NFL Week 9 Picks

It’s my annual football sabbatical weekend! Every year I take one weekend completely off from football due to the draining nature of the sport. Right now, you’re thinking to yourself “you have got to be kidding me, suck it up wuss!” That’s fair enough, but the reality the NFL teams don’t play 16 consecutive weeks, why should the fans. That is especially true of a fan who falls into the Type-A, hyper-competitive personality profile.

This week is a perfect fit for me to remove myself from football for the following reasons – 1. Week 9 has been a fantasy nightmare for me in the past two years as I have gone 1-7 (72-32 in other weeks); 2. Nebraska is going to suffer their third consecutive home loss at the hands of Oklahoma; 3. I have some catching up to do my “honey-do” list; 4. I found out the other day that I have a six year-old, I could have sworn she was still am infant. Translation, the family is going to get some attention this weekend, in fact they’re in on it; 5. The anger and frustration I felt last week watching Brett Favre avoid a three man rush (thanks, Dom Capers) and shred the Packers, while the Cardinals were crapping their pants against the Panthers, threw me over the edge.

The sabbatical works like this – I don’t watch any football Saturday or Sunday. I cannot use the Internet, phone or print media to gather information on scores, teams, players or stats. I have to enter my fantasy lineups before 8AM on Saturday (incredibly risky, considering the number of players who are GTD and might decide not to play, Anquan Boldin, I am talking to you). The first time I can get a glimpse of the weekend action is on Monday AM. And believe me when Monday AM rolls around I am like a 10 year old on Christmas morning.

You may be interested in this football version of the “colon cleanse” and asking yourself is this for me. To help you decide, I have put together a quick questionaire:

1. Do you find yourself obsessing about your fantasy football team 24 x 7?
   
2. If when watching a football game as a casual observer, you begin to pull for one team and when that team begins losing, do you become violently angry?
   
3. Do you utter the phrases “I hope player X gets hurt” or “If I ever see player X, we are fighting”?
   
4. Have you ever taking seven hours to complete a task on Sunday that would take you 30 minutes any other day?
   
5. Do you find yourself praying to a plasma TV, saying things like, “Please, please put Steve Slaton back in, I promise he won’t fumble again!”?
   
6. Does your middle finger throb with pain Sunday night due to repeatedly right-clicking and refreshing at NFL.COM’s scoreboard?
   

 

If you answered “yes” to any of these questions you may benefit from a football sabbatical. Remember it’s just one week.

As for my picks, I am mired in a five week run mediocrity (8-6, 7-7, 7-7, 7-5-1, 7-6). At this point in the season, true playoff contenders begin to separate themselves from the pack. Therefore it’s time for the Caveman to “get busy winning”.

The theme this week is “go with the house”. It has been widely publicized over the past few weeks that Las Vegas sports books have been brought to their knees by bettors. The only reason they make that news public to entice more bettors into action, right? The common bettor is thinking, “Hey, look free money, I think I will help myself to some!” And what do you know there are several “out of whack” point spreads this week!

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Washington +9 over Atlanta – This spread seems a bit too low to me. The Eagles were favored by nine over the Redskins in Washington two weeks ago, that would translate into a 15 point spread in Philly for the Eagles. The Falcons and the Eagles are similar in terms of strength, with the Eagles possibly giving the Falcons two points above the standard home field or 5 points in Philly. Using that logic the spread should be around 13. Why is it nine? I guess because you just cannot give Jim Zorn an extra week to prepare!

Funny thing, the line opened at 10 and has moved to nine, which is an indication that the bettors are betting on Atlanta. Not true, according to Covers, the Falcons are drawing roughly 76% of the action. This is an obvious “go with the house” pick.

Arizona +3 over Chicago – “Larry, Anquan and Steve, I called you together today to let know you that this weekend we are going to use you three as decoys. Yep, I am designing a game plan to surprise the Panthers by exclusive throwing to our tight ends and running backs.” – Ken Whisenhunt.

The action for this game is evenly divided, meaning most bettors don’t know what to make of the Cardinals either. I think they were embarrassed last week, which means they will show up and beat an inferior team.

Baltimore -3 over Cincinnati – The first of three truly crazy lines of the week. So, let’s see Cincinnati beats Baltimore four weeks ago as a nine point road underdog and now essentially nothing has changed as Baltimore would still be a nine point favorite at home. Problem is the public is all over the Ravens -3 and even though this is “go with the house week”, I believe they tried to make this line palatable to Bengals action but they failed.

Plus, this is a must win for the Ravens.

Houston +9 over Indianapolis – Raise your hand if you fall into the “losing Owen Daniels crushed my fantasy team’s hope for 2009″ category. That’s me with two hands up. I was left to scurry for the likes of Chris Cooley (please, please make it back), Kevin Boss (I know what’s been missing with the Giants offense, the BOSSMAN, throw him the ball, Eli!) and Dustin Keller (rookie QB on a running team). My only hope is that the loss of Daniels will help Kevin Walter, who has been a major disappointment this season.

Kansas City +6.5 over Jacksonville – The “weak sack” sports books move this line to 7, but I am not worried about getting hooked. Why? Well, for one the Jags cannot stop the run, say hello to the beginning of Jamal Charles era. In addition, the Jags struggle as home favorites, but the betting public doesn’t care about meaningless stats like that as 61% are backing the Jags.

Tampa Bay +10 over Green Bay – I cannot believe Tampa is a 10 point underdog at home, don’t these odds-makers know the magic Raheem Morris can work with an extra week to prepare. Given the facts that Tampa is starting a rookie quarterback, who is making his first start and Green Bay is coming off a terrible loss the line should probably be higher. The bettors agree as Green Bay is getting an over-whelming 76% of the action.

