In 1995, I started a list of football related achievements that I want to accomplish before I am too old to care or I lose interest in football (yea, like that is going to happen). Call it my football “bucket list”. Here are some of the items on list:
- Finish a fantasy football season undefeated
- Finish a season 50 games over .500 against the spread
- Win a survivor pool outright
- “Run the playoff gauntlet”, pick all 11 games correctly against the spread
- Successfully call the Super Bowl winner in pre-season
- Attend a Super Bowl
- Attend a Cardinals home playoff game
- See an NFL team finish the season 0-16 and 19-0
- Berate Bill Callahan for an entire game
- Spot a notable player, who had a key fumble in a key game, in public, ask him a question and is middle drop something. For example, Earnest Byner.
I have also checked off some items:
- Win back-to-back fantasy football championships (won three in a row – 1997-1999)
- See the Rams win a Super Bowl (1999)
- See Nebraska win a National Championship (1994,1995,1997)
- Attend a National Championship game (1995)
The first five of my unchecked list are totally in my control and while I haven’t “checked” them off the list, I have been very, very close.
In the survivor pool I went into the divisional playoff round in a survivor pool back in 2000, eight contestants remained – seven on the Rams (v. Saints) and one on the Dolphins (v. Colts). This was the “Peyton can’t win a playoff game” Colts and the “effing Mike Martz sucks” Rams. You know the rest of the story.
Four times, I have started the NFL playoffs with 4 wins. Each time I failed to make out of the next round un-scathed.
Surprisingly, I have failed to hit the Super Bowl winner in pre-season. While this seemingly is the easiest of the list, I have failed 13 consecutive years (the streak looks safe this year as well – San Diego). FWIW, here are the 13 losers:
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1995 – San Francisco |
2002 – St. Louis |
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1996 – Indianapolis |
2003 – Philadelphia |
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1997 – Green Bay |
2004 – Indianapolis |
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1998 – Jacksonville |
2005 – Tampa Bay |
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1999 – Jacksonville |
2006 – Jacksonville |
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2000 – St. Louis |
2007 – Carolina |
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2001 – St. Louis |
2008 – San Diego |
As you can see, I never pick the favorite unless it happens to be my favorite team. I am always looking the “great call”, therefore I rarely use logic and it shows.
Before we get started with the mid-season fantasy predictions we need to address the history that could possibly be happening in this league, an undefeated fantasy season. A fairly through check of history tells shows that no team has gone through a normal fantasy season and playoffs undefeated.
The closest I have ever been to 50 games over .500? Last year 17 games over. This is the lottery of the bunch. It most likely will never happen.
That leaves finishing a fantasy season undefeated. The closest I have come was last year when I made it eight weeks one league and nine in another. I finished the year with two losses in each of those leagues.
I have played in 52 fantasy leagues in the past 14 years and I have never seen the “perfecto”. This year, no one is close. The best team (record wise) is 8-1, but they lost week one. That isn’t surprising since this year has had so many question marks, but I thought that maybe someone would hit the lottery with a team of Rivers, Portis, Chris Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson and Roddy White.
Even a team like that would’ve had a tough time defeating a team of Matt Schuab, Westbrook, DeAngelo Williams, Santana Moss, Anquan Boldin and Donnie Avery last week.
So, what would it take to go undefeated? For starters you need the following:
Favorable schedule – You catch opponents when their key players are on bye or hurting
The “Un-effing-believable” game – You know the Ronnie Brown 5 TD game, you get those on your side and never face them
Avoiding the bad matchup/good matchup game – Your running back is playing against the Vikings while your opponent’s RB gets the Chiefs.
Avoid Pre-game injuries – This is also known as the “Joseph Addai” theorem. Your “healthy” guy either gets injured in pre-game (Donte Stallworth) or plays four plays and pulls a hammy (Addai). Either way the zero in your lineup is hard to overcome.
Avoid letdown games – Every player has at least one bad fantasy game, this comes into play when your team consistently plays another team whose big guns fall flatter than your big guns.
Catch roster breaks – the “Larry Johnson” theorem, in 2005 Priest Holmes gets injured in week 8 and if you happen to have Larry Johnson all of a sudden you have a guy who averaged 2 TDs and 140 yards the rest of the way.
Catch breaks in the draft – You find a Steve Slaton in the 15th round or Santana Moss in the 6th round and they play like a 1st round pick. It also helps if your first six picks pan out, as well.
Exceptional roster management – You’re able to sniff out busts and trade them before anyone else knows they are a bust (2006 Laurence Maroney); you get the best of your trades
Managing you team – I crapped the bed on my 9-0 team by playing a guy on bye week. It ended up not killing me, but you cannot make mistakes like that and run the table.
Overcoming the pressure – The closer you get the more you start to think about it and you can’t help but think “what if I go undefeated in the regular and then lose in the playoffs?” You start to peek ahead to the playoff weeks and micro-managing your team.
