2010 NFL Week 19 Picks – Divisional Round

Caveman’s quick picks for the divisional playoff round.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs: 2-2

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 3-1 (I gouge my eyes out with a baking mixer, if this kid rolls off 8+ wins this playoff season. At some point this post-season I might just have to give in by jumping on the band wagon and using her picks.)

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)

A Cavaekid-like Elementary Logic: Have you ever seen a Raven fly into a Steel wall? Exactly!

Gambling Over Thought: The spread is three, the game is likely to be a three point game (five of the last seven meetings have been three point games), therefore, the best value is the Ravens. Assuming the game ends on three, playing the Ravens yields a worst-case push, while playing the Steelers yields a best-case push. One more over-thought – several books have moved this number to 3.5, meaning they are trying to entice Raven action.

Logic: The Steelers come into this game with several advantages – they’re as healthy as they have been all year; they’re rested; at home; their best offensive player (Mike Wallace) will cause matchup problems for the Ravens; and the Steelers defensive strength is against the running game, which neutralizes the Ravens best player, Ray Rice.

Caveat: The Steelers offensive line is not good. I am a little nervous that the Ravens will get some cheap points on a sack/fumble return or tipped pass interception return. A bettor cannot play a random play that, but it is in the back of my mind.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Baltimore +3, “I think that they can bust out a win again and I really don’t want the Steelers to win another Superbowl.”

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: The Packers are the home of the CheeseHeads, I love cheese!

Gambling Over Thought: I think we might have a bit of reverse hype on this game. Initially, there was so much Green Bay love that I think the Falcons actually became the public’s choice. Therefore the play is the Packers.

Logic: The week 12 game between these two teams essentially came down to three things – 1. The Packers inability to run the ball, which forced them to get cute inside the Falcon five with a back-to-back Aaron Rodgers sneaks, where he fumbled away the ball; 2. Mike McCarthy’s refusal to challenge a fourth down catch by Tony Gonzalez on a drive that culminated in a Falcon touchdown; and 3. The Packers shoddy kickoff coverage after tying the game, coupled with an unlucky facemask penalty that set the Falcons up in field goal range. Sum it up – the Packers are the better team.

Caveat: Betting on Mike McCarthy in a playoff game is a scary proposition, but he had the team ready to play last week. If he can avoid egregious clock management mistakes, the Packers should be fine.

Pick: Green Bay +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Atlanta -2.5, “I think that the Falcons will come out with this win and it will help them even more having support from their crowd.”

Seattle @ Chicago (-10.0)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: I love bears, but I think a Seahawk is like a shark that can fly. If that is the case then I think a Seahawk is the choice, since it would be able to fly in and take chunks out of the bear.

Gambling Over Thought: The Seahawks are just happy to have won a playoff game, they’re physically and emotionally spent. Just ask the 2008 Cardinals.

Logic: The week 12 game between these two teams, where the Seahawks won rather handedly, wasn’t a fluke. In fact, I think it could be argued that the game shouldn’t have been that close. The interesting thing about the Seahawks is that as a whole they’re a terrible football team, but they match-up well against a few teams. And when they match-up real, they actually look decent – the Bears are one of those teams.

Caveat: I turn in late to witness the Bears up 14-0, all that “logic” above is out the window.

Pick: Seattle +10.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Seattle +10, “I don’t think that the Bears can win by 10. I like the Bears but I think Seattle will keep the game close.”

NY Jets @ New England (-9.0)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: The Jets are green which is the color of money; the Patriots are red which is the color of blood – ’nuff said!

Gambling Over Thought: The 5.5 points the game has moved since it was played in week 13 is crazy. I trust that the three point spread for the week 13 game was a true representation of the relative strength of the teams. Now, I am supposed to buy into the numbers have varied by 5.5 over the last six weeks. No way, this line is a exaggeration based on the odds-makers knowing the public. Great value on the Jets.

Logic: It is very tough to erase that whooping the Pats gave the Jets. And you need a Quaalude to trust Mark Sanchez with your hard earned money. Those two things aside, the Jets are a comparable team, with enough talent to not only compete in this game, but also win outright. Getting nine points is a steal.

Caveat: The Patriots would enough more than to embarrass the Jets, so that means garbage time touchdown (always a fan favorite of the underdog bettor) will be tougher to come by.

Pick: NY Jets +9.0

CaveKid’s Pick: New York Jets +9, “The Jets totally blew the patriots out last time so I think that they will win again or lose by very little points.”

Me: I guess she is right if she is referring to the week 2 matchup.

 

Advertisement