Before I get to the fearless 2009 National League predictions, here is a quick look at the very un-scientific process I use. I start with the 2008 record for each team and add/subtract wins based on the following:
- Player additions, returning injured players and players lost. This is my completely subjective opinion on how those players will fit in or be missed.
- I look at the previous year Pythagorean expected wins verse actual wins. This will give a general idea of whether a team was lucky or unlucky and since we know luck comes and goes, there is a possibility that a lucky team from a year ago will be unlucky this year.
- Finally, my “feel”, which counts for about 95% of the prediction. We live in times where the Devil Rays make a name change and next thing you know they’re winning the toughest division (AL East, debatable I know, but anytime you have to compete against the Yankees and Red Sox for playoff spots that is incredibly tough) in baseball. Rather than crunch the “Runs Created” numbers for a lineup and come up with the best team “on paper”, I prefer to add the human element in the equation.
NL West –
Los Angeles – The Dodgers are loaded this year and, if they fail to win the NL West it would rank up there with the biggest chokes in Southern California history – right along the Lakers (1990, 2002, 2003 and 2008), any game the mighty Trojans football team lose and possibly the biggest choke ever SoCal – the constant jilting by NFL teams and yet LA still refuses to build a legitimate football stadium. But hey it’s SoCal and there is sooooo much to do there.
The Dodgers are solid at every position and have no real weaknesses, but a handful of teams can boast that, the reason this years Dodger team will be so good? Manny Ramirez, for :
- His presence in the lineup takes the pressure off the young players
- His ass-clowning will keep the clubhouse loose and Torre regular
- Dodger stadium, when filled, is loud and is surprisingly a big home field advantage. And now that the Dodgers have a star power in Manny, the uppity LA snobs have to see every one of his at-bats, which mean no more showing up in the 3rd and leaving in the 6th. Now you have to stick around and see what that crazy, dread-locked guy will do next!
- Manny had firmly supplanted Rick Vaughan as the top seller of #99 baseball jerseys. Literally, the Indians sell a jersey for a fictional character that in real-life throws in the mid-60s and would curl-up in the fetal position at the mere mention of someone like Jack Parkman, let alone utter the words “I want Parkman”.
Colorado – Injuries really riddled the Rockies last year. After watching they’re unbelievable run through the NL in 2007, the Rox seemed primed to be very formidable for years to come. But now maybe not so much, especially since their basically relegated to playing for the wildcard.
By the way, did you know that the Red Sox phrase, “Soxtober”, was stolen from the Rockies, “Rocktober”? Yep, as it was explained to me by a Rockies fan during game three of the World Series in 2007. Yeah right, buddy, a team that has two playoffs appearances in its history really came up with the Rocktober. In fact this kid probably wasn’t born the last time the Rockies were in the playoffs. But you -know what you do when you are surrounded around 70,000 angry hicks, with your 11-year old daughter as your only backup? You agree with him – “You might be right, I don’t remember seeing Soxtober in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004 or 2005.”
Arizona – Fearless predictions for the 2009 Diamondbacks:
- They will finish in the top 10 in runs scored, but the fans will complain they don’t score enough runs
- They will be in the top five in ERA, yet they will pitch just well enough to lose several games.
- They will play at least eight games under their expected win and have an atrocious record in close games
Bottom line on this team – Bob Melvin will meddle with the lineup on a daily basis and no one will get into a solid groove. On the occasion when things go well, the mad scientist inevitably end up benching the hot hand for Mark Reynolds, because Reynolds is 3/5 against pitcher A, when said pitcher coming off a 7+ inning, winning performance in 80 degree weather on a weekend day game.
The “Sans” – Good grief these are two of the worst teams in the history of baseball, with the Padres notching the Giants only because they have Adrian Gonzalez batting cleanup while the Giants sport Bengie Molina in the four hole. Can you imagine going from Barry Bonds to Bengie Molina? The closest I can come to that is what happened to Louis Winthorpe in Trading Places, when Dukes made the $1 bet they could ruin him.
- Los Angeles 90-72
- Colorado 84-78
- Arizona 78-84
- San Diego 75-87
- San Francisco 71-91
NL Central –
St. Louis – If the Cardinals starting pitching can be merely average the Cardinals should take this division rather easily. And even though closing games will be an adventure for the Redbirds, LaRussa seems always find a way mix and match mediocre arms effectively.
The other thing about the Cardinals is they play in a baseball town, where failure is not an option, so whether they have talent or not they always seem to be competitive and rarely disappoint their fans. Unlike their rivals to the North. . .
