It appears that there are several teams with “nothing to play for” this week and those respective coaches are planning to rests their players. The list includes:
Arizona – Right, they’re locked into the #4 seed in the NFC and it’s appropriate for them to rest, since they’ve played a grueling schedule this year. What a crock! They’ll finish 8-8 with no wins over playoff teams and four severe beatings (NY Giants, Philadelphia, Minnesota and New England) down the stretch. Unless the Rams or Seahawks sneak into that #5 seed through some loophole in the system the Cardinals 2008 playoff appearance will be short lived, as in 60 minutes.
Denver – If San Diego losses, Mike Shanahan is on record as saying he will rest his starters. Bad move Mikey. Why? Well, once you tell a player they’re going to rest if “such and such” happens and “such and such” looks likely to occur, they start planning to rest. What happens if “such and such” doesn’t happen? They come out flat.
Tennessee – WTF? They’re fighting for home field advantage!
Now, I will admit I am significantly biased against resting players primarily because of the fantasy impact. However, I think it has been proven over time that more than one week of rest for NFL players defeats the purpose.
Bottom line, NFL players are among the toughest sob’s in the world and week after week they endure a punishment equivalent to a 50 MPH car head-on collision. And they’re programmed to deal (and play through) with pain. Once they get some time off and start to heal, their bodies tell them they are in the off-season. And guess what, none of them want to get back out there is freezing temperatures and get hit or hit other players.
Look back to the Colts in 2005 and 2007 both times they were locked into their seeds by week 16. Both times Tony Dungy decided to rest his players beginning in week 16, thus giving most of the key players four weeks off. Both times they came out flat in their first playoff game and lost.
How about the 2006 Colts? They had to play week 16 and Dungy could only give his guys a week off. What happened? They won the Super Bowl.
The 2007 Buccaneers are another example – they treated the last three (yes, THREE) games of the regular season like they’re pre-season games. Check that make it FOUR straight games, because they looked like a team playing in the first pre-season game in the playoffs.
And didn’t the Giants and Patriots prove this point last year? Both teams went balls-to-the-wall in week 17 and then met five weeks later in the Super Bowl.
Can’t the NFL have to step in and start forcing teams to play their starters at least through week 16? We are already watching a watered-down product most weeks, do we really need to tack two more pre-season games on the schedule?
Oh well, at least teams that pull this resting bit are easy marks in the playoffs.
I had a very below average 5-9-2 week last week. Plus, I am off to a 0-2 start thanks to the most disappointing team of 2008, Jacksonville and the most poorly coached team in 2008, Dallas.
This week: 0-2 (Thanks, J-Ville and Dallas)
Pittsburgh -2.5 over Tennessee – I think this line is a clear indication that the Titans are resting key players.
It’s appropriate since Jeff Fisher knows his team has already peaked and has no shot.
Kansas City +3.5 over Miami – The classic “look-ahead” game, part I. Both the Dolphins and the Jets will fail to cover this week and probably both lose, setting the Pats to win the division.
New England -8.0 over Arizona – First off, the Cardinals at full strength would have a real problem keeping this game close, but the Cardinals with their stars resting have no chance to be close in this game.
Didn’t the Cardinals rest last week? Over/Under on Kurt Warner fumbles today – 3.5. I just maxed out my ELOC to bet the over!
Cincinnati +3.0 over Cleveland – The Burger King “which coach will be fired first” bowl!
Tampa Bay -3.5 over San Diego – Seems like there are too many 3.5 point spreads this week. A 3.5 point line for the home team is solely for the purposes of enticing action on the road team. And what rule can we apply we the action is overwhelming on one team – “billion dollar casinos are not built by winners.”
Philadelphia -5.0 over Washington – Jim Zorn is on the hot seat, wow, and just a mere 10 weeks earlier everyone was in love with this guy. Including me, but then I saw an old “game of the week” between the Packers and Bears, with Zorn starting for the Packers. Zorn looked so bad, I almost wonder if some of his players saw that same game and now are thinking “This guy has the audacity to criticize me!”
San Francisco -4.5 over St. Louis – I proclaim the Cardinals reign as division champions over in 2009. Yes, the 49ers will ascend to the top of this ant hill next year.
The only question about this game is whether or not Singletary let’s Martz run up the score.
Detroit +7.0 over New Orleans – The Lions last chance to avoid 0-16. I wonder if the Lions trademarked “0-16″ like the Pats did with “19-0″.
Seattle +3.5 over New York Jets – Isn’t it ironic that both the Jets and Dolphins are giving inferior teams 3.5 points this week?
Oakland +7.0 over Houston – I am pretty sure the Raiders have packed it in, but I think getting seven points at home from a team like the Texans is the type of slap in the face that will motivate them.
Buffalo -6.0 over Denver -6.0 – I am gambling that San Diego losses and this becomes a pre-season game. Plus, the Bills are feisty.
Atlanta +3.0 over Minnesota – Minnesota is a little too high after their big win in Arizona, so much so that they think they can beat good teams with Tavaris Jackson.
NY Giants -3.5 over Carolina – This looked like a field goal game to me, until I saw the clever odds-makers added a .5 point to the line now I like the G-Men to- dominate. I don’t trust Jake Delhomme on the road. And neither do Panther fans.
Chicago -4.0 over Green Bay – This line is too low, given that we know the following about the Packers – 1. If the Packers show up to play, they will still find a way to keep the Bears in the game and 2. Towards the end of the game Aaron Rodgers will make a key mistake that will destroy the Packers chances.
Last Week: 5-9-2
Season: 113-106-3
Best Bet: Chicago -4
Best Bets: 9-5-1
