NL East
Champion – Philadelphia Phillies
This is the toughest division to call – part due to the significant flaws each of the team and the other part because of the two games separating the top three teams. In that type of race with these types of teams the schedule will be the deciding factor. The easiest schedule goes to the Phillies and therefore so will the division. Congratulations Phillies, you win the right to play three additional games.
I keep waiting for the Marlins to go away, but they keep refusing to do so. Realistically, I cannot see a team that has been out-scored on the year and is out-performing their expected win-loss record by five games having enough to win even the weakest division in baseball. But the neither the Mets nor the Phillies have enough to run away and hide with the division, so the Marlins will be there until the end. And since we know the Marlins never lose in the post-season, the world should brace for the potential “All-Florida” World Series. Fox TV execs just crapped themselves after reading that line.
Much like last year the Mets Achilles Heel is their bullpen, who has scurrilously treated just about every quality start from Johan Santana (which leads me to wonder if Santana is secretly plotting to invite Pedro Feliciano and Billy Wagner to his native Venezuela and mysteriously return without them). When it all comes out in the wash a flawed bullpen is like a terminal disease.
NL Central
Champion – Chicago Cubs (Home field advantage throughout NL Playoffs)
NL Wild Card – Milwaukee Brewers
Hands down this is the best division in the National League. The Cardinals would easily win the West and be the favorites to emerge in the East, yet they are an afterthought in the Central.
The mid-season deals by the Cubs and Brewers sent a strong message that both teams were “going for it.” The Cubs boast the deepest rotation in baseball while the Brewers might have the best 1-2 punch. The Cubs have been the NL’s best team so far and will comfortably hang to the division.
NL West
Champion – Arizona Diamondbacks
According to ESPN.COM the Dodgers are the favorite to win the West (55% probability), however, I trust Baseball Prospectus more and they have the Dodgers at 44%. Ok, so the Dodgers have received a bit of adrenaline from the Manny Ramirez trade, but once the “new car” smell wears off the Dodger fans will go back to their blasé ways of showing up in the 3rd inning and leaving by the 7th. And Manny, oh Manny, to see you hustle the bases like you were a rookie trying to make a name for yourself makes me want to puke. But I know you Manny and more than once in a big spot you will have a “Manny being Manny” moment that will severely damage the pursuit of the post-season for the Dodgers.
Then there is the fact that the Diamondbacks are a good team, with deep starting pitching, an above average bullpen and good young hitters. Webb, Haren and Johnson will lead this team to their second consecutive division title.
NL Division Series:
Side note: This might be the most entertaining NL playoffs in a decade. If the Cubs, Brewers and D-Backs all make it (and since those are my predicted teams – it is a likely as the sun rising in the East tomorrow) the pitching matchups will be other-worldly.
Cubs 3 Phillies 0 – The Cubs are simply a better team – they have the top two and four of the top five starting pitchers in the series. The Cubs offense is at worst an equal to the Phillies and is probably significantly better. The Phils only chance is if they can ride Hamels to two wins and steal a third somewhere. Unfortunately, Hamels isn’t quite there and as stated above – Harden (or Zambrano) is better.
Brewers 3 D-Backs 2 – This has the potential to be one of the best pitched series’ in recent memory with Webb v. Sabathia and Haren v. Sheets. I like the Brewers offense to put more pressure on the D-Backs pitchers and ultimately score enough to grind out three wins.
NL Championship Series:
Cubs 4 Brewers 2 – The Cubs have a big advantage by dispensing the Phillies in three straight. While Sabathia will start game 5 in Arizona (and Sheets might enter the game in relief), the Cubs will set their rotation on normal rest. So instead of having Sabathia v. Harden, we would be looking at Harden v. Parra in game 1. Couple that with the Cubs deeper rotation and expect to see the Cubs end the 63 year World Series drought.
World Series
Cubs v. Angels:
Rotation: Advantage Cubs. The Cubs rotation is deeper and much better at the front. Lackey and Saunders are not in the same class as Harden and Zambrano.
Setup Bullpen: Advantage Angels. This is close, but overall the Angels have an advantage with a dominant Shields and Speier especially against the right-handed heavy Cubs lineup. Throw in Arredondo, who is absolutely filthy and the Angels can protect a slim lead in those critical late innings. Marmol and Samardzija are both solid and the Cubs do not get the same advantage by moving Marquis to the pen that the Angels do with Garland/Weaver.
Closer: Advantage Angels. Rodriguez is one of the top closers in the game and he has the experience of closing big playoff games. Kerry Wood is filthy, but is still too inconsistent to be considered a top closer.
Bench: Advantage Cubs. The Cubs sport a deep bench with Daryle Ward, Reed Johnson and Mike Fontenot all better than average options off the bench. The Angels do not have the depth with really on Juan Rivera considered a threat from their bench.
Starting Lineup: Advantage Cubs. The Cubs have the overall advantage in power and average. The Angels will put pressure on the Cubs defense with their aggressive small-ball style, but even with the addition of Teixeira they do not have as explosive of an offense as the Cubs. Zambrano is like having the DH when he pitches in Wrigley.
The pick: “Hell hath frozen over – 100 years of futility ends” – Cubs 4 Angels 2. The Cubs have been the best team in the baseball in terms of run differential and expected wins by performing 1 game under their expected win total.
The Angels meanwhile are performing at an unbelievable 9 games over their expected win total; some would argue that is a function of extraordinary luck. In the end that luck will run dry and the Cubs will shed the “Lovable Losers” tag.