Chicago – I would love to hop in Doc Brown’s Dolorean, set the destination to the year 2109 and ask the first person I see “Have the Cubs won the World Series?” Here are the likely answers:
95% – No
4.9% – “Who are the Cubs?”, “Beesball? What is beesball?”, “A sport? Our national pastime is cricket!”
0.1% – Yes
So there you have it – I give the Cubs a tenth of a percent chance to win one championship in the next 100 years. What are the actual odds that the Cubs breakthrough in the century? Well, if we assume that every team has an equal chance of winning the WS every year, then the Cubs should pocket at least three championships in the next 100 (1 in 30 chance every year, every 30 years would give them one). And given the fact that the Cubs spend more than 2/3 of the league, they should collect roughly 10 titles. But would you gamble your 401K on the Cubs giving Chicago a WS parade within 100 years? Exactly!
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati – Both teams are on the verge of competing, most likely next year, but if a couple guys produce career years either could be in the mix this year.
If Brandon Phillips thrives in the cleanup role (.300/30/100), Aaron Harang (16-7, 3.50) bounces back and Francisco Cordero saves 45 games the Reds will be right in the thick of the Central race.
For the Pirates, if Freddy Sanchez returns to 2007 form (.310/20/90), two of Maholm, Snell or Duke can win 16 games and Matt Capps doesn’t crapp the bed as the closer then the Bucs will be right in the mix.
Houston – What is it with the Texas teams? If you combined the Astros and Rangers pitching staffs, you have a very solid triple-A rotation. We know the Rangers have never had any pitching, but the Astros, back in 2005, boasted one the most complete staffs in all of baseball. Now they have Roy Oswalt (on the downside of his career), a recycled Mike Hampton (when the last time Hampton was relevant) and a bunch of stiffs.
It’s going to be a long year in H-Town, but not as long as the year in . . .
Milwaukee – Last October I thought the Brewers were the team to beat. This year they are “team to be beaten”. They’re going to give the Rangers a real run for the worst pitching staff in all of baseball. My goodness, Jeff Suppan is their opening day starter! Yes, the same Jeff Suppan was wasn’t good enough to even make the Red Sox 2003 post-season roster (I cannot let that trade go, Freddy Sanchez for Suppan).
And the offense isn’t that great, either. Plus, opposing pitchers will pitch with so little pressure against the Brewers, merely because of the fact that they know their offense will produce runs.
- St. Louis 91-71
- Chicago 85-77
- Cincinnati 80-82
- Pittsburgh 79-83
- Houston 70-92
- Milwaukee 68-94
NL East
NY Mets – For two consecutive years the Mets have failed to finish and the word out of New York it really affected the Mets this off-season. For example, Johan Santana was seen walking around Manhattan with a half beard, Carlos Beltran was spotted in boxers with no pants and Carlos Delgado, well, let’s leave it at he smelled like a manure plant.
Of course, none of that really happened but you have to wonder if the past two seasons have gotten into Mets collective heads. What happens if the Amazin’s have a five game in the last couple of weeks and Francisco Rodriguez goes Billy Wagner? Or Jose Reyes commits a huge late game error that costs them a game?
Fear not, Mets fans, this year the Mets will finish but not because they “grew a pair”, but because no else in the division will be close enough to take it from them.
Florida – The stars are aligned for the Marlins to win the World Series from the NL wildcard for the 3rd time in franchise history – 1997-2003-2009 – every six years.
Philadelphia – Ahh, the World Series tour the Phillies went on will take the toll on their 2009 season. Look for a terrible start as the Phils get themselves into shape from the banquet circuit, then a nice little run in June/July and ultimately run out of gas in September.
Atlanta – It’s hard to pick against Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine, what those guys are no longer with the Braves? The Braves are no longer relevant, but I must say I really miss the start of football, the changing of leaves and the Braves get bounced in the playoffs.
Washington – Ugh! What a lousy baseball team and they actually have money to spend. They have a realistic chance to get the 1962 Mets off the books by losing 121 games.
- NY Mets 92-70
- Florida 86-76
- Philadelphia 84-78
- Atlanta 81-81
- Washington 57-105
NLDS
Florida 3-2 over St. Louis
Los Angeles 3-2 over NY Mets
NLCS
Not this year Marlin “fan”, as they will be fans this year, the Dodgers are too good, plus I can’t resist predicting the “Manny v. the Red Sox” that we just missed last year.
Los Angeles 4-2 over Florida
World Series
Here is the scenario – Manny leads the Dodgers to a victory in game 1, then Manny turns and plays a ball off the base of the “Monster” in a key spot in game two that get the Sox rolling. And while their 8 game World Series winning streak will end, the Sox win their third title in six years!
Boston 4-1 over Los Angeles