I like the Bucs for the obvious “go with the house” play, but there are a couple additional tidbits that make this a better than average play – Aaron Rodgers is hurting, meaning the Pack will be less likely to pile on the points; and the Bucs are selling out with Josh Freeman, so they likely will continue running the full offense until the final whistle, which could lead to a late garbage covering TD.

New England -10.5 over Miami – Originally, I was all over Miami and the 10.5 then Joey Porter opened his mouth. A sampling of Porter’s brilliance, “…they used to be the champions back in the day” and when asked if Tom Brady has his own set of rules, Porter did not mince words, “When a guy can tell a ref when to throw a flag and he gets it and stuff like that, he got his own rules. They made the whole [rule that you] don’t go at the legs because of Tom. So when he feels that someone is coming at his legs, he just points at the ref and he gets a flag. So you’ve got to honestly say that he got his own rules.”

Thanks Joey, you just turned a coin flip game into a sure winner. Thanks goodness I am not playing Tom Brady this weekend in Fantasy.

Carolina +13.5 over New Orleans – I watched Michael Turner carve up the Saints on Monday, so I am guessing the Panthers dynamic duo of Stewart/Williams will run wild in this game. And Panthers fans you can exhale as it looks like Jake Delhomme is going to be able to play this weekend.

Seattle -10 over Detroit – The Seahawks specialized in beating bad teams badly at home – 28-0 over the Rams and 41-0 over the Jags.

San Diego +4.5 over NY Giants – According to Covers, the odds-makers have actually achieved the so-called 50-50 split they desperately desire.

Tangent Alert – The odds-makers try to sell the we want 50-50 action, so we can make 10% on the bets, ok fair enough, except that there is very little chance of them actually getting 50-50 action, even with their wide array of tools, like line movement and increasing the “take” percentage. Let’s remember a couple of things about sports books – NFL gambling sustains the books through all the other less lucrative sports; and most importantly, sports books make money. Let’s look at some facts – if we assume a game brings in 1 million dollars of action, the sports book max take on the game is 45 thousand, if action is split precisely 50/50. If we move the number slightly to 52.4/47.6, the sports book is now vulnerable to losing money. Of course, the sports books also have a nice sized “take” on parlays, teasers and various other prop bets, but you get the picture these sports books can’t pay the electricity bill by hoping to draw 50/50 action. They have information, they use to set lines and at the end of day, week, month or season they collect a massive amount of money.

Whew, I am glad I got that off my chest!

Tennessee +4 over San Francisco – Dumbest line of the week! San Francisco should be at least a touchdown favorite in this game. However, this line is a product of the NFC West being the weakest, or perceived weakest division in football. Maybe, just maybe, the Titans aren’t that bad of a football team and can recapture some of that 2008 magic.

Philadelphia -3 over Dallas – Another dumb line. Here is the list of teams Dallas has beaten – Carolina, Seattle, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and, the lone good win, Atlanta. Why are they considered an equal with a very good Eagles team? You can’t say it’s the Andy Reid effect, because if you look over at the other side there’s Wade Phillips and believe me if you bet on the Cowboys in a big road game, you’ll be trying to get your money back the minute they flash over to a shot of Wade on the sidelines and he has barbeque sauce stains on his mouth and cheeks.

Denver +3 over Pittsburgh – And the final game of week 9 ends with, guess what a dumb line. I guess the Ravens running up the score last week somehow means the Broncos aren’t for real. I know Orton played like crap, they couldn’t run the ball and the defense was exposed late in that game, but I still like the energy on this team. They certainly shouldn’t be underdogs.

Bonus Pick: Oklahoma -4.5 over Nebraska – This game will not be close, it is what I refer to as a “Mortgage Bailout” game, cue announcer voice, “Are you having trouble making your monthly mortgage? Would you like to have your next two mortgage payments turn into four or three into six? Then you want to know about this special, limited time Mortgage Bailout opportunity.”

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-6

2009 Record: 61-54-1

Last Week: $0

Bank: $9,058 ($-942)

Bets:

New England -10.5, Carolina +13.5, Tennessee +4, Philadelphia -3 and Denver +3

Straight Bets ($440 Each), 2-team round robin parlay (10 bets @ $100 each), 3-team round robin (10 bets @$50 each)

Total Risked: $3700

 

Yankees end long drought, win first title of the Third Millennium

The Third Millennium is a bit darker today, the air is denser making it tougher to inhale, and while the sun is out, it is nowhere near as bright as has been over the past nine years. Yes gone are the mid-Fall days where the roads that paved the morning commute were filled with bumps and dips, not from pot-holes but from Yankee hats, pennants, shirts and jerseys that had been cast aside due to repeated, colossal fall collapses from The Evil Empire. But not this year, so I begrudgingly congratulate the New York Yankees on winning their 27^th World Series, but their first in the Third Millennium. And just like that taunts of “Year 2000″ are forever buried.

How, after years of being able to set your watch by fall failures, did the Yankees break through this year? It certainly wasn’t the manager, since Joe Girardi couldn’t manage his way out of a wet paper bag (wow, that joke is so 70s, right?). You have to remember that baseball managers cannot win games, they can only lose them. And while Girardi lost his share for the most part he allowed his players to decide the meaningful games.

The reason the Yankees won the World Series – they had better players playing better than their opponents. It’s important to note that though the Yankees are a very talented team, they do not necessarily have more talent than the Phillies, but the past six games the Yankees simply played better baseball.

