Making picks for week 17 in the NFL is a little like picking pre-season games. Some teams have everything to play for and would seemingly be “locks”. However, history has taught us that more often than not teams in that situation are “tight”. And showing up to any sporting event “tight” will get you beat every time.
More than anything week 17 is about organizations as a whole – the good ones will be predictable in week 17 and the bad ones, well, they’re will be equally as predictable.
I need to tread water this week to stay over the Mendoza line (.500). All in all it has been a disappointing year, I had a strong start but the wheels feel off the cart in the middle of the year leaving me with the mediocre record.
Oakland +13.0 over Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is going to win this game, but I have a feeling the Raiders will keep it close for a couple of reasons – 1. The Raiders are young and in general younger teams tend to play week 17, non-pressure type games much better than say week 4, key divisional games and 2. I am not sure the Bucs can beat anyone by 13 points.
In addition, Jon Gruden loves to rest his players for the playoffs, so he will shut it down if he feels comfortable early in the game.
Green Bay -11.0 over Detroit – Packer fans are hoping for a blowout so they can leave early and be home to watch the Dolphins eliminate the Jets.
Green Bay has plenty of motivation in this game; the share-holders (Packer fans) will be none too happy if the “Pack” lose this game at home to a winless team.
Dallas +1.0 over Philadelphia – Mark it down right now – the NFL 2008 is going to give us a Chargers verse Cowboys Super Bowl. I mean honestly, the Cowboys crapped the bed last week and still control their playoff fate. Are you kidding me?
What makes the Cowboys any different than the Steelers of 2005, Colts of 2006 or the Giants of 2007? Effectively the days of the conference top seeds being a lock to go the Super Bowl are long gone. The following formula seems work just fine:
- Sneak into the playoffs based on other teams ineptitude
- Catch a break in the first round
- Upset an over-rated, under-prepared top seed in the divisional playoff and conference championship rounds
- Ride the wave of adrenaline in the Super Bowl
The comparisons between the 2006 Colts are startling – both lost the previous as a top seed and favorite to go to the Super Bowl, both started the following year out looking un-beatable and both hit mid-season slumps and were effectively left for dead. I’m just sayin’. . .
Minnesota -7.0 over NY Giants – If I ever play in a fantasy league that goes through week 17, I would use the odds-maker line to help me determine if a team is going to rest their players. This line tells me the Giants are planning to rest. I thought Tom Coughlin learned something last year when the Giants played balls out in week 17.
Houston -3.0 over Chicago – Maybe the Bears should quiet down that talk of a long term extension for Kyle Orton.
New Orleans +1.5 over Carolina – And when the following happens
Atlanta -14.0 over St. Louis – the Falcons will be NFC South champions.
The Rams are so much better off with Chris Long than Matt Ryan. To be fair the Rams had no idea Marc Bulger was going to turn into Jim Everett, circa his days with the Saints, but there is no viable backup to Bulger. Which allows to Bulger to continue starting even thought he gives the Rams a virtual zero percent chance of winning.
Cincinnati -2.5 over Kansas City – I actually think the Bengals have sacked up and played for Marvin Lewis’ job. The thought of losing the “country club” atmosphere has motivated the Bungles.
Baltimore -11.0 over Jacksonville – I knew the Jags would show up at least once before the end of the season, unfortunately for them the Colts were just too good. Don’t count on the Jags providing much resistance this week, however.
I love the potential quarterbacks in the 2008 playoffs – Joe “easy money” Flacco, Matt “retirement score” Ryan, Jake “my team cannot overcome me in the playoffs” Delhomme and Tony “I will do something incredibly stupid at the most critical time that will kill my team’s chances” Romo.
Tennessee -3.0 over Indianapolis – No coach can pull off the week 17 exhibition like Tony Dungy.
I think both teams will rest players, but the difference here is Tony Dungy will treat this game like a pre-season game and Fisher will at least attempt to win. The odds-makers know that and made the Titans a favorite.
Pittsburgh -11.0 over Cleveland – You know it’s bad when a coach has already made it clear he will rest players and the line is still double digits. And I don’t flinch laying the points.
Miami +2.5 over NY Jets – I love that NFL flexed this game to late afternoon. What it means is that if everything goes as expected in the morning with Pats and Ravens winning – the Jets will be eliminated. Which means that Patriot hater Eric Mangini will tank against the Dolphins (as if he needs to intentionally tank).
Buffalo +5.5 over New England – This line screams at you to lay the points. The Pats will win, but I bet the Bills have a chance to win at the end.
Arizona -6.5 over Seattle – Imagine for a minute that the 49ers do not bungle that last minute earlier in the year the against Cardinals – this would be a must-win for the Cardinals. Arizona has not looked the same since the second half of the Carolina game. And Whisenhunt looks like he is in over his head.
But I do think they right the ship somewhat this week.
Washington +3.0 over San Francisco – Singletary’s got the job, Zorn is still on the hot seat.
Denver +8.0 over San Diego – These two meeting to determine the AFC West champ seems like justice after what happened in Denver week two. Throw in a dash of the two starting quarterbacks hate each other, a pinch of the general dislike everyone has of the Broncos and this should be a fantastic way to close out the 2008 regular season.
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 120-115-3
Best Bet: Miami +2.5
Best Bets: 9-6-1
