MLB Post-Season Division Series Wrap-up – Cubs/Dodgers

The Cubs are gone, the streak of futility continues! I just watched the last three outs of the Cubs season and I’m flabbergasted at how the best team in the NL for the entire season could have fallen so flat in the playoffs. If this were March, I would feel like my NCAA bracket just got busted.

What went wrong for the Cubs? Well just about everything, but specifically the series turned south for the northsiders in game one when James Loney’s fly ball landed in the center field bleachers for a grand slam. From that point forward the Cubs played as tight Steven Tyler’s pants.

There is plenty of blame to go around – Alfonso Soriano will take the brunt of it. Soriano hit .077 in the series and countless times came up small in big situations. The reality of the post-season in baseball is pitching rules and while the Cubs hitters sucked badly, the pitching has to take its share of the blame. The decision to start the series with Dempster (or Dumpster) was arrogant and foolish. With the division clinched, the Cubs had plenty of time to set their rotation and they decided to go with Dempster instead of Zambrano or Harden. I personally would have gone with Harden in game one, with Zambrano in game two. Then you bring Dempster/Lilly in games in LA.

For those counting at home, the Cubs have now lost nine consecutive playoff games and have gone, gulp, 101 years without a title. My heart goes out the Cubs fans!

Oh and Dodger fans, the 30,000 or so of you that recently traded your Kirk Gibson jersey in for a Manny Ramirez one, I promise you that you will not
win
the World Series. The Phils, Brewers or any of the Al teams will not lie down like a New York City chick’s hair in heavy rain the way the Cubs did.

2008 MLB Division Series Predictions

In my “… Second Half MLB Predictions…“, I nailed four division winners (Phillies, Cubs, Rays and Angels) and one of the wildcards (Brewers, thanks Mets!). I missed out on the Diamondbacks and Twins as division winners and the Yankees as a wild card (although we all know that I put the reverse jinx on the Yankees).

A couple quick playoff facts before my predictions:

1. Two teams this year have a chance to set the record for most consecutive post-season wins. The Yankees currently hold the record winning 12 straight over the 1998 and 1999 post-seasons. The Red Sox currently have seven game winning streak and the White Sox hold an eight game winning streak.
2. The Red Sox have a current eight game World Series winning streak and the White Sox sit at four games. The record is 14 straight done by the Yankees over four seasons – 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000.

Here are my division series predictions:

NL Division series – Brewers v. Phillies (Original Pick: Brewers)

The way the schedule works out, Sabathia only has to pitch on three days rest once for this series (Game 2). This is a relief, since I think CC’s left arm has a 50/50 chance of falling off at some point this post-season.

My original pick was based on the Phillies having to face Sabathia and Sheets, on full rest, three times during the series. Sheets is iffy at best and Sabathia has made three consecutive starts on three days rest. The Brew-Crew’s rotation isn’t exactly setup for the post-season.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are setup with their top three pitchers set to go in games 1-3. Game one is always huge, but in this series it means more than most and with Sabathia looming in game two the Phillies have to take game one.

I like the Phillies and Hamels in game one, Sabathia to send the series back to Milwaukee 1-1. At that point the shambles that is the Brewers rotation will take its toll and the Phillies will close the Brewers out in four.

Philadelphia 3 Milwaukee 1

NL Division series – Dodgers v. Cubs (Original Pick: Cubs)

The Cubs rotation 1 to 4 is the best in the playoffs, however, Zambrano is a head case and has been terrible since his no-hitter. Zambrano is slated to pitch game two, with Dempster getting the nod in game one. I would be extremely concerned if I am Cubs fan that if the Cubs drop game one, Zambrano, “the head case”, will show up for game two and the Cubs will head to LA down two games. For those reasons, game one is more important to the Cubs than the Dodgers.

Based on regular season run differential, the Dodgers are the worst team in the playoffs while the Cubs are the best. Those numbers are somewhat skewed by the Manny Ramirez “give away”, but even if we analyze the post-deadline numbers the Dodgers are still trailing the Cubs in run differential (+54 to +37) and a record (32-19 to 30-24). Overall, the Cubs are a much stronger team and have a significant advantage.

When I ask the question “can the Cubs win the series if they lose the first two games?”, I still think they can. The Cubs send Harden and Lilly to the mound in games three and four, while the Dodgers counter with Kuroda and probably Lowe on short rest. Advantage Cubs.

If I reverse the question and asking “can the Dodgers win the series if they lose the first two games?”, I say no possible way. In fact, if they lose the first two games, the Cubs will sweep. That is the difference, the Cubs are just too much for the Dodgers.