The Yankees caught the perfect storm of free agent acquisitions (Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira) producing like they were supposed to, forgotten players (Damon, Matsui and Posada), who essentially were written off, finding the fountain of youth leading to production like they were in their primes and a bullpen that was absolute nails over the course of the regular season. This type of success rarely happens for teams, but for this year it did and it paid the ultimate dividend.

Now the question is – does this start another Yankee dynasty or will next year yield a new champion like the previous 11? The Yankees will most certainly replace Damon with a high priced free agent and will be in on the Roy Halladay sweepstakes when he hits the trade market. There are only a handful of teams capable of competing with the Yankees as currently constructed – Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals and Dodgers. Of those teams, only the Phillies can compete with the current Yankee team that upgrades the left field position and adds another ace starter, and that is a stretch requiring a few Yankee key players to have a down year or injury. Not likely.

The Yankees will be the favorite and my pick to win it all in 2010. Hey, it’s never too early to start working on a reverse jinx.

Tuesday Morning Fantasy Headlines – Week 8

In the Banner League week 8 featured three games of boss versus employee.

Unfrozen Caveman (employee) kicked Filthy Little Monkeys (boss) when the Monkeys strategy of playing two kickers backfires. Caveman builds an early, seemingly insurmountable lead and tells his late afternoon players to take the day off. Much like coach Whiz decided to give his play-makers the day off and instead focus on the stealthy move of throwing the ball to 8^th string TEs and undrafted running backs.

Don’t mess with the Rohan insubordinately declined to put Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic lineup. I am sure this issue will require some coaching, but Rohan will take the win with the lowest ever winning score.

Management got their lone victory when Land Shark harassed, without repercussion, Desert Pimps. To Land Shark’s credit he wasn’t at his best, but he took care of business despite the biggest game of his life looming on the horizon.

In a battle between truly despicable creatures, Warpigs turn Tazmanians on their heads and spin them like top.

In a rare appearance, DA BOYZ FROM NYC, take a break from making ridiculous trades in order to stock pile every Jet on the planet and defeat the Green Meanies. The win gets DA BOYZ out of the cellar. . .

Child protective services need to receive a call about Evil Beagles abuse of Hulkamaniacs. And with the loss the Hulkster is left scratching his head as the rest of the league wonders if the fact that the Banner League started testing for PEDs has anything to do with the dramatic fall.

Kristi Kremes robs Vince’s Barbershop and uses the money to start a boutique, which eventually puts Vince out of business.

NFL Week 8 Picks

I will be honest this week had me completely befuddled. And to think last week, I thought I was on top of the gambling world. Just goes to show how quickly it can go, when you get a lucky cover because of a defensive touchdown (confidence is waning but hey, I won) on an early game, only to see the same luck turn against me in the late game. Next thing you know, I go from “the zone” to being known as SoM (Strike out Machine) like Ryan Howard of the Phillies.

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Buffalo +3 over Houston – The Bills have something working with the stoic Dick Jauron pacing the sidelines like he is giving a lecture on 1800’s literature. And if the Texans win this game they will be two games over .500 for the first time in franchise history. That’s eight long years. In fact, I had my crack research team look it up and every other NFL team has had at least two seasons where they have been two games over .500. Yup, even the Lions, Bengals and Cardinals.

Seattle +9.5 over Dallas – I heard this classic story this week about how Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck plays fantasy football and of course drafted himself (in the later rounds, no doubt. But since he knew he was an injury risk he also drafted Brett Favre, who he started in week 4 when Hasselbeck threw four touchdowns against the Jaguars. Not wanting the make the same mistake again Matty threw himself in the lineup against the Cardinals. We all know how that turned out. Matt, here is some free advice, next year take the guess work out of the quarterback position and go with a sure thing like Brees, Manning and Brady.

San Francisco +12.5 over Indianapolis – I am likin’ me some of the dogs so far this week. Call me crazy, but I think the 49ers hang tough in this game, led by their soon-to-be Pro Bowl tight end, Vernon Davis. Did you know that Vernon Davis was available in close to 28% of the league prior to this week? And now that number has fallen to 18%. Are you kidding me? Davis is the 4^th overall scoring TE so far this season, how can that be? What are owners waiting for Vernon to prove himself? Or the more appropriate questions are – where are these leagues and can I get in?

Baltimore -3.5 over Denver – This is pretty much a must win for the Ravens, as the next six games are brutal for them. I have to admit I have come full circle on the Broncos, but I think the bye week hurt them. For starters, I am not the only one who has come around the entire nation now loves this team. So they have had a week to sit around while everyone is telling them how good they are. Secondly, the Ravens have had an extra week to prepare for them. You know want that means – the Ravens are about to introduce to the NFL (cue announcer voice over), “The blueprint to beat the Denver Broncos”.

Chicago -13 over Cleveland – My goodness, has a team ever been beaten by 42 points one week and then made a 13 favorite the next. That would take my research team a couple weeks to come up with the answer, so I will go out on a limb with it hasn’t happen very often. Welcome to Cleveland Brown football!

But it might be getting better for the Browns, I heard this week the fans are planning to stage a “late arrival” to the Monday Night game against the Ravens as a protest of “we’re not going to take it” to the Browns ownership. Yup that is a start, but really the only way out of this is to re-locate and start following a new team. The problem isn’t Browns ownership, it’s Cleveland!

St. Louis +4 over Detroit – This is the Rams Super Bowl. A loss here will put the Rams in serious danger of becoming the second team in as many seasons to finish 0-16. I sense a trend and we quite possibly could have two 0-16 teams this year as the Bucs have a worse schedule remaining than the Rams. Great, the Rams will finish 0-16 and still not get the #1 pick in the draft. Of course, with the way they draft they will find a way to screw it up regardless of where they pick.

