I am still alive in three of my five fantasy leagues. Since there are twenty teams left in my five leagues I thought it would be interesting to do a breakdown of the teams left and the individual players left on each team.
First off, the cross-over teams:
- Fearsome Foursome – five teams, made the playoffs in all five leagues, survived in three
- Desperados – four leagues, playoffs in one league, still alive
- Convicts – two leagues, playoffs in one league, still alive
- The Dark Side – two leagues, playoffs in both leagues, still alive in one
- Da Boyz From NYC – three leagues, playoffs in two leagues, still alive in both
- Sugar Daddy’s – three leagues, playoffs in one, eliminated
- Annihilators – two leagues, playoffs in one, still alive
- Beantown Warpigs – two leagues, playoffs in one, eliminated
- The GSW Rule – two leagues, did not make the playoffs in either
There are 37 single franchise owners in the five leagues, 11 still alive in the playoffs.
Next, I pulled the rosters for every remaining team to see the common players still alive. No individual player is still alive in all five leagues, but ten players are alive in four leagues:
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It is no surprise that DeAngelo Williams is on this list, as he has single handedly carried several fantasy teams down the stretch. Williams was not even an every week starter as late as week five, now Williams is like the equivalent of a homeowner discovering oil on their property. Equally not surprising is Jonathon Stewart is on the list,as three of the four DeAngelo owners have the hand-cuff.
The list has two bona-fide studs Larry Fitzgerald, who might be the most consistent fantasy player ever, and Bryan Westbrook, who has been on a tear the past couple of weeks. And to think the “experts” were suggesting benching Westbrook before the Arizona game in week 12. Only one lucky owner has both of these guys as he heads to battle in the semis.
I dismiss Vinatieri and Norwood as merely coincidence. Zach Miller and Bo Scaife have provided huge value at low cost to owners, as both these guys were either late round draft picks or available on the wire.
Dwayne Bowe has produced consistent #2 receiver numbers this, but again more of a coincidence.
And there is Reggie Bush and his uplifting performance on Thursday. Bush did his best to destroy the fantasy hopes and dreams of those four owners.
Other notables:
- Joseph Addai – Alive in ZERO leagues. That’s right Mr. Addai is one of the biggest bust in the history of fantasy football. The “experts” were secretly (uh, not so much) telling everyone back in week 10 “buy low” on Addai, because of the Colts schedule weeks 13-16 (Browns, Bengals, Lions and Jaguars). And how has Joe done in the first two weeks? 103 total yards! It is time for the fantasy community to realize this guy is nothing more than the lesser half of a time-share.
- Clinton Portis – One league. If the season was shortened to eight games, Clinton would have been a champ in every league.
- Matt Forte – Alive in three leagues, but made the playoffs in four and narrowly missed in the fifth. Forte treated his owners to a consistent season, but his Thursday (under) performance may have popped a cap in a couple seasons.
- Brandon Marshall/Andre Johnson – There are some guys you badly want out of the playoffs – Marshall and Johnson are examples. Both remain in only one league and coincidentally they are on the same team. I feel fortunate to have survived both of them last week.
- Brandon Jacobs/Frank Gore – Both alive in two leagues. Unfortunately, both are primed to let their owners down when they need them most.
- Kurt Warner – One measly league! Very surprising considering Matt Lienart was drafted ahead of Warner is most drafts.
- Randy Moss – Still alive in three leagues. Kudos to these owners – they either had a plan B or picked up Moss on clearance after week 2.
- Torry Holt – Still alive in three leagues, but could be alive in all five since his is available on waivers in the other two leagues. Wall 1 Holt 0.
- Braylon Edwards – What post would be complete without a reference to my beloved “Kid Drop”. Still alive in two leagues, but fighting for playing time with the likes of Roscoe Parrish, Reggie Williams, Jason Hill and Bobby Engram.
Before the predictions here are five players most likely to produce the “no effing way” game this weekend
Note: I had a question on what qualifies as a “no effing way” game. The best way to answer that is to imagine you getting ready to watch the Bucs/Panthers game Monday night and you are playing against DeAngelo Williams. You have a comfortable lead going into the game and by the start of the 4th quarter you are peeking ahead to your semi-final playoff matchup. With about 2:21 seconds left in the game, you jump up and yell at the TV “No Effing Way!!” as you watch DeAngelo break 15 tackles on his way to the end zone. So while points scored are critical, there is a component of helplessness as you watch a player crush your fantasy season.
