In my “… Second Half MLB Predictions…“, I nailed four division winners (Phillies, Cubs, Rays and Angels) and one of the wildcards (Brewers, thanks Mets!). I missed out on the Diamondbacks and Twins as division winners and the Yankees as a wild card (although we all know that I put the reverse jinx on the Yankees).
A couple quick playoff facts before my predictions:
- Two teams this year have a chance to set the record for most consecutive post-season wins. The Yankees currently hold the record winning 12 straight over the 1998 and 1999 post-seasons. The Red Sox currently have seven game winning streak and the White Sox hold an eight game winning streak.
- The Red Sox have a current eight game World Series winning streak and the White Sox sit at four games. The record is 14 straight done by the Yankees over four seasons – 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000.
Here are my division series predictions:
NL Division series – Brewers v. Phillies (Original Pick: Brewers)
The way the schedule works out, Sabathia only has to pitch on three days rest once for this series (Game 2). This is a relief, since I think CC’s left arm has a 50/50 chance of falling off at some point this post-season.
My original pick was based on the Phillies having to face Sabathia and Sheets, on full rest, three times during the series. Sheets is iffy at best and Sabathia has made three consecutive starts on three days rest. The Brew-Crew’s rotation isn’t exactly setup for the post-season.
The Phillies, meanwhile, are setup with their top three pitchers set to go in games 1-3. Game one is always huge, but in this series it means more than most and with Sabathia looming in game two the Phillies have to take game one.
I like the Phillies and Hamels in game one, Sabathia to send the series back to Milwaukee 1-1. At that point the shambles that is the Brewers rotation will take its toll and the Phillies will close the Brewers out in four.
Philadelphia 3 Milwaukee 1
NL Division series – Dodgers v. Cubs (Original Pick: Cubs)
The Cubs rotation 1 to 4 is the best in the playoffs, however, Zambrano is a head case and has been terrible since his no-hitter. Zambrano is slated to pitch game two, with Dempster getting the nod in game one. I would be extremely concerned if I am Cubs fan that if the Cubs drop game one, Zambrano, “the head case”, will show up for game two and the Cubs will head to LA down two games. For those reasons, game one is more important to the Cubs than the Dodgers.
Based on regular season run differential, the Dodgers are the worst team in the playoffs while the Cubs are the best. Those numbers are somewhat skewed by the Manny Ramirez “give away”, but even if we analyze the post-deadline numbers the Dodgers are still trailing the Cubs in run differential (+54 to +37) and a record (32-19 to 30-24). Overall, the Cubs are a much stronger team and have a significant advantage.
When I ask the question “can the Cubs win the series if they lose the first two games?”, I still think they can. The Cubs send Harden and Lilly to the mound in games three and four, while the Dodgers counter with Kuroda and probably Lowe on short rest. Advantage Cubs.
If I reverse the question and asking “can the Dodgers win the series if they lose the first two games?”, I say no possible way. In fact, if they lose the first two games, the Cubs will sweep. That is the difference, the Cubs are just too much for the Dodgers.
Chicago 3 Los Angeles 1
AL Division series – White Sox v. Rays (Original Pick: Rays)
We really don’t know how the Rays will respond to their first ever trip to the playoffs, but if the regular season is any indication the Rays will respond just fine. When faltering, the Rays found a way to beat Papelbon in Fenway and hold off the Red Sox for the division. The home field advantage for the Rays is significant, given the artificial surface and the speed of the Rays.
The Rays hold the edge in starting and relief pitching. And any advantage the White Sox might have in hitting is neutralized by the speed of the Rays. This series isn’t close on paper and will not be on the field.
The White Sox best chance to win a game is game two with Buehrle matched up against an inconsistent Kazmir. Outside of that game, the matchups are significantly in the Rays favor.
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 0
AL Division series – Red Sox v. Angels (Original Pick: Angels)
When ranking the starting pitchers in this series, the best Angels starter (Lackey) would be the fourth best (Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester). This series setup very nicely for the Red Sox with Beckett prepared to shut the Angels down in game one and the Red Sox returning to Fenway with at worst a split. Then Beckett strained his oblique in a side session and his start is pushed back to game three.
The Beckett injury flips this series completely in favor of the Angels. The Angels owned the Red Sox in the regular season and have a confidence against that hasn’t existed in previous playoff meetings with the Sox. However, if “playoff” Beckett showed up in game one and shut the Angels down, they would start pressing and the series would be over before it began. And even though I think Lester has an advantage over Lackey, I can see the Angels grinding out an extra inning win in game one and setting the tone for the entire series.
I love Matsuzaka in game two with a 1-0 lead, but hate him down 1-0. And if any of these games are decided by the bullpens, the Angels have an over whelming advantage. In addition, any tight game will swing the Angels way since they are about hundred million times more likely to manufacture a run than are the Sox.
The Angels win the first two and even “playoff” Beckett will not be enough to stop the momentum the Angels will have.
Los Angeles 3 Boston 0 (reverse jinx? Not this time!)