Chicago 3 Los Angeles 1

AL Division series – White Sox v. Rays (Original Pick: Rays)

We really don’t know how the Rays will respond to their first ever trip to the playoffs, but if the regular season is any indication the Rays will respond just fine. When faltering, the Rays found a way to beat Papelbon in Fenway and hold off the Red Sox for the division. The home field advantage for the Rays is significant, given the artificial surface and the speed of the Rays.

The Rays hold the edge in starting and relief pitching. And any advantage the White Sox might have in hitting is neutralized by the speed of the Rays. This series isn’t close on paper and will not be on the field.

The White Sox best chance to win a game is game two with Buehrle matched up against an inconsistent Kazmir. Outside of that game, the matchups are significantly in the Rays favor.

Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 0

AL Division series – Red Sox v. Angels (Original Pick: Angels)

When ranking the starting pitchers in this series, the best Angels starter (Lackey) would be the fourth best (Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester). This series setup very nicely for the Red Sox with Beckett prepared to shut the Angels down in game one and the Red Sox returning to Fenway with at worst a split. Then Beckett strained his oblique in a side session and his start is pushed back to game three.

The Beckett injury flips this series completely in favor of the Angels. The Angels owned the Red Sox in the regular season and have a confidence against that hasn’t existed in previous playoff meetings with the Sox. However, if “playoff” Beckett showed up in game one and shut the Angels down, they would start pressing and the series would be over before it began. And even though I think Lester has an advantage over Lackey, I can see the Angels grinding out an extra inning win in game one and setting the tone for the entire series.

I love Matsuzaka in game two with a 1-0 lead, but hate him down 1-0. And if any of these games are decided by the bullpens, the Angels have an over whelming advantage. In addition, any tight game will swing the Angels way since they are about hundred million times more likely to manufacture a run than are the Sox.

The Angels win the first two and even “playoff” Beckett will not be enough to stop the momentum the Angels will have.

Los Angeles 3 Boston 0 (reverse jinx? Not this time!)

 

Yankee Fans, Celebrate like it’s Year 2000!

Finally, after 159 games the 2008 Yankees have defined their season – they were able to keep the Boston Paw Sox (yes, the Red Sox played a lineup full of minor leaguers) from the AL East title. With the 19-8 beat-down, the Rays backed into the AL East title and Yankee fans have bragging rights for the final three days of the regular season.

For those historians – the last time the Yankees won 19-8 in Fenway, the Red Sox didn’t lose a game the rest of the year.

So congrats to the Yankees and their fans, now sit back and enjoy the Red Sox post-season run to their second consecutive and third championship in five years.

Yankee Elimination Day – 2008-09-23

Yes, today officially ended the Yankees season. I must admit I have somewhat of an empty feeling – I mean no Yankees in October! I really thought I would be more excited to call my Yankee fan friends and rub it in – you know, the classic voicemail:

VM: [BEEP]

ME: “Ya, ah Larry, it’s the playoffs here and I am sorry to inform that we have filled our quota and will not need your team this year. Thanks for your interest. Enjoy your October.”

But there is a part of me that doesn’t like seeing the Yankees as a fourth place also-ran. What fun is that? I would much rather see them choke on the big stage again. What’s better than an October where A-Rod is hitting 8^th (2006 against Detroit) or Chien-Ming Wang post a “new release DVD price” type ERA of 19.06 in two starts (2007 against Cleveland).

In all seriousness, the Yankees run of thirteen consecutive playoff appearance is remarkable. The base of this success is a tribute the Yankees home grown talent they developed in the early 90s – Jeter, Riveria, Hernandez, Posada and Pettitte – and smart free agent acquisitions – Paul O’Neil, David Cone, Scott Brosius, Tino Martinez and David Wells. Once they began to jettison those role players for “the highest price” free agent each year, they slowly began to devolve into the 1980s version of the Yankees.

When you look back at the 1998 version of the Yankees, arguably the best of the bunch, their leading home run hitter hit a pedestrian 28. The home run leader that year hit 56, so it wasn’t a down year. The point is the 1998 Yankees had guys willing to do what it took to win – whether it is moving a runner along with a productive out or laying down a sac bunt. Once they lost the 2001 World Series, the Yankees starting spending again and they have never been the same.

In that time they have seen their arch-rivals not only win two championships, but use the 90s Yankee model to achieve success. That is the salt in the wound.

The run is over for them and major changes are looming. Will they be back? Of course they will, as they have managed to hold onto their young pitching and they still have the money to nab key free agents, Sabathia and Teixeira will most certainly be part of their opening day roster in 2009.

So baseball fans enjoy this much needed playoff break for the Yankees, as it will not last long.

