2010 NFL Week 19 – Conference Championship Edition

Finally, finally Caveman exhibited his dominance over CaveKid in the Divisional playoff round. Thank you very much I posted a 3-1 record, while CaveKid found the rough and crawled to a 1-3 record. I am in full control of the second season. And just like the NFL, I would much rather be successful in the playoffs than the regular season.

It’s time to jump on the Caveman bandwagon. Well, that is if you want to end the season with three wins.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs: 5-3 (Last week 3-1)

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 4-4 (Last week 1-3)

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago

A Cavaekid-like Elementary Logic: Bears are supposed to be hibernating at this time of year. And did you know that before a bear hibernates, they will eat a bunch of moss, bark and other material to prevent themselves from defecating during hibernation. Yea, that’s right they eat enough indigestible material to form a butt plug. Imagine the amount of feces that builds up during hibernation, it’s safe to assume you don’t want to be around when the bear appears and drops a deuce. Now given all that, can you really pick the Bears? At this time of year? No way!

Celebrity Pick of the Week: Early in the week news broke that Brett Favre picked the Packers, to which I immediately thought “nice try to reverse jinx the Packers, Brett”, but you know what I think Brett is actually trying to make nice with the Packers fan base. I think he realizes that he doesn’t want to turn out like Roger Clemens, who has backing from, count’em, zero fan bases. The Red Sox fans hate him, the Yankees fans never bought into him and have subsequently disowned him. Favre is in a similar position, in that the Packers fans have turned, viciously, on him. He can either be abandoned like the Riggins boys or start a political campaign to get back in the good graces with the Cheeseheads.

Look I’ve ripped since he started this ridiculous pre-season pattern of “no-yes-maybe-yes-no-no-yes”. He also hasn’t put it out on the field as he has destroyed two seasons with poor play and ended two other seasons with “ice pick to the scrotum” interceptions. Then there is the assuming, inappropriate text messages sent to an employee of the team (in fairness who hasn’t sent pictures of their junk to a cute co-worker). Favre’s turned into a parody of himself and pretty much needs to be in full-on ass-kiss mode to get back in the Packers good graces.

In a vain attempt to trump Favre, President Obama came out with a bold prediction on Wednesday, calling the Bears a lock to win. Hmmm, I’d like to jump on the Obama bandwagon with that pick, but I have a tough time taking this pick serious when Obama has the Elena Kagan pick on his resume.

Gambling Over Thought: I am not sure this is an over-thought, but the spread is way too high for teams this close. And the public is jumping all over the Packers. I feel compelled to bring out the 2000 and 2008 NFC Championship games, where two 3.5 point home team underdogs won outright (Giants and Cardinals).

Logic: The Bears are as good as the Packers. They beat them at home earlier in the year, then with the Packers season on the line the Bears gave the Pack all they could handle. In addition, I’ve seen fields in South Central LA in better shape than the turf at Soldier Field. That is a major problem for the Packers, since they’re the faster, more athletic team.

Caveat: Jay Cutler gets picked on the Bears first two possessions, giving the Packers an early lead and taking the crowd out of the game. The Bears are not equipped to play from

Pick: Chicago +3.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Chicago +3.5, “The Bears will defiantly win this one straight up. The Bears defense will shut the Packers down and ultimately score more points.”

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: Big Ben plays quarterback for the Steelers, but Big Ben is also a clock in London. A clock against an advanced machine like a Jet, not close!

Celebrity Pick of the Week: I sampled a ton of predictions on this game, the recurring theme was the Steelers by 4 points. However, there was one pick by a D-List celebrity that caught my eye. Craig “the Milk” Carton, a shock-jock from NY, picked the Jets to win 23-0. Hopefully, he didn’t bet another walk across the Brooklyn Bridge in a Speedo.

Gambling Over Thought: Consider the following – The Steelers did not have Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller available for their week 15 game against the Jets; both are playing this weekend; the Jets returned a kickoff for a touchdown and recorded a safety (the worst offensive play call of the 2010 NFL season), both of those events tend to be random. Given those factors – how does this line go from 5.5 in week 15 to 3.5 this week? Let’s throw in the Jets coming off the second biggest win in their history with the high likelihood of a letdown and how is this line not something like 6 or even 7?

Logic: Polamalu makes a huge difference for the Steelers; much is being made of the Jets beating Manning and Brady in consecutive weeks, but those two are statuesque compared with Roethlisberger, who’s ability to extend plays will give the Jets big problems. Plus, I will buy slightly into the Jets letdown theory. And finally, it’s the Jets, man, the Jets! They wouldn’t be the Jets if they won games like this.

Caveat: If the Steelers fall behind 21-7, the Jets will not bail them out with poor play-calling like the Ravens did.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5, “The Steelers are out for revenge this time around. Having home field advantage will help them win too.”


 

2010 NFL Week 19 Picks – Divisional Round

Caveman’s quick picks for the divisional playoff round.

The lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

2010 Playoffs: 2-2

CaveKid’s 2010 Playoffs: 3-1 (I gouge my eyes out with a baking mixer, if this kid rolls off 8+ wins this playoff season. At some point this post-season I might just have to give in by jumping on the band wagon and using her picks.)

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)

A Cavaekid-like Elementary Logic: Have you ever seen a Raven fly into a Steel wall? Exactly!

Gambling Over Thought: The spread is three, the game is likely to be a three point game (five of the last seven meetings have been three point games), therefore, the best value is the Ravens. Assuming the game ends on three, playing the Ravens yields a worst-case push, while playing the Steelers yields a best-case push. One more over-thought – several books have moved this number to 3.5, meaning they are trying to entice Raven action.

Logic: The Steelers come into this game with several advantages – they’re as healthy as they have been all year; they’re rested; at home; their best offensive player (Mike Wallace) will cause matchup problems for the Ravens; and the Steelers defensive strength is against the running game, which neutralizes the Ravens best player, Ray Rice.

Caveat: The Steelers offensive line is not good. I am a little nervous that the Ravens will get some cheap points on a sack/fumble return or tipped pass interception return. A bettor cannot play a random play that, but it is in the back of my mind.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Baltimore +3, “I think that they can bust out a win again and I really don’t want the Steelers to win another Superbowl.”

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: The Packers are the home of the CheeseHeads, I love cheese!

Gambling Over Thought: I think we might have a bit of reverse hype on this game. Initially, there was so much Green Bay love that I think the Falcons actually became the public’s choice. Therefore the play is the Packers.

Logic: The week 12 game between these two teams essentially came down to three things – 1. The Packers inability to run the ball, which forced them to get cute inside the Falcon five with a back-to-back Aaron Rodgers sneaks, where he fumbled away the ball; 2. Mike McCarthy’s refusal to challenge a fourth down catch by Tony Gonzalez on a drive that culminated in a Falcon touchdown; and 3. The Packers shoddy kickoff coverage after tying the game, coupled with an unlucky facemask penalty that set the Falcons up in field goal range. Sum it up – the Packers are the better team.

Caveat: Betting on Mike McCarthy in a playoff game is a scary proposition, but he had the team ready to play last week. If he can avoid egregious clock management mistakes, the Packers should be fine.

Pick: Green Bay +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Atlanta -2.5, “I think that the Falcons will come out with this win and it will help them even more having support from their crowd.”

Seattle @ Chicago (-10.0)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: I love bears, but I think a Seahawk is like a shark that can fly. If that is the case then I think a Seahawk is the choice, since it would be able to fly in and take chunks out of the bear.

Gambling Over Thought: The Seahawks are just happy to have won a playoff game, they’re physically and emotionally spent. Just ask the 2008 Cardinals.

Logic: The week 12 game between these two teams, where the Seahawks won rather handedly, wasn’t a fluke. In fact, I think it could be argued that the game shouldn’t have been that close. The interesting thing about the Seahawks is that as a whole they’re a terrible football team, but they match-up well against a few teams. And when they match-up real, they actually look decent – the Bears are one of those teams.

Caveat: I turn in late to witness the Bears up 14-0, all that “logic” above is out the window.

Pick: Seattle +10.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Seattle +10, “I don’t think that the Bears can win by 10. I like the Bears but I think Seattle will keep the game close.”