Another (bonus) note: Same scenario as above, but instead of watching the game at home you are a cameraman working on the sidelines. DeAngelo happens to break free on the sideline where you are positioned, does it cross your mind to run on the field and tackle him. I would do it, if all it cost me was a fine and maybe a night in jail. The hidden bonus – you would be a legend in the fantasy community. Another hidden bonus – the Bucs would strongly consider signing you.
Week 15 candidates:
- Peyton Manning – Last time Manning faced the Lions he threw six touchdowns. Anyone facing Manning, Wayne, Harrison, Clark, and even that Robinson guy, should be extremely worried this week.
- Dominic Rhodes – Not so much because I think he will put up a line like 180 and 3, but more because if you are playing against him this week part of you thinks – “great, I hope he doesn’t change his lineup” – then you watch Rhodes put up 100 and 2 touchdowns.
- Clintion Portis – You know what happens when a player publicly complains? Bad things, man, bad things! Speaking of publicly complaining. . .
- Terrell Owens – Back in the late 90s when Jerry Rice was past his prime and was getting chased down from behind by defensive tackles, he would always have a huge day the week he complained about not getting the ball. The 49ers knew he was done, but they still caved and made him the focal point that week. The difference in Dallas, Owens is still in his prime and has the owner on his side – Jerry Jones basically called out Romo this week and told him “get Owens the ball”.
- Bryan Westbrook – Westbrook plays Monday night, at home against a terrible team, so probability for the “no effing way” game is off charts. If you are playing against Westbrook, what type of lead do you need to feel safe? Enough to counter for a 200 combined and 4 TDs!
Five relative unknowns that could surprise:
- Seneca Wallace – Against the Rams. ‘Nuff said.
- Jerious Norwood – One of the ten players alive in four fantasy leagues. Although he isn’t currently in any lineup, he has the potential to go nuts against Bucs.
- Davone Bess – Quick what team does Bess play for? Exactly. Quietly, Bess has put up nice numbers this past couple of weeks. Look for a similar numbers this week and a TD.
- Derrick Ward – Gets the start in place of Brandon Jacobs this week. The nice thing about Ward is that he is the third down back as well, so you know he is going to get plenty of touches.
- Maurice Morris –
Against the Rams. ‘Nuff said.
Five fantasy killahs:
- Reggie Bush – Shades of LT last January as Bush sat on the sideline and watched Pierre Thomas blossom. Nice job, Pierre!
- Tony Romo – Only if he refuses to throw the ball to anyone other than his butt-buddy, Witten.
- Ben Roethlisberger – This game against the Ravens might affect Big Ben for his week 16 matchup as well.
- DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart – I have a feeling this “dynamic duo” is going to fall flat this week. Mind you, I have no facts to back this up and the matchup looks as appetizing as a “blooming onion”, but something tells me that owners of these two guys will be very disappointed come Monday morning.
- Michael Turner – I know, I know, the Bucs run defense blows. But stay with me here – the Bucs were gashed mostly on the outside last week because they lost containment, Turner is an inside runner, Turner is on the bench for more that 50% of the Falcons offensive plays and if Turner doesn’t find the end-zone he is a bust.
Week 14 recap:
“No effing way” picks – Nailed Manning and Marshall. Missed badly on Forte and Peterson. So-so on Warner and Brees.
“Unknowns” – Hit a “walk-off” with Branch. Hightower found the end-zone, but little else. The rest are still “unknowns”.
“Killahs” – Nailed Barber, Portis and “The Browns” (really that wasn’t fair, I mean who on earth would have been counting on a Brown last week). Thomas Jones and McNabb both did enough to help their owners
On to the predictions, this week every one of my leagues is included: (I used the ESPN projections to compile an “ESPN” score and Caveman’s projections)
Banner Fantasy League
Will the drama of the Banner Fantasy league playoff semi-finals continue in 2008? Let’s flashback one year ago and the semi-final game between Kristi Kremes and Wretched Blood Hens. Both teams were done except for Kremes, who had Bryan Westbrook still playing a Sunday afternoon game. Down by 2.42 points, Kremes seemingly needed a miracle to pull out the game against the Hens. Then it happened Westbrook took a handoff and broke through the first line of defense. Not a single Cowboy was around. At this point, no one was standing in Kremes way of advancing to the Banner Bowl and finishing an admirable second place.