NY Jets -3 over Miami – It’s a banner day for the “Big Apple”, the Jets roll the Dolphins and …

NY Giants -1 over Philadelphia – The Giants pick up a huge win over the Eagles and …

The MFYankees take a 3-1 lead over the Phillies, all but writing an end to the 2009 World Series. Sad but true. One thing seemingly will never change, however, the Knicks – losers to the 76ers on Saturday night.

Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville – Vince Young to the rescue! Part of me wonders if Jeff Fisher’s, who essentially was forced to play Young, undying loyalty to Kerry Collins will cause him to tell his tackles to miss a couple blocks or if the game plan will be so bad VY will fail. And why are the Titans favored in this game? For what it’s worth, I have picked the Titans to win each of their games this year.

San Diego -17 over Oakland – So maybe the Chargers are coming out of this early season funk. The odds-makers clearly think they will – whoa, 17 points. But if you break down like this, it’s not so hard to take the Chargers.

SD 1^st possession – tough 10 play drive ends with a field goal, 3-0

Oak 1^st possession – tough three and out

SD 2^nd possession – 5 play drive for a TD, 10-0

Oak 2^nd possession – 2 play drive ends with an interception

{The Raiders defense officially checks out of this game right about now}

SD 3^rd possession – 2 play drive for a TD, 17-0

 

See before you’ve settled in for the late afternoon games, the Chargers have already pushed the spread and the Raiders defense is in “don’t get hurt” mode.

 

Green Bay -3 over Minnesota – Favre Bowl II! I will be very interested to see how the Packers fans treat old numero four. What would be great is to see Favre begin this game the way he ended his last game at Lambeau, with a terrible interception.

Carolina +10 over Arizona – Is it possible that the Cardinals could actually lose this game? Yes, definitely, for a variety reasons:

1. The Cardinals seem to lead the league in letdown performances. They win in New York last weekend, they lose at home to a terrible football team
2. The Panthers loss in the playoffs to the Cardinals could be viewed as the catalyst for their poor start this season. Yea, I know that is an understatement, but the reality the Panthers could save their season with a win this weekend.
3. The Panthers have confidence in UOP stadium. They won here two years ago with the corpse of Vinny Testeverde, so you know they believe they can win with Jake Delhomme.

Atlanta +11 over New Orleans – The Saints/Dolphins game played out pretty much like I thought it would except for the fact that the Dolphins decided to crap their pants in the second half. My favorite part was the two Drew Brees quarterback sneaks for TD’s. So, if you were playing against Brees in fantasy but were only able to watch the game on your phone then you felt pretty good when you scrolled down to see that Brees had not thrown a TD. However, you scrolled past P. Thomas and M. Bell, no touchdowns. No biggie, it was probably a fluke defensive TD or a Heath Evans. “&%#^$*~ &%#^, it was Brees!!”

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-5-1

2009 Record: 54-48-1

Last Week: $-377

Bank: $9,058 ($-942)

Bets:

As mentioned above, I am not feeling it this week, so rather than throw money away I will abstain.

Total Risked: $0

 

Tuesday Morning Fantasy Headlines – Week 7

In this day and age when print news is becoming a dinosaur, Unfrozen Caveman still enjoys walking out in front of his stone palace to retrieve the newspaper. Once Caveman finishes reading about how he dominated his opponent in the Banner League, he rolls the paper into a tightly wound club and drives home-made stone nails     through the middle thus forming a spiked bat. He uses that spiked bat to un-mercifully beat Evil Beagles.

Land Shark sneakily attempts to win with an illegal lineup. When called out, Shark, though a callous eating machine resists the temptation to devour Beantown Warpigs and pulls McNabb out of his lineup. Then eats Warpigs anyway!

Don’t Mess with the Rohan takes a break from complaining about playing the top scorer “every single week” and defeats a low scoring Tazmanian team.

DA BOYZ FROM NYC manage to defeat the frenetically free falling Pherguson’s
Philly Phantic despite only having four Jets in their starting lineup.

In the game of the week and the surest sign of what goes around, comes around, Kristi Kremes deals Hulkamaniacs a crushing defeat when Brian Westbrook is kneeled in the head, leaving after a paltry 1.3 points. Still, Kremes needs garbage time magic from Jason Campbell to squeeze out the win.

In a see-saw battle with Filthy Little Monkeys, Desert Pimps survives as Monkeys soil themselves.

Vince’s Barbershop drop Green Meanie’s and leave him screaming for a “screaming green meanie.”

 

 

NFL Week 7 Picks

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like the head coaches in the NFL are getting stupider by the second. I think I am going to have to put together a column to commemorating the piss-poor coaching in the NFL. And to think these guys all make $1 million plus dollars, well except for Tom Cable, who I cannot take seriously considering he looks like Dan Connor’s (John Goodman) identical twin. Last weekend I witnessed three of the most egregious errors a head coach:

Exhibit A (play-by-play from NFL.COM): Brad Childress

Minnesota Vikings at 03:37

Your goal is simple: 1. score points to win the game and 2. leave no time on the clock.

 

1-10-MIN 20 (3:37) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 18-S.Rice to MIN 24 for 4 yards (41-F.Walker).

2-6-MIN 24 (2:59) 4-B.Favre pass deep right to 18-S.Rice to BLT 18 for 58 yards (41-F.Walker). Penalty on BLT-41-F.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

 

Perfect, now you’re in comfortable field goal range. Now the goal should to get one first down, force the Ravens to burn their remaining timeouts and bleed the clock.

 

1-10-BAL 18 (2:51) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to BLT 20 for -2 yards (56-T.Gooden).