NY Jets @ New England (-9.0)

Cavekid’s Elementary Logic: The Jets are green which is the color of money; the Patriots are red which is the color of blood – ’nuff said!

Gambling Over Thought: The 5.5 points the game has moved since it was played in week 13 is crazy. I trust that the three point spread for the week 13 game was a true representation of the relative strength of the teams. Now, I am supposed to buy into the numbers have varied by 5.5 over the last six weeks. No way, this line is a exaggeration based on the odds-makers knowing the public. Great value on the Jets.

Logic: It is very tough to erase that whooping the Pats gave the Jets. And you need a Quaalude to trust Mark Sanchez with your hard earned money. Those two things aside, the Jets are a comparable team, with enough talent to not only compete in this game, but also win outright. Getting nine points is a steal.

Caveat: The Patriots would enough more than to embarrass the Jets, so that means garbage time touchdown (always a fan favorite of the underdog bettor) will be tougher to come by.

Pick: NY Jets +9.0

CaveKid’s Pick: New York Jets +9, “The Jets totally blew the patriots out last time so I think that they will win again or lose by very little points.”

Me: I guess she is right if she is referring to the week 2 matchup.

 

2010 NFL Wildcard Saturday Running Log

What better way to celebrate Wildcard weekend than with a running log for opening day of the 2011 playoffs. We are here live from Buffalo Wild Wings. Bring on the hot wings and hopefully some interesting games! To recap, yours truly has the Saints -10 and the Jets +2.5.

The early Saturday game always seems anticlimactic for the loser, like did you really make the playoffs? It’s over before it began, such as life for the Seahawks!

I have a few sweet over/under plays for this game:

Number of screen passes by the Saints – 24.5. Give me the “over”, since I know Sean Payton is the screen master, in fact you can attend a week long “How Screen your way to Success” convention that features Sean Payton as the keynote speaker.

Time elapsed before Matty “IceBag” Hasselbeck pulls up with an “old man” injury, like a pulled glute or quad, 21 minutes. So that’s second quarter with 9 minutes left. Give me the under, I say it happens on the first possession, actually on the first snap when he turns too quickly to hand off.

Number of times NBC shows the “12th Man” flag – 4.5. Since I took the Saints to win easily, my guess is the “12th Man” will collectively be passed out drunk by halftime.

And word has it that Guinness is on hand for a potential record. They are measuring the number of chews of gum per minute by Pete Carroll, the current record is 189, but Carroll has been “clocked” at over 250.

On to the log:

2:36 PM – Saints get the ball first hopefully the first three series of this game go something like (in terms of plays-yards) 6-75, 3-2, 5-70. That should put the Saints up 14-0 en route to a 41-10 romp.

2:38 PM – Well, the first three plays look a lot like West Dillon Lions in their first game – BING, BING, BING and the Saints are at the Lions, ah, Seahawks 20 – any chance Pete Carroll comes out at halftime to forfeit the game?

2:40 PM – Coming soon to a theater near you, REGGIE BUSH in the COVER-KILLAH!! Nice drop Reggie. I miss Pierre, plus without him, we miss the full day of “Nice Job, Pierre” (from the old Miller High Life commercial). 3-0 Saints, 10 point spreads don’t get covered with field goals, fellas!

2:45 PM – Three plays and, literally, out for the Seahawks – with the third play an interception by Jabari Greer – right about now NBC is trying to figure out creative ways to keep this game interesting. Saints need to drive 35 yards to tie the “game within the game” (the spread)

2:47 PM – Reggie Bush atones with a powerful burst for a first down, he was moving like he was being chased by the NCAA recruiting police.

2:51 PM – Wow, huge pass interference call against the Seahawks to keep the Saints from another FG. You figure if the Seahawks come out of this possession only down 6-0, they will start to feel like they can compete, which is very bad news for a Saints cover.

2:53 PM – Scratch that last part as the Saints use 8 plays to go 30 yards for the touchdown – 10-0 Saints, looks like Pete Carroll forgot to close the barn door. Sometimes the odds-makers take it in the caboose like the rest of us.

2:57 PM – What is with the Saints pooch kicking the ball? So, the Seahawks have now started at their own 37 and 43, respectively. So, why not just kick the ball out of bounds? You’re that scared of Leon Washington? Leon Washington? Just play football, Sean Payton! You have the better team; you don’t need to get cute.

3:01 PM – My prediction as of the game status right now – no cover for the Saints, the Seahawks are moving the ball too well on this possession, which means that unless they implode on defense they should be within garbage TD of covering the spread the entire game. And based on what I am seeing from the Saints defense there is no way I trust them to keep Seattle from scoring if they’re up, say 16 points or so.

3:04 PM – That might have been the best defensive series of the season for the Saints – NOT! I think the Seahawks scout defense would have been tougher than the Saints right there. 10-7 Saints. Is there a more over-rated defensive coordinator than Greg Williams? The alleged master of blitz schemes – whatever! And he was a terrible head coach as well, plus he looks like that heel of human, Jon Voigt.

3:06 PM – You really have to question whether or not Sean Payton has the Saints ready to play today. They don’t look motivated to continue their season. I get it that you cannot yell and scream at NFL players to motivate them, but wouldn’t an adequate pre-game motivational speech in this situation be something like this – “Listen, gentlemen, we’re on the cusp of doing something that only six teams in this league have been able to do. Win back-to-back Super Bowls! If I mention the New England Patriots, you immediately think about multiple rings, right? But if I mention the St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Baltimore Ravens, you first question whether they’ve even won a Super Bowl. Now the difference between the Patriots and the Rams is the Patriots never took anything for granted, they were able to focus in games where they were the prohibitive favorite. Now my question for you is simple, do you want to be the forgettable Rams or a dynasty like the Patriots? Show me today, right here and right now in this place that you want to be the PATRIOTS!” If Payton gives that type of speech, the Saints are up 21-0 right now. Of course, coming up with that speech, would require Payton to give up time developing screen passes.

3:15 PM – We just got into a nice discussion, while the Saints are methodically moving down the field to hopefully score a touchdown, about the potential apocalypse of professional sports. My buddy, Rubi, told us that the Phoenix Suns player representative is telling the players to expect to go the entire next season without a pay-check. Throw in the NFL’s labor unrest and who would have thunk that MLB would be looking like the only league that cares about the fans.

3:18 PM – Huge 3rd and 4 from the Seahawk 4 for the Saints; at least in terms of covering the spread, I still have no doubt the Saints will win this game. We have a Julius Jones sighting, which is rarer than a UFO sighting. 17-7 Saints.

3:19 PM – We’re on the verge of the apocalypse of Wildcard Weekend at BWW, the talked has turned from sports to music, with my buddy talking about the time he went to the Joe Jackson concert. My first thought was – is that what Joe Jackson did after he was kicked out of baseball? Wait, he wouldn’t be old enough to have seen that Joe Jackson in concert. Then, I thought, hmm, the Boz Scaggs comeback tour concert must have been sold out.

3:21 PM – The Saints finally send a kickoff deep, which they cover like they were getting paid, albeit minimum wage, to play this game. The Seahawks start from their own 30. Ok, enough jacking around, Nawlens, let’s take this game over, right now.

3:24 PM – Wow, the Saints defense is brutal – 12 yards, 6 yards and pass interference that sets the Seahawks up in Saints territory.

3:28 PM – Touchdown, Seahawks, on maybe the worst looking pass every thrown. It looked more like a punt, but the Seahawk receiver was wide open after the Saints safety, Roman Harper, got lost trying to cover him. That was so bad that Harper would be the target of any Sunday morning pick-up between a bunch of 40+ guys trying to relive their high school glory. I can picture it now, “OK, guys listen – whomever Harper is on, just run an out and up every time – it’s like gold, ready, break!” Oh, the receiver, a tight end no less, stepped out of bounds. The Saints have to force a field goal right here.

3:31 PM – Touchdown, Seahawks on the “tight end belly flop, then get up and be wide open for a touchdown play.” That play was awesome when Mark Bavaro first did it, back in 1989! I didn’t realize it was still around considering it hasn’t worked since 1989, but I guess with Roman Harper all things are possible.