Then it happened, Westbrook knelt at the one – 24 yard gain – 2.4 points and a .02 loss for Kremes. This is perhaps the ultimate tale of fantasy woe ever known to man.
The league “Titans” all advanced in week one. Both games this week feature division rivals – #1 Hulkamaniacs against #5 Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic and #2 Tazmanians verse #3 Unfrozen Caveman
Hulkamaniacs v. Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic
| Hulkamaniacs |
Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic |
||||
| Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
| Manning, Peyton IND QB |
25.96 |
28.00 |
Schaub, Matt HOU QB |
11.66 |
9.00 |
| Orton, Kyle CHI QB |
18.76 |
14.00 |
Warner, Kurt ARI QB |
28.08 |
29.20 |
| Johnson, Larry KCC RB |
8.30 |
17.50 |
Bush, Reggie NOS RB |
8.80 |
12.50 |
| Turner, Michael ATL RB |
20.90 |
6.50 |
Forte, Matt CHI RB |
21.40 |
23.00 |
| Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB |
24.90 |
14.70 |
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB |
39.40 |
31.50 |
| Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR |
21.30 |
11.40 |
Holmes, Santonio PIT WR |
4.30 |
8.00 |
| Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR |
18.10 |
13.40 |
Mason, Derrick BAL WR |
12.00 |
8.70 |
| Shockey, Jeremy NOS TE |
10.00 |
12.50 |
Miller, Zach OAK TE |
14.60 |
13.00 |
| Carpenter, Dan MIA PK |
16.00 |
12.00 |
Bryant, Matt TBB PK |
13.00 |
13.00 |
| Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def |
7.00 |
9.00 |
Panthers, Carolina CAR Def |
2.00 |
5.00 |
| HFA (Home Field Advantage) | 8.00 | 8.00 | |||
| Total: | 179.22 | 147.00 |
Total: |
155.24 | 152.90 |
Pherguson is living a charmed life and Caveman predicts that string of good fortune continues at least one more week, while ESPN differs and predicts Hulkamaniacs will play for the prestigious Banner Cup.
While the “experts” are close with Caveman on Pherguson, we vary wildly on Hulk. The most notable – Michael Turner – Caveman believes Turner will struggle, ESPN believes Turner will go off. The two prognosticators also differ on DeAngelo Williams, with Caveman proudly displaying his church bell sized cojones and predicting an off game for Williams. The “experts”, with their “Grape Nuts”, played it safe with Williams and predicted a monster game.
Pherguson has to like having the last laugh with Westbrook against that porous Browns defense.
Thursday night update: Hulk is off Caveman’s pace by 14.42 and ESPN by 16.68, while Pherguson is down 15.10 according to Caveman and 9.80 by ESPN’s standard.
Tazmanians v. Unfrozen Caveman
| Unfrozen Caveman |
Tazmanians |
||||
| Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
| Cassel, Matt NEP QB |
14.46 |
8.32 |
Rivers, Philip SDC QB |
20.92 |
21.12 |
| Jackson, Steven STL RB |
12.50 |
20.00 |
Faulk, Kevin NEP RB |
12.60 |
10.50 |
| Bess, Davone MIA WR |
12.90 |
11.80 |
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB |
5.80 |
13.00 |
| Bryant, Antonio TBB WR |
21.30 |
12.40 |
Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB |
20.00 |
27.50 |
| Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR |
22.70 |
23.60 |
Wayne, Reggie IND WR |
19.50 |
28.00 |
| Owens, Terrell DAL WR |
17.50 |
23.00 |
Welker, Wes NEP WR |
14.80 |
14.40 |
| Cooley, Chris WAS TE |
18.10 |
11.70 |
Stevens, Jerramy TBB TE |
7.80 |
7.70 |
| Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE |
27.10 |
28.00 |
Reed, Jeff PIT PK |
12.00 |
12.00 |
| Vinatieri, Adam IND PK |
5.00 |
9.00 |
Chargers, San Diego SDC Def |
4.00 |
8.00 |
| Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def |
2.00 |
10.00 |
Redskins, Washington WAS Def |
9.00 |
11.00 |
|
HFA (Home Field Advantage) |
2.00 | 2.00 | |||
| Total: | 153.56 | 157.82 |
Total: |
128.42 | 155.22 |
The ESPN projections have this game as a rout, while Caveman grunts out “Not so fast”. The biggest differences for Caveman are Reggie Wayne, due to break out and Antonio Bryant, due to fall back.
