events that will haunt you forever”. Not much middle ground there! I use that with kids in all facets of their life – school projects or tests, dance recitals, sporting events and even video game competitions. It seems as though this fits the Cardinals to a tee – win and potentially start Patriot like run or lose and be forgotten like previous unlikely Super Bowl participants like the Seahawks, Falcons and Chargers.

How unbelievable is it that the Cardinals are in the Super Bowl? I made a list of things I think are more believable:

1. The Tampa Bay Rays winning the AL East and representing the AL in the World Series
2. Tiger Woods winning the US Open with a torn ACL.
3. Britney Spears making a comeback. Isn’t this one just the way it is in the 21^st century – one day you’re a train-wreck and your career is in the dumper, the next all is forgotten and her albums are selling like they cure the aging process.
4. Manny Ramirez re-signing with the Red Sox. Not going to happen. But I would love to see the Dodgers low-ball Manny with a 2/35 type offer. Hey Manny, Boras made sure he took care of Teixeira!
5. All of the Rambo movies, but especially Rambo III where Johnny boy takes on an entire army and lives to tell about it in Rambo

If we throw out the expansion Texans, who in their limited existence would be part of every stat of futility, the Cardinals are the only NFL franchises without a 12 win season and they were the only NFL franchise to never play in a conference championship game. This is an historical bad franchise, yet they are sitting on the doorstep of the greatest prize in sports.

If you think the Cardinals being in the Super Bowl is unbelievable, how about them actually winning the game. Prepare to be astonished because I am going on record predicting not only will the Cardinals cover the spread but win the game out-right. That’s right the Arizona Cardinals, a team that has never seen a 12+ win NFL season, will win Super Bowl XLIII.

Before I get to the official pick, here are some bonus “best bet” prop bets for the XLIII and a special “gleaning info from this prop bet” section where use the odds in the prop bet as information of how this game might play out:

MVP – James Harrison (30-1). Yes, I like the Cardinals to win this game and I know there is no way a defensive player of the losing team could ever win the MVP. But Harrison is the one player, who as a Cardinals fan scares me the most. Tackle Mike Gandy simply cannot block Harrison one-on-one (think Max Lane verse Reggie White).

And throw in the fact that John Madden is announcing this game and he tends to get fixated on a player and can’t you see him ball washing Harrison into the MVP?

Gleaning info: Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh’s WR, are both 12-1. Boldin and Fitzgerald are both lower at 10-1 and 6-1 respectively. This tells me that Ward is not 100% and probably will not be a huge factor. Thus enabling the Cardinals to stick their best corner on Holmes and giving them a big advantage.

Margin of Victory – This has to be a mistake by the book, but the Steelers winning by 25+ points is the favorite at 7-2. I will take the Cardinals by 4-7 points for 6-1.

Gleaning info: The favorite follows nicely with my logic that this game will only be either a Cardinals win or a Steelers blowout, but 25+ points?

Most Receiving Yards – Interestingly, Hines Ward is not listed. I will take Field at 3-1, which is all players except Fitzgerald, Boldin and Holmes. I have a feeling Steve Breaston might have a big day.

Gleaning info: Again Ward not listed tells me he will not be a huge factor in the game.

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 UNANSWERED TIMES – I will take the +140 ($100 bet returns $140) and go with NO.

Gleaning info: Prop bets are more heavily juiced than a normal straight bet and generally right around -120/-130 ($12 bet wins you $100). Since this is out-of-whack, it leads me to believe that the books feel this game could get out of hand. This again, plays into my theory of either a Steelers blowout or Cardinals win.

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY EITHER TEAM – 15.5 is the number and the significant favorite is the UNDER at -140. I will take the over and the +110, since I actually think the Cardinals will own a lead of better that 15.5.

Gleaning info: This doesn’t make sense with the other prop bets regarding a Pittsburgh blowout.

TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY ARIZONA – 78.5 is the number. The under is -160. I will take the over and the +130. While I doubt James/Hightower/Arrington will have much more than 50 combined, I can see the Cardinals getting some reverse yardage with Breaston/Boldin.

Gleaning info: Not too surprising that the books believe the Cardinals will struggle to run the ball. I think the number is really high, however, which leads me to believe the Cardinals might have more success than we think – because (repeat with me) “bookies do not give money away”.

WILL TIM HIGHTOWER SCORE A TOUCHDOWN? – +170 on Yes, -200 on No. Mark me down for Yes. He is the goal-line back, you have to play the percentages that he will get at least three opportunities and will convert one of them.

Gleaning info: For comparison purposes, based on the books opinion Anquan Boldin is more likely to score than Tim Hightower. I think they made a rare mistake here and the only info I can glean is that the Steelers will stop the Cardinals running game, who knew?

LONGEST COMPLETION BY KURT WARNER – YARDS – Over 43.5 at +110.

Gleaning info: For a team that allegedly will not run the ball effectively and will be winging it virtually every down this seems low. They will hit at least one big play where either Boldin breaks a few tackles, Breaston gets loose deep or on a gimmick play.

MOST PASSING YARDS – Roethlisberger +23.5 over Warner at +120. I think the Cardinals will build a lead and force the Steelers in playing catch-up by throwing the ball.

