2010 NFL – Super Bowl XLV Edition

Super Bowl XLV is upon us. Before we get to the picks, I want to touch on this Visa “Never miss a Super Bowl Club” commercial. You know the one where they found these four old coots who claim they have been to every Super Bowl as they promote their contest to award the eventual winner with a trip to every Super Bowl for the rest of their life. OK, so I am calling no effing way, BS on these guys.

But you say, Cavey allegedly these guys have the tickets stubs from every game, if that is the case, they have to have gone. Yep, that settles it – they definitely have been to every game if they have the ticket stubs, I mean there is no way you could buy Super Bowl ticket stubs on EBay or at Sports collectible convention. They have every Super Bowl program? Please, the NFL sells them after the fact to collectors and fans. They have pictures? Hello, Photoshop!

The facts against are over-whelming – from family to financial to mere logistics. Think about the impact that would have had on the families, there had to be at least one time where there was a family conflict, where attending the game meant missing special event. Come on, are you try to sell me that not one time in the last 45 years Mrs. Never Miss a Super Bowl didn’t put her foot down, telling one of those bozos, “Chief, you’re not going this year!”

Let’s talk about the financial impact, one of these guys worked for an airline as a ticket agent. Um, so how was this guy able to afford tickets that routinely run in the $2500 range? I know for a fact that the Pats/Giants Super Bowl XLI tickets were going for $3000 a ticket. And that was for a nose bleed. What would that be for the ticket agent – a month of salary? And that just gets him in the game. I am sure he was able to save on airfare, being that he worked for an airline, but still it all adds up to a fairly hefty number.

No doubt these guys have attended more than a few games, maybe even as many as 30, but I think is it far more likely that they crafted this story, got the NFL, and Visa, to buy in and now are cashing in as allegedly the NFL gives these guys tickets at face value (yet, it’s still no bargain at $600 a seat) each year, so they can continue “the streak”. What a joke! Coming next – a TLC special documentary on these guys and how they’ve kept the streak, despite the damage to their families.

All right enough ranting, on to the picks.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy
of
covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs:6-4 (Last week 1-1)

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 5-5 (Last week 1-1)

 

First, here are my favorite prop bets:

Will one team record three consecutive scores? Yes -170, No +140. Allegedly “the Sharps” are all over the Yes side of this because it happens in the majority of Super Bowls.

Quick tangent here – how does one become a “Sharp”? Is there a class? Is it as simple as titling yourself a “Professional Sports Investor”? I want an answer, because for something so ambiguous, there is a clear delineation between “Sharps” and “Squares”.

Anyway, I bought into this until I realized I had to lay odds to take the “yes”. After further review, “every” must mean the last two Super Bowls, because in the last eight Bowls the “three unanswered scores” is just .500. My guess is if you throw out the blowout Super Bowls, this prop would be right around .500. And since the Packers and Steelers are evenly matched, it is unlikely either team will score three unanswered times. The +140 on the “No” is great value.

The number of times “Little Ben” made an appearance this week? 2.5. Give me the under, but either way hopefully, for his sake, it was consensual.

First Steeler to intercept a pass? Bryant McFadden +750 Really? Can I bet on “There is no effing way Bryant McFadden breaks up a pass”? I would happily lay -1000 on that. Yea, he’s that bad!

Donald Driver receiving yards 44.5, receptions 4 – Over and Over. For a few reasons – 1. He should see a ton of linebacker coverage from the slot; 2. He is a great player, better person and a guy you want to root for (wow, that was a real “square” reason); 3. There is an up and coming porn star, hoping the Packers win this game so Driver will retire and giving him the opportunity to change his stage name to Don Driver.

Number of references to Brett Favre cock-blocking Aaron Rodgers, 6.5 – Here’s a crazy theory for you – maybe Favre knew how good Rodgers was going to be, so he decided to play games in hopes that Rodgers would either get fed-up and demand a trade or just give up period. And Favre had to play just the way he did – because if the Packers knew he was coming back at the end of each season, Rodgers would have asked for a trade after about five seasons of sitting. But by flip-flopping, Rodgers thought he had the job. That’s was the key he couldn’t let Rodgers have a clearly defined role. And it’s Fox, so I can hear in my ears Joe Buck waxing about “How Aaron Rodgers patiently waited, blah, blah”.

Heath Miller receiving yards vs. Dwight Howard Points+Rebounds, Miller -6.5 – This is a lock if Dwight Howard mimics Paul Pierce’s pre-game ritual of “rolling the dice”, but either way I expect Miller to have a nice day, so unless Howard goes off for like a 40-20, Miller money in the bank. Plus, the ceiling on Miller is an impossible number for Howard.

Total Number of Packers to have a rushing attempt, 4 – At worst this is a push, Starks, Rodgers, Kuhn and Jackson will get at least a carry. You have to play this with the hopes that McCarthy will run a WR reverse or throw a bone to BJ Raji on the goalline.

Driver -3 receiving yards over Hines Ward – Love Driver, hate Ward in this game.

Mike Wallace +17.5 receiving yards over Greg Jennings – I like Wallace to hit a big play in this game, Jennings will be solid, but not spectacular.