The key to this game might end up being quarterback for Caveman, if Cassel can match Rivers it will be very tough for Tazmanians to keep up the pace.
Caveman fires the last shot with Owens and Dallas defense on Sunday night and keeping with Banner tradition the game will end something like this:
Trailing by .4 points late in the game, the Cowboys sack Manning, force a fumble and recover it to give Caveman a 2.6 point victory
Neither team had a player Thursday night.
Sizzling Fantasy League
The sixth and seventh seeds survived round 1 of the playoff and are now poised to take on the beasts of the league (#4 DA BOYZ FROM NYC and #1 Desperados)
BeefGravy AllStars v. Desperados
| BeefGravy AllStars |
Desperados |
||||
| Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
| Manning, Peyton IND QB |
13.88 |
18.00 |
Rivers, Philip SDC QB |
10.16 |
9.40 |
| Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB |
19.65 |
17.00 |
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB |
2.50 |
9.50 |
| McClain, Le’Ron BAL RB |
9.15 |
8.85 |
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB |
17.35 |
9.75 |
| Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR |
15.15 |
6.20 |
Bess, Davone MIA WR |
7.45 |
6.90 |
| Ginn Jr., Ted MIA WR |
10.80 |
3.50 |
Jackson, DeSean PHI WR |
4.90 |
4.50 |
| Hester, Devin CHI WR |
9.70 |
6.50 |
Johnson, Andre HOU WR |
15.95 |
16.50 |
| Jennings, Greg GBP WR |
13.30 |
14.20 |
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR |
16.30 |
18.25 |
| Boss, Kevin NYG TE |
7.00 |
3.05 |
Carlson, John SEA TE |
3.00 |
11.90 |
| Vinatieri, Adam IND PK |
5.00 |
9.00 |
Bryant, Matt TBB PK |
13.00 |
13.00 |
| Dolphins, Miami MIA Def |
(1.00) |
(10.00) |
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def |
(5.00) |
5.00 |
| Total: | 102.63 | 76.30 |
Total: |
85.61 | 104.70 |
ESPN and I differ almost inversely on this game. I guess we will see who the real experts after this week – a team of self-proclaimed fantasy gurus or a man who recently learned to stop eating his own, err, uh waste.
Thursday night update: BGAS is off Caveman’s pace by 2.2 and ESPN’s by 5.4.
Daemons v. DA BOYZ FROM NYC
| Daemons |
DA BOYZ FROM NYC |
||||
| Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
| Cutler, Jay DEN QB |
10.38 |
7.60 |
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB |
1.28 |
1.20 |
| Bush, Reggie NOS RB |
5.10 |
8.00 |
Jones, Thomas NYJ RB |
16.80 |
13.00 |
| Dunn, Warrick TBB RB |
11.45 |
4.50 |
Slaton, Steve HOU RB |
11.50 |
9.75 |
| Forte, Matt CHI RB |
13.20 |
15.00 |
Washington, Leon NYJ RB |
2.00 |
4.25 |
| Jackson, Steven STL RB |
5.85 |
13.00 |
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB |
31.20 |
23.50 |
| Gage, Justin TEN WR |
9.30 |
6.50 |
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR |
15.85 |
17.30 |
| Moore, Lance NOS WR |
13.75 |
6.75 |
Moss, Santana WAS WR |
6.60 |
11.40 |
| Gates, Antonio SDC TE |
11.75 |
12.15 |
Keller, Dustin NYJ TE |
2.00 |
13.60 |
| Gould, Robbie CHI PK |
13.00 |
11.00 |
Feely, Jay NYJ PK |
14.00 |
10.00 |
| Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def |
10.00 |
12.00 |
Jets, New York NYJ Def |
(7.00) |
7.00 |
| Total: | 103.78 | 96.50 |
Total: |
94.23 | 111.00 |
Another game where the ESPN prediction is way off the mark. What’s so funny about their projection – they predict touchdowns for Gage, Moore and Dunn, yet Steven Jackson, who has a better matchup than all of those players, will not find the end-zone.
They called the Seahawks/Rams a shootout – “both teams marching up and down the field at will” (ESPN.COM). So somehow those same diarrhea defenses will stiffen in the red zone? And even if the Rams only score the one touchdown, isn’t like about 99.9% likely that it is Jackson?
This game comes down to Monday night and Westbrook v. the Eagles, if DA BOYZ are within 11 points they are looking good.