Timeout #2 by BLT at 02:46.

 

Nothing wrong with this call, but it went south.

 

2-12-BAL 20 (2:46) 28-A.Peterson left guard to BLT 17 for 3 yards (95-J.Johnson, 52-R.Lewis).

Timeout #3 by BLT at 02:30.

 

Here is where Childress went wrong, effectively without a first down you’re in the position of leading by less than a field goal with over two minutes to play. You have to run your normal offense here, meaning you let Favre throw the football.

 

3-9-BAL 17 (2:30) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson right guard to BLT 14 for 3 yards (52-R.Lewis).

Two-Minute Warning

 

So here is what Childress is telling everyone – I am comfortable kicking the field goal to give me the lead and leave the game in the hands of my defense, never mind that my defense hasn’t stopped the Ravens the entire second half. And what exactly did you go get Brett Favre for if you are going to play like this?

 

Sure enough the Ravens got into reasonable field goal range, but Childress was bailed out by the miss, this time! Mark these words Viking fan – Childress is going to cost you in a big spot!

Exhibit B: Andy Reid

I will spare you the play-by-play and focus on the timeout with 2:02 left in the 4^th quarter. And how many 1^st graders can answer the question – what can an offense trying to burn the clock do with 2:02 left in the 4^th quarter? Anything they want, because the clock is stopping with the two minute warning, so that timeout gives the opposing coach the option to throw a pass, even with Jamarcus Russell, without stopping the clock.

Exhibit C: Dick Jauron

A win over the Jets is a season saver, right? The difference between 2-4 and 1-5 is huge, trust me, 1-5 it’s over but at 2-4 and owning a road win over a division opponent, you’re in business. So when you get the chance you go for it. Not Jauron. He preferred to settle for a long field goal against the wind in the Meadowlands.

The fun begins with the Bills facing a 2^nd and 2 at the Jets 29 with two minutes to play and two timeouts. The results – four plays, two timeouts, one yard and one missed field goal. With 1:19 left the Bills gained a first down at the Jets 26, they ran one more play for -2 yards and kicked the field goal on 2 and 12. Inexplicably! It worked out for Jauron, but clearly this guy is over-matched.

Enough about incompetent millionaire head coaches and on to the picks, I am hovering around medirocrity, but the games this week seem to be in English instead of the normal Chinese (for the record I cannot read Chinese).

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Games I love:

San Francisco +3 over Houston – The Texans have lost two games this season at their opponent goal-line. Somehow, some way this team finds ways to migrate to, at best, mediocrity. Plus, this 49er team is for real and will harass Schuab all day long.

Kansas City +4.5 over San Diego – My favorite play from the Chargers/Broncos Monday night game was the third down and goal run to Sproles, with Topmlinson on the bench. Yep, that play worked one time, against a terrible defense and now Norv is confused as to why is hasn’t worked since. He tried it against the Ravens (good run defense) and now the Broncos (good run defense). Keep up the good work, Norv. What is more surprising – that Norv continues to run that play or that he didn’t show up as Exhibit D above?

Indianapolis -14 over St. Louis – I cannot believe this spread is only 14. So, let’s assume the Colts only put up 28 points the Rams still need to put up two touchdowns to push. Given the fact that the Rams are audtioning Henry Ellard and Flipper Anderson for WR, I just cannot see them scoring two touchdowns and let’s get real, the Colts will score at least one defensive TD, Manning will go nuts with four scores, throw in one Joseph Addai score and we are looking at a 42-10 final.

New England -14.5 over Tampa Bay – The Patriots are back in full ‘eff you mode after shellacking the Titans last week 59-0. I guess choking away the Super Bowl and seeing Brady get knocked out for a full year isn’t enough evidence of some kind karmatic, “what goes around comes around.” So, this game will seem more like a Nebraska/Iowa State game, uh hang on, more like a Nebraksa/Western South Texas State.

Pittsburgh -6 over Minnesota – Let’s recap the Vikings season so far, they have beaten three truly bad teams – Browns, Lions and Rams. They won with two miracles – one on the Greg Lewis catch and the other when the Ravens missed a field goal. And they beat the Packers at home. Whoop-de-do! It’s judgment day for Favrah and the Vikes.

Green Bay -8 over Cleveland – How about this two-team parlay – this Packers -8 and “The Flu” -6, both over the Browns. I’ll ask the same question, I posed about the Rams/Colts game, how will the Browns score enough points to keep this game close? Exactly!

Carolina -7 over Buffalo – Trent Edwards is not playing this week, but he has still been a very, very valuable for the Bills preparation for the Panthers, he has simulated Jake Delhomme by throwing passes to the Bills defensive backs!

I watched Thomas Jones run through the Bills defensive like he was DeAngelo Williams, so I am guessing the real DeAngelo will go crazy this week. Here are some things I wish I could bet on this week:

DeAngelo Williams has a 40+ yard TD run

Both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams run for 100+ yards

Steve Smith will have less than .5 receptions

 

Oakland +6.5 over NY Jets – Bold prediction – Michael Huff will have more receptions (interceptions) than all the Raiders wide receivers combined.

Cincinnati -1 over Chicago – The Bears are the 2009 version of the 2008 Packers. At the end of the season, we will scratch our heads while wondering how the Bears finished 6-10. To make matters worse they will probably end up out-scoring their opponents, which is a sure sign of a team that finds ways to lose.

Atlanta +4.5 over Dallas – Smells like the “field goal” game of the week. I just cannot see the Cowboys slowing down the Falcons. And I hate betting on the Cowboys, because at some point during the game the camera will catch a shot of Wade Phillips with the “aw shucks” look and I will instantaneously know I am doomed.