Pittsburgh v. Green Bay (-2.5)

CaveKid’s Elementary Logic: Both teams have yellow in their colors, so the other color will make the difference. Black vs. Green. You know, black is supposed to look slimming but that is a fallacy, I mean you’re either slim or not. And black represents all that is bad – night, darkness, evil, etc. But green, well green is good, really good. Green represents the color of money, which I will get a lot of when the Packers destroy the Steelers. Woo-Hoo!

The gambling over-thought: The line is cleverly placed at 2.5, which is not only an enticement to take the Packers for the bettors but also boxes the books into a corner since they cannot respond to heavy Packer action with anything more than an adjustment of the juice (for the squares – adding to the 10% commission you have to pay to take the Packers). If they move the game to Packers -3, they open up the possibility of a middle (Packers win by 3 and cover the 2.5 while Steelers bettors push). And nobody wants to see the flood of tears coming from the sports books if they get middled – woe is them.

So with that in mind, the logical play is the Steelers, given the overwhelming action is on Green Bay and we know that the bookies rarely lose Super Bowls.

That’s logically, here is the over-thought – I think the early rush of money being on Green Bay actually pushes late money to Pittsburgh. And without a doubt more money is bet late than early. Plus, you have to figure that most of the Pennsylvania coal miners just got paid at the end of the month, so after alcohol and cigarettes are purchased for the week, the rest is heading to the bookie on the Steelers.

It’s better to be lucky than good: Quickly, football fans tell me the last gut-wrenching, stomach punch, kick to the nut-sack loss the Steelers have endured. Give up? There haven’t been many. Maybe the 1994 AFC Championship game against the Chargers could be considered a kick to the groin. But that wasn’t because the Chargers got some extraordinary good fortune, the Steelers just crapped their pants.

Now tell me how many times the Steelers have been on the winning side of another team’s stomach punch loss. Too many to list but here are a few:

• The Immaculate Reception – quite possibly the luckiest play in the history of, well history. And common thought amongst Steelers history buffs is that this play turned the franchise around, thus laying the ground work for the four Super Bowls in 70s.
• Super Bowl X – Lynn Swann’s catch after tripping over a defender; no doubt this was a great play by a great athlete, but come on how many times does that happen – not many since or prior.
• Super Bowl XIII – The Cowboys tight end Jackie Smith drops a sure touchdown forcing the Cowboys to settle for a field goal – Steelers win by four.
• Super Bowl XIV – The 75 yard touchdown pass to Stallworth against the Rams; Rams DB Eddie Brown was a millimeter away from knocking the ball away. Those type of plays never go against the Steelers.
• 2005 AFC Divisional playoff – against the Colts, it finally appears as though the worm has turned against the Steelers, when “the Bus” fumbles on the goal-line and the ball is scooped up by Colts DB Kelvin Hayden who despite having miles and miles of free space towards the sideline decides to cut back inside allowing the three-toed sloth Roelisberger to tackle him. Vander-Choke misses the tying field goal and the rest is history (by the way, has there ever been a worse miss of a field goal in a key situation, I mean outside of those halftime contests where they pull some drunk fan out of the stands).
• Super Bowl XXXIX – The officiating was brutal and clearly favored the Steelers, but how about the key drops by Jerramy Stevens? Choke? Sure, but doesn’t seem like players always choke against the Steelers?
• Super Bowl XLII – The James Harrison 101 yard interception return. Unbelievable! Oh and let’s not forget the once in a lifetime pass/catch from Roethlisberger to Holmes.
• 2010 AFC Playoffs – The Ravens win the game they take a knee for every possession in the second half; instead they turn the ball over twice deep in their own territory. IF we had the ability to extend the AFC championship five minutes, the Jets are in the Super Bowl.

It’s tough to go against a team with a history of “supernatural” events constantly happening in their favor.

Foreshadowing: As I am writing, “America’s game” is on NFL Network, featuring the 1996 Green Bay Packers. Though I was only paying a cursory amount of attention, I happen to catch the following two things – first, in the 1996 pre-season they show a clip of Desmond Howard returning a punt for a touchdown. The opponent? The Steelers. The other thing was they mentioned that the Packers were decimated by injuries that season. Hmmm, very interesssting!

Logic: It’s quite simple – the Packers are the better team! And they pose a matchup nightmare for the Steelers. In fact, the only scenario I see where the Steelers win this game is one where they knock Rodgers out of the game. And I simply cannot back a team based on some random play.

Plus, rumor has it that if the Packers win this game they will rename Brett Favre Pass to Aaron Rodgers Way. But no worries, Brett, the Packers intend to move Brett Favre Pass to a 500 yard walkway that leads from the tailgate area lot to the port-a-potties!

Pick: Green Bay -2.5

Bonus Pick #1: Under 44.5

Bonus Pick #2: Green Bay -2.0 1^st half

Bonus Pick #3: Pittsburgh in the 2^nd half

CaveKid’s Pick – Pittsburgh +2.5, “This has been a long eight weeks of the Caveman riding me every Thursday to get “my picks to him”. It hasn’t been easy! Since I am one game behind going into the Super Bowl, I am forced to take the Steelers just to tie. I hate the Steelers so much that it is not funny. I honestly think that the Packers win this game. Both teams have momentum and confidence, so it could go either way. Hopefully, Worthlessburger will step up and play a great game! See you next when I demonstrate my dominance over a full year.”

Me – Worthlessburger, sounds a like bad name for a fast food restaurant.