Fantasy Playoff Predictions – Week 1

The fantasy playoffs begin for my five leagues this weekend and I am fortunate enough to be in the playoffs in all five. In my five leagues there are six other owners who cross over in multiple leagues, only one owner made the playoffs in each league and that was a mere two leagues. So, five for five is pretty impressive. That is the good news. The bad news – my matchups suck in every league this week.

I have never believed in trying set my roster for the fantasy playoffs. Why? Well, first off you can’t do it before the season because you never know how good a defense will be. Example, Pittsburgh who last year gave up 145 points in their last five games, coming into the year the thought was that defense was old and not very good. So much for that!

If you try and trade for guys who have favorable matchups, you will most likely pay too much. For example, Adrian Peterson (more on him in a minute) would have cost more than most owners would be willing to pay at mid-season, if you can find an owner willing to part with him.

Finally, you never know in the NFL. How about this for an example – Denver goes on the road and beat a very good Falcons team and then lays an egg the next week against a terrible Raiders team. So the Falcons win was a fluke, right? Wrong, the Broncos easily handle the Jets in New York the very next week.

With that in mind here are six players most likely to come up with the “no effing way” game this week:

1. Adrian Peterson – I can see something along the lines of 250 yards rushing and 4 TDs, on his first four carries. Seriously, I play against AP in one of my leagues and I am praying the Lions hold him to 150 and 3 TDs. I can live with that.
2. Kurt Warner – Kurt’s not the type of guy who holds a grudge, but you know he wants to show his former team what they are missing. While “back foot” Bulger throws bad ball, after bad ball, Kurt will go through the Rams defense like milk through someone who is lactose intolerant.
3. Matt Forte – Did you see the Jaguars quit on Monday? And that was in a pleasant weather. The weather in Chi-town is going to be brutal and my guess is the Jags will “mail-it-in”.
4. Drew Brees – Brees is a different player in the dome and the game against the Falcons sets up as a shootout.
5. Brandon Marshall – This guy has been just above-average since the 18-166-1, but in the back of mind I know he has that in him. Plus, I traded him the week before that game and play that same team this week.
6. Peyton Manning – Fantasy teams that were fortunate enough to play against manning last week got an early Christmas present. Playing against him this week will be more like a surprise visit to the dentist.

    

Five relative unknowns that could surprise:

 

1. Domenik Hixon – The Eagles have always struggled against Plax and Hixon is like a motivated Plax.
2. Tim Hightower – The Cardinals will have no problems moving the football Sunday and Hightower should return to fantasy stud.
3. Roy E. Williams – This might be the breakout game for Williams. The Steelers will be physical with Terrell Owens and effectively take him out of the game.
4. Jason Hill – The 49ers wide receiver will have plenty of opportunities to pole up some garbage numbers this weekend against an average Jets secondary.
5. Deion Branch – Any secondary with Delta O’Neal posing as the number one cornerback is vulnerable.
6. Willis McGahee – What you talking about Willis? Relative unknown in the sense that week-to-week it is unknown whether Willis will get a carry. However, I have figured out this John Harbaugh guy – every other week Willis gets the bulk of the carries. Look for a 120 and 2 TD.

 

And five playoff killahs:

 

1. Marion Barber III – He is hurting and the Steelers are one of the best defenses in the NFL. I can see Barber getting three carries for 10 yards and then sitting out the rest of the game.
2. Donovan McNabb – Last time he played in New York against the Giants, he killed me in my fantasy game. And that was against the Giants, PW172007 (Pre-Week 17, 2007 when the morphed into this unbeatable dynasty).
3. Clinton Portis – Clinton is a walking “operation man” right now. Unless your league awards points for minutes logged with the trainer, you might want to sit “Dr. Funkenmeister”.
4. Torry Holt – Just kidding! I can’t resist taking a shot at the Rams.
5. The Browns – Ken Dorsey is the new starting quarterback for the Browns. Nuff said. And every Jamal Lewis carry is like an audition for Dancing with the washed-up running backs.
   
6. Thomas Jones – A bit of a surprise, but I remember what the 49ers did to Adrian Peterson in week 14 last year – 3 yards!
   

On to the first round playoff predictions, I used ESPN’s weekly projections as well as my own personal projections.

Hulkamaniacs v. Steagles541 – The top-seeded Hulkamaniacs have a huge advantage at quarterback with Peyton Manning against Jason Campbell.

The Hulkster also brings an impressive lineup of running backs with Michael Turner and DeAngelo William. In addition, he has Larry Johnson, who when he’s not beating the hell out of women plays running back for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Steagles541 is over-matched in this game and is certainly not helped by 14 home field advantage Hulk receives. The best hope for them is getting an above average effort from Sammy Morris and Willie Parker.

Player	ESPN	Caveman		Player	ESPN	Caveman
Manning, Peyton IND QB	19.96	23.00		Campbell, Jason WAS QB	11.58	10.00
Orton, Kyle CHI QB	17.74	17.20		Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB	14.60	22.00
Johnson, Larry KCC RB	17.00	17.50		Slaton, Steve HOU RB	23.20	19.00
Turner, Michael ATL RB	16.80	24.00		Morris, Sammy NEP RB	15.50	16.00
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB	23.50	16.60		Parker, Willie PIT RB	11.20	9.20
Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR	17.30	9.00		Breaston, Steve ARI WR	9.20	20.00
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR	13.80	7.00		Evans, Lee BUF WR	20.30	19.00
Scaife, Bo TEN TE	10.20	7.50		Heap, Todd BAL TE	5.00	5.50
Carpenter, Dan MIA PK	9.00	8.00		Elam, Jason ATL PK	11.00	11.00
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def	9.00	12.00		Bears, Chicago CHI Def	7.00	10.00
Home Field	14.00	14.00
Total:	168.30	155.80		Total:	128.58	141.70

 

I see the game a bit closer than the *experts* at ESPN! At the end of the day the Hulkamaniacs advance.

Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic v. Evil Beagles

The matchup of the week – as Beagles boasts three of the potential “no effing way” players, while Pherguson has two.

Beagles is my favorite to take home the Banner Cup this year, so I would like nothing more than to see him get bounced in the opening. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening especially after the Thursday game produced a zero from Antonio Gates.

Player	ESPN	Caveman		Player	ESPN	Caveman
Warner, Kurt ARI QB	28.44	29.60		Cutler, Jay DEN QB	23.46	20.40
Bush, Reggie NOS RB	8.80	13.30		McNabb, Donovan PHI QB	12.34	9.80
Dunn, Warrick TBB RB	19.20	9.30		Johnson, Chris TEN RB	27.40	19.50
Forte, Matt CHI RB	21.20	30.60		Peterson, Adrian MIN RB	36.40	42.50
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB	23.30	18.70		Colston, Marques NOS WR	20.70	19.00
Holmes, Santonio PIT WR	8.80	4.60		Hixon, Domenik NYG WR	6.90	17.50
Mason, Derrick BAL WR	11.50	8.00		Royal, Eddie DEN WR	18.10	8.10
Gates, Antonio SDC TE	17.60	20.20		Graham, Daniel DEN TE	5.50	4.20
Bryant, Matt TBB PK	10.00	7.00		Feely, Jay NYJ PK	8.00	11.00
Panthers, Carolina CAR Def	4.00	8.00		Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def	2.00	5.00
				Home Field	2.00	2.00
Total:	152.84	149.30		Total:	162.80	159.00

 

After Antonio Gates produced a 0.0 on Thursday night, Beagles should cruise to an easy 30 point victory.

Unfrozen Caveman v. Wretched Blood Hens

The sixth matchup between in two years between these division rivals. The two teams have alternated wins so far, which is bad news for the defending champs since he won the last meeting with the Blood Hegs.

Neither team has submitted a lineup, but I have some inside information on Caveman. I am guessing the Fighting Blood Chickens, however.

Wretch features a trio of wide receivers who on any given week can rack up 100 points. Caveman has a star-studded lineup but bad matchups this week could hurt their chances to return to the promised-land.

Player	ESPN	Caveman		Player	ESPN	Caveman
Cassel, Matt NEP QB	22.88	13.60		Pennington, Chad MIA QB	15.74	10.00
Jackson, Steven STL RB	15.20	12.50		White, LenDale TEN RB	5.90	10.00
Bess, Davone MIA WR	19.40	13.00		Smith, Kevin DET RB	7.50	7.00
Bryant, Antonio TBB WR	19.50	14.00		Clayton, Mark BAL WR	12.80	10.00
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR	23.40	24.00		Jennings, Greg GBP WR	19.30	19.60
Owens, Terrell DAL WR	16.30	10.00		Johnson, Andre HOU WR	15.30	24.20
Cooley, Chris WAS TE	11.70	12.90		Marshall, Brandon DEN WR	20.40	26.50
Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE	21.50	22.00		Carlson, John SEA TE	8.10	9.40
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK	11.00	10.00		Lindell, Rian BUF PK	6.00	7.00
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def	7.00	5.00		Dolphins, Miami MIA Def	6.00	6.00
Home Field	6.00	6.00
Total:	173.88	143.00		Total:	117.04	129.70

 

Caveman doesn’t love Caveman as much as ESPN does. This game will be closer than what ESPN would have you believe, but Caveman should buck the alternate winning trend and love to defend his crown one more week.

Tazmanians v. Vince’s Barbershop

These division rivals met twice in the regular season with Tazmanians winning both matchups.

Tazmanians				Vince’s Barbershop
Player	ESPN	Caveman		Player	ESPN	Caveman
Rivers, Philip SDC QB	19.14	17.20		Garrard, David JAC QB	12.72	10.00
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB	11.96	19.80		Thigpen, Tyler KCC QB	15.76	9.00
Faulk, Kevin NEP RB	16.20	10.00		Gore, Frank SFO RB	18.00	21.60
Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB	21.10	20.50		Washington, Leon NYJ RB	7.50	8.60
Driver, Donald GBP WR	15.20	15.50		Johnson, Calvin DET WR	21.20	19.00
Wayne, Reggie IND WR	19.40	23.00		Jones, Matt JAC WR	4.10	13.50
Welker, Wes NEP WR	11.30	15.00		Moss, Santana WAS WR	15.10	23.50
Stevens, Jerramy TBB TE	8.00	6.80		Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE	5.80	5.50
Reed, Jeff PIT K	6.00	10.00		Akers, David PHI K	3.00	7.00
Chargers, San Diego SDG Def	2.00	16.00		Giants, New York NYG Def	5.00	13.00
Home Field	10.00	10.00
Total:	130.30	153.80		Total:	108.18	130.70

 

Going into the Thursday night game Taz was expected by Caveman to come out with 53.70 points, but a strong effort by Phillip Rivers (and an equally pathetic effort by the Oakland Raiders) gave the Tazmanians 64.56.

Given that TAZ should roll into the second round with an easy 33 point win.

Good Luck to all!