3:36 PM – Three and out for the Saints. And the punter just got creamed, no call as the Seahawk player was blocked into him. Saints lead will expire in TMinus-3 minutes!

3:38 PM – Maybe, just maybe the Saints are getting a grip – the Seahawks go three and out.

3:40 PM – Unbelievable, Roman Harper (Julius Jones) just fumbled the ball back to the Seahawks. Ok, it wasn’t Harper, but I fell I am going to blame everything on him.

3:41 PM – Five minutes! That is the answer to the question, “How long before the Saints lose the lead?” At least the Saints bowed their neck and held them to a field goal.

3:45 PM – Remember 52 minutes when it looked like the Saints were going to run away with this game. That was fun! Now I just broke the news to the table that the Saints are not covering this game. My buddy told me, “This game is going to be a blowout!” I told him, “I think the Saints can keep it close!”

3:46 PM – Any chance Sean Payton gets fired if the Saints lose this game? Or is that just an irrational, over-reaction by a disgruntled bettor?

3:49 PM – I have mentioned how over-rated Greg Williams is as a defensive coordinator

3:55 PM – Two minutes to play, Seattle is at the 50. Can the Saints hang on to a tie at the half?

3:58 PM – Coming soon to a New Orleans area Super Market – Roman Harper bagging groceries. Question – would the Manager of a Supermarket in New Orleans hire Roman Harper? Hmm, I doubt it. Actually, I am surprised that Harper has dropped with a piercing pain in his right quad. It be because it takes longer than a half to construct a doll-sized, likeness of Harper.

4:02 PM – I am looking forward to the Seahawks representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

4:05 PM – Some young kid is going to attempt the “Blazin’ Challenge” (Eat a dozen wings with Wild Wings signature “Blazin” sauce, in 6 minutes, without wiping your face or drinking anything), which is way more interesting than this game. Someone asks, “What’s he get?” The waitress tells us “A t-shirt”, that and a complementary bottle of Imodium A-D. Good luck, Pal. Wow, the kid threw down the dozen in about two minutes. The real blazin’ challenge should be on the other end, when it comes out; to truly accomplish the feat you should have to agree not to use toilet paper after your next few BM’s.

4:10 PM – Oh, yea, it is halftime Saints trailing 24-20. The halftime table talk is about the second half line. We agree that it should be Saints -7.5, meaning the Saints would have to win by 4 to cover the second half number. Those tricky odds-makers post the number at 7, meaning that a bettor feels much more comfortable betting the Saints knowing they only have to win by three points. Hmm, maybe the bookies aren’t really scared of the Saints winning this game, though I am still convinced the Saints win this game.

4:18 PM – Time for a lunch break. The great thing about heading out to watch a full day of football is planning the meals, since you’re likely to grab at least two meals. I decide on a wrap now, then wings later.

4:31 PM – I just puked up my wrap, as I watched Darren Sharper get beat on another Seahawk touchdown. I guess Sharper felt bad for Roman Harper, so he figured he would show some mercy by giving up a touchdown as well. My question for Greg Williams – how did your safeties continually allow the Seahawk wide receivers to get behind them? Think about that for a minute – getting beat on the outside or side-to-side happens when the quarterback fakes one way or the safety is too laterally slow, but how does a safety get into a “chase” position? Poor technique, that’s how! Just terrible, terrible play by the Saints. For those scoring at home the Seahawks are now up 31-20.

4:35 PM – For the Saints to entertain any thoughts of winning this game the offense has to go into “perfect” mode meaning they have to end every drive with points from this point forward.

4:40 PM – So much for that – Saints punt! For the first time today, I am thinking the Saints might not win this game. I know, I know, I am not the sharpest tool in the shed.

4:46 PM – Brutal drop by the Seahawks receiver O-BEE-MAN-KAN-NOBU, but the Seahawks manage to get into field goal range and they convert – where is the Olindo Mare who misses 34 yard field goals? 34-20 Seahawks

4:53 PM – 4th and an inch for the Saints – this is, literally, the whole season right here. And the Saints do exactly what I would do on 4th and inches run a deep handoff, you know, because a deep handoff allows the defense to get some penetration and that in turn allows, hey, wait a minute what a stupid &*@^%$~ play call!

4:58 PM – Another drop by the Seahawks forces them to punt; so the Hawks could have put this game out of reach, but they keep forgetting to kill the bad guy.

5:10 PM – Uh no, a personal foul on the Seahawks sets the Saints up deep in Seattle territory. That might this games equivalent to the horrible holding call against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl – aka the point where the game turned.

5:11 PM – Yep, the Saints score and all of a sudden it’s just a 7 point lead. Smart money right now is on the Saints winning this in overtime. Plus, we get the added bonus of seeing the first game of the playoffs with the new overtime rules that were implemented just for the playoffs. I love the “make the rules up as we go” with a professional sports league. That would be like the NBA adopting a four point play just for the playoffs or MLB declaring that one player can re-enter a game at anytime. 34-27 Hawks.

5:16 PM – I went to the can and missed the Seahawks possession. Three plays that burned 3100 milliseconds off the clock. Keep it up Seattle and the Saints are likely to cover the 10 points. I mean really keep it up!

5:20 PM – Peter Carroll is gripping hard on the sideline – as the Saints only need a play to get into the RedZone! It’s safe to assume that a touchdown here and the Seahawks are done.

5:25 PM – So, I’m obviously not a coach, but I love playing one and truly believe that I could be a better job than at least half of the “32″ – but when you call a quick, outside screen pass to a wide receiver you have to have a receiver that is willing to go “Anquan Boldin” on the defense, right? Or at a minimum at least go “Wes Welker” on them. Is there any way Welker or Boldin do not at least get the three yards for a first down in that same spot. And somehow, someway that has to be communicated to the receiver like – “Listen, if we call this play on the goalline, no juking, dancing or stutter stepping, just tuck your head and get the eff up the field.” Well, Devery Henderson, who is the last guy on the Saints I would throw that type of pass, either didn’t get the message or didn’t retain the message. Either of which falls on the coach – nice job, Payton! Now the Saints are in a do or die 4th down and 2.

5:28 PM – Really, Payton, really? Sean decides to settle for a field goal, down 7, so the Saints still need a touchdown – that is a horrible decision on every continent, in every universe. Why? It’s so simple. We have an infallible way to test whether a decision is a good or not – ask a fan of the opposing team what they think? Hey, Seahawk fan, would you rather the Saints go for the touchdown or kick a FG? Answer – “I am happy they still have the lead!”

It’s a simple, it’s about emotion – and the Seahawks are about out of their supply, especially if the game gets tied the game here. The Seahawks have had an atrocious seven minutes, where they have gone from “we are definitely winning” to “why isn’t the clock moving”, if they esacpe that nightmare with a lead, it recharge’s their batteries.

Any human being with an average amount of competitiveness will tell you the same thing – it’s not about the smart play or the play that will get you less roasted in the media, it’s about reading the situation – you had to tie the game there, period!

5:32 PM – Did I mention what a dumb move it was to kick the field goal from the three yard line? The Seahawks convert another third down, enabling them to burn more clock!

5:35 PM – If the Saints give up this 3&17, I will chug a 24 ounce glass of Blazin’ sauce! My intestines thank you for making the stop Saints – the Saints get the ball back with a chance to win the game.

5:37 PM – The Saints special teams have sucked about as bad as Roman Harper is this game. A penalty moves the ball back to the 5 yard line – the Saints have 5 minutes and 95 yards to avoid the most embarrassing loss in the history of sports. Check that, the second most embarrassing loss in history, the 2004 Yankees cannot be topped.

5:41 PM – And the hits keep on coming – the Saints burn their second timeout with the clock stopped. Great job, Payton! I get it it’s a bad day at the office – but imagine if a heart surgeon had an equally bad day, any chance the patient is alive?

5:43 PM – Its punt time, so one timeout and the 2 minute warning meaning the Seahawks need two first downs to close out the pretending Super Bowl champs.

