2008 NFL Playoffs “Wild-Card” Weekend Picks

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The NFL playoffs begin this weekend and I have a chance to check off another of my football “bucket list” items.

One would think that an 11-0 run through the NFL playoffs seems reasonable, yet the closest I have been is 7-4. I have had two 4-0 wildcard weekends, only to see my dream go up in flames in the divisional round (one year 0-4 and the next 2-2).

What makes the playoffs so difficult is the media’s non-stop analysis and over-analysis of each game. Sifting through all of information makes it difficult to sit back and make logical picks. Throw in the odds-makers playing their games and I find myself on the bathroom floor like Marc Anthony in “Two for the Money” – “heads it’s the Cardinals, tails it’s the Falcons”.

I promised myself that this year I would ignore the talking-heads and the not read too much into the odds-makers. Instead I would evaluate each team on their body of work and attempt to correlate each team with teams of the past.

Saturday Games:

Arizona (-2) vs. Atlanta – This spread opened at Atlanta -3 and has moved 5 points to Arizona -2. Hmmm, very interesting! Line movements from +2 to -2, generally mean very little, but in this case I believe the money on the Cardinals has moved this line. That does not work in the Cards favor, since billion dollar casinos not are built by house losing.

But, I promised not to let odds-maker tricks enter into my equation, unless I was truly split down the middle. And I am not in this game. I truly believe the Cardinals will play much better than they did the last five weeks of the season. They will be closer to the team that dominated the Cowboys in week 6 than the team that completely imploded against the Vikings in week 15.

In addition, the Falcons, with their weak secondary and lack of a dominate pass-rusher, present a nice matchup for Cardinals. The Falcons defense isn’t good enough to compensate for a rookie Quarterback and head coach in road playoff game.

Arizona 31 Atlanta 20

Indianapolis (-2.5) @ San Diego – Let’s take a look at what Indianapolis has in their favor in this game:

• They have won nine straight. And while the Chargers have won four straight, two of the games required a miracle finish to attain victory.
  
• The record of teams with a 4 or more win total advantage in the playoffs is something like 23-4
  
• They have a distinct head coaching advantage. Norv Turner is a brilliant offensive mind, but he leaves too many stones un-turned and in the playoffs those un-turned stones will get you beat.
  
• The Colts are as healthy as they have been all year, whereas LT and Antonio Gates are banged up for the Chargers.
  
• Despite Phillip Rivers career season this year, I still think he will be over-matched in this game. On the other side there’s Peyton Manning, who has put those same “big game” questions to rest.
  

So, that all adds up to an easy Colts win, right? No! I cannot explain this with logic, but I feel that the Chargers will end up winning this game. Some of it might be the fact that they have won three of the last four games against the Colts. Even more of it might be the fact that the Colts are living on borrowed time, if not for the gift in Houston (week 6), they might not be in the playoffs.

But at the end of the day, this will be a game that the odds-makers (breaking my promise) take. I predict they will lose big on the Cardinals/Falcons game, but steal parlay and “double-up” money on this “lock” for the Colts.

San Diego 31 Indianapolis 28

Sunday Games:

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Miami – I am about to violate the “never back a rookie quarterback on the road in a playoff” rule. The corollary to this rule should be “unless the rookie’s said team possesses a relentless running attack and a lockdown defense”. Translation – Joe Flacco does not need to win this game by himself.

Miami’s turn-around is a great story and gives fans of teams like the Rams tremendous hope. However, this Dolphin team has the makings of a “just happy to be in the playoffs” and “we’re ahead of schedule” team. Those teams never fair well in the playoffs.

If we look closer at the Dolphins scshedule, it reveals four wins that were by five points or less and their opponent in all four games had a either the ball the red zone at the end or on the fringe of field goal range with a chance to win the game. What does all this mean – the ‘phins are lucky to be in the playoffs.

Baltimore 23 Miami 10

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Minnesota– If I broke my promise not to read too much into the odds-maker lines on the Colts/Chargers game, then I am about to blow it up with this game.

From a gambling perspective, this is the most intriguing game of the weekend. This game screams “easy Eagles cover”, but similar to the Saturday games, I expect the casinos to take a bath on the early game, which would leave them in danger of taking a major beating at the beginning of the year.

And we know the following about sports books:

• Football carries the sports books through the less lucrative sports like basketball and baseball. The sports books need a successful football or bills in June and July aren’t getting paid.
• The amount of money bet on the 11 playoff games is roughly equals to the amount of the money bet on the regular season
• While the casinos clean-up on parlays bets and low percentage prop cards, the meat of the money comes from straight bets.
• Casinos, while on the outside might appear to be concerned about their customers are as ruthless as can be, desiring every last penny from gamblers. They do not feel good about losing a five dollar bet

Let’s say for example that there will be a total of 700 million wagered on the NFL playoffs this year and if we divide that out into 220/220/160/100 for each round of the playoffs. And if we divide each by the number of games, we get 55 million wagered on each game. From the site Covers.com, we can get a reasonable idea of where the percentage money that is being wager on each team. We come up with these numbers:

• Atlanta – 31 Million v. Arizona – 24 Million, if the Cards cover as I expect the casinos can be expected to pocket roughly 9.4 million(7 million plus the 10% juice)
• Indianapolis – 38 million v. San Diego – 17 million, if the Chargers cover add another 22.7 million to the coffers
• Baltimore – 35 million v. Miami 20 million, if the Ravens cover, then the casinos lose 11.5 million

That leaves the casinos heading into the last game of the weekend up 20.6 million dollars. A nice little weekend take for a content business.

The Eagles/Vikings is the most lopsided game of the weekend, with the Eagles getting 71% of the money wagered according to covers or 39 million of our 55 assumed (Side note: the reality is this game will most likely be the heaviest bet game of the week, especially if the Ravens cover). If the Eagles cover, the casinos lose 19.4 million dollars, leaving them up a mere 1.2 million for the weekend. If the Vikings cover, the casinos rake in 24.6 million and they go up on the bettors 45.2 million heading into next weekend.

For that reason I heavy lean towards the Vikings, but then throw in the following:

• The Eagles are getting tons of hype because of their wins over the Giants (when the Giants had very little to play for) and the Cowboys. The Cowboys had 28 potential turn-around points in that game (the Romo fumble returned 70 yards for a TD and the Barber fumble returned 97 yards). Everyone forgets the egg they laid in week 16 against the Redskins, which, without a Herculean help in week 17, would have put them out of the playoffs.
• Andy Reid looks confused in ideal conditions, imagine what will happen in the Metrodome with 80,000 drunk, screaming Minnesota fans.
• What if Minnesota lined-up and ran Adrian Peterson thirty times at the middle of that defense? How about if they mix in screens in obvious blitzing situations? And what if they forgot about throwing timing passes and just chucked it deep a few times to keep the defense honest? Doesn’t that sound like recipe for disaster for the Eagles?
• Minnesota shuts down Westbrook and leaves the game in Donovan McNabb’s hands. I like the Vikes chances in that scenario.

At the end of the day, I choose “the house”. A pretty safe bet since the last time I checked the price tag of building a new casino was in the neighborhood of 2 billion dollars. That isn’t coming by losing games like this.

Minnesota 16 Philadelphia 14

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