Gleaning info: The 23.5 spread is low, so I deduce that this game might follow conventional wisdom – Cardinals passing v. Steelers rushing, etc.

FIRST TURNOVER OF THE GAME WILL BE - +140 on fumble, why not? A fumble is just about as likely as an interception and I get odds.

TEAM TO HAVE THE LAST POSSESSION OF THE GAME – This is rightfully on the Steelers at -180, since I can only recall one Super Bowl to end with the losing team in possession of the ball (Tennessee in SB XXXIV). I will take the Steelers at -180 based on the value. I can take the Cardinals at +200 for the game and effectively be in a “no lose” situation.

Alternate Line – Arizona -3.5 at +290. Great value – +190 for the Cardinals to win outright, I add an extra Benjamin by giving up the 1,2 or 3 point Cardinal win.

TEAM TO RECEIVE OPENING KICKOFF – The biggest no-brainer in the history of sports betting is taking Arizona at -190. If the Cardinals win the toss they want the ball, if the Steelers win the toss they want to play defense.

Gleaning info: This will be the first sign as to whether Pittsburgh’s coaching staff is in over their head – if go against taking the ball, the second guessing will start before kickoff and the pressure will be on the Steelers offense. If it backfires, look for the Steelers staff to be tight the rest of the game.

Number of times John Madden mentions Brett Favre – Interesting wording of this one – “mentions” – meaning he doesn’t necessarily have to say “Favre”, he can merely say something along the lines of “a great player who wears #4″ or “a great Super Bowl champ who led the Packers” or “before I go to bed every night, I rub the belly of my bronzed statue of the greatest quarterback to ever play the game”. I will take OVER 99.5 times!

The official Super Bowl pick:

Arizona vs. Pittsburgh (-7.0)

Since earlier I gave the pick away, here is the logic:

• The Steelers defense is over-rated. How many top 10 offenses did the Steelers beat in ideal conditions during the 2008 season? Zero! That’s right none. In fact, the only explosive offenses they played this year were the Colts, Chargers and Cowboys (Romo back one game). All three of those games were in the bog that is Heinz field, with inclement weather in all three. Six games against the Bengals, Browns and Ravens will make any defense look great! I am not suggesting the Steelers defense will get ripped by the Cardinals; I am stating their defense isn’t as dominating as the east coast biased media would have you believe.
  
• The saying goes something like this – “Offense wins games, defense wins championships”. Yet in the last ten Super Bowls the team with the arguably the better defense has lost the game five times (Patriots, Bears, Eagles, Panthers, Titans).
  
• The Cardinals staff and their knowledge of the Steelers. Fourteen starts remain from the 2005 Super Bowl team and if you think that does not matter, ask the former coach of the Oakland Raiders who will forever be known as “the most worthless college coach ever”. Whisenhunt and staff have a plan to attack the Steelers and they know the strengths and weaknesses possibly better than the current Steelers staff.
  
• The Cardinals are on one of those “runs”. In the NFL 2008, it’s about getting into the playoffs and getting hot – Giants, Colts, Steelers, Patriots and Rams – have shown us that a “hot” team is often better than a so-called better team.
  
• Neither Roethlisberger nor Ward is 100%. And Roethlisberger hasn’t been much better than average in big games.
  
• The “zero sum” theory of the NFL – that every bad call has an eventual make-up call. This is a bit of a stretch, but with a west-coast team playing an east-coast team and the perceived (rightfully so) east-coast bias I could see a marked effort by the officials to make-up every bad call against the Seahawks, for the Cardinals this year. Come on Seattle jump on, “this one is for you”. Plus, what would be better than listening to an off-season of Steelers fan moaning about the refs.
  
• The pressure is squarely on the Steelers shoulders, especially their head coach and front offce. The Steelers allowed Whisenhunt, Grimm and company to walk two years ago in favor of Tomlin and they have not watched Whisenhunt toward around the laughing stock of the NFL in two short years. And Tomlin hasn’t disappointed, but he took over a Super Bowl champion team, if he loses expect the fans to start second-guessing the original decision to go with Tomlin.
  
• The Cardinals are playing house money. Normally this would lead to the inevitable “just happy to be here” performance, but this team is led by Kurt Warner and he knows how painful it is to lose a Super Bowl. On the flipside, he knows the exhilaration of winning a Super Bowl. I promise that Kurt shared both of those feelings this week.
  
• The Cardinals trick plays. I expect at least well-designed, well-executed perfectly timed trick play by the Cardinals. This works two-fold in the Cardinals favor, they will deliver this at an opportune time and the Steelers will feel some pressure to deliver something of a gimmick themselves, especially considering the above statement about the two coaches. I can see the Steelers trying something and it completely back-firing, while the Cardinals deliver a knock out blow with one of their own.
  
• Finally, two numbers – 81 and 27 – the high temperatures for the Phoenix and Pittsburgh on Tuesday, the presumed parade day. And not just 27, but 27 with snow showers making for far too dangerous conditions for a parade. If a day was ever made for a parade, Tuesday, February ^3rd in Phoenix is that day. I can’t bet against that.
  

Arizona 31 Pittsburgh 27

Last Week: 2-0

2008 Playoffs: 6-4

All-Time Playoff Record (1995-2007): 80-73

Best Playoff Record: 7-4 (2007)