5:45 PM – “Got off of me, Bitch!” Yikes, Marshawn Lynch just ran through the entire Saints defense for a 67-yard EFF YOU touchdown. The best part was the Ike Turner-esque throw-down of Tracy (aptly named) Porter. So, Mr. Super Bowl Hero is now Mr. I got my ass kicked by Marshawn Lynch. Oh and guess who missed the final tackle, yep, Roman Harper!

5:49 PM – If Greg Williams was a soldier and put up an equivalent effort, he would be beaten with socks that contained bars of soap. Hey, that’s not a bad idea – let’s get him!

5:52 PM – Garbage touchdown for the Saints – Devery Henderson, who shows up now!

5:53 PM – The Saints two point conversion failed as they try to run some guy named Wynn up the middle, Wynn, maybe they should have tried a guy named Loss, or Choke or CrapTheBed.

5:55 PM – Saints on-side kick coming up – what a surprise. And how fitting that it is the worst on-side kick in the history of on-side kicks. Ball game! Saints lose!

6:15 PM – Second game starting soon here are some interesting Over/Unders:

Number of times Rex Ryan gets caught on camera turned toward the training table watching a player, without his sock, getting his ankle taped: 2.5 – Easy money on the over.

Number of times Jim Caldwell is shown on TV that results to a 9-1-1 call reporting a dead guy on TV. 4.5 times

6:17 PM – The Colts get the ball first, if my recent trend of picking losers continues then I expect the Colts to drive 80 yards for a touchdown.

6:19 PM – Three and out for the Colts when they cannot convert after having a 2&1.

6:21 PM – Oh, wow, Jim Caldwell just issued the worst challenge in the history of challenges. I half expected the ref to come back with “After review the play stands as called. Further, because of the reckless use of the challenge, the blatant disregard for NFL resources the Colts will, from this point forward, until further notice be unable to challenge any play, at any time.” Sadly, that would have garnered a standing ovation from the Colts faithful.

6:30 PM – The under is looking like a lock, after the Jets go 5 and out and the Colts fail, again, to convert a 3rd and 1.

6:35 PM – I’ve been on shopping trips with five women (get your mind out of the gutter, family members, man!) that were more exciting than this game. I wish I would’ve bet “OVER” on the number of “3 and outs” in this game. Geesh!

6:42 PM – The Jets have been the better offensive team so far, but they nothing to show for it on the scoreboard.

6:48 PM – After three consecutive “3 and outs”, the Colts have a first down, with 2:19 left in the first quarter. If the remaining three quarters are this bad, I might have to opt for a kick in the balls in lieu of watching the rest of the game. Both are equally painful, but I can recover from the blow to the nuts much faster.

7:00 PM – Unbelievable, some douche bag just beat a guy holding A-A, with an off-suit 7-9, when he flops a straight. Talk about a kick to the nutsack! The Jets/Colts are still 0-0, with 11:00 Minutes left in the second.

7:02 PM – “Kid Drop” just made a great catch. A couple more catches like that will force me to revert to calling him by his given name, Braylon. Plus, we have a new “drop” leader in Dwayne Bowe, who had more drops than ATT wireless this year. Actually, I need a nickname for Bowe that is similar to “Kid Drop”, which worked because Edwards played for the Browns (Cleveland home of the Rock ‘n Roll HOF) and played college in Michigan (“Kid Rock” is from Michigan). Think, man, think – something to do with Kansas City or Louisiana.

7:05 PM – In a game where field position is critical, the Jets just blew a golden opportunity to down the ball on the one. The punter should turn the tables and towel whip that idiot for not downing it on the one.

7:09 PM – I get the feeling the dam is about to break. The Jets have owned the game thus far, but with one play the Colts can seize momentum. Just like that – Garcon blows by the Jets secondary to catch a 60 yard touchdown. 7-0 Colts. Interestingly, that brought no cheering from anyone in the bar. I think everyone is asleep or too busy playing trivia.

7:25 PM – The Jets are attempting to answer with a nice little drive of their own before halftime. UGH! Sanchez with a very “Sunday morning pickup game between a bunch of 40 year old guys reliving their glory days”-esque pass that is picked off. 7-0 Colts at halftime.

7:35 PM – I guess I could attempt to go 0-11 as some sort of reverse Holy Grail. In the middle of my second meal of the day, I came up with a nickname for Bowe – “Louisiana Drop Sauce”. Decent but not great. Hopefully, the hot sauce from the wings, I am devouring, will get the blood flowing back to my brain so I can come up with a better one.

7:48 PM – So, the Jets have a nice start to the second half with a long TD drive. Guess what – they decided to dedicate themselves to the running game. Who knew that keeping the game out of Sanchwez’ hands would work. Nice!

7:56 PM – OK, bold prediction here – if the Jets stop the Colts on this possession, they win the game! Yep, it’s that simple

8:01 PM – Wow, that is why Manning is Manning – he read the defense perfectly and checked into an Addai run, on 3rd and 9 no less, for a first down. I am not sure what is more surprising – that the Jets exposed themselves like that or that Addai was actually able to run 14 yards without collapsing from exhaustion.

8:05 PM – The Colts add a field goal for a 10-7 lead. So the Jets did not stop them, therefore this game is still up for grabs.

8:10 PM – The J E T S are on the move, prompting another bold prediction – if the Jets take the lead, they will win the game! Ok, that might not be a brass balls prediction since the game is headed to the fourth quarter. Oh and I think I came up with the Dwayne Bowe nickname – “The Kansas City Live Drop Exchange”. It’s a peach!

8:12 PM – The Jets are pretty much giving the Colts the Ralph Cifaretto treatment (think of “Ralphie” when he was with Tony Soprano’s sister, Janice, way back!), but an angry, Angerer has had enough as he angrily slams Shonn Greene to the turf for a two yard loss.

8:15 PM – FOUR! We head to the 4th quarter with the Colts leading 10-7. A quick survey of the bar yields maybe eight total football fans (five are at my table). One Jet fan is sitting with a Colt fan, which is complete anarchy and I am trying to coax my Jet friend to go give him the business. The one thing that livens up a boring game is a good bar fight!

8:21 PM – Answer – “The Jets scoring drive”; the question – “What takes 17 plays and 10 minutes?

8:24 PM – Now, the Jets can feel it, it feels soft, so soft, right Rex?

8:27 PM – The Colts surprise running on third down catches the Jets off-guard for the third time in the second half.

8:31 PM – Wow, Antonio Cromartie has looked bad tonight. He just gave up a 3&8, where the game is over if he makes a play. A couple more plays like that would give Cromartie sole title as “the worst DB of the day”.

8:33 PM – The thing about Peyton Machinning is that he lacks the subjectivity to realize when he is being setup. Another 3 & 7, to which Manning sees the same look, checks to an ill-advised run that the Jets eat alive. Field goal to bring the Colts to within 1 – 4 minutes to play.

8:36 PM – This game has turned out to be relatively entertaining, of course, I like it much better because the team I am rooting for is winning.

8:40 PM – Three first downs and the game is O V E R.

8:41 PM – Nice drop Santonio – maybe the 5th round pick was an overpay considering you just cost the Jets the game! Jets are punting – the chances of them getting the ball back with the lead are slim.

8:42 PM – Oh my, the worst play of the year in any sports just happened – #10 on the Colts ran into the kicker, thus giving the Jets a first down. Nice play, #10! In the postgame aftermath, Colts fans will lament #10, literally, because they had no idea the identity of #10. I think Art Schlichter wore #10, bad omen!

8:43 PM – One first down, two to go.

8:46 PM – Third down for the Jets – with the whole season on the line – Mark Sanchez overthrows “Kid Drop”. Nice season, Jets, thanks for playing!

8:53 PM – I swear that Adam Vinatieri will make any kick of any distance in a big spot – he’s like the NFL’s version of Big Shot Robert Horry. Captain clutch nails a 50 yard field goal that I know he would’ve missed short during a random regular season game against the Texans. The good news – barring a defensive touchdown I will break into the win column for the 2011 playoffs. The bad news – I can totally see Freeney coming around the end, knocking the ball loose, scooping it up and running it in for the covering score.

