“Ain’t going to be no rematch” – Apollo Creed
“Don’t want one!” – Rocky Balboa
Well, Rocko got his rematch in Rocky II and avenged his loss. This week the NFL features four re-matches from regular season games, each played at the site of the previous game. The Giants, Ravens, Cardinals and Chargers look to join “The Italian Stallion” and win the rematch.
The playoffs bring a higher prize, there is more at stake, an avenged win here and the regular season loss is meaningless and the team gets to continue on a trek toward a championship. Imagine had Rocko lost the rematch, what would have become of him? He would have continued scrubbing toilets and taking shots from younger, up-and-coming boxers. That’s how important these games will be – either win and go on to greatness or lose and potentially face a series of cataclysmic events that will ruin the rest of life.
My 3-1 record last week spoiled the dream of 11-0, but I still have goals to play for – a winning playoff (like beating your rival), a seven game winning streak to close out the playoffs (meaning I could get the Tiger Woods version of 11-0, spanning seasons) and lining the pockets of my many readers (think of it as you own stock in my team, I will reward you).
On to, what is without a doubt the toughest Divisional weekend since I started doing this back in 1995, the divisional picks:
Saturday Games:
Baltimore vs Tennessee (-3) – Has there ever been a tougher playoff game to handicap than this one? The earlier game between the two teams was won by the Titans, 13-10. However, there was a terrible personal foul penalty, on the Ravens Terrell Suggs, that kept alive the drive that ended with the game winning touchdown.
Here is an example of what I have been through this week:
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Point: “You cannot expect Flacco to win on the road (again!) against a ferocious defense”
- Counter: ” Ed Reed and the Ravens defense will compensate for any mistakes Flacco will make”
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Point: “The Ravens are playing for the 17th consecutive week, they’re exhausted and will run out of gas.”
- Counter: “They showed no signs of fatigue or wearing down against the Dolphins.”
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Point: “Titans center Kevin Mawae is likely sitting this game out, which means Haloti Ngata (probably the second best DT in the NFL behind Albert Hanyesworth) will be matched up against a backup.”
- Counter: “Jeff Fisher is a good enough coach to overcome this loss”
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Point: “Titans coach Jeff Fisher is no rookie in these situations, while Ravens coach John Harbaugh is a rookie who is susceptible to poor decisions.”
- Counter: “Fisher hasn’t exactly excelled in the playoffs – 5-5 career record, three wins coming in the “Music City Miracle” season.”
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Point: “The Titans are a playing at home and are undervalued at -3.”
- Counter: “The same could be said for the 2000 Titans when the Ravens came a calling. Result: Ravens 24 Titans 10.”
Literally every time I thought I had the game pegged, I would immediately come up a counter that put me back on the fence. It is cliché, but a game with teams this evenly matched, the game will come down to a few big plays and field position. There is no discernable edge in special teams – Tennessee has a slightly better return game, Baltimore holds a slight edge in punting and Tennessee’s field goal kicker has a more powerful leg and was slightly more accurate.
The betting consensus (thanks to covers.com) is fairly evenly divided at 56-44, in favor of Baltimore, so you cannot make the “Vegas does not lose games like this” argument. In fact, the sports books haven’t move the line at all, they’re seemingly content to take the “juice” from this game and move on.
My advice – stay away from this game, even the total (34) is not safe given the potential for short fields and defensive touchdowns. But if you cannot watch a game without some “action” – take the Ravens – for two reasons – 1. Ed Reed and 2. The Titans losing Kevin Mawae
Baltimore 20 Tennessee 10
Arizona @ Carolina (-10) – Whew! I just about exhausted every ounce of energy on that Ravens/Titans game. The good news is I didn’t have to expend a single millisecond of time on this game. The minute the Gatorade hit Ken Whisenhunt’s bald head, I had a winner.
Much to my surprise the Cardinals are actually the consensus pick at Covers (56 to 44 percent). One of the comments by a “Cardinal backer” – “This is too many points for Carolina to give to anybody” – which violates the “never pick a team unless you think they can win outright” playoff rule. However, that logic sounds good until you turn on the game and witness the following within the first twenty minutes:
- Rain, cold and terrible field conditions
- The Panthers receive the ball and on the second play from scrimmage flip a 5-yard pass to Steve Smith that he takes 60 for a TD
- The Cardinals go three-and-out with Warner missing badly on two pressured throws
- The Panthers go on a 12 play, 70 yard touchdown drive, featuring several missed tackles by Cardinal defenders and multiple third down conversions by the Panthers
Down 14-0, you’re pulling the Albert Brooks move in “Lost in America“, “How about you give us our money back as a marketing strategy?”
Too much is being made of the Cardinals previous visit to Carolina. Sure that was their best road game of the year, but the two teams are completely different right now. To me the Panthers are the NFC favorites and the Cardinals were extremely lucky to win last week against the Falcons.