Sox v. Rays – 9/10/2008

Here I sit in the “Commons” at my church watching the Sox and Rays battle in extra innings. There is something calming about this place – to my left nine people are gathered around a four-top and are entrenched in a bible study. There are kids running around and playing games on the internet, basically being kids.

We are in the top of the 12th and Kevin Youkilis just drew a walk, bringing to the plate last night’s aborted hero, Jason Bay. Aborted because Papelbon denied him (yes, I am still bitter). No way the Rays are even close tonight, if Paps does his job. Bay strikes against a lefty, but I am quite calm. I should watch every game here. That brings to the plate, Alex Cora, an automatic out. Sure enough, he hits the ball well but right at someone, on to the 13th. I am on record with this prediction – the winner of the game tonight will win the AL East.

My gut tells me the Rays scrap out a run this inning and the Sox will have Kotsay, Lowrie and David Ross against Percival in the bottom. Ball game, if that happens. Sure enough – lead-off double. You really have to give the Rays credit – three outs away from watching their seemingly insurmountable lead vanish, facing one of the top closers in the game and they found a way to win. Now they are two productive outs away from wrapping up the division.

There are two very non-productive outs, in the form of a double play. The Sox have life, but Narravo (he of the blown kiss to Papelbon, which I love you – should rub it in when you beat one of [th[e best) the hero last night is up needing only an infield single to wrap up the division. Nice it is starting to rain and the satellite is gonzo – do people in Seattle have DirecTV? How do they see a minute of TV? I will have to get updates from my phone – I am looking for the key words “MID 13TH”. Yes, “Navvaro grounded out to first”.

My daughter is out of her class and we are off to listen to the XM broadcast of the “BOT 13TH”. By the way, I never miss a pitch – between Extra Innings, XM and the internet and yes, I am this way about every game from opening to the final pitch of game 4 of the 2008 World Series.

OK, so it is still raining and I cannot find my daughter, but the game is back on and it is at commercial – what a 3 minute inning. Maybe the Sox found a way to win this thing. No such luck – on the 14TH. They must have seen a total of three pitches.

Timlin is warming – oh no, he is coming in – ball game! Fortunately, the Sox having “Automatic Out” (Ellsbury), Pedroia and Ortiz coming to the plate. I am sad that I cannot see Ellsbury end another inning with runners in scoring position.

Timlin somehow records an out before giving up 5 runs. Two outs. That little turd, Aki Iwamura, gets on with a single. And here we go, one out from Timlin is just about the best anyone can expect. Back to back hits and the Rays have the winning run in scoring position. At this point, if they allow Timlin to continue, I am just hoping he keeps that at one run. We still have a chance down only one. Oh my, they are letting him face Carlos Pena – 50/50 that this is a 4-1 game. Gone! I promise you that I predicted that. Good night! Good Bye division! Hoepfully, they can hang on in the wildcard race.

Delivery for Mr. Papelbon

Flash forward to Friday, 9/12/2008, its afternoon in the Red Sox clubhouse, DHL (the official shipper of MLB) shows up with a package addressed to Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon grabs the package, shakes it and rips through the outside wrapping to reveal a nicely wrapped package with an attached card. Paps grabs the card undoes the envelope and pulls it it reads “Thanks for Tuesday night!” Paps then turns his attention to the package, his curiosity peaked, and he tears into the package like a 4-year old at Christmas. What’s in the box – a turd sandwich, complete with mini-packets of various condiments.

The Red Sox missed a chance to take over first-place and lost tonight, 5-4, top the Rays. Losing in a fashion that, pre-2004, would have brought forth references to the “Curse of Joe Sambino”. The Sox trailed most of the game after an all too typical performance by the 100 million dollar man, Daisuke Matsuzaka, 5 innings, roughly 900 pitches, multiple walks, hit batters and a virtual Houdini act to get out of trouble in each inning. In the 8^th, Jason Bay hit a 2-run home run to give the Sox a 4-3 lead. This was to be as demoralizing of a loss as could be for the already reeling Rays, one that might send them into a Tampa-esque 2-13 stretch that not only eliminates them from the division but has them on the outside looking in at the wildcard.

Enter Jonathan Papelbon. First batter ties the game with a home run. Carlos Pena hit, right? Sure sometimes good hitters get the best of good pitchers. No, Dan Johnson hit the home run. Minor leaguer Dan Johnson, in his second at bat of the season! Two more Punch and Judy’s hit ringing doubles to give the Rays the lead.

Look, I cannot rip Paps, without him no way the Sox win 2007 World Series, but it’s September and you do not blow saves in September/October. If you keep blowing saves in September/October you’re going to end up like Rivera and the Yankees, title-less in this millennium! Well that cannot happen, but you get the point!