8:55 PM – That settles it – Roman Harper is the WDBOTD (worst defensive back of the day) as Cromartie returnds the kickoff to the Jets 46. OK, 20 yards gives Nick Folk a shot from 51, but realistically the Jets need 35 yards to feel safe with Folk.

8:58 PM – Edwards with a catch and fumble – but he recovers it.

8:59 PM – Santonio Holmes makes a catch that moves the Jets to within field goal range – 51 yards – with 35 seconds to play.

9:01 PM – What are the Jets doing running the ball? They gained a paltry two yards. They also had to burn their final timeout with 29 seconds left. 49 yard field goal from here, for Folk is about a 25% chance. They need yards. Whoa, the Colts called timeout. Quick, someone get Jim Caldwell’s headset, play sheet or even his hat, we need something to send to the Football Bonehead Hall of Fame for calling a timeout on defense, with the clock running. There are only two coaches in America, Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy, that don’t have a problem with that timeout.

9:03 PM – Coming out of their timeout the Colts were able to dial up a coverage scheme that would allow an 18 yard catch on the sideline. See what I mean by the Colts “wanting to die” for weeks, this game was the Friday the 13th, Part 18!

9:05 PM – I am still nervous that Folk will miss a 32 yarder. Yikes, whew, snuck it in. J E T S win, aptly by a foot!

Good night, good night!

NFL Week 18 Picks – Wildcard Weekend

It is redemption time for Caveman, who is licking his wounds after suffering his first losing NFL regular season since 2005. No worries, the second season is upon, the playoffs, a chance to put the last 9 weeks out of my memory (through week 8, I was 20 games over .500, from week 9-17 I was 24 games under .500).

How bad did it get? Bad enough that when I was casually asked who I thought would win the Packers/Eagles game this weekend, I made several points for both teams before finally breaking down in tears and admitting to the person, “Man, I just don’t know!”

And though I extended the SuperCave contest with CaveKid throughout the playoffs – completely dirty pool, I was down nine games, with very little chance to win, so I changed the rules, hey, it worked for David Stern – I was locked out when CaveKid went up 12 games on me last week. So, I added the Pro Bowl, NBA All-Star game and the first 10 picks of the NFL draft to the contest in order to give me a chance. Unfortunately, none of that matters if I cannot find a way to pick some winners in the playoffs.

But the playoffs represent either a way to double-up on a successful season or a second chance for a fledgling Sports investor. So, it’s back to the basics for the Caveman. That’s right my playoff motto is – “If I don’t kill it with my hands, I don’t eat”, so I have my club and homemade spear ready for the bloodletting.

Before we get started, let’s look back at prior playoff experience, called “the playoff rules
to live by”. And based on last year, I have some additions.

  • Don’t overvalue playoff experience – Of course playoff experience is important but in the past five years we have seen Arizona (a franchise with one playoff win in 50 seasons) go the Super Bowl, Norv Turner (Norv Turner!) win three playoff games, Bill Cowher and Tony Dungy win Super Bowls and rookie head coaches winning playoff games (John Harbaugh, Sean Payton and Jim Caldwell). This rule is especially true on the defensive side of the ball, where younger, hungrier defenders are in better physical shape to hold up to the grueling NFL. Veteran players, about now, are praying for a vacation. Along those same lines be wary of teams with a vast amount of playoff mileage, like Baltimore this season. The Ravens have an aging defensive that has played a third of an extra season in the last three years. That has a major impact.
  • Pick the winner – This rule tailed off a bit in 2004-2006, but generally you can count on the winner covering the spread in at least 9 of the 11 games. Last year the winner was 10-1 against the spread. Simple enough, right? If New Orleans can’t lose this weekend, then play them.
  • Remember the public loves betting the favorites – The public, aka as the “Squares”, feel much more comfortable betting the perceived better team or favored team. For that reason, the underdogs can be had at metro Phoenix homes prices, aka great value.
  • Find the ceiling – Draw a comparison between the most recent, best performance for each team. That would generally be each teams ceiling and generally we would expect to see teams come close to their ceiling in the playoffs.

The lines from the Las Vegas Hilton, courtesy of covers.com.

Here is the back of the Caveman player card:

Career Playoff Record (1995-2010): 85-75-5

Wildcard Round: 33-26-1

Divisional Round: 30-28-2

Championship Round: 16-14

Super Bowl: 6-7-2

 

New Orleans (-10) @ Seattle – I invoke the “Don’t pick an underdog unless you truly believe they can win the game” and the “Pick the winner” rules for this game, because there is no way the Seahawks are winning this game. It’s quite simple had the Rams (the Seahawks ceiling game) shown up last Sunday to play football, the Seahawks would be enjoying the 41st consecutive day of rain in the Seattle/Tacoma area by sitting at home watching the Rams battle the Saints. The Saints would have most likely been favored by 7.5 over the Rams. And I would’ve loved the Rams in that game!

The Seabags have no chance to win this game because Sean Payton is not Steve Spagnuolo. Spags convinced himself, his staff and probably the players that the Seahawks were a better team. He coached as though he wanted to keep the game close, hoping to pull it out in the final minutes. Thanks, Spags for the kick in the nuts!

And as luck would have it, we have an awesome, recent history comparison for these two teams that involves each teams ceiling game. The Saints ceiling game was their week 16 win against Atlanta. In week 15 the Seahawks played the Falcons and lost (the Seahawks nine losses were all by 15 or more points, prompting to wonder if can start calling a 15+ point loss a “Seahawk”, instead of Saints destroy the Seahawks, we would Saints Seahawk the Seahawks) by three touchdowns. In week 17, the Seahawks ceiling game came against the Rams, who were inexplicably coached by Radio Kennedy for that game. The Saints played the Rams team, albeit coached by Steve Spagnuolo, in week 14. The results – Seahawks win by 10, Saints win by 18. Pretty close, but when taken into account the coaching discrepancy (from Spags to Radio) and the fact that the Rams game was not the Saints ceiling game I think it’s painfully obvious that the only play on this game is the Saints or pray for a backdoor Seahawks cover.

I am telling you the backdoor won’t be open, I am merely suggesting that I am not risking my shot at immortality (11-0) on the hope that Chas Whitehurst or Matty “IceBag” can muster a late game drive to bring the Seahawks within 10 points.

Pick: New Orleans -10

CaveKid’s Pick: Seattle +10.5, “New Orleans let me down last week. I don’t think that the Saints have what it takes to go all the way this year.”

Me: Look she’s being at this all of four weeks and she is already embittered.

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5) – Once you get past the Peyton Manning doesn’t lose night games, at home, in the playoffs logic, the argument for the Colts gets very thin, I mean Lindsay Lohan life implosion of 2009, thin!

For starters, look at last year when these two teams battled for the AFC title game – the Jets have gotten better, while the Colts, with their massive injuries are worse. That was a game the Jets led at half, but ran out of gas in the second half; could the upgrades the Jets made this season be the difference. Uh, yes!

Let’s also look at the “Manning Theory”, is he really unbeatable, more importantly can Manning really be trusted? Let’s think back to happier times in the past, where betting against Manning was a staple of the playoffs, where we basically planned our entire post-season gambling around betting against Manning? Save for one crazy, everything going perfectly post-season, Manning is still, as Boomer Esiason put it, “the Dan Marino of this generation.” Simply put if the Pats complete a 3rd and 3 in the 4th quarter of the 2006 AFC Championship, Manning has no titles, but a plethora of post-season failure. And last year was no different, as Manning choked on the big stage in the Super Bowl.

Further, the Jets are built to win this year. I got the impression that the Colts were begging to die at the end of the season – please someone win this division so we don’t have to play another game, but essentially won the division by default when Jacksonville pulled a Jacksonville at the end of the season. Even in week 17 the Colts allowed the Titans to be one Kerry Collins fumble away from backing into the playoffs with a loss.

Finally, the odds-makers cleverly posted the number at a very enticing -2.5, begging the public to jump all over the Colts.

Pick: NY Jets +2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Indianapolis -2.5, “Last week I picked the Jags and the Colts ended up beating them and they pulled through.”

Me: Uh, the Jags didn’t play Colts last week! And that, my friends, is the person who beat me by twelve games in a four week mini-contest.