I have heard all the talk from the Cardinals about “We’re tired of hearing about our struggles on the east coast” and “We want to shock the world”, but the reality is last week after the win the Cardinals dumped Gatorade on their head coach (only playoff winning team to do so), Whisenhunt took a victory lap around UOP high-fiving the fans and the locker room was filled with a Champagne celebration. OK, I made up the part about the Champagne, but the other two are absolutely true. Now, does that look like a team confident they are going to advance to the conference championship? No way!
The smart play is to “please” (a pleaser is a bet involves increased odds for adding points to your betting line, the opposite of a teaser) this line and the Ravens and collect at 6 to 1.
Originally, I made my pick based on Boldin not playing for the Cardinals. All signs point to him playing and that does make a difference – so instead of 38-7, I have the game …
Carolina 38 Arizona 14
Sunday Games:
Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-4.0) – There is no bigger bandwagon team this week than the Eagles, with several publications comparing them to the 2007 Giants. While there are some similarities between the two teams – both were underachievers during the season, both needed help to get in the playoffs and both won on the road in the first round. The comparison fails, however, when you consider that Tony Romo and the playoff futile Cowboys are not walking through that door.
The Giants are the most under-valued team this week due to the notion that they’re not playing good football – they needed to win one game down the stretch to secure home field and they did that, the other games they rested players and clearly did not have strong desire. Add to that the Giants, despite being defending Super Bowl champions, are going to play the “world against us” and “no one resepects us” cards this week because the media is busying felicitating Andy Reid (ugh, I just threw-up in my mouth by the mere thought of that) and the Eagles.
It appears that the Eagles fans have turned from pessimistic, “woe is us” into arrogant, “any place any time”. Last week at the Cardinals game, I spotted several Eagle fans wearing McNabb’s jerseys. Each time I was within ear-shot of said Eagles fan, several Cardinals fan could be heard shouting – “Go Eagles” or “come on McNabb we are pulling for you”. And how do you think a typical Eagles fan would respond? Probably with something humble like “Good luck to you as well, I hope we are back here in two weeks”, or even something as simple as “Thanks”. But no, each of the four times I heard something along the lines of – “You already had some of that, you don’t want any more” or “Careful what you wish for, it just might come true and we remember what happened last time”.
I don’t want to go all literal on you, but Cardinals fans had no choice but to root for the Eagles and keep hope alive of playing the NFC championship at UOP. Oh yeah, we already saw how great the Eagles are, let’s root for the Vikings so we have no chance of playing at home again this year and we get to make easy trips to New York and Carolina.
And let’s add to it that there is an absurd level of cockiness about the Eagles going into New York this week and coming out victors. Almost as Philly fans have forgotten the prior 25 years of futility because they beat a historical the worst franchise in baseball the past 10 years in the World Series.
I liken the Philly fans to a prisoner who is granted released on parole after spending 25 years in prison and then when out on the streets immediately violates his parole. It’s back to “the clink”, Philly fans – this time try spending an even fitee.
NY Giants 27 Philadelphia 16
San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-6.0) – “Heads it’s San Diego, tails it’s Pittsburgh”. And there is the flip – while the coin is seemingly suspended in air here is my take on this game:
I can make strong cases for both teams hence the reason for the coin flip. On one hand it’s dangerous to back a warm weather, west coast team on the east coast in likely miserable weather. But the Chargers played in those same ridiculous conditions up in Pittsburgh back in November and came within an eyelash of winning in the Steel City. And the track in Pittsburgh actually works against the Steelers in that it slows the super-fast Steelers defense down.
On another hand, the Chargers have now replaced the Colts as a “team living on borrowed time”, for multiple reasons – the NFL has made good on their effort to correct their egregious error in week 2, therefore expect no more favorable calls for the Chargers, the Chargers are more banged up than Madonna at an NBA All-Star game and the Chargers offensive line is worn down, as evidenced by the fact they had trouble against the Colts, imagine what is going to happen against the Steelers.
On the third hand, the Steelers are a fantastic regular season team, but consistently under-perform in the playoffs. We know that close playoff games are often decided by special teams and the Chargers special team unit is significantly better than Pittsburgh.
The fourth hand, ok enough of the hands, but the bottom line here is I need an angle to avoid leaving my fate up to a flip of the coin, like Norv did last week against Indianapolis. So here it is and surprisingly it comes from a gambling point of view. I mentioned teasers in the Cardinals/Panthers section, basically a teaser allow you to subtract points from a line in exchange for paying a premium and using multiple teams. A common bet is a two team teaser, where a bettor will simply “tease” two heavy favorites down to a spread that is in effect a “win the game”. For example, Pittsburgh -6, can become Pittsburgh PICK.
So what does this have to do with the game? Well, for starters in a weekend where three of the four games are literally spread toss-ups, many gamblers will not do the smart thing by staying away, but instead look for a way to get action. Any of the other three games may inspire a teaser, but this game is the logically “teaser wheel”, meaning every teaser card will have Pittsburgh at a pick’em as part of the parlay. That my friend never works out for the gambler. So, call this game the “teaser killer”.
San Diego 20 Pittsburgh 16
Last Week: 3-1
All-Time Playoff Record (1995-2007): 77-70
Best Playoff Record: 7-4 (2007)
