My division series picks finished a very below average 2-2. I can use the “reverse jinx” theory on the Red Sox, but the reality is I honestly didn’t think they would win that series. I completely forgot about the mental block the Angels have when they play the Sox.
I hit the Phillies and the Rays but those were easy picks. The Brewers were missing Ben Sheets and as noted CC Sabathia’s arm was about to fall off. The White Sox had to effectively play a five game series just to get into the playoffs and then with very little rest travel to take on a Rays team that put tons of pressure on them.
The Cubs are where I really dropped the ball. I should have known that with the baggage the Cubs carry around there was no way they would win a series when even one minor thing went wrong. If I bet on the Cubs to the win the series I would have been frantically begging the casino to give me my money like Albert Brooks in “Lost in America” as soon as Loney hit that game one grand slam.
Onto the League Championship series predictions:
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Philadelphia Phillies
Game one of this series is must-win for the Phillies. Their starting pitching isn’t deep enough to overcome losing a Cole Hamels start at home. For the Dodgers, game one isn’t as important since their starting pitching is deeper and they only need to win one of first two games on the road.
Key for the Phillies is their two starters after Hamels, Myers and Moyer. If those two can manage two wins I like Phillies chances. The problem for the Phils – Manny Ramirez owns Jamie Moyer, lifetime 1.328 OPS with 9 HR in 43 at-bats. The good news, Myers seems to have it figured out and was solid in his first start of the post-season.
Key for the Dodgers is can the offense continue to produce runs. Outside of Manny, no one on that team really scares you, but everyone seems to be clicking right now and you cannot under-estimate the positive impact Manny has in the middle of that lineup.
The wildcard in this series is Derek Lowe. Lowe is somewhat like “Nuke Laloosh” in that he has million dollar stuff but a five cent head. Lowe pitching on the road in game one with a lower amount pressure means we likely will see the good Derek Lowe and the “Derek Lowe” face. Couple that with the fact he is a ground ball pitcher is a fly ball park and I like the Dodgers chances in game to steal the home field in game one.
Who wins? The Dodgers in six.
Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays
The flinch here is to assume that the playoff seasoned Red Sox will very little problems with the young, un-tested Rays. There are several flaws to that line of thinking. First, this edition of the Rays is seasoned. When the Red Sox charged at the end of the season, Rays held them off by beating Boston in four of six head-to-head. If the Rays felt the pressure we wouldn’t know it by those head-to-head meetings, as Boston won the first game in each of those three game series only to see the Rays bow their necks and win the next two.
While the Sox boast the best starting pitcher (Lester), Tampa Bay’s rotation is deeper. All four of Tampa Bay’s starters have the potential to lock down the Sox and at a minimum will keep the Rays in the game. The Sox, on the other hand, have major questions with three of their starters. What Beckett we will see? Can Dice-K find his control and give the Sox a strong seven innings? And Tim Wakefield could pitch a one hitter or tax the bullpen by getting shelled in the first inning.
Key for the Red Sox – The Sox have to find a way to break through against the Rays bullpen. We know the Sox will work the pitch count and get the Rays starters out of the game by the seventh inning, but they have been miserable against the Rays bullpen this year. If Boston can rough up that bullpen and steal a win in game one or two, the momentum will be on their side.
Key for the Rays – Continue their timely hitting. One reason I can see this team winning the World Series this year is the number of key hits they get in two out situations. If that well dries up for them they will have a difficult time winning this series.
The wildcard in this series – Dan Wheeler, Rays closer. Wheeler is not a closer by trade, but he is being thrust into this role because of the injury to Troy Percival. If he craps the bed, the Rays are in big trouble this series.
Who wins? These teams are very close and this should be a competitive series, but that doesn’t mean it will be a long series. I could see one of these teams finding a way to win four straight and ending the ALCS in a sweep.
I have been saying for a couple of months now, that the Rays aren’t just a nice story that will come to end when they run up against post-season savvy team. This team has all the ingredients needed to win a championship – power, the ability to manufacture a run with small-ball, a great defense that prevents tangible things like first-to-third, lights out bullpen and solid starting pitching. The Sox have a shaky bullpen and too many question marks in the starting rotation.
If my life depended on correctly picking this series, I could not take the Sox. The Rays in six.