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Kansas City – As late as Thursday I was firmly in the Chiefs camp, for the reasons that they were a solid home team with a great crowd; they could run the ball effectively against anyone, including the Ravens; and they have the dream team coaching staff with a wealth of experience. Plus, I heard the sharps were all-in on Kansas City based on them being a home team underdog. Solid logic, but home team underdogs are right around .500 in the playoffs since the 2000 season, when the underdogs were golden at 4-0. So, the ice was beginning to crack, then I decided to have a conversation with my buddy C-Man, who is a huge Chiefs fan. The last thing I thought I would hear was the following exchange:

Me: “How you feeling about the Ravens?”

C-Man: “Oh, man, did you see how bad we looked against the Raiders? We’re going to get killed by the Ravens.”

Me: “Come on, that game was meaningless. I think they have a real shot to beat the Ravens.”

C-Man: “Nah, I don’t think so. They have lost for so long now that I expect to lose games like this. I wasn’t even born when they won their last big playoff game they won.”

Me: “That’s true. But you’re at home and that place will be rabid.”

C-Man: “I am just happy they hung on to the division. . .”

 

And with those words, I immediately began to re-think my pick. Maybe C-Man doesn’t speak for the majority of Chiefs fans, but my guess is he represents a fair portion of the Chiefs supporters. And I forgot about how historically bad the Chiefs have been at Arrowhead in the playoffs – lost to the Colts as a 14-2 top seed, lost to the Broncos as a 13-3 top seed and lost to the Colts as a 12-4 number two seed. Let’s imagine that something goes bad early, Arrowhead will end up being like a family holiday meal when someone, in the middle of dinner, announces their gay.

 

Throw in these additional factors – Charlie Weis needs to get to Florida to finalize the recruiting class; Dwayne Bowe is sick; the Ravens expectations were they are a Super Bowl team while there is a bit of truth in the feeling that the Chiefs are happy to be in the playoffs; and Matt Cassel is three weeks removed from an appendectomy, three weeks, my guess is he is healed completely but he body has to be wearing down, right? I mean the guy had an appendectomy three weeks ago!

 

Adding it all up – the “injuries”, distractions for the Chiefs trump out the two obvious playoff rules, “when in doubt back the house” (the Ravens are clearly getting the money) and “over-value experience”. If the Chiefs cover this spread, It is as if I am telling the odds-makers, “Thank you! May I have another”, after they have repeatedly swatted me with Dean Wormer’s wooden plank.

 

Pick: Baltimore -3.0

CaveKid’s Pick: Baltimore -3, “Even though they don’t have home field advantage the Ravens defense will dominate this game.”

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2.5) – This week I was perusing Ebay, looking for bandwagon seats. Much to my surprise the supply of Eagles bandwagon seats limitless, while the Packers were in short supply and priced in the Red Sox/Yankee “Monster” seat range. Doesn’t it feel like three weeks ago everyone was anointing the Eagles as the best team in the NFC? And now I have heard more than a few “experts” proclaiming that the Packers will be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.

 

Hmmm, that’s quite praise for a team that needed a once in a lifetime comeback (Eagles over Giants) just to have a chance to make the playoffs. After destroying the lifeless Giants, the Packers needed only to beat a Bears team with absolutely nothing to play for. The Packers barely escaped with a win. I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves here.

 

This definitely falls into the “hype machine” and “side with house” rules, but here are two other rules favoring the Eagles – 1. “Never back a shaky quarterback on the road”, I realize Rodgers is all-world, but as we have found out with several players once you sustain a concussion you’re more susceptible to sustaining additional concussions, therefore Rodgers is one moderate hit away from Matt Flynn taking snaps on Sunday. And believe the last thing you want to see if you tune in late to the game is Matt Flynn playing quarterback. Just flush your money down the drain.; and 2. “Coaching is magnified”, I do not trust Mike McCarthy one bit. Whether it’s botched clock management or pig-headed stubbornness that causes him to stick to an ineffective game plan, McCarthy has yet to prove he can take care of business in a road playoff game. I know that Andy Reid struggles with game management as well, but McCarthy basically null and voids that would be advantage.

 

Need more proof that the Eagles are the lock of the weekend? I offer up the additional supporting evidence –a. History – the Andy Reid Eagles are traditionally excellent in the first round of the playoffs especially at home; b. The Packers cannot put teams away because they have no running game; and c. It never ends well for over-hyped teams that need a miracle to make the playoffs. A perfect example would be the 2000 Rams, who got a Christmas day miracle when the Bears (9 point underdog) upset the Lions in Detroit. All of a sudden the pundits were talking about how the Rams were headed back to the Super Bowl because they posed the most problems for the top two seeds, the NY Giants (their opponent in round 2) and Minnesota (their likely opponent in the NFC Championship). Problem was, the Rams had to get by the Saints. And as my good buddy Winston Wolf proclaimed, “The Rams started sucking on each other’s lollipops a little early.” (Or something like that)!

 

Pick: Philadelphia -2.5

CaveKid’s Pick: Green bay +2.5, “They’ve beat Philly before and they will defiantly do it again. It doesn’t matter if I’m right because I’ve already taken down Caveman!”

Me: CaveKid should watch the movie “The Great Santini”, I am like Robert Duvall’s character, this contest isn’t going to end until I WIN!

Bonus Pick – Oregon +2 over Auburn. Oregon is fast. I know, I know Auburn is big and fast, but here is the deal – I don’t think Auburn will be prepared for the pace at which Oregon plays. Plus, Cam Newton, post-Heisman banquet circuit, will look like Jamarcus Russell, the 380 pound version!

NFL Week 17 Picks – Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!

I love the all-division games for week 17. In honor of that I am doing a quick pick, with a 2010 lasting impression for each team and a recap of my pre-season prediction.

Also, I have some good news the SuperCave contest has been extended through the playoffs (when I create the contest, I can change the rules to fit my needs, which loosely translated means I am getting drilled by CaveKid).

Season Totals: 115-119-6 (.500) (6-10 last week)

LHSC: 35-43-2 (294th) (3-2 last week)

SuperCave Contest Standings

G-Dub 38-26
CaveKid 36-28
Caveman 27-37

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from covers.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set early and held like a parlay card.

And this week the SuperContest lines are crazy due to the late information, so here are my week 17 picks: Green Bay -6.5, Dallas +12.0, Houston +2.5, New England -3.0 and St. Louis -3.0

NFC SOUTH

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Carolina: 10-6 (Second NFC South, loss in wildcard game) – Whoops! Somehow I thought this team had some talent and losing Jake Delhomme would be such a huge upgrade that could grab at least two more wins.

Atlanta: 9-7 (Third in NFC South) – I thought before the season they were a solid, but forgettable team.

2010 Lasting impression:

Carolina: The turd Matt Moore laid in game one against the Giants. Moore threw two terrible interceptions in the red zone against the Giants in a game that was very winnable. The Panthers never recovered.

Atlanta: The Roddy White stiff-arm, “uncalled”, pass interference against the Ravens. That play exemplified the Falcons good fortune this season. Will that continue in the playoffs? We shall see.

Picks:

Caveman, Atlanta -14.0, The Falcons need this game or they face the possibility of having to go on the road in the playoffs.

Cavekid’s Pick, Atlanta -14 -”the Falcons beat the Panthers by 21 points last time and being at home will help them win again.”

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-7.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Tampa Bay: 5-11 (Fourth in NFC South) – Who knew that Josh Freeman when combined with young hungry defenders and young skilled players on offense would be enough to compensate for a terrible head coach? Not me.

New Orleans: 11-5 (First NFC South, loss in NFC Championship) – The schedule didn’t seem too terribly tough and generally the Super Champ makes back to the playoffs.

2010 Lasting impression:

Tampa Bay: The two heart-breaking losses to Atlanta, where both games were incredibly winnable.

New Orleans: The fumble by Heath Miller in the week 8 game against the Steelers. The Steelers were driving for at least a field goal to tie and possibly the winning touchdown which would have left the Saints at 4-4. After the game the schedule got easier and you could almost hear the Saints tell the world, “Well, if you’re not going to knock us out after these eight games, then we might as well win it again!”