Miami +6.5 over New Orleans – I am loving me some of the Dolphins. The Saints have burnt me in the past and they have more weapons than Michael Douglas’ character in Falling Down but you have to beware of these out of conference road games. In effect, they’re meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Plus, the Falcons are next up on the Saints schedule.

Arizona +7 over NY Giants – I am sick and tired of the lack of respect for the NFC West. But in fairness, the West coast teams have played the part of the, uh, female dog to the East coast team. That ends Sunday, Cardinals win outright!

Philadelphia -7 over Washington – A mere a month after serving Jello cups to the elderly, Sherman Lewis is now calling plays for the Redskins. I literally think Sherm is going to “Madden” easy call mode – either Run or Pass. Yea, I am giving them very little chance of winning this game.

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-7

2009 Record: 47-43

Last Week: $1,820

Bank: $9,435 ($-565)

Bets:

Miami +6.5, Pittsburgh -6, San Francisco +3 – $550 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Miami +6.5, Pittsburgh -6, San Francisco +3 – $300 each (3 total)

Total Risked: $2550

 

Tuesday Morning Headlines

This week was the highest scoring week in the history of the Banner League, with an average score of 132.49 which betters the 125.88 from week 7 last year. In addition, Land Shark put up the single highest scoring game in Banner history with a 205.66. Imagine what he could do if he cared!

Land Shark and Don’t Mess with the Rohan celebrate together the Raiders victory over the lifeless, worthless Eagles, but Land Shark double-crossed him and bit off his head.

Unfrozen Caveman runs his winning streak to seven by barely breaking a sweat in an easy win over a very soft Kristi Kremes team.

Evil Beagles defecate on Desert Pimps turf thus causing a slowdown in “business”, while Beantown Warpigs spank the Filthy Little Monkeys.

DA BOYZ FROM NYC avoid a complete lost weekend for the city of New York (Jets, Giants and Yanks) by shaving Tazmanians by 1.8 points or 18 rushing yards by LT or 45 yards passing by Phillip Rivers or an extra couple feet on a pass to a wide open LT heading for the end zone.

In the Stink Bowl, Vince’s Babershop, the 4^th lowest scoring team, defeats Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic, the 2^nd lowest scoring team. The Philly Phanatic is clearly pre-occupied by the late inning theatrics by the hometown Phillies. Here’s hoping they can keep it up, if the Yankees don’t choke again in the ALCS.

Green Meanies survives the second highest scoring performance ever in the Banner league by Tom Brady to Body Slam the Hulkamaniacs.

NFL 2009 – Week 6 Picks

The Caveman is on vacation exploring new technologies like the microwave and remote control, but he still managed to put together a quick version of the week 6 picks.

As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Games I love:

Houston +5 (Cincinnati) – This will be a huge letdown week for the Bengals this week.

Jacksonville -9 (St. Louis) – It is always a gamble laying big points with the Jags, but have you seen the Rams?

Baltimore +3 (Minnesota) – Let’s see how grandpa Favre can handle the Ravens defense.

Kansas City +6.5 (Washington) – I like the Chiefs as an outright winner this week.

Philadelphia -14 (Oakland) – Have you seen the Raiders?

Seattle -3 (Arizona) – Seattle re-emerged as a contender in the division last weekend. This weekend they can put themselves in control of the division. Yea, I am considering the 49ers a pretender.

NY Jets -10 (Buffalo) – I would like to rewind to the first game of the year and give the Bills the win over the Patriots, does that change this team? I actually thought this was a decent team.

The rest:

Green Bay -13.5 (Detroit) – The Lions are scrappy, but without Megatron they don’t have the firepower.

New Orleans -3 (NY Giants) – This game is probably a field goal either way, I will take the home team Saints, because I am guessing Eli’s foot hasn’t gotten any better considering the number of “Giants 10″ dolls that have been getting stuck in the foot with a needle this past week.

Cleveland +14 (Pittsburgh) – I literally just typed this (removing the backspaces) “Pitts Clevelan Pittsburgh -1 Cleveland +14″. Yea, I have no clue here.

Tampa Bay +3 (Carolina) – Is Carolina any good? No, they shouldn’t be giving any team points on the road.

New England -9.5 (Tennessee) – It’s one thing if Vince Young is going to get the start, but to continue to bring him off the bench is a recipe for disaster. The backup quarterback is never prepared to play like the starter.

Chicago +3.5 (Atlanta) – The Falcon bandwagon is over flowing this week, but closer inspection reveals that the 49ers are a tailor made matchup for Atlanta. Chicago not so much.

San Diego -3.5 (Denver) – Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the Broncos went 16-0? I started to come around on them this week, which almost certainly means they will get crushed.

Season Results:

Last Week: 7-7

2009 Record: 40-36

Last Week: $-1,650

Bank: $7,615 ($-2,385)

Bets:

Kansas City and Houston to win – $100 each to win $200 each

Kansas City and Houston 2-team parlay to win – $50 to win $400

Seattle -3, Baltimore +3, Kansas City +6.5, Houston +5 – $440 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Seattle -3, Baltimore +3, Kansas City +6.5, Houston +5 – $200 each (6 total)

Total Risked: $3210

 

Tuesday Morning Fantasy Headlines – Week 5

The Banner Fantasy Football League was treated to a historic event this weekend as Unfrozen Caveman stomped Green Meanies to become the first franchise to record at least one regular season victory over every other franchise.

And it’s that time of year again when we pay our respect (or lack of) to the Red Sox passing. IN (dis) honor of 2009 Red Sox here are the remaining headlines:

Don’t mess with the Rohan survives the “regression to the mean” by Willis McGahee (we told you to sell high) to beat Filthy Little Monkeys, made a egregious tactical by starting a non-starting quarterback, much like the Red Sox front office error this past off-season of thinking David Ortiz wasn’t finished.