Thursday night update: Daemons is off to a terrible start, with their four guys amassing a mere 21 points, compared with ESPN’s projection of 45.05 (-24.05) and Caveman’s 40.75 (-19.75).
Dry Heat Fantasy League
The top four seeds play in the final four this week – with the top seed Annihilators taking on division rival and #4 seed Cleveland Steamers. In the other semi-final, Convicts (#2) face off with DA BOYZ FROM NYC (#3).
Cleveland Steamers v. Annihilators
The Steamers handed Annihilators two of their three losses during the regular season. It is hard it is to beat a team three times in one season, but the Steamers caught a huge break with Brandon Jacobs sitting out this week. Steamers start Jacobs replacement, Derrick Ward, while Annihilators lose one of their top guns.
| Cleveland Steamers |
Annihilators |
||||
| Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
| Campbell, Jason WAS QB |
13.50 |
11.60 |
Cassel, Matt NEP QB |
9.28 |
7.90 |
| Turner, Michael ATL RB |
20.90 |
6.50 |
Choice, Tashard DAL RB |
3.50 |
5.30 |
| Ward, Derrick NYG RB |
25.40 |
25.60 |
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB |
15.70 |
26.40 |
| Westbrook, Brian PHI RB |
30.40 |
29.00 |
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB |
5.30 |
13.00 |
| Breaston, Steve ARI WR |
8.40 |
7.50 |
Avery, Donnie STL WR |
5.70 |
2.50 |
| Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR |
14.60 |
9.90 |
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR |
24.00 |
21.00 |
| Welker, Wes NEP WR |
11.30 |
10.40 |
Gaffney, Jabar NEP WR |
3.30 |
4.00 |
| White, Roddy ATL WR |
17.30 |
18.00 |
Wayne, Reggie IND WR |
17.00 |
25.00 |
| Scheffler, Tony DEN TE |
7.70 |
19.50 |
Scaife, Bo TEN TE |
6.10 |
8.80 |
| Longwell, Ryan MIN PK |
11.00 |
9.00 |
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK |
5.00 |
9.00 |
| Total: | 160.50 | 147.00 |
Total: |
94.88 | 122.90 |
Once again, ESPN has this game way out of whack. Bottom line – it is going to be tough for Annihilators, but they have play-makers capable of “no effing way” type games. How much does this game change if Adrian Peterson runs for 2-fifty and three TDs in the desert? Or Donnie Avery has one of his 6-163-2 games?
These are the types of games that always go haywire in fantasy, just when you think something looks like it should happen the opposite actually does.
I stick with Steamers but I would not be surprised if those above scores are reversed – that is just the way fantasy works!
| DA BOYZ FROM NYC |
Convicts |
||||
| Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
Player |
ESPN |
Caveman |
| Romo, Tony DAL QB |
10.54 |
12.20 |
Garrard, David JAC QB |
12.96 |
15.50 |
| Slaton, Steve HOU RB |
16.90 |
11.50 |
Barber, Marion DAL RB |
8.60 |
15.50 |
| White, LenDale TEN RB |
11.20 |
11.50 |
Faulk, Kevin NEP RB |
11.10 |
8.00 |
| Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB |
23.90 |
15.20 |
McClain, Le’Ron BAL RB |
13.10 |
11.70 |
| Evans, Lee BUF WR |
17.40 |
7.60 |
Bryant, Antonio TBB WR |
17.80 |
9.90 |
| Holt, Torry STL WR |
13.40 |
7.30 |
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR |
19.20 |
19.10 |
| Jackson, DeSean PHI WR |
7.80 |
7.00 |
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA WR |
13.60 |
6.50 |
| Moss, Randy NEP WR |
13.50 |
16.50 |
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN WR |
5.10 |
6.70 |
| Keller, Dustin NYJ TE |
7.30 |
19.20 |
Daniels, Owen HOU TE |
9.00 |
10.70 |
| Dawson, Phil CLE PK |
10.00 |
4.00 |
Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK |
7.00 |
13.00 |
| Total: | 131.94 | 112.00 |
Total: |
117.46 | 116.60 |
I have this game too close to call, while the ESPNxperts have DA BOYZ coming out with a comfortable win.
Bottom line – this game comes down to the quarterbacks, everything else will be about equal. IF DA BOYZ and turn that 3.3 deficit into a 1.7 advantage they win.
At the end of the day, I like the Convicts to prevail.