Picks:

Caveman, Tampa Bay +7.0 – Once the Saints look at the scoreboard and see the Falcons up 21 points, Payton will call off the dogs.

Cavekid’s Pick, New Orleans -7.0 – “I mean the Saints haven’t done anything wrong that would keep them from winning.”

NFC NORTH

Chicago @ Green Bay (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Chicago: 5-11 (Fourth NFC North) – I still think this team is no better than an eight win team. I am very much looking forward to the divisional playoff round where the Bears will be favored over either the Eagles or Saints. Cha-Ching!

Green Bay: 12-4(First NFC North, Super Bowl XLV champions) – So, you’re saying there is still a chance.

2010 Lasting impression:

Chicago: The 36-3 ass-whooping the Patriots gave them, which I think is more representative of them as a team than any other game on the schedule.

Green Bay: The Desean Jackson punt return against the Giants, which put the Packers in position to control their own destiny. Without that the lasting memory for the Packers would be the moronic Aaron Rodgers jaunt through the middle of Ford Field, like he was chasing an overthrown frisbee in Central Park.

Picks:

Caveman, Green Bay -9.5 – I have to admit it would be so Mike McCarthy-like for the Packers to lose this game.

Cavekid’s Pick, Chicago +9.5 -”I think that the Bears will win again, even if they don’t the game will be close.”

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Minnesota: 8-8 (Second in NFC North) – Nailed it! I missed by a couple of games, but my general feeling was Favre would destroy this team.

Detroit: 6-10 (Third in NFC North) – All that stands between 6-10 and third place is the Vikings. Consider it done.

2010 Lasting impression:

Minnesota: Brett Favre laying motionless on the frozen Minnesota turf in week 15 against the Bears. I can’t say I wasn’t cheering!

Detroit: The Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in week one against the Bears. That single play may have flipped this division in the Bears favor and at the same time cost the Lions an early season surge of momentum. Is the football world ready for the Lions and Rams playing for the 2011 NFC Championship? Just remember, you heard it here first!

Picks:

Caveman, Detroit -3.5 – I am not buying into Joe Webb quite yet, but by all means fantasy freaks put himn in your top 10 amongst quarterbacks for next year.

Cavekid’s Pick, Minnesota+3.5 – “The Vikings logo is much cooler than the Lion which is plain and blue.”

NFC WEST

St. Louis (-3.0) @ Seattle

Pre-season predictions:

St. Louis: 3-13 (Fourth in NFC West) – I didn’t count on – 1. Bradford staying healthy; 2. Bradford being this good; 3. The NFC West being this ridiculously bad; and 4.the Rams defense stepping up just enough.

Seattle: 7-9 (Second in NFC West) – Pretty much what I expected – mediocrity.

2010 Lasting impression:

St. Louis: The stand at the end of the Broncos game. The Rams did everything they could to lose that game – go conservative on offense; they gave up huge chunks of yardage in the middle of the field when burning time was in their favor; and they had a special teams breakdown at a critical time. But the defense rose up, stopped the Broncos which allowed the Rams to escape with a win.

Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck pulling up lame after scoring a touchdown against the Bucs in week 16. Now the Seahawks are most likely left starting Johnny Depp at quarterback for the biggest game of the season. Oh yeah, they and the 12th man are 3 point underdogs because of this.

Picks:

Caveman, St. Louis -3.0 – Yep, I am taking a rookie quarterback on the road in a winner-take-all matchup. A lot of that is the Charlie Whitehurst factor, but some of it is the fact that the Seahawks are treating this like a bowl game – yesterday they toured the Space Needle.

Cavekid’s Pick, St. Louis -3 – “You have to support one of your favorite teams.”

Arizona @ San Francisco (-6.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Arizona: 6-10 (3rd place in NFC West) – Exactly what I thought – though I didn’t count on them getting wins against the Saints or Cowboys.

San Francisco: 9-7 (NFC West Champ, loss in Wildcard round) – So, I wasn’t all-in on the 49ers like most of the “experts” (one moron had the 49ers at 12-4), but in my wildest dreams I couldn’t imagine that they wouldn’t at least win 6 games (division games).

2010 Lasting impression:

Arizona: All the way back in the pre-season, the very first pass to Larry Fitzgerald was high, forcing Fitz to leap and take a hit that cost the rest of the pre-season. The result the offense was never in-sync causing Whisenhunt into the “Max Hall” (who is a dead ringer for Matt Saracen) experiment. The rest is history. Either that or Derek Anderson just sucks!

San Francisco: Mike Singletary holding up his index finger asking the referees for one more second in the week 16 game against the Rams. The irony was thick as the 49ers seemingly had “one more” opportunity every week and just wouldn’t die.

Picks:

Caveman, Arizona +6.0, Whisenhunt has the Cardinals playing hard to the end. The 49ers cannot wait to get out of the locker room to start their off-season.

Cavekid’s Pick, San Francisco -6 -”The Cardinals suck.”

NFC EAST

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Dallas: 11-5 (Second NFC East, loss in divisional round) – This team was doomed from the start. I should’ve known, but I am a sucker for overly talented teams coached by the Pillsbury dough boy.

Philadelphia: 11-5 (First NFC East, loss in divisional round) – 11-5 was based on Kevin Kolb, had I known Vick was going to be the Brady with legs-clone, I might have had them at 13-3.

2010 Lasting impression:

Dallas: Game one against the Redskins. The Tashard Choice senseless fumble before half and the holding call on the game winning touchdown optimized the Boys 2010 campaign.

Philadelphia: The Minnesota game in week 16. Not only did it cost the Eagles a bye, but The Vikings gave the league the blueprint on how to contain Vick. Plus, they beat on Vick repeatedly and lower body injuries do not heal at this time of year.

Picks:

Caveman, Dallas +3.0 – The Vikings also gifted gamblers the Cowboys in week 17.

Cavekid’s Pick, Dallas +3 – “having home field advantage will help the Cowboys to keep the game close.”

Me – And I am nine games behind someone who lucks into picks because they cannot figure out the correct home team.

NY Giants (-3.5) @ Washington

Pre-season predictions:

NY Giants: 9-7 (Third in NFC East) – Another impressive call by Caveman! Though without the D-Jax punt return the Giants are most likely the #2 seed.

Washington: 7-9 (Fourth in NFC East) – I debated between 6 and 7 wins for the Skins, but ultimately I decided to go with 7 because a buddy of mine was adamant that the addition of McNabb and Shanahan was enough for at least three wins. That’s what I get for listening to my buddies. And, my buddy Paul, is begging for Giants to mail this game in, so he can cover his over 6.5 win total on the Skins.
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2010 Lasting impression:

NY Giants: Tom Coughlin dressing down his punter after failing to kick the ball out of bounds. Yea, Tom it’s all Dodge’s fault.
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Washington: The pulling of McNabb for the two minute drill against the Detroit because of his conditioning. Little do we know that Shanahan fell out of love with McNabb in week two.

Picks:

Caveman, NY Giants -3.5 – So, the Giants will pummel the Redskins on the faint hope that the Bears show up against the Packers. By the time the Giants get the news the Packers are winning handedly, they should be up by 21.

Cavekid’s Pick, New York Giants -3.5 -”Even though Washington has home field advantage I still think they will get crushed by the mighty Giants.”

AFC EAST

Miami @ New England (-5.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Miami: 9-7 (Second AFC East) – After a 2-0 road start the feeling was this might be the best team in the AFC. They soon leveled out their productive road efforts with atrocious home play.

New England: 12-4 (First AFC East, loss in Super Bowl) – In hindsight, I’m not sure why I thought this team would win 12 games, except for the fact that Belichick makes other coaches wet their pants.

2010 Lasting impression:

Miami: The Roethlisberger fumble game, the Dolphins played tough that game but as was the case more often than not, came away empty.

New England: The Browns game. Somehow this team got whipped in Cleveland, which I think is a pre-cursor to the playoffs.

Picks:

Caveman, New England -5.0 To their credit they play week 17 like any other week regardless of the situation, damn be the Welker injury.