Pherguson’s Philly Phanatic loses a close battle with Hulkamaniacs as Matt Hasslebeck watches helplessly as Trent Edwards stinks up the joint, much as I watched helplessly as the parade of suck circled from the dugout to home plate and back to the dugout.

In a savvy move, Evil Beagles sagaciously bench Jerricho Cotchery, much like the equally wise Terry Francona benched the “bag of bones” Jason Varitek. However, both masters of their domain watch powerlessly as DeSean Jackson for Beagles and Victor Martinez for Francona disappear without a trace . Beantown Warpigs takes advantage to drop the Beagles.

Desert Pimps and Jonathan Crapelbon combined for a messy scene as both crap the bed Sunday, Crapelbon to the Angels and Pimps to Kristi Kremes.

Vince’s Barbershop look on in disbelief, much like Sox fans are befuddled by the “punch and Judy” Red Sox hitting, as they score the second highest points but lose to the high scoring Tazmanians.

And finally, the DA Boyz from NYC are dropped to a league worst 1-7 by a suddenly staunch Land Shark. At the end of the Da Boyz’ roster, similar to the Red Sox, just couldn’t compete with the more athletic, hungrier and physically more talented Land Shark team.

 

NFL 2009 – Week 5 Picks

I am still befuddled at this whole Brett Favre with the Vikings thing. From what I can gather after talking to several Packer fans and listening to the media coverage, most Packer fans are “ok” seeing Favre in Viking purple.

This is most perplexing to me, since the closest I could come to a personal comparison is Roger Clemens (ALERT: Crazed tangent rant ahead). Being a huge Red Sox fan, Raj was immediately one of my favorite players with the first pitch he threw for the Sox in 1984. From 1986 through 1992, Roger collect three Cy Young awards, lead the league in ERA four times, won 17 plus games in every season and won one league MVP (rarely given to a pitcher).

Beginning in 1993, Roger began to break down. He was injured for parts of the next three seasons and most of this was blamed on his off-season work ethic. In short, Roger had grown weary of the negativity surrounding the Red Sox and the team’s poor front office. His performance suffered over the next four years, so much so that the front office decided against a new contract in 1997 and let him walk gambling that he was in the “twilight” of his career. While as we now know, he was in the twilight, but he decided to work out extra hard (aka use roids) that off-season.

Clemens spent two seasons dominating baseball with Toronto Blue Jays before forcing a trade to the, gulp, Yankees. It was bad enough seeing the “I found the fountain of youth” Roger in Toronto, enduring him his return to Fenway in 1997 in which after striking out his 16^th Red Sox of the game, he walked off the field glaring up to the management box where former Sox GM Dan Duquette was sitting but now Sox fans had to see “one of our own” suiting up in pinstripes. The minute Clemens through his first pitch for the Yankees, he was dead to me! He was dead to the majority of Red Sox fans, if not all and at that moment he became soul-less, a man without a team – Blue Jay fan doesn’t remember him and Yankee fan used him, but never embraced him.

Doesn’t that sound vaguely familiar to Favre? He has allowed his discontent with Packer management cloud his decision making process and do the unthinkable. There are more than a few individuals who believe that Favre setup this entire scenario where he would ultimately play with the Vikings. That might be a bit of the stretch, but what’s the old saying “hell hath no fury like an athlete scorned” or something like that.

Yet Packer fan not only seems fine with him playing in Minnesota, but a few Cheeseheads actually seem to be rooting for him. I don’t get it! The minute he donned the purple #4 jersey, he would have been dead to me. I would have burned every bit Favre memorabilia I owned, urinated on the ashes and then flushed them down the toilet.

Tragically, this scenario speaks volumes about the current state of the NFL and the flaws in the system. Players come and go like there are working a contract job. Fans are often left having to choose between a player and their team.

Still, however, the Packers allowed Favre to do his annual off-season waffling for at least two seasons while they received no return on their first-round investment of Aaron Rodgers. When they pressed Favre for a firm decision in March of 2008, he told them he was retiring and they moved on without him. Had Brett decided he still wanted to play football, I have no doubts the Packers would have welcomed him back as their starting quarterback.

The bottom line – I believe the Packers front office was more than fair with Favre and Favre has tainted his time with the Packers with his actions over the last two year. And Packer fan should wish that, as Ray Finkel’s (of Ace Ventura, Pet Detective fame) mother put it, “Brett Favre should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell…”.

The story for me last week was not the mediocre 8-6 record, but the fact I hit all three bets and collected a nice hefty $3,360. As always the lines from the Hard Rock Casino and are courtesy of covers.com.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9) – It has been my belief that the Bengals are starting to get respect and that the odds-makers realize that this Bengals team is good. This line is an indication the strength of this Ravens team. Baltimore’s play in New England made me a huge believer, in spite of the fact that I would like to tear a hole in John Harbuagh’s face, due to the fact that Ray Rice doesn’t get any goal-line action.

Pick: Baltimore 27 Cincinnati 17

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6) – Can I punt here? Someone aptly described this game as the “depressed bowl”. These two teams have combined for more heartbreak than the Spears siblings.

Pick: Cleveland 27 Buffalo 24

Washington @ Carolina (-4) – Ugh, if you haven’t been to church since September 6^th, this is the week to reacquaint yourself. Trust me you aren’t missing a thing with these early games this week.

Can Carolina please get their running game going? I need J. Stewart to pile up some fantasy stats today.

