Before I get to the fearless 2009 American League predictions, here is a quick look at the very un-scientific process I use. I start with the 2008 record for each team and add/subtract wins based on the following:
- Player additions, returning injured players and players lost. This is my completely subjective opinion on how those players will fit in or be missed.
- I look at the previous year Pythagorean expected wins verse actual wins. This will give a general idea of whether a team was lucky or unlucky and since we know luck comes and goes, there is a possibility that a lucky team from a year ago will be unlucky this year.
- Finally, my “feel”, which counts for about 95% of the prediction. We live in times where the Devil Rays make a name change and next thing you know they’re winning the toughest division (AL East, debatable I know, but anytime you have to compete against the Yankees and Red Sox for playoff spots that is incredibly tough) in baseball. Rather than crunch the “Runs Created” numbers for a lineup and come up with the best team “on paper”, I prefer to add the human element in the equation.
AL West – I expect that the AL West will be more competitive this year (Michael Spinks was more competitive against Tyson than the rest of the AL West was against the Angels last year), but the Angels are still clearly the favorite and likely will win the division, even though they’re setup up perfectly for a “don’t mean a thing without the ring” hangover season.
Anaheim – Think about what has happened to the Angels since last July – they sold out to get Teixeira even though they were clearly going to win the division without, lost in four excruciating games to the Red Sox, lost Big Tex to the Yankees and now will likely open the season without their top three starters.
The Angels played a whopping +12 to expected Pythag number last year (100 vs. 88), however, that is nothing new for the Angels as most small ball type teams will perform better than their expected number for a couple of reasons – 1. They’re more adept at manufacturing a run late in close games and 2. They lack the firepower to run up big scores and lopsided victories.
And the Angels will be breaking in a new closer, which can be a little like house breaking a dog – there are times where you think you are past the pile in the corner, but the very next day ol’ Lucky comes around the corner grinning ear to ear after doing his business.
Add it all up and this Angels team looks like that might fall off the map in 2009. But fear not Mickey, the Angels still have enough to win a relatively weak division.
Seattle – I can see this Mariner team making a big leap this year and put themselves in contention come August. I love Bedard to rebound this year and I have always thought King Felix was a top five pitcher (ever since he two-hit the Red Sox in Fenway back in 2006). And this Brandon Morrow kid is going to be a great closer.
In addition, playing them in Seattle is like traveling to Siberia for a series, so if the Mariners improve slightly on the road they should be in contention. It’s simply not fair when the Mariners get an East coast team at the end of a nine game road trip (again this might be Red Sox bias, but I swear the Red Sox lost like 1000 straight games in Seattle and every game was at the tail-end of either a nine or 12 game road trip).
The offense is what will hold them back, even though they are scrappy enough to make up for the lack of power. But at the end of the day the lack of run production will keep them from shocking the world and winning the west.
Texas – Honestly, if they don’t score 1000 runs, I have no idea how they are going to win close to 70 games. Kevin Millwood being the ace is like thinking you can win a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman as your starting quarterback, oh wait… You get the point, the Rangers can MASH, but any staff that starts Vincente Padilla and Kris Benson cannot be taken seriously. But they can really MASH!!
Oakland - What is it going to take to make the A’s relevant again? A new stadium? Maybe they need to threaten to move to LA, they could be the Los Angeles Athletics of the San Fernando Valley. And instead of the famed “Disco Night”, they could have, in honor of “the Valley”, “Porn Night”, where fans are encouraged to come dressed as their favorite porno actor, uh, maybe that’s not such a good idea.
There are several interesting stories this year with the A’s – what happens with Matt Holliday as he goes from the most hitter friendly park in the majors (Coors) to maybe the worst park for hitters (Anti-Virus Stadium). And will Jason Giambi drowned in a pool of his own sweat on one of those 68 degree nights in Oakland? Will Jack Cust either stikeout or homer in every one of his at-bats this year? How about the over/under on number Nomar Garciaparra first pitch swing, at-bats it takes before Billy Beane decides to light himself on fire?
The mere mention of Garciaparra brings a great sorrow to me. Has there ever been a player that crashed and burned worse than Nomar? In 1998, Nomar drove in just about every run in the ALDS against Cleveland. Many experts thought he had a legitimate shot at hitting .400, then he gets nailed on the wrist by Jorge Julio and I don’t think he was ever the same.
The A’s were 20 games under .500 after they purged themselves of major league starting pitchers last year. Now their ace is Justin Duchscherer! Call me prejudice, but I never trust 85 MPH junk-ballers as the ace of my staff. But that’s just me.
- Anaheim 90-72
- Seattle 84-78
- Texas 78-84
- Oakland 75-87
AL Central – The winner of the division gets to play the AL East champ, (note to the fans 2009 AL Central winning team – make sure you get an “AL Central Champs” t-shirt), so it will be a short stay to be sure. In fact, I wish MLB could change things on a whim (like the NBA does) and have the winner of the AL Central play the third place team in the AL East in a one game playoff for the right to go to the playoffs.
It seems every year the AL Central is upside-down from what the “experts” predict, so much so that this division could very be decided by the ping-pong ball lottery machine the NBA uses to determine draft (without the fixing).
Given those facts – I decided I would use a lottery system, with weights given to starting staff, bullpen, offense and manager, to determine the finish of this division. I ranked each team 1-5 in those categories then give the top ranked team in each category five ping pong balls, four for the second ranked team, and so on. Then I will draw out the order of the division from the ping pong balls.
Starting Pitching – 1. Minnesota, 2. Kansas City, 3. Chicago, 4. Cleveland, 5. Detroit
I’m not sure the best starting pitcher in this division would be anything better than a number 5 pitcher on the Rays, Red Sox or Yankees. Case in point Edwin Jackson in the #2 starter for the Tigers, but was sent from the Rays for a platoon outfielder.