CaveKid’s Pick, New England -5 – “The Patriots killed (literally) the Dolphins last game. I think it’s a safe bet on the Patriots.”

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-10)

Pre-season predictions:

Buffalo: 4-12 (Fourth AFC East) – They play hard but they’re the Northwestern of the AFC East.

NY Jets: 8-8 (Third AFC East) – I would be smiling from ear to ear if the Jets didn’t pull out the Browns, Lions and Texans games.

2010 Lasting impression:

Buffalo: The Steve Johnson dropped pass of a game winning touchdown against the Steelers. Yea, it’s only one game but bad teams find ways to lose. This is an example of how close, yet how far away, this Bills is to being a factor in December.

NY Jets: The gang rape in Foxboro. You cannot get whupped 45-3 after all the smack talk by Rexy.

Picks:

Caveman, Buffalo +1.0 – The Jets are going to mail in this game.

CaveKid’s Pick, New York Jets -1 – “Even though I think the jets suck reeaallllyyy bad!, I think they can win this one.”

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Cleveland

Pre-season predictions:

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (Second AFC North, loss in wildcard round) – I put too much into the Roethlisberger suspension. I figured they would be lucky to be 2-2 without Roethlisberger and then struggles for a couple games with him.

Cleveland: 4-12 (Fourth in AFC North) – I downgraded them because of the quarterback; I mean what team in their right mind signs Jake Delhomme after what they witnessed him in Carolina?

2010 Lasting impression:

Pittsburgh: The beating at the hands of the Patriots. They won’t say it out loud, but every Steelers fan knows they cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. So, they’re left to root for either the Ravens, Colts, or, gulp, Jets to knock New England out of the playoffs prior to the AFC championship.

Cleveland: The Jets game, where the Browns went from a likely win to virtually guaranteed to tie to a mind-blowing loss (think about the investors who bought into Browns stock that week).

Picks:

Caveman, Pittsburgh -5.5 – Tough one here, but the Steelers need this game and you have to think they break out the whooping stick.

CaveKid’s Pick, Pittsburgh -5.5 – “Being away won’t stop Worthlessberger from playing a good game and leading his team to a victory.”

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Cincinnati: 6-10 (Third AFC North) – I figured 2009 was an aberration for the Bengals, but I had no idea they would be this bad.

Baltimore: 12-4 (First AFC North, loss in AFC Championship) – In my book they underachieved this season, their losses were all close, winnable games (Bengals by 5, Steelers by 3, Falcons by 5 and Patriots by 3 in OT). Of course, a lot of their wins were close, losable games.

2010 Lasting impression:

Cincinnati: Blowing a 28-7 lead to the Bills, at home no less. And they didn’t just lose they got blown out!

Baltimore: The home loss to the Steelers. The only way they lose that game it to let the Steelers defense make a huge play and that’s exactly what they did.

Picks:

Caveman, Cincinnati +9.5 – The Bengals always play the Ravens tough, plus there is something to the theory that Cincy is a better team without the theatrics Ocho and TO create.

CaveKid’s Pick, Cincinnati +9.5 – “I’m pretty sure a Bengal can take down a raven like that. I’ve seen it done before.”

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-9.5)

Pre-season predictions:

Tennessee: 9-7 (Third AFC South) – The Titans, early in the season, looked poised to post a 9 or 10 win season, but then the Jeff Fisher/Vince Young thing happened.

Indianapolis: 11-5 (1st place AFC South, loss in Divisional round) – By default, but they’re going to be hard pressed to get past Baltimore in the wildcard round.

2010 Lasting impression:

Tennessee: Vince Young throwing his gear into the stands. That is so classic that I started thinking about “what if” other professionals did the same thing. Imagine a judge whipping his grim reaper gown and gavel into the audience of a court; or a plumber launching a well used plunger into the middle of a customer’s living room. The possibilities are endless!

Indianapolis: The Patriots game where Manning threw the back-breaking (Ya think so, doctor!) interception when the Colts were in comfortable field goal range. That play foreshadowed the next two games for the Colts where seemingly every other Manning pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Picks:

Caveman, Indianapolis -9.5 – Come on, no way Manning allows this game to be close.

CaveKid’s pick, Tennessee +9.5, “I think that the Titans will keep it close like last game.”

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Jacksonville: 7-9 (Fourth AFC South) – I knew they would end up with either 7, 8 or 9 wins, but I figured with the Texans making the leap, that would be enough to keep the Jags below .500.

Houston: 10-6 (Second place AFC South, loss wildcard round) – By far my worst call in the AFC, and yet, if Andre Johnson doesn’t fumble against the Chargers, Joel Dreessen (who?) doesn’t fumble against the Jags, if the Texans secondary decides to cover Braylon Edwards and Schuab doesn’t throw that back-breaking pick-6 against the Ravens, the Texans would be 10-6.

2010 Lasting impression:

Jacksonville: It would be easy to go with the hail-mary against the Texans, but for me it was the Garrard interception that led to the Redskins game winning field goal in week 16. Most Jaguar fans have never completely trusted Garrard, but they had started to buy into him this season and then BAM, a weak, falling backwards, pass to the outside that ends the Jaguar season, just like that.

Houston: There are so many to choose from. But I think I will take the current headline – “Kubiak to return as Texans coach”. Really? Wow, just wow, that’s unreal, what does this guy have to do to get fired? It’s as if the Texans owner is buying to the just plain ‘ol “bad luck” theory.

Picks:

Caveman, Houston -3.0 – The Texans failed in their attempts to Kubiak fired so they might as well win this game.

CaveKid’s Pick, Jacksonville +3, “I’m sure Houston will crap their pants again just like they did last week when I picked them to win.”

Me – Even CaveKid thinks Kubiak should be fired!

AFC WEST

San Diego (-3.5) @ Denver

Pre-season predictions:

San Diego: 10-6 (First AFC West, loss in divisional round) – Only Norv Turner can take a 14 win team loaded with young talent and turn them into a playoff spectator.

Denver: 5-11 (Third place AFC West) – I thought this team would be a mess with an average defense and no identity on offense.

2010 Lasting impression:

San Diego: The first loss to Oakland. That was a microcosm of the Chargers season, horrible start (two blocked punts), rally to take the lead, yet ultimately find a way to blow the game (Raiders second game and Bengals last week).

Denver: The Tim Tebow era. Say what you want about Tebow but the guy battles and battles and battles! He’s that kid who kept coming back until he finally won the fight.

Picks:

Caveman, Denver +3.5 – Tebow is a gift to sports investors.

CaveKid’s Pick , San Diego -3.5, “The Chargers simply have a much better record and are a better team than the Broncos.”

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.0)

Pre-season predictions:

Oakland: 4-12 (Fourth AFC West) – Originally I had the Raiders pegged as my surprise team, but when I told a buddy of mine, he informed me that the Raiders “were everyone’s surprise team”! That was enough to get me off their scent and onto the Panthers. Ugh!

Kansas City: 6-10 (Second place AFC West) – Wow, I really butchered this division. I definitely thought the Chiefs would be better, but not playoff material nor a team that could weather the storm when things got crazy. But the Chiefs did both.

2010 lasting impression:

Oakland: The 35-yard missed field goal by Sebastian Janikowski against the Cardinals in week 3. That loss haunted them the entire year. A win there turns the week 16 game against the Colts from meaningless to meaningful and this game against the Chiefs into a matchup for the division. But it’s not like the Raiders burned a high draft pick on Janikowski, right?

Kansas City: The St. Louis game. The Chiefs, coming off a drubbing by the Chargers the prior week, fell behind the Rams 6-0. With the division slipping away, the Chiefs pulled it together, beat the Rams and then got an early Christmas present as the Raiders beat the Chargers – division over!

Picks:

Caveman, Kansas City -3.0 - Charlie Weis is leaving the Chiefs to take the OC job at Florida? Of course he is, I mean he was such a great head coach in college, why not continue to pursue that path.

CaveKid’s Pick , Oakland +3.0 – “My dad always says “hey Chief” and he sometimes adds “you suck!” so I’m going to have to favor the Raiders.”

Me – And you thought J.D. McCoy had it rough with his pops!

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