Pick: Carolina 16 Washington 6

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit – Nice year for Detroit, aye! They might have felt the economy worse than any other city in the US and then the Tigers fall off the map in the last week of the season. Then they have to endure the Lions and to make matters worse, the Red Wings are in last place. “Buffalo and Cleveland, we have a new member today, please give a warm welcome to Detroit.”

Pick: Pittsburgh 30 Detroit 17

Dallas (-8) @ Kansas City – And you thought I was joking about the early games. . . Ok, so if you’re not a church gore, this is your weekend to prove to your significant other that you’re not all about football, hang that picture, vacuum or do some yard work. Trust me that will buy Sundays of being planted in the same spot for 10+ hours until Thanksgiving.

Why is this Cowboy team favored by 8 points on the road to anyone?

Pick: Dallas 21 Kansas City 17

Oakland @ NY Giants (-15.5) – I joked this week that brutal winds in the Meadowlands might actually improve Jamarcus Russell’s accuracy.

Of all these early game huge spreads – this one smells. And this could be the one mammoth upset can cleans out an entire survivor pool.

Pick: NY Giants 23 Oakland 20

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-14.5) – I would love to see the DirecTV commercials with Eli and Peyton Manning pumping week 5 of the 2009 season.

Eli – “You could’ve flipped over to see the Eagles go up 41-7, but you couldn’t because you have cable and you only get one game.”

Peyton – “You’re bored with the Giants 6-3 tussle with the Raiders. Well, if you had DirecTV you could watch Tony Romo under achieve against the Chiefs or Minnesota suffer the dreaded Monday night hangover but still win by 30 against the Rams.”

Pick: Philadelphia 34 Tampa Bay 14

Minnesota (-10.5) @ St. Louis – This is the most absurd line of the week! But the odds-makers are using the “Monday night emotional win, short week, on the road, sandwich game” approach. So, all of that makes sense – the Vikings spent a lot of emotion and energy beating the Packers, it is a short week, they have to travel and they play Baltimore next week.

But it’s the Rams. The Rams have a glorified special teamer starting at middle linebacker for them, who is best known because of his B-List celebrity dad. In fact when I watched this guy in college, his best move was jumping on the pile 10 yards down the field, to which the announcers would scream his name as though he were Dick Butkus.

The moral of the story – Adrian Peterson only needs to be about 25% today to score three times and lead the Vkings to a blow out win.

Pick: Minnesota 28 St. Louis 10

Atlanta @ San Francisco (-2.5) – I told myself that I would stop analyzing the lines in a, mostly, feebly attempt to get in head of the odds-maker, but I cannot help myself. Anytime a line is -2.5 it is like a free invitation to bet on the home team. After all, 2.5 is pretty much “pick the winner”, right. And we know how easy it is to pick the winner of each NFL game.

So, against my better judgment, I am making this pick solely on the fact that taking the 49ers is too easy. There might be a little sprinkle of “I hate the Niners” mixed in here as well. I’ll never learn. . .

Pick: Atlanta 23 San Francisco 17

Houston @ Arizona (-5.5) – This is a very important game for me personally, since it will decide where I spend four Sunday afternoons in the next two months.

What I love about the NFL most – it is as predictable as a cat? There should be 60+ points scored in this game, right? Think about the talent on offense – three of the 10 best receivers in the NFL, two more receivers that crack the top thirty, two of the best quarterbacks, one above average running back and ne very good tight end. Mix in two terrible defenses and we will have ourselves an old fashioned AFL shootout. No less than 10 players will be started and counted on heavily in all fantasy leagues today.

Wrong! I am willing to bet that both coaches are thinking they don’t want to get into a shootout, so they will pull the reins in on their offenses and shorten the game.

If that happens and the Cardinals lose, you mark down 10-11-2009 as the beginning of the end for Ken Whisenhunt as Cardinals coach. Now, he isn’t going to get fired this year but a loss today in game where the offense fails to show, again, will start turning fans against him. Once the fans turn in Phoenix, they find other things to do on Sundays than head over to the gang-infested Westcyyyde. That translates to loss of revenue for the money-grubbing Bidwells, which fuels any and all football decisions they make.

Pick: Houston 13 Arizona 10

New England (-3) @ Denver – The odds-makers still aren’t a believer in the Broncos, huh? I have exhibit A for you – the Broncos back seven got away with murder against the Cowboys last week. I counted at least five egregious illegal contact penalties that went un-called. Until the refs start calling those penalties the Broncos defense will look un-beatable.

Pick: Denver 23 New England 20

Jacksonville @ Seattle (-1) – Matt Hasselbeck is back in the Seahawks lineup and, provided he can make it through the entire game, I expect them to look like the team I picked to win the NFC West.

Pick: Seattle 31 Jacksonville 24

Indianapolis (-4) @ Tennessee – This is the last week I allow Tennessee to burn me. I am going with the third consecutive “must win game” for the Titans. No really, this time I am serious, it is a must win situation for the Titans.

Pick: Tennessee 28 Indianapolis 25

NY Jets (-2) @ Miami – This should be fun to watch, kind of like watching grass grow. Miami has to be able to run the ball to win, I highly doubt they will be able to against the Jets.

Pick: NY Jets 16 Miami 10

Season Results:

Last Week: 8-6

2009 Record: 33-29

Last Week: $3,360

Bank: $9,265 ($-735)

Bets:

Houston +5.5, Seattle -1, Carolina -4 – $550 each

Robin Robin 2-team parlay – Houston +5.5, Seattle -1, Carolina -4 – $300 each

3-team parlay – Houston +5.5, Seattle -1, Carolina -4 – $150

Total Risked: $2700