Bullpen – 1. Minnesota, 2. Chicago, 3. Cleveland, 4. Kansas City, 5. Detroit
Mostly based on closers.
Offense – 1. Detroit, 2. Cleveland, 3. Kansas City, 4. Chicago, 5. Minnesota
Manager – 1. Chicago, 2. Minnesota, 3. Kansas City, 4. Detroit, 5. Cleveland
I couldn’t decide between Ozzie and Gardenhire, so I used the fact that Ozzie has a ring and Gardenhire has lost all four of the playoff series’ he has managed. Hillman gets third by default, as the years of chain smoking in the dugout have finally caught up with Leyland. How does Eric Wedge still have a job?
Final number of ping pong balls:
Minnesota – 15 or 25% chance of winning the division
Chicago – 14 or 23.3% chance of winning the division
Kansas City – 12 or 20% chance of winning the division
Cleveland – 10 or 16.7% chance of winning the division
Detroit – 9 or 15% chance of winning the division
I peg the division winner at ~87 wins, so I am going to pull one team hits four times and assign each of those “pulls” 18 wins, then each win after that will be worth 15 until a fifth pull and so on, until I have not only the order of finish but number of wins, sort of like a PlayStation simulation of the season based on about 90% luck.
This is really exciting!!! And the first ball of out the hopper . . . the Detroit Tigers, but that is where it ends for MoTown and based on the lottery the division will finish as follows:
- Minnesota 87-75
- Kansas City 83-79
- Chicago 80-82
- Detroit 74-88
- Cleveland 70-92
AL East – Let’s start with what we know – the Orioles and Blue Jays have no chance at this division. I will take the Orioles 4th, as I think they have a younger, hungrier team and will finish strong, whereas the the Blue Jays will go through a mid-season purging that would make the CEO of Wells Fargo blush. Blue Jays they have two questions – where will Roy Halladay end up and is anyone interested in Vernon Wells.
Now on to the “Big Three”, maybe the three best teams in all of baseball.
Tampa Bay – everything came together for the Rays last year – their young pitching stepped up and their position players finally lived up to the hype, but the single biggest reason the Rays shocked the world was their bullpen was lights out. Although comprised mostly of other teams castoffs, the Rays pen came together to greatly exceed expectations. JP Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and Trever Miller all posted career best numbers last season with the Rays.
Now the big question is – can the pen be lights out this year? I say no. Other factors working against the Rays:
- Relying on Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann as 40% of the rotation for the first month of the season or so.
- Teams will no longer come to Tampa for vacation and extended spring training, now the Rays will be the hunted instead of practice.
- The average Tampa resident still thinks Jason Bartlett is the funny old guy from the Bartles and James wine cooler commercials, i.e., when the Yanks and Sox show up at the “Trop” the Rays will be the visiting team.
Adding it all up, the Rays still have enough to post the third best record in the AL. Problem is that will be the third best record in their division and will get them a nice parting gift.
New York Yankees – How many times do you see it – a guy stops using steroids and his body starts to break down? McGwire (allegedly), Sosa (allegedly), Giambi (allegedly, “I’m sorry”, “for what?”, “I’m sorry”) and now A-Roid (confirmed).
There was a lot made about the Yanks off-season spending, but the reality is their payroll is less this year than last. The Yankees had $61 million come off the payroll in Giambi, Mussina, Abreu and Carl Pavano (what a bargain Pavano was at only 4.2 million per win). The big free agents they brought in will run them roughly 53 million this year, so it’s not like the Yankees went on an exorbitant spending spree.
And I am not sure how much any of those three players really upgrade them. If they get out of C.C. what Mussina gave them last year they will be happy, if Teixeira puts up a normal year it will be a slim upgrade over Giambi and while AJ Burnett is an upgrade for them, has he never stayed healthy in a non-contract year in his career.
Plus, the Yankees have to deal with the loss of A-Rod over the first month or so. And it begs the question if “Mr. April” misses April, does he have any value?
All in all this is about the same team as last year, but I do think Burnett and Teixeira pushed them into the mid 90 win mark and that will be enough to surge past Tampa Bay for second place.
Boston – Back in early February I was very worried about the offense, but once I heard David Ortiz decided to work out this off-season and Mike Lowell is looking less like James Caan’s character in misery and more like an aging veteran. I believe the Sox will have enough, albeit not record setting like years past, offense.
The strength will be the pitching staff with six potential quality starters in Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Penny, Smoltz and Bucholtz. Throw in the innings eater and Mr. 500, Tim Wakefield and you have arguably the best staff in baseball. The bullpen has the hammer, Papelbon, to close things out. The remaining members of the pen can be shaky, but each has tremendous stuff. The Red Sox have to hope that Takashi Saito conversion from closer to set-up guy is smoother than the last time attempt (Eric Gagne, who went from lights out closer to stellar set-up man to protector of 10 run leads seemingly overnight) at this transition.
But the difference in the race will be the Sox ability to acquire talent prior to the trade deadline. I can see Miguel Cabrera (his $14 million 2009 salary and the remaining 128 million on his contract) coming over, as the Tigers begin to hemorrhage money this summer or maybe Matt Holliday and his 13.5 M salary. You can be sure if a big name player is available the Red Sox will be players.
- Boston 98-64
- New York 95-67
- Tampa Bay 92-70
- Baltimore 78-84
- Toronto 75-87
ALDS
Boston 3-1 over Minnesota
NY Yankees 3-1 over Anaheim
ALCS
It’s been five years since the two beasts hooked up in an October classic; I think the world is ready for it again. This series will look a lot the 2003 world series with Penny and Beckett dominating the Yankees, as the Red Sox will advance to their third World Series in six years.
Boston 4-2 over NY Yankees