And after all of that you need incredible luck. Which is why I think an undefeated fantasy season will never happen.
No worries though, I still have a chance at “50 over .500″ and “run the playoff gauntlet”. I should be able to knock out the Cardinals home playoff game this year. And I have a strong feeling I am going to see a 0-16 team in 2008.
The Historical Bad Division
32. Detroit (0) – Show me the win remaining on the schedule – @Chicago, Jacksonville, @Carolina, Tennessee, Minnesota, @Indianapolis, New Orleans and @Green Bay. 75% chance of going 0-16
31. Cincinnati (0) – Check out the Bengals remaining schedule – Jacksonville, @Pittsburgh, Baltimore, @Indianapolis, Washington, @Cleveland. 99% chance of going 0-15, but 0% chance of going 0-16 because they play the Chiefs in week 17.
The “Sure we suck but we’re young! But you suck!” Division
30. Kansas City (0) – How bad is Kansas City? Tyler Thigpen, starting quarterback, puts up the 7th best day for a QB on Sunday and he remains on waivers. In one of my leagues, Kolby Smith, starting running back, is available and is still on waivers.
29. San Francisco (-1) – Has any coach in history had a more eventful first week than Mike Singletary? He benched the starting quarterback, sent a player to the showers before the end of the game and drops his pants in the locker room.
What can Singletary do for an encore? How about in week 10, he kills O’Sullivan with his bare hands on the sidelines, cut a player mid-game and send him to the airport and drop a deuce in the locker room signifying the way the 49ers are playing.
More on O’Suckavan – here is a condensed list of quarterbacks who out-scored JT this week: Troy Smith, Joe Montana, Joe Namath, Ryan Leaf and Mark Brunell.
The “Commitment to drafting in the top 5″ Division
28. Oakland (-1) –Did you know that Shane Lechler has the highest career punting average in NFL history? So the Raiders got that going for them.
The “M*A*S*H” Division
27. Seattle (+2) – Amazingly enough the Seahawks are a mere two games behind in the division with two games left against the Cardinals. Imagine if they could get healthy in the next week or so, they might have a real shot.
The “Don’t know what you got until it’s gone” Division
26. NY Jets (-4) – Jets fans are pining for Chad Pennington.
The “Dow Jones” Division
25. Indianapolis (-8) – This isn’t a very good team. They are 3-4 and four games out of first, but they’ve been blown out in three games and should’ve lost to both Minnesota and Houston. The good news, they get Joseph Addai back this week.
24. Denver (-5) –Their drop this week is residual from the beat down the Patriots gave them.
The “2009 Contenders” Division
23. Houston HBo(+2)
22. Cleveland (+4) – The Browns and the Eagles have the market cornered on “first and goal from the one” futility.
21. St. Louis (+3) – Maybe the Rams pull that game out in New England with Steven Jackson. A thigh bruise is threatening to keep this guy out for two weeks. Steve cannot play 16 games.
20. Miami (+1)
The “Hanging by a thread” Division
19. New Orleans (+4) –Despite the sub-standard travel arrangements, the Saints found a way to win in London.
18. Minnesota (+1)
The “Frisky” Division
17. Baltimore (+1)
The “Under-Achievers” Division
16. San Diego (-2) – Honestly, does Shawn Merriman make that big of a difference. This was a Saints team without Reggie Bush.
15. Jacksonville (-2) – No team is more frustrating to their fans than the Jags.
14. Dallas (+2) – Is anyone buying the Cowboys defense with Wade Phillips calling the plays? Yea, me neither.
The “Agoraphobic” Division
13. Green Bay (+2) – Nice move locking up Rodgers for the immediate future. Now try winning on the road.
12. Atlanta (-1) – The Eagles game was stolen from them. Is it just me or has the officiating this year been as bad as ever?
11. Arizona (-2) – They’re going to blow a sure division title because they refuse to win on the road.
The “Schizophrenia” Division
10. Carolina (+2)
9. Tampa Bay (-2) – Nine points against the Cowboys defense is a joke. Maybe Gruden is already resting his players for the playoffs.
The “Upside Down” Division
8. Chicago (+2)
The “One and Done” Division
7. Buffalo (-2) – Pretenders.
6. New England (+2) – They committed no penalties against the Rams and still needed a fourth quarter rally. Ladies and Gentleman, the 6th best team in the NFL.
The “Get hot at the right time and run the table” Division
5. Pittsburgh (-3)
4. Philadelphia (+2) –Gift win on Sunday. At some point Andy Reid needs to take off his girdle and the Eagles have to figure out a way to score a touchdown from the 1-yard line.
3. Washington (+1)
The “Contender” Division
2. NY Giants (+1) – Very impressive against the Steelers. If I had to pick a Super Bowl winner right now, it would be the Giants.
The “Favorite” Division
1. Tennessee (0) – Did they answer questions Monday night or just beat another bad team?
